Internalisation of external cost at the Paris-Amsterdam corridor. Huib van Essen, CE Delft 24 June 2011

Transcription

1 Internalisation of external cost at the Paris-Amsterdam corridor Huib van Essen, CE Delft 24 June 2011

2 Outline Context and overview of the study External costs and infrastructure costs Baseline scenario and internalisation scenarios Impacts of the scenarios on: Transport demand and modal split Revenues from taxes and charges CO 2 and congestion (time losses) External costs Illustrative example Conclusions Next steps Huib van Essen / June 24,

3 Context TEN-T project canal Seine-Scheldt Eurovignette Directive: Commission proposal on amendment (July 2008) Recent amendment enables internalisation of some external cost: air pollution and noise New White Paper and Strategy for decarbonising transport: internalisation and specific targets for model shift High priority for decarbonising transport: 60% target for 2050 Objectives for reducing air pollution, noise and accidents Huib van Essen / June 24,

4 Study overview: aim and scope Aim: Assess the impacts of transport pricing schemes Based on the external and infrastructure costs Strategic EU freight corridor: Paris Amsterdam (and related regions) Scope: Road, rail and inland waterway transport Long distance traffic France, Belgium the Netherlands Huib van Essen / June 24,

5 Corridor Paris - Amsterdam Huib van Essen / June 24,

6 Methodology external & infrastructure costs Infrastructure cost data: For all three modes For all three countries made consistent Validated by scientific committee External costs: Climate, air pollution, noise, accidents, congestion and upstream Corridor values in line with IMPACT handbook (2008): marginal cost Data on fuel consumption, emissions and load factors made consistent with the traffic model (improvements in 2020 and 2050) Existing taxes and charges: On vehicle registration & owning, electricity, fuel taxes, infrastructure use (tolls), subsidies Huib van Essen / June 24,

7 External & infrastructure costs in ,0 6,0 Eurocent/ tonn-km 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 External & infra Taxes and External costs Taxes and External costs Taxes and External costs Taxes and Taxes and charges Fixed km-related Fuel-related External & infra costs Infrastructure Fixed Infrastructure variable km-related Fuel-related Truck comb. 40T Btrain Diesel Btrain Elec. ECMT Vb, Large Rhine Ships 135m Note: - km-related external cost = air pollution, noise accidents, congestion - fuel-related external cost = climate + upstream Huib van Essen / June 24,

8 Scenario overview: BAU Business as usual and MSCP marginal social cost pricing BAU- Reference scenario: Current taxes and charges Needed to see the full impacts of internalisation policies Scenario 1 Pragmatic MSCP: Marginal infrastructure & external cost for all modes For road fuel taxes not lowered to level of CO 2 cost but left unchanged. Congestion charges based on model calculations Politically not very realistic and not in line with recommendations of Eurovignette directive but sound scientific basis Huib van Essen / June 24,

9 Scenario overview: Eurovignette Scenario 2 Eurovignette proposal: Based on 2008 Commission proposal and in line with the 2011 amendment Focus on road: charging for total infra cost plus air pollution and noise Congestion charges based on IMPACT values No changes for IWT and rail Very realistic proposal for short term Scenario 3 - Eurovignette proposal extended: Same as scenario 2 with additional carbon tax on fuel for all modes External costs (air pollution and noise) charges for rail and IWT (like for road) Congestion charges based on model calculations More collaborative and realistic for medium term Huib van Essen / June 24,

10 Scenario overview: Target oriented Scenario 4 - Target oriented To test the maximum impact of pricing on modal shift and emissions Carbon tax of 40 (2020) and 85 (2050) per t CO 2 ; doubled for road Km-charges for road: twice all infrastructure and external costs: air pollution, noise and accidents Marginal infrastructure and external costs for IWT and rail Congestion charges for road based on model calculations Scenario 5 Eurovignette proposal Boiteux values Same as scenario 3, but with French external cost values from Boiteux methodology (differs from IMPACT) Huib van Essen / June 24,

11 Initial impacts on price levels Relative changes in average tkm prices on the corridor Paris-Amsterdam 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% IWT Road Rail Rail electric SC1 - MSCP SC3 - Eurovignette extended SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values SC2 - Eurovignette basic SC4 - Target oriented pricing Huib van Essen / June 24,

12 Costs for an average trip on the corridor /tonne IW T BAU IW T SC1 IW T SC2 IW T SC3 IW T SC4 IW T SC5 Road BAU Road SC1 Road SC2 Road SC3 Road SC4 Road SC5 Rail BAU Rail SC1 Rail SC2 Internal costs Fuel, electricity and energy taxes Infrastructure charges Other km charges, vehicle taxes Congesti Huib van Essen / June 24,

13 Impacts on tonnes for the corridor in % Relative change in tons per mode 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% IWT Road Rail SC1 - MSCP SC2 - Eurovignette SC3 - Eurovignette extended SC4 - Target oriented SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values Huib van Essen / June 24,

14 Impacts on tonne-kilometres for the corridor in 2020 Relative change in tonne kilometres 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% IWT Road Rail Total SC1 - M SCP SC3 - Eurovignette extended SC2 - Eurovignette basic SC4 - Target oriented pric ing SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values Huib van Essen / June 24,

15 Impacts on revenues on Total revenues (mln ) Baseline SC1 - MSCP SC2 - (BAU) Eurovignette basic SC3 - SC4 - Target Eurovignette oriented extended pricing SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values Fuel/electricity tax External cost charge Infrastructure charge Congestion charge Vehicle tax Huib van Essen / June 24,

16 Impacts on CO 2 emissions in CO2 emissions (Mton) Baseline (BAU) SC1 - MSCP SC2 - Eurovignette basic SC3 - Eurovignette extended IWT Road Rail SC4 - Target oriented pricing SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values Huib van Essen / June 24,

17 Impacts on external costs in External costs (mln ) Baseline SC1 - MSCP SC2 - (BAU) Eurovignette basic SC3 - SC4 - Target Eurovignette oriented extended pricing Accidents Congestion Noise Climate Air pollution SC5 - Eurovignette Boiteux values Huib van Essen / June 24,

18 Main conclusions on scenario analysis (2020) Significant modal shift (up to +30% tonnes by IWT and 25% by rail; 7% to 17% in Eurovignette scenarios) Higher revenues (doubled in Eurovignette scenarios) Related impacts: Higher vehicle loads (11% in Euroviognette scenarios) High reduction of congestion (50%) Lower CO 2 emissions (20% in Eurovignette scenarios) Lower pollutant emisisons (up to 30% in Eurovignette scenarios) Strong reduction of external costs (up to 14% in Eurovignette) Huib van Essen / June 24,

19 Strategic considerations Short term: charging full infrastructure, air pollution and noise costs: Technically feasible No legal barriers Medium term: charging for all external costs for all modes and marginal infra costs for rail and IWT Strong and smart pricing policy fits well in long term strategy for decarbonizing transport (e.g. carbon taxation) Key evidence of the study: multimodal and international tolling is rational, efficient in terms of competitiveness of rail and IWT Important revenues generated Next phase in IWT emission standards recommended Huib van Essen / June 24,

20 Thank you for your attention Leaflet summarising the study available in three languages (ENG / F / NL) on website Study itself available on request (ENG / NL): CE Delft: Huib van Essen or via website