US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

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1 US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators December 31, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 ECRI 4 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5 US Unemployment Claims 6-7 US Petroleum Usage 8 US Electricity Output 9-1 US Railcar Loadings US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15 US Business Credit 16 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17 US Commercial Paper 18 US Liquid Assets 19-2 US Profits Cycle Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 24 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25 December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

3 Key Global Indicators 65 6 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Volume of World Exports (25=, sa) 12/29 Oct * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. 65 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) Aug 12/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Page 1 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

4 14 13 Figure 3. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* Global Boom Bust Barometer / * Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OIL / CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 12/ Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

5 US Leading Indicators Figure 5. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 12/22 13 Nov ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Conference Board LEI (21=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 6. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 12/ ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Nov Conference Board CEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 5 4 Page 3 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

6 -2 Figure 7. ECRI ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) High-Yield Corporate Spread* ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) / * High yield corporate less 1-year Treasury yield. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 145 Figure 8. S&P 5 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX 12/ S&P 5 Index ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) Source: Standard & Poor s and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Page 4 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

7 12 Figure 9. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) / Based on US Dollar (75.7) Source: Citigroup Figure 1. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 5 12/ Based on G1 Currencies (52) Source: Citigroup. - Page 5 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

8 Figure 11. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) US Unemployment Claims Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor Figure 12. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor Page 6 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

9 11 1 Figure 13. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa) US Unemployment Claims Continuing Continuing + Extended* /9 2 1 * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 14. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing Continuing + Extended* Nov 12/ * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

10 22 Figure 15. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) US Petroleum Usage Total* (2.1) 2 12/ * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 3.4 Figure 16. US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED Oct 12/ Gasoline Usage (million barrels per day, 52-wa) Vehicle Miles Traveled (trillion miles, 12-month sum) Source: US Department of Energy. 7. Page 8 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

11 8 78 Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 52-week moving average) US Electricity Output * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q Electric Utility Output (52-week moving average) Real GDP * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

12 8 78 Figure 19. US Electricity Output US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (52-week moving average) Electricity Output (GW hours) Total Manufacturing Production * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute Figure 2. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (52-week moving average) Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 1 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

13 US Railcar Loadings 6 Figure 21. RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) Total * Carloads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor s. 4 Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 35 Carloads Intermodal Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 11 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

14 3 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES US Railcar Loadings Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) Sales (million units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics Figure 24. RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) 1 8 Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2 Page 12 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

15 US Railcar Loadings 16 Figure 25. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) Coal Nonmetallic Minerals Chemicals & Petroleum Products Pulp & Paper Products Metals & Products Waste & Scrap Materials Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association Page 13 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

16 US Railcar Loadings Figure 26. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS Nov Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, nsa, 26-wa) (251.1) ATA Truck Tonnage Index (2=, sa, 3-ma) (147.7) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems Figure 27. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 3 2 Page 14 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

17 Figure 28. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (12-month sum) Nov 12/ * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics Figure 29. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) /28 Nov Deposits (26-day sum) Receipts (12-month sum) Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

18 26 24 Figure 3. US Business Credit SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 12/ C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Oct Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau Figure 31. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12/2 12/ Page 16 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

19 Figure 32. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES Source: Mortgage Bankers of America. MBA Mortgage Applications Survey Mortgage Applications: New Purchase Index (4-week average, sa) New Plus Existing Single-Family Home Sales (million units, saar) Nov 12/ Figure 33. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa) / Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Page 17 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

20 US Commercial Paper 24 Figure 34. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) Total Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) / / Asset Backed Total Financial 12/ Nonfinancial / / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 18 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

21 US Liquid Assets Figure 35. LIQUID ASSETS* (trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale) 12/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 36. LIQUID ASSETS* As a percent of Wilshire 5 (43.4) S&P 5 Market Cap (52.9) /2 12/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal. Page 19 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

22 Figure 37. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) US Liquid Assets Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** /18 12/ * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 38. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) Held By: Retail* Institutions** 12/ / * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

23 US Profits Cycle 13 Figure 39. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 12/21 12 Forward Earnings* Nov US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=) * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. 12 Figure 4. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) /21-4 Forward Earnings* -2-8 US Coincident Economic Indicators * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. Page 21 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

24 US Profits Cycle 7. Figure 41. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS 12/ Forward Earnings* (weekly) Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) Oct * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 42. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) Oct 12/ * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 22 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

25 Figure 43. US Profits Cycle S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) /21 Nov Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 44. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) /21-2 S&P 5 Forward Earnings* -5 Aggregate Hours * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 23 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

26 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 Figure 45. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 12/2 Boom-Bust Barometer* Consumer Comfort Index 12/ * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. 2 Figure 46. S&P 5 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX 12/ S&P 5 Index 12/2 24 YRI Weekly Leading Index* * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor s. Page 24 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

27 Figure 47. GASOLINE PRICES (dollars per gallon) Gasoline Prices & Rig Count National Average Pump Price (weekly) Futures Price (daily)* / / * Nearby contract. Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics Figure 48. ACTIVE US RIG COUNT (units) US Rig Count Total US (929) Oil (747) Gas (182) / Source: Baker Hughes Inc Page 25 / December 31, 217 / High Frequency Indicators www.

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