German Steel Federation

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1 Fig. 1 The steel economy in Germany: out of recession again 8 Orders received, rolled steel, total (change in % c.f. previous year s quarter) 55 Crude steel production (m. tonnes, sliding 3 MD, annualised) Oct. (p): 3.1 m. tonnes ( 3% c.f. previous year s month) Jan Oct 13: 2% Sept./Oct: +2% Q Q2 Q3 Q4 12 Q1 5. Q2 Q3 Q4 13 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 15 Forecast for 213: 42.2 m. tonnes ( 1%) Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

2 Fig. 2 Economic prospects for Germany: upturn in investment demand important steel processors expect to increase production Forecasts for 214 (change in % c.f. previous year) DIW (Okt.) IKB Bank (Juli) Ifo (November) Commerzbank (Okt.) DB Research (Sept.) Metal goods Steel use in per cent (Germany) Others 2.9 Household goods Construction Tubes 3 2 Automotive Machine construction Construction Bau Auto. Auto Mach. Maschb. constr. Metal Metallw. goods gewogenes Weighted Mittel average Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

3 Fig. 3 Stocks in the distribution sector are now at a very low level Inventory coverage and stocks of finished goods: steel traders and steel service centres in Germany 1 tonnes In months Stocks (left) Inventory coverage (right) Long-term average 4,9 4,4 3,9 3,4 2,9 22 Source: BDS ,4 Last value: Sept. 13 Recovery of steel processors will rapidly be converted to a rise in steel demand Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

4 Fig. 4 Steel forecast for Germany: market supply will grow by about 4% in 214 crude steel production will probably rise 2% to 43. m. tonnes Market supply, rolled steel (millions of tonnes) Crude steel production (millions of tonnes) % 1% +4% p 214f % 1% +2% f 214f Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

5 Fig. 5 Protectionism in the steel industry is rising worldwide Examples of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers USA: Buy American Import licences Brazil: Argentina: Import licences EU: No import duties on steel products Strict maintenance of subsidy discipline Turkey: Strategy plan Egypt: Morocco: Sources: OECD, WTO, Eurofer, EU Commission: DG Trade Red = countries will be examined in more detail in this report. Saudi Arabia: Buy national Iran: Buy National Tunesia: Pakistan: India: Compulsory national certification These trade restrictions affect about 65% of worldwide crude steel production. Russia: Kazakhstan: Australia: Thailand: National product standardisation Indonesia: Compulsory national certification China: VAT relief on exports Subsidies Direct foreign investments banned & licences Taiwan: Import licences Vietnam: Import licences Malaysia: Import licences Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

6 Fig. 6 EU steel demand to increase slightly in 214 Germany remains an anchor providing stability Market supply EU 27 (millions of tonnes) Development of market supply, rolled steel, in selected countries of the EU 27 (26=1) Deutschland Germany Frankreich France Italien Italy Spanien Spain Forecast 1 % 4% 4% 2% 7 3% 2% 5 6 2% +3% 5 2% 3% p 14f p 14f Source: Eurofer Economic Commission, Oct Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

7 Fig. 7 High under-utilisation of EU steel capacities again in 214 strong regional differences Crude steel production, EU (millions of tonnes) Effective utilisation of crude steel capacity (in per cent) Deutschl. Germany EU EU ohne ex Germany D % 3% +2% f 214f Source: Own calculations f 214f Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

8 Fig. 8 Costs for the steel industry in Germany resulting from the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Million / year EEG costs, steel industry in m. / a Feed-in payments in bn. / a * Billion / year p 214p : EEG levy 6.24 cents / kwh * incl. market premium etc., minus saved network charges Source: network operators, in-house calculations Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

9 Fig. 9 A ban on aid in the form of the special compensation scheme would threaten the steel industry in Germany with costs of 1 bn. euros / year 12 Million EEG payments 214 p Draft environmental and energy aid guidelines State aid prodeedings * 2% deductible ** Complete ban on special compensation scheme Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

10 Fig. 1 Study by IW Consult: no comparable competitive conditions through initiatives on emission trading systems in other countries Worldwide steel production (in per cent) Burden from emission trading systems Proportion of world steel production No CO 2 trading for the steel industry, or voluntary system Regional pilot projects CO 2 trading with low reduction targets CO 2 trading with high reduction targets Source: IW Consult Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation

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