Abstract. The following pie chart shows world consumption of synthetic lubricant base stocks on a volume basis:

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1 Abstract Synthetic lubricants (synlubes) formulated products consisting of synthetic base stocks plus additives have physical and chemical properties that are generally superior to those of conventional mineral oil based lubricants. As a result, synlubes are the lubricants of choice in applications with especially demanding performance requirements. Since synlube base stocks are generally far more expensive than conventional mineral oils, their use has traditionally been restricted to those applications that demand the very high performance characteristics that only the synlubes can provide. Increasingly, however, industrial customers in some segments are taking a broader and longer view of their total costs and are opting to use synlubes to reduce maintenance, minimize disposal problems, or satisfy health, safety, or environmental regulations. The market for synthetic lubricant base stocks is dominated by three product groups polyalphaolefins (PAO), esters, and polyalkylene glycols (PAG). Their combined market share in 2014 was almost 90%. PAO accounted for 44% of the total synlube base stock in 2014, followed by esters at 30% and PAG at 13%. The following pie chart shows world consumption of synthetic lubricant base stocks on a volume basis: lubricant Since the 1990s, a major driving force for the strong growth of synlubes in the automotive sector has been the promotional campaigns of lubricant manufacturers for their synthetic automotive crankcase and gear oils and the new requirements of automobile manufacturers, especially in Western Europe. The ongoing demand for higher fuel economy also pushes the use of high-quality motor and gear oils. Another important development was the growing use of synlubes as refrigerator oils to provide compatibility with the new refrigerants that have replaced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). From 2006 to the first half of 2008, PAO demand and raw material supply were balanced and at a high production level. With the onset of the economic crisis in the second half of 2008, sales decreased sharply. As the economy recovered, PAO consumption increased at 2% per year during PAO consumption is increasing in industrial applications, such as wind power generation plants, where it is used for gear oil. An increase in wind power generation plants is stimulating PAO consumption. Esters have a much broader application range than all other synlube base stocks. During , some growth was seen in refrigeration, where growing production of compressors for refrigeration and air-conditioning in China and Brazil drove demand; aviation turbines (deliveries of new passenger aircraft greatly increased from 2011 to 2014 and will probably 2015 IHS 1 November 2015

2 continue to do so); and increasing automotive production in developing countries, which increased use for gear oils and indirectly for use as rolling oil in steel production, and use as industrial hydraulic or metalworking fluids. It is expected that growing demand in Brazil, Russia, India, and China will lead to growing production in these countries in the next five years. The synlube application has only a minor share of total PAG production between 5% and 10%, depending on the region. PAG consumption profited from the growing economies in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America. PAG is used in fireresistant hydraulic fluids for mining and metal processing, compressor lubricants for industrial uses such as in chemical and petrochemical complexes, and as a lube oil for automobile air conditioners. The synlubes business includes large volumes of polyalkylene glycols and low-viscosity polyalphaolefins that are sold largely as commodities, but also many small-volume, high-priced specialty chemical products. Nearly all synlube base stocks enjoy growth rates that are higher than those of mineral oils, and many are growing faster than other specialty chemical product types. Although many segments of this business appear attractive (good growth and limited competition), entry into this market would not be easy, except through acquisition, which often means acquiring other related businesses linked to synlubes only by the family of products the acquired company produces. While the total share of synthetic lubricant base stocks in the global lubricant base oil business is only around 3%, their importance is growing as more and more applications demand a level of performance that is borderline or beyond the capabilities of conventional lubricants. This is reflected by the fact that synlubes represent about 10% of the total value of the global lube oil market. The world market for synlube base stocks is projected to grow at an average annual rate of about 2.9% per year on a volume basis to Growth in synlube base stocks is expected to continue at a low rate in Europe and Japan. In contrast, high growth rates are expected in developing countries including China, Other Asia, and South America IHS 2 November 2015

3 Contents Abbreviations Summary Polyalphaolefins (PAO) Esters Polyalkylene glycols Overview of the Synthetic Lubricants Industry Introduction North America 15 Industry structure 15 Company profiles 19 Chemtura Corporation 19 The Dow Chemical Company 20 ExxonMobil Chemical Company 20 Quaker Chemical Corporation 20 Operating Characteristics 21 Research and development 21 Manufacturing 21 Marketing 22 Cost structure and profitability 22 Government regulations 22 Trends and opportunities 23 Critical factors for success 24 Western Europe 24 Industry structure 24 Company profile BASF 26 Operating Characteristics 27 Research and development 27 Manufacturing 28 Marketing 29 Cost structure and profitability 30 Government regulations 30 Developmental phase 30 Marketing 31 Utilization 31 Automotive lubricants 31 Hydraulic fluids 32 Lubricants for refrigeration 32 Biodegradable fluids 33 Disposal 34 Trends and opportunities 35 Automotive lubricating oils 36 Lubricants for refrigeration 38 Industrial lubricants and functional fluids 38 Strategic issues IHS CHEMICAL COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2015 IHS. For internal use of IHS clients only. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates or assumptions and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This report is not to be construed as legal or financial advice and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at client s own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS IHS 2 November 2015

