29901 Santa Margarita Parkway, RSM, CA. Auto Dealership Market Assessment Prepared for Rancho Canyon LLC. Attachment 41

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Myrtle Palmer
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1 Attachment 41 Prepared for Rancho Canyon LLC Santa Margarita Parkway, RSM, CA Auto Dealership Market Assessment

2 Executive Summary Conclusions: 1. Although the Subject Site, Family Honda RSM, Santa Margarita Ford, and Penske Toyota RSM are all located within the Rancho Santa Margarita Auto Center, only Family Honda RSM and Santa Margarita Ford work off the synergy of being part of an auto center. The Subject Site and Penske Toyota RSM both feel like outliers and are not associated other then by proximity. 2. The Subject Site offers very little visibility North and South Bound along Santa Margarita Parkway. 3. Auto Brands located within 15 Miles of the Subject Property represent nearly 98% of all auto sales in the United States in Approximately 86% of all typical Auto Brands are represented at least once and in some instances two, three, or four times within 5, 10, and 15 miles of the Subject Property. 5. All four Auto Centers located within 15 miles are located along major highways; Irvine Auto Center Interstate 5, Tustin Auto Center Interstate 5, Capistrano Auto Center Interstate 5, Santa Ana Auto Mall State Route 55. The traffic counts on Santa Margarita Parkway do not and cannot come anywhere close to the traffic counts of the major highways. 6. In addition to the Auto Centers, all but four of the Stand Alone Dealers are located near a major highway (in this case 74% of Stand Alone Dealers are located along Interstate 5). Three of the four Stand Alone Dealers are located in RSM, and the fourth is located in Foothill Ranch (all located along the 241 Toll Road). 7. Since 2009 auto sales in the United States have been increasing year after year by 11.7% on average, yet Auto Dealers have left and not returned to the immediate area (Subject Site and Foothill Ranch Auto Center). 8. Motor vehicle and parts sales within Rancho Santa Margarita decreased more substantially then any other competitive market (cities with auto centers) between , and has performed the worst of all the markets over the last decade. 9. The Subject Property operated as a Nissan dealership with new facilities & a strong Brand name during the more recent best of economic times and yet still closed before the recession hit. It is not unreasonable to conclude that this site may never again be viable as a market rate dealership in the foreseeable future given current market trends. 10. Rancho Santa Margarita offers very strong local income, education, homeowner, and net wealth demographics. All factors that are necessary in the overall feasibility of a dealership, yet there are stronger nearby regional market opportunities. This combined with the statistical data shows that the Subject Site, which has struggled since its beginning in 2004, needs to be repositioned. We believe the Site would directly benefit as a new retail/commercial venture rather then a destination location such as an auto dealership. 2

Local Area Santa Margarita Ford and Family Honda RSM offer superior visibility and access when compared to the Subject Site and Penske Toyota due to excellent access from the 241 Toll Road, large

Penske offers excellent visibility along Avenida Empresa, Comercio, and Avenida De Las Banderas.

3 Local Area Santa Margarita Ford and Family Honda RSM offer superior visibility and access when compared to the Subject Site and Penske Toyota due to excellent access from the 241 Toll Road, large welcoming auto mall access driveway and parking, and high visibility vehicle display and building locations. Penske offers excellent visibility along Avenida Empresa, Comercio, and Avenida De Las Banderas. These secondary roads however, do not offer the visibility of Santa Margarita Pkwy and the 241 Toll Road on/exit ramp. Although the Subject Site is located along Santa Margarita Parkway the positioning and shape of the property (long and narrow) offers very little visibility from the street. Additionally, the Subject Site feels removed and not associated with the rest of the RSM Auto Center (It is located directly adjacent, but shares little more other than a property border) Street Cross Street Traffic Count Santa Margarita Parkway Tomas 40,836 Avenida Empresa Comercio 19,593 Comercio Avenida Empresa 1,753 Avenida de las Banderas Comercio 7,425 Avenida Empresa Avenida de las Banderas 12,375 Source: MSPI Estimate 3

