Q3 Interim Report 2016
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1 Q3 Interim Report 216 Lennart Evrell President & CEO Håkan Gabrielsson CFO
2 Strong earnings and high mine production Revenues 9,733 (9,764) MSEK EBIT ex PIR* 1,318 (1,55) MSEK EBIT 1,529 (88) MSEK Free Cash Flow 91 (953) MSEK MSEK R4Q, MSEK Improved market terms High production Mines Production disturbances zinc smelters Maintenance shutdowns in Smelters -5 (-85) MSEK Higher inventories Smelters Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Rolling 4Q EBIT Rolling Q EBIT excl PIR* * PIR=Process Inventory Revaluation Boliden Group Q
3 Market Slow demand growth, supply driven market Macro Low industrial production growth Base metals markets Cu, Zn demand growing slowly Stronger Ni demand Zn mine supply down, smelter supply down slightly Continued growth in Cu mine supply Ni supply down Boliden Group Q
4 Zinc price Zinc price, USD/t 5 KTonnes 2 USD/t 2 6 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q jul-15 okt-15 jan-16 apr-16 jul-16 okt LME inventory Shanghai inventory Price Price Q avg 4 Average price in Q3 vs. period Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q % 34% 4% 22% Note: Prices until 11 October 216 Boliden Group Q
5 Copper price Copper price, USD/t 12 KTonnes 2 4 USD/t 7 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q jul-15 okt-15 jan-16 apr-16 jul-16 okt LME inventory COMEX inventory Shanghai inventory Price Price Q avg 4 Average price in Q3 vs. period Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 1% 2% -2% -9% Note: Prices until 11 October 216 Boliden Group Q
6 Nickel price Nickel price, USD/t 6 KTonnes 6 USD/t 13 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q jul-15 okt-15 jan-16 apr-16 jul-16 okt Average price in Q3 vs. period LME inventory Price Price Q avg Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q % 21% 9% -3% Note: Prices until 11 October 216 Boliden Group Q
7 Zinc, copper and nickel prices Normal C1 Zinc Normal C1 Copper Normal C1 Nickel USD/ton 5 5 USD/ton USD/ton Zn average price Zn min price 75th perc Zn max price 5th perc 9th perc Cu average price Cu min price 75th perc Cu max price 5th perc 9th perc Ni average price Ni min price 75th perc Ni max price 9th perc 5th perc Source: Wood Mackenzie October 216, Thomson Reuters Datastream Boliden Group Q
8 Gold, silver and lead prices Gold price, USD/troy oz. 2 Gold Silver price, USD/troy oz Silver Lead price, USD/t 5 Lead Average price in Q3 vs. period Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Gold 6% 13% 21% 19% Silver 17% 32% 33% 32% Lead 9% 7% 11% 9% Note: Prices until 11 October 216 Boliden Group Q
9 Boliden market term index Boliden Group Q
10 Mines Boliden Group Q
11 Mines Strong quarter with high production EBIT 84 (26) MSEK 621 MSEK in Q2 216 Capex 748 (563) MSEK MSEK R4Q, MSEK Higher metal prices High production in most mines Kevitsa positive EBIT Good cost control Quarterly EBIT Rolling 4Q EBIT Boliden Group Q
12 Mines Production Milled ore, mt 12 Copper Metal content, kt 3 Milled ore, mt 2, Zinc Metal content, kt , , , ,4 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Milled ore Metal content pro forma** Metal content Milled ore Metal content Nickel Milled ore, kt Metal content, kt 2 8 3, , 2 2, , 1 2 1,5 8 1, 4,5, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Milled ore pro forma* Milled ore Metal content pro forma** Metal content High production Aitik low crusher availability Boliden Area high milling, less favorable ore mix Garpenberg stable and high production Kevitsa high milled volume Kylylahti record milled production Tara stable production, high milled volume (*) Milled ore incl Kevitsa (**) Metal content incl Kevitsa Boliden Group Q
13 Smelters Boliden Group Q
14 Smelters Production disturbances at zinc smelters EBIT ex PIR* 613 (825) MSEK 397 MSEK in Q2 216 Capex 28 (315) MSEK 1 1 MSEK 9 R4Q, MSEK Improved market terms Higher Zn TC vs Q2 Production disturbances zinc smelters Maintenance shutdowns -5 (-85) MSEK -21 MSEK in Q2 Higher inventories Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Rolling 4Q EBIT Rolling 4Q EBIT excl PIR* * PIR=Process Inventory Revaluation Boliden Group Q
15 Smelters Production Total feed, kt 4 Copper Metal production, kt 12 Total feed, kt 25 Zinc Metal production, kt Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Feed, total Metal production Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Feed, total Metal production Stable processes at Harjavalta Maintenance shutdowns at Rönnskär Production disturbances Lower recoveries at Kokkola High feed in Odda Odda P2 test runs, project ahead of plan Boliden Group Q
16 Financials Boliden Group Q
17 Strong earnings Financial development MSEK Q3 216 Q3 215 Q2 216 Revenues EBITDA EBIT Process inventory revaluation (PIR) EBIT ex PIR EBIT ex PIR pro forma Investments Acquisitions Free cash flow Earnings per share, SEK 4,15 2,36 2,26 Net debt / equity ratio Boliden Group Q
18 Q3 vs. Q3, Higher metal prices & production Mines EBIT excl. PIR pro forma* MSEK Q ,318 Q pro forma 1,67 Deviation 251 Specification of deviation Volumes 164 Prices and Terms (incl. hedges) 59 Whereof currency effects 23 Costs -183 Depreciation -222 Items affecting comparability - Other -18 Deviation 251 Higher milled volume Mines Production disturbances Smelters Lower free metals Higher metal prices Higher volume Mines Production disturbances Smelters Higher volume Mines Aitik capital intensive areas Kevitsa *The comparison period includes Kevitsa that was acquired 1 June 216 Boliden Group Q
