TRADE WATCH * 4 th Quarter 2010 To see the note and data updates visit:

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized TRADEWATCH * 4 th Quarter21 Toseethenoteanddataupdatesvisit: Authors: CarolineFreund (cfreund@worldbank.org) IleanaCristinaNeagu (ineagu@worldbank.org) TheWorldBank DECRG * TRADE WATCH is a quarterly note that follows international trade flows from a global perspective. It contains upto-date trade data from an array of sources along with an analysis from Caroline Freund and Ileana Cristina Neagu, international trade specialists in the Development Economics Research Group, covering issues such as import and export growth at national, regional and industry levels, exchange rate fluctuations and quantity and price decomposition of trade. The goal of the note is to provide high quality and timely information to World Bank units and stakeholders. The report is supported by funding the governments of Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom through the Multidonor Trust Fund for Trade and Development.

2 TRADE UPDATE ROBUST TRADE GROWTH Exports from South Asia surge in the fourth quarter. Exports are strong in Eastern Europe in the fourth quarter. Imports decline in North and South America and South Asia. Data for the fourth quarter of 21 show continued export and import growth. Tables 1 and 2 show seasonally adjusted export and import growth, respectively, 1 using 7 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 61 countries. Q4 21 data indicate a 6.5 percent increase in exports and a 4.4 percent increase in imports. However, some regional disparities are highlighted in quarterly growth rates by region, shown in Figures 1 and 2. 2 The dark bars represent the most recent quarter s growth rates, and the lighter bars show the previous quarter s growth rates. Exports strengthen across Eastern Europe, with some countries including Romania, Slovak Republic and Ukraine seeing substantial increases in growth, as depicted in Figures 3 and 4. This period s leading region in terms of exports growth is South Asia, with India and Pakistan s figures nearing or exceeding 2%. At the same time, Indian imports saw a significantly negative growth. The growth picture for imports also indicates a slowdown in most LAC countries, as well as in the United States and Canada. Trade fell fast and furiously across countries since the onset of the financial crisis in the fall of 28. Figure 5 compares trade growth (month over same month the previous year) in this crisis and in previous downturns (1975, 1982, 1991, and 21), using monthly data in constant U.S. dollars for a balanced sample of 4 countries that report data from January 196 through December 21. Data are matched so that year zero is the lowest point of the contraction. Growth leading up to the crisis was higher and the fall deeper in this episode than in previous downturns. Of special interest, the recovery also appears to be much steeper in this crisis than in previous episodes. The graph highlights the completion of a V-shaped recovery, with growth returning to normal levels. Figure 6 shows that trade has been recovering at almost twice the growth rate of the period and increased nearly 5 percent since its lowest point in February 29. While the trade value remains around 16 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak, this is partly driven by surging commodity prices which fueled a run-up in trade values before the crisis. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining/recovering the fastest. Table 3 shows U.S. import growth by broad sector 1 We converted nominal trade to year s 2 constant dollars growth and seasonally adjusted using country-month fixed effects. 2 Africa and the Middle East are not included because there are not enough countries reporting data for credible statistics. 2

3 relative to the same quarter of the previous year. Similar data for Japan (measured in Yen) are shown in Table 4. 3 In the US, data for the 4 th quarter of 21 show significant improvement across sectors as compared with the 4 th quarter of 29, especially in areas such as footwear and metals, but also in input sectors like stone and glass. With the exception of foodstuffs, import levels of all Japanese sectors exceed those in Q4 of 29. Leading Japanese sectors include metals, stone and glass, plastics and rubbers. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, ineagu@worldbank.org with Trade Watch in the subject. For previous notes and more trade statistics visit the Trade Watch webpage at 3 Aggregate figures for Japan in Table 5 are calculated from Yen values and therefore are different from Tables 1, 2 and 3 which use data in $US. 3

4 Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars Seasonally Adjusted) st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Croatia Cyprus CzechRepublic Denmark Ecuador Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Greece HongKong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Korea,Republicof Latvia Average Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies.