Subject Site Although the site offers a signalized intersection and 375

with decrease in elevation from the front to the back offers very

4 Subject Site Although the site offers a signalized intersection and 375 feet of frontage along Santa Margarita Parkway, visibility of the site is very limited. The long narrow nature of the property, approximately 375 x 700, along with decrease in elevation from the front to the back offers very little opportunity other than fora destination location (ie. location of multiple visits on a daily or weekly basis). Subject Site 4

Currently three brands are represented 4 times, ten brands are represented 3 times, ten brands are represented 2 times, and only nine brands are represented only once within 15 miles.

5 Competitive Auto Brand Representation The competitive trade area offers 4 auto brands located within 4 miles, 35 within 10.0 miles, and 71 within 15.0 miles. This brand representation shows very little room for additional brands at the Subject Site. Currently three brands are represented 4 times, ten brands are represented 3 times, ten brands are represented 2 times, and only nine brands are represented only once within 15 miles. Eight of these nine represented only 2.95% of total auto sales within the United States by Company in The ninth brand represented only once was Chevrolet which moved from a similar location (to the Subject Site) in Foothill Ranch to the Irvine Auto Center. 5.0 Mile Trade Area Honda Ford Toyota Mercedes 10.0 Mile Trade Area Mazda Subaru Chevrolet Kia Buick GMC Volvo Honda Ford Lincoln VW Hyundai Nissan Mazda Jeep Chrysler Dodge Fisker BMW Mini Lexus GMC Hyundai Audi Infiniti Toyota Jaguar Land Rover Acura Mercedes Smart 15.0 Mile Trade Area Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram VW Ford Toyota Scion Kia Honda Nissan Cadillac Lexus Hyundai Infiniti Nissan Buick Toyota Scion Acura Lincoln Ram Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ford GMC MV 1 Buick Honda BMW Mini VW Audi Lexus Mercedes The Irvine Auto Center Capistrano Auto Center Tustin Auto Center Santa Ana Auto Mall Source: Meyers, LLC 5

Competitive Auto Centers and Stand Alone Dealership The Subject Site s trade area contains four well established Auto Centers/Malls Irvine Auto Center 6.5 miles, Capistrano Auto Center 11.

Stand Alone Dealerships Capistrano Auto Center Family Honda Rancho Santa Margarita 0.1 Miles Santa Margarita Ford 0.2 Miles Penske Toyota Rancho Santa Margarita 0.