19 Q3 vs. Q2, Higher metal prices and lower costs EBIT excl. PIR pro forma* MSEK Q ,318 Q pro forma 885 Deviation 433 Specification of deviation Volumes -145 Prices and Terms (incl. hedges) 597 Whereof currency effects 89 Costs 36 Depreciation -9 Items affecting comparability -29 Other -26 Deviation 433 Less favorable ore mix Boliden Area Internal profit elimination Higher metal prices Seasonally lower costs Less maintenance Smelters Higher reclamation previous quarter Kevitsa Pensions Tara Q2 Acquisition costs Kevitsa Q2 *The comparison period includes Kevitsa that was acquired 1 June 216 Boliden Group Q
20 Free cash flow impacted by inventory build-up Free cash flow MSEK Q3 216 Q3 215 Q2 216 EBITDA excluding PIR Changes in working capital Inventories Payables Receivables Other -7 1 Cash flow from investments Cash flow from acquisitions Financial items* Tax paid Other Free cash flow Free cash flow excl. Kevitsa acquisition * Q2 216 includes -39 MSEK cost for Kevitsa bridge financing Boliden Group Q
21 Balance sheet SEK bn (Unless otherwise stated) 3 Sep Jun 216 Total Assets Capital employed Shareholders' equity Net debt Gearing, % 4 43 Loan duration, years Average interest rate, % Interest duration, years.2.4 Net payment capacity MSEK Net debt Gearing Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % Boliden Group Q
22 Going forward Well positioned in the metal market Metal prices low macro visibility Mines Aitik: volatile production, Cu.21% (216),.25% ( ) Garpenberg: Zn 4.5%, Ag 12 g/ton (until FY 217) Tara: lower Zn grade in Q4 vs Q3 Kevitsa & Boliden Area: soft ore Q3 Smelters No planned maintenance Q4 Odda P2: ahead of plan, ramp-up continues Q4 Capex 216: slightly above 4 BSEK 217: 5 BSEK Boliden Group Q
23 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Boliden for information purposes only and as per the indicated date. Boliden does not undertake any obligation to correct or update the information or any statements made therein. Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Boliden has not made any independent verification of the information obtained from third parties. Nothing in this material shall be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Boliden does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from or in connection with the use of this information. Save as by prior approval in writing, this material may not be copied, transmitted or disclosed, whether in print, electronic or any other format. All rights to the material are reserved. Boliden Group Q
24 Boliden Group Q
25 Appendix Boliden Group Q
26 Market balance zinc and copper Zinc global market Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Metals demand, kt Year on year change % -1% -1% % % 1% 2% 2% Smelter production, kt Year on year change 5% 7% 7% 1% -2% -2% -3% -2% Mine production, kt Year on year change 9% 4% 4% 2% -1% -9% -13% -1% Metal balance, kt Concentrate balance, kt Copper global market Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Metals demand, kt Year on year change 3% % % 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% Smelter production, kt Year on year change 7% 4% 3% % 1% 3% 3% 2% Mine production, kt Year on year change -2% -1% 4% 2% 15% 8% 6% 4% Metal balance, kt Concentrate balance, kt Source: CRU September, October 216, Boliden calculations Boliden Group Q
27 Market balance nickel and lead Nickel - global market Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Metals demand, kt Year on year change -3% % -3% -1% 4% 2% 7% 6% Smelter production, kt Year on year change -4% -5% 3% -5% -3% -1% -2% -3% Mine production, kt Year on year change -34% 5% 4% 4% 9% -1% -5% -2% Metal balance, kt Lead - global market Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Metals demand, kt Year on year change 1% % % 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% Smelter production, kt Year on year change % -1% -1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% Mine production, kt Year on year change 1% -4% -1% 1% -3% 1% -4% -4% Metal balance, kt Concentrate balance, kt Source: CRU September, October 216, Boliden calculations Boliden Group Q
28 Economic development Industrial production, year on year % J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D EU28 USA China World Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Boliden calculations for world data Boliden Group Q
29 Construction largest segment for Cu and Zn Activity, year on year % J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D EU USA China China: year on year based on cumulative investments at each point Source: Reuters Datastream Boliden Group Q
30 Automotive Production of light vehicles, year on year, quarterly data 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Europe USA China World Source: LMC Automotive Boliden Group Q
31 China metals demand and economic growth Year on year growth % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: CRU Ltd, Thomson Reuters Datastream Zinc demand Copper demand GDP Industrial production Boliden Group Q
32 Zinc TC and premia US$/t concentrate 3 Treatment charges US$/t metal 25 Metal premia Realized TC - European contract Spot TC, China imports Delivered Premia US Midwest Premia Far East - Western Ex-Works Premia Europe Concentrate market tight, metal market fairly balanced Spot TCs in China down Higher Zn price, realized contract TC up Stable premia in Europe Source: CRU September 216 Boliden Group Q
33 Copper TC and premia US$/t concentrate Treatment charges Contract TC - annual and mid-year benchmark Standard grade spot TC US$/t metal Metal premia USD tonne Contract benchmark according to market sources including CRU Contract benchmark according to market sources including CRU Mine production ramp-up Spot TCs stable Spot premia up slightly from low level Source: CRU September 216 Boliden Group Q
34 Boliden Group Q
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