FTA Monthly Fuel Market News

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1 FTA February 2018 Higher oil price and weak pound pushing up diesel prices From a UK perspective, Sterling was significantly weakened on the foreign exchange markets following the vote to leave the European Union. Sterling has traded at 30-year lows against the US Dollar and is currently around 7 per cent lower than before the referendum vote. Oil is priced in US Dollars so the increase in the price per barrel has been enhanced for UK importers by the fall in the value of Sterling, which has also affected diesel prices. There were year-on-year increases of almost 4 per cent for bulk diesel prices, while at the same time the price of Brent Crude rose by almost a quarter to a monthly average of $69.08 a barrel (bbl) in January Oil and Diesel (monthly averages) January 2018 January 2017 % change Brent Crude ($/bbl) $69.08/bbl $55.51/bbl 24.44% Forecourt Diesel (p per litre) ppl ppl 2.27% Sterling/Dollar exchange rate $ $ % Sterling/Euro exchange rate % Source: Financial Times, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), European Central Bank The outlook indicates that the year-on-year Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate has improved. Since July 2017, the exchange rate has stabilised compared to a year earlier and recovered some ground. Comparing prices on 5 February 2018 to the same day last year, a barrel of oil rose by over 21 per cent when priced in US Dollars and by almost 8 per cent when priced in Sterling. Sterling gaining ground against the US Dollar dampened oil prices increase in January 2018 Source: Financial Times, European Central Bank The price of oil per barrel rose steadily during January 2018 finishing at $69.05 a barrel at the end of the month. Oversupply remains an issue and OPEC and non-opec members agreed at the end of November 2017 to extend the cuts in production to the end of December Oil prices rose during the month due to the production cut deal but higher US oil production has dampened the increases to a degree.

2 All Fuels and Oil Monthly Update Oil price ($ per barrel) trends Although the price for a barrel of oil has risen compared to a year ago, it is comparatively low (when priced in US Dollars) relative to This is mainly due to massive oversupply and weakening global demand in Europe and most especially from China. China is the world's secondlargest consumer of oil after the USA. Any upward pressure of global uncertainty is currently tempered by the excess of oil on the market and the move by the US towards local fracking and natural gas and away from oil imports as its main source of energy. Until late 2016, OPEC had not been able to agree to any cuts in production to reduce the oversupply. The main reason for this was Iran s intention to increase its production to pre-sanction levels whilst other members were keen for all OPEC members to cut production. Agreement was reached for Iran to freeze production levels whilst other members cut their production. Libya and Nigeria were exempted from any cuts in production. Is the movement in the price of oil reflected in bulk diesel prices? The relationship between the price of crude oil and the bulk price of diesel is complex. The price of Brent Crude rose almost a quarter in January 2018 compared to a year ago, while there are year-on-year increases of almost 4 per cent for bulk diesel prices. Because oil is priced in US Dollars, as Sterling gets weaker, the cost of importing oil and fuel has risen in the UK. The substantial falls in Sterling outlined above inflated the increase in the price of oil and the price paid by UK diesel consumers ( 1 buys $1.38 on average in January 2018 up over 12 per cent compared to a year ago, but down just over 4 per cent compared to 2 years ago). Fuel duty at pence per litre (ppl) dampens the impact of movements in the cost of a barrel of oil on the commodity price of diesel, reflecting the fact that fuel duty is specified in absolute terms (ie in pence per litre) rather than ad valorem (according to value). Therefore, the year-onyear increase in the bulk price of diesel, which includes fuel duty, was almost 4 per cent in January 2018, compared to the just over 10 per cent year-on-year increase in the commodity price of diesel, which does not include fuel duty. Percentage monthly change in crude oil and diesel compared to January 2017 Source: Financial Times, Portland Analytics Ltd, European Central Bank 2

3 Recent trends in bulk (contract) diesel Source: Portland Analytics Ltd Diesel prices remain above unleaded petrol prices in January 2018 Both petrol and diesel wholesale prices rose during January The wholesale price of diesel remains above unleaded petrol in January At the end of January 2018, pump prices for diesel (excluding VAT) were 3.02ppl higher than unleaded petrol on forecourts throughout the UK. Forecourt fuel prices rise in January 2018 Source: BEIS 3

4 Recent trends in crude oil and wholesale fuel prices Source: Financial Times Marine and Aviation Fuels Jet fuel (Kerosene) Recent trends in jet fuel (kerosene) prices Source: Financial Times Jet fuel averaged $521 per tonne in January It rose in February 2017 before generally falling back until the end of Q Since then it has risen sharply in price. Jet fuel averaged $654 per tonne in January 2018, 25 per cent higher compared to a year ago. 4

5 Marine bunker (Heavy Fuel Oil) Recent trends in marine bunker (heavy fuel oil) prices Source: INSEE Marine bunker (heavy fuel oil) averaged $332 per tonne in December It rose until February It then generally fell back until the end of Q Since then it has risen sharply in price. Marine bunker (heavy fuel oil) averaged $379 per tonne in Decemr 2017, 14 per cent higher compared to a year ago. 5

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