5 Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars Seasonally Adjusted) st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Lithuania Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Mexico Netherlands NewZealand Norway Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania RussianFederation Singapore Slovakia Slovenia SouthAfrica Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan,ProvinceofChina Thailand Turkey Ukraine UnitedKingdom UnitedStates VietNam Average Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 5

6 Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars Seasonally Adjusted) st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Croatia Cyprus CzechRepublic Denmark Ecuador Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Greece HongKong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Korea,Republicof Latvia Average Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 6

7 Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars Seasonally Adjusted) st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Lithuania Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Mexico Netherlands NewZealand Norway Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania RussianFederation Singapore Slovakia Slovenia SouthAfrica Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan,ProvinceofChina Thailand Turkey Ukraine UnitedKingdom UnitedStates VietNam Average Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 7

8 Table 3: U.S. Import Growth by Industry (Percentage Change in U.S. Dollars relative to the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Animal & Animal Products Vegetable Products Foodstuffs Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Industries Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs Wood & Wood Products Textiles Footwear / Headgear Stone / Glass Metals Machinery / Electrical Transportation Miscellaneous Total Source: U.S.I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Table 4: Japan s Import Growth by Industry (Percentage change in Japanese Yen relative to the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Animal & Animal Products Vegetable Products Foodstuffs Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Industries Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs Wood & Wood Products Textiles Footwear / Headgear Stone / Glass Metals Machinery / Electrical Transportation Miscellaneous Total Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations.

9 Figure 1: Quarterly Export Growth* by Region 2 15 Previous Current 1 5 EAP NOA EUR LCR ECA SAS 5 1 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3 rd quarter of 21 to the 4 th quarter of 21 in Current and from the 2 nd quarter of 21 to the 3 rd quarter of 21 in Previous ; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 2: Quarterly Import Growth* by Region 2 Previous 15 Current 1 5 SAS LCR NOA EUR ECA EAP 5 1 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3 rd quarter of 21 to the 4 th quarter of 21 in Current and from the 2 nd quarter of 21 to the 3 rd quarter of 21 in Previous ; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index.

10 Figure 3: Quarterly Export Growth by Country Previous Pakistan Indonesia Ecuador Greece India Lithuania Romania Estonia Cyprus Ukraine Italy VietNam Brazil Croatia Finland Colombia Slovakia RussianFederation Turkey Norway NewZealand SouthAfrica Peru CzechRepublic Sweden Australia Portugal Spain Malaysia Slovenia Thailand Switzerland Mexico UnitedKingdom Canada Germany Netherlands UnitedStates France Japan Korea,Republicof China Latvia Ireland Singapore Bulgaria Kazakhstan Hungary Chile Israel Taiwan,ProvinceofChina Belgium Poland Luxembourg HongKong Denmark Malta Iceland Argentina Philippines Egypt Current Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3 rd quarter of 21 to the 4 th quarter of 21 in Current and from the 2 nd quarter of 21 to the 3 rd quarter of 21 in Previous ; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 4: Quarterly Import Growth by Country 25 2 Previous Current Indonesia Turkey Israel Estonia Ukraine VietNam Cyprus Bulgaria China Lithuania Greece Philippines Pakistan Italy Portugal Taiwan,ProvinceofChina Netherlands NewZealand UnitedKingdom Egypt Slovenia Australia Latvia Malaysia Spain Thailand Luxembourg Chile CzechRepublic Hungary Belgium Germany Argentina France Korea,Republicof Switzerland Japan Finland Romania Slovakia Sweden Poland RussianFederation HongKong Mexico Denmark Norway Singapore Colombia Brazil Croatia Iceland Ecuador Peru UnitedStates Canada Kazakhstan SouthAfrica Ireland India Malta Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3 rd quarter of 21 to the 4 th quarter of 21 in Current and from the 2 nd quarter of 21 to the 3 rd quarter of 21 in Previous ; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 1

11 Figure 5: Month-Over-Month Trade Growth, Now and Then Series1 PastMean PastMedian 5 Source: Datastream, I.M.F., U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and author s calculations. Data in US dollars deflated using U.S. consumer price index for a balanced sample of 4 countries. Figure 6: Natural Logarithm of World Imports m7 2m1 21m1 21m4 21m7 21m1 22m1 22m4 22m7 22m1 23m1 23m4 23m7 23m1 24m1 24m4 24m7 24m1 25m1 25m4 25m7 25m1 26m1 26m4 26m7 26m1 27m1 27m4 27m7 27m1 28m1 28m4 28m7 28m1 29m1 29m4 29m7 29m1 21m1 21m4 21m7 21m1 Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, U.S. Commerce Department and authors calculations using a balanced sample of 63 economies reporting data. Imports are in current US dollars. 11

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