4 Critical factors for success 40 Japan 41 Industry structure 41 Company profiles 42 Kao Corporation 42 Lion Corporation 43 NOF Corporation 43 Operating Characteristics 44 Research and development 44 Manufacturing 44 Marketing 44 Cost structure and profitability 45 Government regulations 45 Trends and opportunities 46 Critical factors for success 47 China 48 Industry structure 48 Company profile Sinopec Lubricant Company 50 Synthetic Lubricant Products and Markets 51 Products and functions 51 Polyalphaolefins 53 Polyol esters 54 Dibasic acid esters 55 Polyalkylene glycols 55 Phosphate esters 56 Polymer esters 57 Polybutenes 57 Dialkylbenzenes 58 Alkylnaphthalenes 58 Other Specialty Products 58 Fluorinated compounds 58 Multiply alkylated cyclopentanes 59 Polyphenyl ethers 60 Polyvinyl ethers 60 Silicate ester lubricants 60 Silicones and fluorosilicones 61 Competing products 61 Group III/III+ base oils 61 GTL base oils 62 North America 62 Consumption and markets 62 Polyalphaolefins 63 Automotive applications 64 Aviation applications 65 Industrial applications 65 Grease and other applications 65 Polyol esters 66 Automotive and aviation applications 67 Industrial applications 68 Polyalkylene glycols 68 Automotive applications 69 Industrial applications 69 Dibasic acid esters 70 Automotive and aviation applications IHS 3 November 2015

5 Industrial applications 71 Polybutenes 71 Automotive applications 72 Industrial applications 72 Phosphate esters 72 Aviation applications 73 Industrial applications 73 Alkylnaphthalenes 74 Dialkylbenzenes 74 Other specialty products 74 Silicones and fluorosilicones 75 Fluorinated products 75 Polyphenyl ethers 75 Silicate esters 75 Market participants 76 Polyalphaolefins 77 Polyol esters and diesters 78 Polyalkylene glycols 78 Polybutenes 79 Phosphate esters 80 Alkylnaphthalenes (alkylated naphthalene) 80 Dialkylbenzenes 80 Other specialty products 80 Prices 81 Future trends and strategic issues 81 Central and South America 82 Western Europe 83 Consumption and Markets 83 Overview 83 Polyalphaolefins 85 Automotive crankcase lubricants for gasoline engines 86 Automotive crankcase lubricants for diesel engines 87 Automotive gear lubricants 87 Other auto lubricants 88 Aviation crankcase lubricants 88 Industrial uses 88 Polyol esters 89 Automotive crankcase lubricants 89 Aviation turbine oils 90 Fire-resistant and biodegradable hydraulic fluids 90 Refrigerant oils 91 Metalworking oils 91 Metal rolling oils 92 Industrial gear and transformer oils 92 Compressor oils 92 Greases and other 92 Polyalkylene glycols 92 Two-cycle engine oils 93 Fire-resistant hydraulic fluids 94 Circulating, bearing and gear oils 94 Textile oils 94 Compressor oils 94 Metalworking oils 95 Refrigerant oils IHS 4 November 2015

6 Monoesters 95 Dibasic and tribasic acid esters 95 Automotive crankcase lubricants 96 Other automotive uses 96 Aviation turbine oils 96 Bearings, hydraulic fluids, gears and greases 97 Industrial compressor oils 97 Polybutenes 97 Two-cycle engine oils 98 Compressor oils 98 Gear and hydraulic oils, greases 99 Metalworking oils 99 Phosphate esters 99 Fire-resistant hydraulic fluids 100 Aviation hydraulic fluids 100 Turbine oils and compressor oils 100 Dialkylbenzenes 101 Refrigeration oils 101 Metalworking Oils 101 Other specialty products 102 Silicones and fluorosilicones 102 Fluorinated compounds 102 Silicate esters 103 Market participants 103 Mergers and acquisitions in the lubricants industry 104 Polyalphaolefins and related products 106 ExxonMobil 107 INEOS Oligomers 107 Chevron Phillips 107 Esters 107 Dibasic and tribasic acid esters 107 Polyol esters 108 Polymer esters 108 Polyalkylene glycols 108 Other synlube base stocks 108 Synlube compounders and marketers 109 Prices 109 Future trends and strategic issues 110 Market-driven trends 110 Technology-driven trends 111 Environmentally driven trends 112 Central and Eastern Europe 113 Middle East and Africa 114 Asia 115 Japan 115 Consumption and markets 115 Overview 115 Polyalphaolefins 116 Polyalkylene glycols 117 Polyol esters (hindered esters) 118 Polybutenes 120 Dibasic acid esters 121 Phosphate esters 122 Dialkylbenzenes 123 Other specialty products IHS 5 November 2015

7 Market participants 125 Polyalphaolefins 126 Polyalkylene glycols 127 Polyol esters 127 Polybutenes 127 Dibasic acid esters 128 Phosphate esters 128 Dialkylbenzenes 128 Other specialty products 128 Prices 128 China 129 Consumption and markets 129 Overview 129 Polyalphaolefins 130 Polyol esters 133 Polyalkylene glycols 135 Market participants 137 Prices 138 Other Asia 138 Consumption and markets 138 Polybutenes 138 Polyalphaolefins 139 Synthetic lube oil 139 Market participants 140 Overview of the Lubricating Oil Industry 141 Base oil 141 Capacity outlook 141 Supply 141 Demand 142 Trade balance 142 Finished lubricants 142 Supply 142 Demand 143 Lubricant formulation trends and base oil impacts 145 Industry structure 146 North America 146 Producers and products 146 Consumption 148 Growth forecast 149 South America 150 Producers and products 150 Consumption 150 Growth forecast 151 Western Europe 151 Producers and products 151 Production 153 Consumption 153 Growth forecast 155 Central and Eastern Europe 156 Industry structure 156 Producers and products 156 Production 157 Consumption 157 Growth forecast IHS 6 November 2015

8 Middle East 158 Producers and products 158 Consumption 159 Growth forecast 159 Africa 160 Producers and products 160 Consumption 161 Growth forecast 161 Japan 161 Producers and products 161 Supply/demand 162 Growth forecast 164 China 164 Industry structure 164 Producers and products 165 Base oil 165 Finished lubricants 167 Supply/demand 169 Growth forecast 170 Other Asia 171 Producers and products 171 Supply/demand IHS 7 November 2015

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