RETAIL SALES SURVEY. Real Sales in October 2017
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1 RETAIL SALES SURVEY October 2017 The Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey confirmed stronger retail sales in October 2017, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) increasing to after growth accelerated from 1.8% (yoy) last period to 2.2% (yoy). Retailers cited robust food sales as the main driver of growth, increasing from 7.6% (yoy) to 9.9% (yoy). Regionally, respondents in Surabaya reported the strongest sales gains in October 2017, where RSI growth soared from 5.9% (yoy) to 10.2% (yoy). Retailers predicted the current sales uptick to persist into November 2017, buoyed by non-food sales, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) accelerating 2.9% (yoy) in the next period to reach a level of Meanwhile, the Survey also revealed that respondents expected more intense inflationary pressures in the upcoming three months (January 2018).. Real Sales in October 2017 Retailers confirmed stronger sales in October The Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey confirmed stronger retail sales in October 2017, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) increasing to after growth accelerated from 1.8% (yoy) last period to 2.2% (yoy) (Graphs 1 and 2). Retailers cited robust food sales as the main driver of growth, increasing from 7.6% (yoy) to 9.9% (yoy). Strong food sales were edged up by ready-to-consume foods and tobacco, with growth accelerating respectively from 13.8% (yoy) and 4.9% (yoy) in the previous period to 17.2% (yoy) and 15.5% (yoy) in October 2017 (Graph 3). On a monthly basis, retailers enjoyed a bump in sales during the month of October, reversing the previous -0.4% (mtm) contraction to record positive growth of 0.6% (mtm). Most commodity groups posted gains, especially automotive fuels, which bucked the previous -2.9% (mtm) contraction to achieve positive 3.8% (mtm), along with other goods, that improved from -4.4% (mtm) to 1.2% (mtm), particularly cosmetics, eyewear, jewellery and timepieces. Methodology The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI (Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in The real index presented with 2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living Survey (SBH). On 1
2 Graph 1. Real Retail Sales Index Graph 2. Real Sales Growth Graph 3. Real Sales Annual Growth of Food & Non Food Commodity Groups Graph 4. Real Sales Annual Growth of Cultural & Recreation Goods and Other Goods Commodity Groups Graph 5. Real Sales Annual Growth of Motor Vehicles Part & Accessories and Automotive Fuels Commodity Groups Graph 6. Real Sales Annual Growth of Information & Communication Equipment and Other Household Equipment Commodity Groups 2
3 Graph 7. Real Sales Annual Growth of Other Other Goods and Clothings Commodity Groups Real Sales Expectations for November 2017 Retailers predicted further sales growth in November Retailers predicted the current sales uptick to persist into November 2017, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) accelerating from 2.2% (yoy) in October 2017 to 2.9% (yoy) to reach a level of (Graphs 1 and 2). The gains are supported by a shallower contraction of non-food sales, which retailers predicted to improve from -8.1% (yoy) to -6.5% (yoy), primarily driven by growth of automotive fuels speeding up from 4.3% (yoy) to 6.5% (yoy). In contrast, respondents predicted food sales to fade, with growth moderating from 9.9% (yoy) to 9.6% (yoy) as a corollary of weaker foodstuff sales, which were predicted to contract from 0.9% (yoy) in October 2017 to -2.6% (yoy). On a monthly basis, respondents predicted real sales in November 2017 to grow by 2.6% (mtm), up from 0.6% (mtm) in October Retailers expected other household equipment to post the strongest growth in November 2017 at 4.1% (mtm), followed by food, beverages and tobacco at 3.8% (mtm). Regional Real Sales Retailers in Surabaya reported the strongest sales gains in October Regionally, retailers in several cities confirmed an annual sales surge in October 2017, most significantly in Surabaya, where RSI growth soared from 5.9% (yoy) to 10.2% (yoy). Furthermore, gains were also reported by retailers in two other cities that nevertheless continued to face contractions, namely Denpasar and Manado, where the RSI improved respectively from -12.6% (yoy) and -3.3% (yoy) in September 2017 to -11.0% (yoy) and -5.6% (yoy) in October 2017 (Graph 8). For November 2017, however, retailers in six of the cities surveyed predicted stronger RSI growth, particularly in Banjarmasin, increasing from 43.3% (yoy) to 56.6% (yoy), and in Denpasar, improving from -11.0% (yoy) to 1.5% (yoy). 3
4 Graph 8. Performance of Real Sales Index (RSI) Annual Growth in Jakarta, Bandung, Denpasar, Banjarmasin dan Surabaya (yoy) Price Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Respondents predicted inflationary pressures on goods and services to escalate at the beginning of Respondents predicted inflationary pressures on goods and services to accumulate at the beginning of 2018, as demonstrated by an increase in the 3- month Price Expectations Index (PEI) from to (Graph 9) in January Congruently, retailers also predicted more intense inflationary pressures in April 2018, with the 6-month PEI rising from a level of to (Graph 10). Graph 9. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Months Grafik 10. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months 4
5 Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Respondents predicted a sales slump in January Respondents predicted a sales slump in January 2018, reflecting a dip in the 3-month Sales Expectations Index (SEI), falling from the month earlier to Additionally, retailers predicted a further sales decline in April 2018, with the 6-month SEI dropping from to (Graph 11). Graph 11. Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months 5
6 Appendix Table 1. Real Retail Sales Index by Categories Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov* Motor vehicles part and Accessories Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Automotive Fuels Information & Communication Equipment Other Household Equipment Cultural and Recreation Goods Other Goods o/w Clothing TOTAL INDEX Table 2. Growth (y-o-y) of Real Retail Sales Index Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov * Motor vehicles part and Accessories Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Automotive Fuels Information & Communication Equipment Other Household Equipment Cultural and Recreation Goods Other Goods o/w Clothing TOTAL INDEX Table 3. Growth (m-t-m) of Real Retail Sales Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov* Motor vehicles part and Accessories Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Automotive Fuels Information & Communication Equipment Other Household Equipment Cultural and Recreation Goods Other Goods o/w Clothing TOTAL INDEX
7 Table 4. Real Sales Index by City Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov * Jakarta Bandung Surabaya Medan Semarang ** Banjarmasin Makasar Manado Denpasar TOTAL INDEX **) Semarang and Purwokerto Data Table 5. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agst Sept Okt Nov * Jakarta Bandung Surabaya Medan Semarang ** Banjarmasin Makasar Manado Denpasar TOTAL INDEX **) Semarang and Purwokerto Data Table 6. Monthly Growth (m-t-m) of Real Sales by City Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov* Jakarta Bandung Surabaya Medan Semarang ** Banjarmasin Makasar Manado Denpasar TOTAL INDEX **) Semarang and Purwokerto Data Table 7. Expectations for Prices and Sales Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Agst Sept Oct* General Price Expectations - Next 3 months Next 6 months Sales Expectations - Next 3 months Next 6 months
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