OUTLINING STORAGE REGIONALLY IN AFRICA How much is sufficient and well-linked storage key to security of supply and competitive pricing?

Transcription

1 Platts African Refining Summit 2014 OUTLINING STORAGE REGIONALLY IN AFRICA How much is sufficient and well-linked storage key to security of supply and competitive pricing? - by Gabriel Ogbechie, Managing Director, Rainoil Limited November 2014

2 . Content Overview 1. Introduction 2. Regional storage overview 3. A Case study of Nigeria 4. Financing and investing in tank storage facilities across Africa 5. Conclusion 2

3 Introduction: Petroleum Product Storage

4 Africa is a net importer of refined products, while holding about 8% of the world oil reserves... Africa has experienced some of the largest growth in global oil demand a recent forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA), estimates that demand for refined products across the entire Africa continent is likely to rise by up by 40% in 2020 (i.e. from 3 million bpd in 2008 to 4.3million bpd in 2020) Number of Refineries 46 Utilisation Rate 67% (Global Average 80%) 40 operational refineries (21 in North Africa while 19 are in sub-saharan Africa) Relatively inefficient refining capacity e.g. Nigeria is Africa s top crude oil producer, but imports more than 80% of its refined petroleum products According to the 2012 BP Statistical Energy Survey, Africa has a 2011 Refinery capacity of million bpd (3.56% of the world total). Refinery throughput was million bpd (2.93% of the world total). Heavy reliance on imports (from US, Europe, Middle East) portends tougher times ahead, if the global oil price slide continues! 4

5 Storage Terminals Also known as a Tank Farm or Oil Depot,...is a storage facility for refined products. Pipelines or tankers deliver crude and petrochemicals to the terminals for storage and redistribution Downstream Today Usually situated close to oil refineries or in locations where marine tankers containing products can discharge their cargo. Some depots are attached to pipelines from which they draw their supplies and depots can also be fed by rail, by barge and by road tanker (sometimes known as "bridging"). Storage Tanks Gantry 5

6 Regional Storage Overview

7 Oil and gas transportation and storage infrastructure investments are in integral requirement in the value chain They are an essential requirement to bring the crude and refined products to the market These and related port infrastructure in many African countries are often insufficient and deteriorated. Increased storage facilities are desirable for oil marketers in Africa. This is more critical in the fragmented Eastern African markets due to thin margins realised from sales. As such, bulk supplies hold the key to profitability. 7

8 Supply Challenges Volatile international crude oil prices and lack of storage facilities, combined with domestic challenges such as price caps and exchange rate fluctuations, have remained a big challenge for investors in the oil business. Limitations in transportation of petroleum products from the coast to inland areas This is attributable to limited infrastructure i.e. storage facilities and pipelines to receive and supply products. Significant capital requirements for development 8

9 A Case study of Nigeria

10 Nigeria is a continuously growing market for refined petroleum products NNPC accounts for approx. 33% of petroleum product imports into the country, major marketer account for 16%, while independent marketers account for 51% No. of Depots Independent Marketers Major Marketers NNPC/PPMC 10

11 Daily Consumption vs Storage Capacity 44 Daily Consumption (million ltrs) Total Storage Capacity (million ltrs) 3,804 2,339 2,014 PMS AGO DPK PMS AGO DPK Max. Reserve Days PMS 87 days AGO 87 days DPK 101 days 11

12 Storage Capacity (M3) Outlining Storage Regionally in Africa Storage Capacity in Nigeria (By Product in Cubic Meters) 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Independent Marketers 40% of total 20% of total Major Marketers 40% of total NNPC / PPMC Total PMS 1,639, ,741 1,422,699 3,804,745 AGO 867, , ,057 2,339,517 DPK 732,588 40,100 1,240,816 2,013,504 ATK 73, , ,180 Bitumen 81,697 38, ,429 LPFO 87,540 17,691 28, ,610 Base Oil 62,963 18, ,568 Capacity - 87 days Actual - 30 days (avg)

13 Nigeria Operates an Import Subsidy Regime for PMS Average daily PMS consumption 40 million litres Quantity of PMS refined daily 6 million litres Balance is imported Supply shortages result in price increases... PMS price set by government 13