6 Competitive Auto Centers and Stand Alone Dealership The Subject Site s trade area contains four well established Auto Centers/Malls Irvine Auto Center 6.5 miles, Capistrano Auto Center 11.1 miles, Tustin Auto Center 12.5 miles, and Santa Ana Auto Mall 14.5 miles. Along with these centers, 23 competitive stand alone autodealers are present. Stand Alone Dealerships Capistrano Auto Center Family Honda Rancho Santa Margarita 0.1 Miles Santa Margarita Ford 0.2 Miles Penske Toyota Rancho Santa Margarita 0.4 Miles Foothill Ranch Mercedes Benz 3.9 Miles Phillips Mazda 5.4 Miles Irvine Subaru 6.3 Miles The Irvine Auto Center Chevrolet of Irvine 6.5 Miles Kia of Irvine 6.5 Miles Fladeboe Buick 6.5 Miles Fladeboe GMC 6.5 Miles Power Volvo Irvine 6.5 Miles Fladeboe Honda 6.6 Miles Tuttle Click Ford 6.6 Miles Tuttle Click Lincoln 6.6 Miles Fladeboe Volkswagen 6.6 Miles Tuttle Click Hyundai 6.6 Miles OC NISSAN IRVINE 6.6 Miles Tuttle Click Mazda 6.7 Miles Tuttle Click Jeep 6.7 Miles Tuttle Click Chrysler 6.7 Miles Tuttle Click Dodge 6.7 Miles Stand Alone Dealerships Fisker 6.8 Miles Irvine BMW 6.8 Miles Irvine Mini 6.8 Miles South County Lexus 7.0 Miles Allen GMC 7.1 Miles Allen Hyundai 7.1 Miles Mission Viejo Audi 7.1 Miles CarMax 7.1 Miles Infiniti Mission Viejo 7.1 Miles Power Toyota 7.3 Miles Jaguar Mission Viejo 7.4 Miles Land Rover Mission Viejo 7.4 Miles Norm Reeves Acura 7.5 Miles Mercedes Benz of Laguna Niguel 7.8 Miles Smart Center Laguna Niguel 7.8 Miles Capistrano Chrysler 11.1 Miles Capistrano Jeep 11.1 Miles Capistrano Dodge 11.1 Miles Capistrano Ram 11.1 Miles Capistrano Volkswagen 11.2 Miles Capistrano Ford 11.7 Miles Capistrano Toyota 11.8 Miles Capistrano Scion 11.8 Miles Weseloh Kia 11.8 Miles Weseloh Honda 11.9 Miles Weseloh Nissan 12.0 Miles Tustin Auto Center Tustin Cadillac 12.4 Miles Tustin Lexus 12.4 Miles Tustin Hyundai 12.5 Miles Infiniti Of Tustin 12.5 Miles Tustin Nissan 12.5 Miles Tustin Buick 12.5 Miles Tustin Toyota 12.5 Miles Tustin Scion 12.5 Miles DCH Tustin Acura 12.5 Miles Power Tustin Lincoln 12.6 Miles Tuttle Click Tustin Ram 12.6 Miles Tuttle Click Tustin Chrysler 12.6 Miles Tuttle Click Tustin Dodge 12.6 Miles Tuttle Click Tustin Jeep 12.6 Miles Power Tustin Ford 12.6 Miles Tustin Gmc 12.6 Miles Mv 1 Orange County 12.6 Miles Tustin Buick 12.6 Miles Santa Ana Auto Mall Freeway Honda 14.5 Miles Crevier BMW 14.6 Miles Crevier MINI 14.6 Miles Commonwealth VW 14.6 Miles Commonwealth Audi 14.6 Miles Stand Alone Dealerships Newport Lexus 14.8 Miles Fletcher Jones Mercedes 14.8 Miles 6

7 Competitive Brand Market Share Representation Within 15 miles of the Subject Site 32 unique auto brands are represented at 72 brand locations. This mix of auto brands represents 97.6 % of all auto salesin the United States in Auto brands not represented within 15 miles of the subject site are Isuzu, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Saab, and Suzuki. However, within Orange County there are 0 Isuzu, 3 Mitsubishi, 1 Porsche, 0 Saab (Out of Business), and 1 Suzuki dealerships. U.S. Total Vehicle Sales Market Share by Vehicle Manufactorer Group (2012) Group Market Share (%) Brand GM Chevrolet GMC Cadillac Buick Ford Ford Lincoln Toyota Toyota Scion Lexus Fiat S.p.A Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Honda 9.62 Honda Acura Hyundai 8.52 Hyundai Kia Nissan 7.72 Nissan Infiniti Volkswagen 3.91 VW Audi Daimler AG 2.76 Mercedes Smart BMW 2.35 BMW Mini Fuji Heavy Industries 2.28 Subaru Mazda 1.87 Mazda Geely Automobile 0.46 Volvo Tata Motors, Ltd Land Rover Jaguar Total Market Share Additional Brands/Dealers in Trade Area: Fisker MV 1 Carmax Source: Wards Auto and Meyers, LLC 7

