North Dakota Industrial Commission. Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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1 North Dakota Industrial Commission Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority October 24, 2017
2 Presentation Outline Current oil transportation dynamics Understanding current and future oil production Pricing update Activity Oil forecasts North Dakota natural gas production Flaring and gas capture Natural gas liquids Pipeline construction update Refrac economics JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 2
3 Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation August 2017 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 3 3
4 Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 4 4
5 Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 5
6 Rail Destinations Market Share (July 2017) Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 6
7 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 7
8 Presentation Outline Current oil transportation dynamics Understanding current and future oil production Pricing update Activity Oil forecasts North Dakota natural gas production Flaring and gas capture Natural gas Liquids Pipeline construction update Refrac economics JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 8
9 North Dakota Oil Differential Based on EIA Data 9 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 9
10 North Dakota Impact of Smaller Discount 2016 Weighted Average Discount: $7.71 June/July/August 2017 Wt. Average Discount: $5.61 $2.10/BBL Improvement Post DAPL Commercial In-Service 96,148,772 Taxable Barrels In June/July/August 2017 Wt. Avg. Tax Rate in June/July/August 2017: 9.74% Three Month Revenue Impact 9.74% x 96,148,772 x $2.10 = $19,666,269 Additional State Revenue When Compared to Avg Discount (~$6+ Million Per Month) Does Not Include Royalty Owner and Industry Revenue Impact 10 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 10
11 North Dakota Drilling Activity JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 11
12 Statewide Oil Performance Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide (Minimum 1 bopd) JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 12
13 Statewide Gas Performance Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide (Minimum 1 bopd) JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 13
14 North Dakota Oil Production Forecast JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 14
15 North Dakota Oil Production Forecast 15 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 15
16 North Dakota Forecast Activity Assumptions JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 16 16
17 Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 17
18 TransCanada: Energy East Canceled Proposed Upland Pipeline Connection to Williston Basin Successful Open Season During 2014 Initial Capacity 220,000 BOPD (Expandable to 300,000 BOPD) Target In-service Date: 2020 Energy East Project Capacity 1.1 MMBOPD JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Map: NEB NDPA Upland Addition 18
19 Presentation Outline Current oil transportation dynamics Understanding current and future oil production Pricing update Activity Oil forecasts North Dakota natural gas production Flaring and gas capture Natural gas liquids Pipeline construction update Refrac economics JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 19
20 NDPA ND Gas Production Forecast JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 20
21 Solving the Flaring Challenge GREEN % of gas captured and sold Blue % flared from zero sales wells Orange % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold. Simple Terms Blue Lack of pipelines Orange Challenges on existing infrastructure Statewide Aug 2017 Data Non-Confidential Wells JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 21
22 Solving the Flaring Challenge JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 22
23 Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure Whiting WBI Transmission JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 23
24 North Dakota Captured* NGL s JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Non-flared NGL s & Assumes 10 GPM 24 24
25 Major NGL Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure Kinder JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 25
26 NGL Takeaway Options Are Limited 26 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 26
27 Presentation Outline Current oil transportation dynamics Understanding current and future oil production Pricing update Activity Oil forecasts North Dakota natural gas production Flaring and gas capture Natural gas liquids Pipeline construction update Refrac economics JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 27
28 North Dakota Pipeline Construction JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Sources: NDIC & PHMSA 28
29 North Dakota Pipeline Construction JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Sources: NDIC & PHMSA 29
30 New Miles and Well Completions JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 30
31 ,262 mi 2 6,493 mi 2 9,866 mi ,735 mi 2 16,267 mi 2 13,428 mi 2 2 Mile Buffer Around New Wells By Year ,053 mi 2 8,433 mi 2 4,206 mi YTD 3,578 mi 2 Background Map: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 31
32 New Miles and Activity Footprint *2017 Forecasted JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 32
33 Predicting New Miles With Activity Footprint JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 33
34 Evolution of Oil Gathering in ND Statewide Totals JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 34
35 Evolution of Oil Gathering in ND JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 35
36 Gas Gathering & Processing JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 36
37 Gas Gathering & Processing JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 37
38 Solving the Flaring Challenge JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 38
39 Presentation Outline Current oil transportation dynamics Understanding current and future oil production Pricing update Activity Oil forecasts North Dakota natural gas production Flaring and gas capture Natural gas liquids Pipeline construction update Refrac economics JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 39
40 Bakken Refracs Updated From Previous Refrac Work 185 Wells, Up From 142 List Cleaned Up With DMR Assistance JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 40
41 Refracs In the Bakken* *While careful work was performed to discover as many non-confidential, modern refracs as possible, this data set is likely not all inclusive. JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 41
42 Refrac Completion Year* *While careful work was performed to discover as many non-confidential, modern refracs as possible, this data set is likely not all inclusive. JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 42
43 Example: Pre/Post Refrac Oil JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 43
44 Example: Pre/Post Refrac Oil JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 44
45 Performance Pre/Post Refrac JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 45
46 Performance Pre/Post Refrac JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 46
47 Example: 257,000 BBLS of Incremental Production JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 47 47
48 Refrac Economics Methodology Incremental Production Above Original Well Decline Profile Assumes Refrac Decline Curve Profile Matches Original Well JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 48
49 Refrac Summary of $45 Wellhead Oil JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 49
50 Refrac Breakeven Summary JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 50
51 Contact Information Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) Websites: JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 51 51
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