14 Financing and Investing in Tank Storage Facilities across Africa

15 Construction of Tank Farms In 2012, government policy reforms restricted the importation of gasoline to only tank farm owners Between 2011 and 2014, there has been an average increase of 1 new tank farm per month Average construction cost of a 3omillion litre capacity tank farm ranges from $9.3 million $18.8 million Number of Tank Farms in Nigeria 15

16 While there is a huge incentive for investing, the capital requirements are significant... Planned 13.2 million barrel-capacity oil storage and blending terminal in South Africa's Port of Saldanha Bay. A R2-billion JV agreement. Construction of a new $ 120m oil terminal in the Kenya seaport Mombasa. The terminal will include 4 additional storage tanks with a total capacity of million litres, an equivalent of 22% of the current total national capacity (of million litres) and will accommodate four 150,000 tons DWT ships. It will also double the current capacity and cater for the extra load of petroleum products when a new pipeline linking the capital with Mombasa becomes operational in Construction is set to be completed by Djibouti will start work on liquefied-natural-gas and crude-oil terminals by March as part of a $5 billion plan to develop regional trade ties. Construction of the two facilities will add to four new ports already being built and will quadruple cargo handling capacity to almost 80 million metric tons p.a. Equitorial Guinea plans to develop a new oil terminal with storage capacity of 2.2m cubic metres in Bioko. Half of the capacity would be dedicated to blending crude oil and the other half to refined petroleum products. 16

17 Emerging Developments (cont d) Rwanda plans to expand its fuel storage capacity by nearly 150 million litres over the next three years. This plan is dependent on the expansion of Uganda and Kenya s proposed petroleum product pipeline to Rwanda. This would potentially ease supply in the country and position Rwanda as a supply hub to other neighbouring countries. In Nigeria, the government is to fund the construction of an alternative Jetty / Storage Facility in Port-Harcourt or Warri to cover the Sothern markets. In 2013, the South Africa Department of Energy drafted a Strategic Stocks Petroleum Policy and Implementation Plan. Aimed ensuring adequate supply of products (petrol, diesel, jet fuel and LPG) in the event of severe fuel supply disruptions or catastrophes. Tanzania is also planning a strategic reserve and Uganda has a 30 million litres in emergency fuel reserve in the works 17

18 Conclusion

19 Globally, approximately 4.1 billion barrels (650,000,000 m3) of oil are held in strategic reserves... EIA Strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) or crude oil inventories) are increasing being held by the governments and private industry, for the purpose of providing economic and national security during an energy crisis. 1. Kenya is setting up a Strategic Fuel Reserve. The strategic stocks would be procured by the National Oil Corporation of Kenya and stored by the Kenya Pipeline Company Limited. 2. Malawi is considering creating a 21-day reserve of fuel, which is an expansion from the current five day reserve. 3. South Africa has an SPR managed by PetroSA and the primary facility is the Saldanha Bay oil storage facility, which has a storage capacity of 45,000,000 barrels (7,200,000 m3). 19

20 Recommendations 1. Increasing domestic refining capacity would be an ideal answer to mitigating the effects of declining crude oil prices (in the longer term). 2. Storage facilities that deliver global connectivity and trading potential will continue to attract investors 3. Investment in port infrastructure; establishing more Jetties and Storage Facilities (increased private sector investment) 4. Improve transport infrastructure (e.g. roads and railways) to facilitate easy flow of products. 5. Expanding storage facilities and developing strategic national petroleum reserves would aid in stabilising supply in the region- help marketers reduce demurrage charges These will further open routes that link oil producing regions to oil markets. 20

21 References i. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation ii. iii. iv. Department of Petroleum Resources US Energy Information Administration Challenges of coping with low refining capacity - Thursday, 06 November :00 Written by Sulaimon Salau (Guardian Newspaper Article) v. Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook for Refineries in Africa - Nigeria to Drive Refinery Capacity Growth reportlinker.com vi. Tank Storage Magazine - Volume 10, Issue 6 vii. viii. ix. Oil & Natural Gas Transportation & Storage Infrastructure: Status, Trends, & Economic Benefits HIS Global Inc. africanbusinessmagazine.com Opportunities and Challenges for refiners in Africa Gaffet, Cline & Associates x. South Africa Department of Energy (2013) Strategic Stocks Petroleum Policy 21

22 Thank You