8 Demographics 3.0 Miles Rancho Santa Margarita has a much higher concentration of high income households and higher net worth than any of the surrounding competitive communities. This offers the opportunity for commercial success at the Subject Site that may be offered by investigating additional commercial and retail opportunities not so reliant on location and proximity to major highways. Auto Malls Income RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana <$34, % 22.5% 16.0% 17.9% 31.0% $35,000 $49, % 11.6% 9.8% 11.0% 15.5% $50,000 $74, % 17.3% 15.4% 15.8% 18.9% $75, % 48.6% 58.8% 55.3% 34.5% Total 33,302 42,173 35,238 62,496 64,362 Median Household Income $100,616 $72,164 $92,017 $83,606 $53,220 Average Household Income $119,736 $94,651 $116,852 $103,932 $73,570 Per Capita Income $43,311 $39,056 $44,510 $35,176 $19,822 Soure: ESRI 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Income RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana <$34,999 $35,000 $49,999 $50,000 $74,999 $75,000+ Auto Malls Ne t Worth RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana <$49, % 26.0% 24.6% 36.1% 54.7% $50,000 $99, % 11.3% 9.3% 10.6% 10.9% $100,000 $249, % 17.8% 13.9% 12.9% 12.1% $250, % 44.9% 52.2% 40.5% 22.4% Total 33,303 42,173 35,238 62,495 64,362 Median Net Worth $329,322 $191,777 $279,608 $124,731 $37,299 Average Net Worth $1,045,265 $790,958 $991,206 $750,479 $390,489 Soure: ESRI 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Net Worth RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana <$49,999 $50,000 $99,999 $100,000 $249,999 $250,000+ Auto Malls Education RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana High School Graduate 15.1% 19.5% 17.2% 15.1% 18.0% Some College 31.8% 31.8% 29.9% 25.9% 20.8% Bachelor's Degree 34.6% 27.1% 27.8% 29.1% 13.7% Grad/Professional Degree 15.0% 13.1% 16.2% 17.8% 7.4% Total 60,337 83,865 66, , ,757 Soure: ESRI 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% High School Graduate Education Some College Bachelor's Degree Grad/Professional Degree RSM Irvine Capistrano Tustin Santa Ana 8

9 Taxable Retail Sales by Total Retail Sales Total taxable retail sales growth within Rancho Santa Margarita out paced all other competitive markets (cities with Auto Centers) up until Since 2009 Rancho Santa Margarita has been comparable in performance with the rest of the competitive market. Initial growth between 2002 and 2006 shows there may be an opportunity for additional retail sales growth opportunity within the city. Taxable Retail Sales Total Retail Sales Competitive Cities Rancho Santa Margarita 347, , , , , , , , ,076 N/A Irvine 2,324,176 2,676,430 2,909,053 3,005,880 3,197,891 3,215,607 2,709,444 2,297,074 2,408,289 N/A Tustin 1,262,380 1,306,159 1,421,338 1,489,704 1,474,902 1,497,731 1,440,485 1,299,819 1,378,857 N/A Laguna Niquel 699, , , , , , , , ,416 N/A Mission Viejo 1,114,520 1,186,641 1,316,929 1,399,337 1,394,587 1,305,358 1,163,917 1,045,186 1,095,922 N/A Total 5,747,559 6,413,977 6,999,658 7,277,031 7,460,375 7,357,788 6,554,289 5,728,478 6,022,560 N/A 150 Taxable Retail Sales Total Retail Sales (Index 2002) RSM Irvine Tustin Laguna Niquel Mission Viejo Total Source: California State Board of Equilization and Meyers, LLC 9 Index (2002)

