SS GEN-02 Business Focus with Simulation
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1 Slide 1
2 SS GEN-02 Business Focus with Simulation Dr. Martin A. Turk / #SoftwareRevolution /InvensysVideos /InvensysOpsMgmt 2013 Invensys. All Rights Reserved. The names, logos, and taglines identifying the products and services of Invensys are proprietary marks of Invensys or its subsidiaries. All third party trademarks and service marks are the proprietary marks of their respective owners.
3 Session Description Learn how to build a business case for your advanced application program so that you align with your company s business objectives to improve the odds of getting the program approved. Also, ensure that your program is successful by quantifying and measuring the value. Slide 3
4 Agenda Industry Challenges The Situation at the Panville Refinery of Hook Refining Ltd. The Problems Facing Hook Refining Ltd. Possible Advanced Applications to Help the Refinery Solve its Problems Building the Business Case for an Advanced Application Program The Results Slide 4
5 Industry Challenges Licence to Operate Safety regulations Risk of non-compliance Environmental regulations EPA regulation of CO 2 emissions Major incidents Margin Fines, damages, share value Changing properties of crudes Evolving product slate specifications E15 fuel Tier 3 gasoline Gasoline / diesel imbalance Energy cost and variability Cost of carbon emissions Text in red font = Challenges that can be directly addressed by Invensys solutions Utilization Global competition Super large, grassroots refineries Ability to process advantaged feedstocks Reliability Older plant & equipment Availability Longer turnaround intervals Capacity stretch CapEx & OpEx solutions Small to negative market growth in OECD countries Other Ageing workforce Loss of knowledge and experience Uncompetitive assets Capex availability Slide 5
6 The Situation at the Panville Refinery of Hook Refining Ltd. Hook s Panville refinery has a 3 rd -quartile Solomon performance ranking among its peer group with energy consumption greater than the industry average It traditionally processed heavy, sour imported crude The crude feedstock mix of the refinery is changing due to access to lower cost lighter, sweeter domestic crude Gasoline demand has been consistently dropping The most profitable product for Hook Refining is diesel fuel, so a hydrocracker was recently installed to increase diesel production There has been continued downward pressure on refining margin due to: Severe competition from modern, foreign export refineries for sales of gasoline to Latin America and diesel to Europe High energy costs If the profitability of the Panville refinery cannot be improved over the next 24 months there is a good chance that the refinery will be sold or shutdown Slide 6
7 Configuration of the Panville Refinery Slide 7
8 The Problems Facing Hook Refining Ltd. Increasing Customization of Products Optimizing Product Mix in Response to Increased Demand Variability Growth in Hydrogen Demand due to Ultra-Low Sulfur Specs Alternative Fuels
9 Possible Advanced Applications to Help the Refinery Solve its Problems A joint Operations and Engineering team was commissioned to determine most costeffective approaches for increasing refinery profitability. The team recommended a phased program to implement refinery-wide Advanced Process Control, Online Performance Management and Real-Time Optimization. A pilot OTS project was proposed for the Crude Unit to determine is this approach is cost-effective and feasible for quickly getting new operators trained as replacements for retirees. A multi-year refinery-wide Energy Management project was also proposed Slide 9
10 Building the Business Case for an Advanced Application Program Develop assumptions Establish key financial parameters and project ROI hurdle rate Identify potential sources of benefits associated with proposed advanced application projects Follow three steps to determine the potential value of the proposed projects: 1. High-level ( back of the envelope ) benefit estimates (±50%) based on industry- accepted benefit factors (e.g., typical benefits of closed-loop real time optimization are at least 10 /Bbl on Crude Units and 18 /Bbl on FCC Units) 2. More detailed cost and benefit estimates / ROI calculations with increased accuracy (±30%) 3. Detailed on-site study with analysis of actual unit operating data to establish funding grade estimates of costs and benefits (±10%) Sequence the projects to ensure successful, quick wins Start with a pilot project (e.g., ARPM on the CDU highest volume unit with no chemical reactions) Move on to the reactive processes, typically starting with the largest units Slide 10