10 Taxable Retail Sales by Total Retail Establishments 10 Rancho Santa Margarita has shown consistent retail establishment growth over the last decade, and has out performed the competitive market on a storefront/establishment basis. Taxable Retail Sales Total Retail Establishments Competitive Cities Rancho Santa Margarita Irvine 2,197 2,420 2,729 2,959 3,098 3,002 3,110 2,611 3,759 3,896 Tustin ,001 1, ,078 1,299 1,317 1,336 Laguna Niquel ,137 1,140 1,169 Mission Viejo 1,228 1,298 1,366 1,418 1,378 1,354 1,386 1,711 1,723 1,727 Total 5,479 5,915 6,448 6,916 6,938 6,717 7,021 7,496 8,680 8, Taxable Retail Sales Total Retail Establishments (Index 2002) RSM Irvine Tustin Laguna Niquel Mission Viejo Total Index (2002) Source: California State Board of Equilization and Meyers, LLC

11 Taxable Retail Sales by Motor Vehicles and Parts Sales 11 Motor vehicle and parts sales, within Rancho Santa Margarita, decreased more substantially then any other competitive market (cities with auto centers) between Since 2009 only Mission Viejo has maintained sales, while the remaining competitive markets and RSM have remained well below previous performances. Rancho Santa Margarita has performed the worst of all the marketsover the last decade. Taxable Retail Sales Motor Vehicle and Parts Sales Competitive Cities Rancho Santa Margarita 101, , , , , , ,246 67,054 72,829 N/A Irvine 661, , , , , , , , ,714 N/A Tustin 458, , , , , , , , ,458 N/A Laguna Niquel 165, , , , , , , , ,451 N/A Mission Viejo 151, , , , , , , , ,065 N/A Total 1,539,705 1,807,852 1,986,357 1,978,839 1,912,777 1,815,444 1,379,451 1,132,305 1,219,517 N/A 200 Taxable Retail Sales Motor Vehicle and Parts Sales (Index 2002) RSM Irvine Tustin Laguna Niquel Mission Viejo Total Index (2002) Source: California State Board of Equilization and Meyers, LLC

12 Taxable Retail Sales by Motor Vehicles and Parts Establishments 12 Rancho Santa Margarita s poor taxable sales performance can not be attributed to a lack of establishments within the city however. RSM has continued to grow with respect to store front/establishments over the last decade and is second to only Irvine in growth over this time period. Taxable Retail Sales Motor Vehicle and Parts Establishments Competitive Cities Rancho Santa Margarita Irvine Tustin Laguna Niquel Mission Viejo Total Taxable Retail Sales Motor Vehicle and Parts Establishments (Index 2002) RSM Irvine Tustin Laguna Niquel Mission Viejo Index (2002) 120 Total Source: California State Board of Equilization and Meyers, LLC

13 U.S. Vehicle Sales U.S.Vehicle Sales within the last three years have shown year on year growth averaging 11.7% per year. Year Total Sales % Change ,149, ,549, % ,117, % ,198, % ,411, % ,116, % ,456, % ,497, % ,967, % ,414, % ,811, % ,472, % ,138, % ,967, % ,298, % ,444, % ,048, % ,460, % ,493, % ,601, % ,772, % ,040, % ,785, % Source: Wards Auto and Meyers, LLC 13

14 Limiting Conditions Contact Information This market analysis was prepared by Meyers, LLC, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the real estate industry. It has been commissioned by Rancho Canyon, LLC. Michelle Wolkoys, Principal served as Project Director and oversaw all aspects of this assignment. Ryan Early, Senior Consultant, assisted in fieldwork and development of product and pricing recommendations. Follow up questions should be directed to Michelle Wolkoys at (714) or mwolkoys@meyersllc.com. Limiting Conditions Rancho Canyon, LLC is responsible for representations about its development plans, marketing expectations and for disclosure of any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results. There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and the differences may be material. We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report. Paymentof any and all of our fees and expensesis notin any way contingentupon any factor other than our providing services related to this report. The use of this report is limited to Rancho Canyon, LLC and its partners for internal team analysis and discussion purposes. 14

IIHS head restraints & seats geometric ratings for older model vehicles

IIHS head restraints & seats geometric ratings for older model vehicles Ratings of seat/head restraints in newer model cars are based on restraint geometry (distance behind and below the head of a seated