11 Assumptions, Financial Model Parameters & Sources of Benefits Assumptions: Average on-stream factor (%) = 88% Average capacity utilization (%) = 85% Average refining margin ($/Bbl) = $7.50/Bbl Average price of crude oil ($/Bbl) = $110/Bbl Average price of natural gas ($/MMBTU) = $3.50/MMBTU Average price of electricity ($/MWH) = $50/MWh Typical refinery energy mix: 70% fuel gas, 25% natural gas, 5% electricity 1 Hook Refining APC/RTO support $150K/year Each project starts with a benefits study RTO applications on conversion units use ExxonMobil reactor models All individual projects with a simple payback period 3 years will be excluded from the final results Default Financial Model Parameters: Discount Rate = 10% Income Tax Rate = 40% Depreciation = 5-Year Straight Line Typical Sources of Benefits: Optimized utilization of refinery assets Early identification and correction of equipment and/or process problems to avoid uneconomic operation, process upsets or plant trips Improved yields of more valuable products Reduced product giveaway Faster response to changes in feedstock properties Faster response to changes in market conditions product demand and pricing structure Improved capacity utilization/greater throughput Reduced energy consumption per unit of throughput Slide 11
12 Overview of the Tool Used to Perform the Cost-Benefit Analysis The cost-benefit analyzer uses the Oil & Gas Journal 2013 Worldwide Refining Survey as the source of refinery process unit types and nameplate capacities The cost-benefit analyzer performs a true discounted cash flow analysis based on user specified financial parameters (e.g., income tax rate, discount rate, depreciation schedule) Estimates of project costs and project durations are based on Invensys experience at implementing advanced applications in petroleum refineries Each project starts with a benefit study to determine the economic feasibility of the project The user can select to either capitalize or expense the required investments software and technology license fees, computer hardware, client training, implementation engineering, startup engineering, annual software maintenance and support The user specifies the starting months of the various projects included in the analysis Benefit estimates are based on published data and Invensys experience Upon completion of a project the associated benefit is assumed to ramp from 0 to its full value based on a realistic, pre-defined ramp period Published data is used for estimates of average energy consumption by process unit type (e.g., MMBtu/Bbl of throughput) Slide 12
13 Advanced Applications Included in the Analysis Crude Distillation Unit Operator Training Simulator provides operators with the knowledge and skills needed to quickly and correctly handle process problems, thereby reducing unplanned downtime All Refinery Processes Advanced Process Control significantly reduces variability in control loops, thereby enabling reduced raw material consumption, increased yields of more valuable products and lower energy usage On-Line Performance Management monitors process performance in real-time to determine how closely actual conditions match target values for early detection and correction of negative deviations in process yields, energy consumption, etc. Real Time Process Optimization (with ExxonMobil reactor models) uses information about process constraints, ambient conditions and market variables (raw material, energy and product prices) to determine optimum operating conditions, thereby minimizing refinery operating costs or maximizing refinery profitability Refinery-Wide Energy Management automatically monitors and manages the production and consumption of energy in the refinery with the objective of minimizing energy costs without sacrificing refinery safety, operability or profitability Slide 13
14 The DCF-ROI Analysis Tool Invensys 10/23/2013
15 Demo of the Tool Slide 15
16 Summary of Financial Results Slide 16
17 Cost-Benefit Summary Slide 17
18 The Proposed Implementation Plan Slide 18
19 Sustaining the Benefits Have well-defined business objectives establish the operating envelope Technology savvy and engineering discipline (local and central) Clear, well-documented and regularly reported tangible benefits Field-proven work practices Validate the performance of the advanced applications before going on-line Routinely monitor the health of the applications (KPI) Continuous business focus and commitment Clear management expectations Maintenance commitment Slide 19
20 Slide 20
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