Consumer Price Index November 2017

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1 Consumer Price Index November 2017 (BASE PERIOD DECEMBER 2009 = 100) Report Date: December 2017 Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

2 Content Brief Methodology... 1 All Items Index... 5 Food Index... 7 All Items Less Farm Produce... 9 State Pro files...10 Infographics Statistical News Acknowledgements/Contacts... 29

3 Brief Methodology The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for dayto-day living. The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy. The weighting occurs to capture the importance of the selected commodities in the entire index. The production of the CPI requires skills of economists, statisticians, computer scientists, data collectorsand others. Key in the construction of the price index is the selection of the market basket of goods and services. Every month, 10,534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the computation of the CPI.The market items currentlycomprise of 740 goods and services regularly priced. The first stage in the calculation of the CPI is the collection of prices on each item (740 goods and services) from outlets in each sector (rural or urban) for each state. Prices are then averaged for each item per sector across the state. The next step is to use the average price to calculate the basic index for each commodity: The current year price of each commodity is compared with a base year's price to obtain a relative price. Next we use the Laspeyres formula to compute an aggregated index for each class (which has a multitude of commodities which have similar consumption purposes): Here the sum of the product of weights (obtained from the expenditure survey) and relative prices for each item is divided by the sum of the weight of the items in that class, and the result multiplied by 100 gives the required index number. This index number is still classified according to the urban or rural classification sector for each of the 36 states and the FCT. This yields 85 classes then 48 groups which are then reclassified into 12 Divisions to derive: 1. The country composite index 2. The Urban National index 3. The Rural National index 4. The Combined Urban and Rural State Composite index The survey methodology generates 3774 all items indices for all states and the FCT. This edition of the Statistical News contains the revised (CPI) based on Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2003/2004. The consumption expenditure data were re-valued to November 2009, which is the base period for the revised CPI. The May 2003 and September 1985 based indices are being continued using factors derived from the new CPI. These indices will yield the same price change for any commodity group contained in all the series.

4 A new sub index - Imported Food Index- is available in the revised CPI. Note: The urban and rural indices were weighted with the ratio of their populations to the national i.e and respectively to compute the composite indices at the 12 Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) functions and all items levels. This may cause variance between a recalculated all items index using the weights published on table 2 and the published all items index because the published weights were computed only from consumption expenditure survey result.the following breakdown highlights a non-exhaustive listofthe components of thecurrent CPI: The following breakdown highlights a non-exhaustive list of the components of the current CPI: A,» 0 * 6 1 FOODAND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats & - * jv ÏÎ Fruit Vegetables Potatoes, Yam & other tubers Food products n.e.c Coffee, tea and cocoa Soft drinks ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO I t b AND KOLA Spirits Wine Tobacco Narcotics - 0 CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR Clothing materials, other articles of clothing t Garments Cleaning, repair Shoes and Repair and hire and hire of clothing other footwear of footwear 2

5 I f f ft A, i * ^ t HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS Actual and imputed Water supply Miscellaneous Electricity rentals for housing services relating to the dwelling 6 ftui «Gas Liquid fuel Solid fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT f Furniture and furnishings 0 Q 0 1 1J Major household appliances whether electric or not -m rm n 3im m i- Carpets a nd other floor coverings b ^ b i»j Repair of household appliances Repair of Furniture i t Glassware, tableware and household utensils Non-durable household goods V Household textiles / Domestic services and household services HEALTH <& T IT isl Pharmaceutical products Medical services Dental services Paramedical services Hospital services < M ) Motor cars Motor cycles Bicycles Vehicle spare parts TRANSPORT 1?» 1 - Fuels and lubricants for personal transportation Maintenance and repair of personal transport Passenger transport by road Passenger Passenger transport by air transport by sea and inland waterways 3

6 COMMUNICATION Postal services Telephone and telefax Telephone and telefax equipment services r RECREATION AND CULTURE & X Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment Photographic development Musical instrument Recreational and sporting services Games of chance RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS Catering services Accommodation services MISCELLANEOUS SERVICES GOODS AND is ttf 0 Hairdressing salons and personal Appliances, Jewellery, clocks Insurance grooming articles and products establishments for personal care and watches Other services 4

7 All Items Index The (CPI) which measures inflation increased by percent (year-on-year) in November2017. This was 0.01 percent points lower than the rate recorded in October (15.91) percent making it the tenth consecutivedisinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January Increases were recorded in all C O IC O P divisions that yield the Headline Index. On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.78 percent in November 2017, 0.02percent points higher from the rate of 0.76percent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in month on month inflation following five consecutive months on month contraction in headline inflation since May The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending in November 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period was percent, showing 0.21 percent point lower from percent recorded in October The Urban inflation rate rose by percent (year-on-year) in November from percent recorded in October, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by percent in November from percent in October. On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.85 percent in November, up by 0.03 from 0.82 percent recorded in October, while the rural index rose by percent in November, up by when compared with percent in October. The corresponding twelve month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is percent in November. This is less than percent reported in October 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in November is percent compared to percent recorded in October

8 6

9 Food Index High year on year food prices and food price pressure continued into November thoughconsistently at a slower pace month on month. The Food Index increased by percent (year-on-year) in November, down marginally by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in October (20.31 percent). On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.88 percent in November, upby 0.03percent from 0.85 percentrecorded in October. This represents the first rise in months on month rise following five consecutive disinflation in month on month inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57% in May The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in November 2017 over the previous twelve month average was percent, 0.25 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in October (19.14) percent. The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereal, milk, cheese, eggs, coffee, tea, cocoa, fish and Oil and fats. 7

10 8

11 All Items Less Farm Produce/Core Inflation The "All Items less Farm Produce" or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural,stood duringthe month of Novemberat percent points, up from percent recorded in Octoberas all key divisions which contributes to the index increased. On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.77 percent in November, higher from 0.76 percent recorded in October. The average 12 month annual rate of change of the index was percent for the twelve-month period ending in November 2017; this is 0.48 percent points lower than percent recorded in October. The highest increases were recorded in prices of motorcycles, bicycles, glassware and tableware, hospital and medical services, spirits, household textiles, insurance, accommodation services, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Other services in respect of personal transport equipment, and Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment. 9

12 State Profiles In analyzing price m ovements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading All Items Inflation In November 2017, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (23.63%), Nasarawa (19.90%) and Kebbi (19.22%), while Kogi (11.27%), Edo (13.11%) and Delta States (13.75) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation. On a month on month basis however, November 2017 all items inflation was highest in Bauchi (1.6%), Katsina (1.44%) and Oyo (1.43%), while Plateau (0%), Edo (0.07%)Benue (0.21%)recorded the lowest month on month all item inflation in November 2017 Food Inflation In November 2017, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (28.11%), Ebonyi (25.03%) and Nasarawa (24.95%)while Kogi (13.25%), Benue (15.19%) and Bauchi(15.42%)and recorded the slowest rise in food inflation. On a month on month basis however, November 2017 food inflation was highest in Oyo and Ebonyi (1.96%), and FCT/Abuja (1.93%),while Akwa Ibom (-0.69%), Plateau (-0.13%), and Benue (-0.06%) which recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in November recorded the lowest food inflation in November

13 Note: Indices may not be used for inter-state price comparison because market baskets differ f r o m s t a t e t o s t a t e Table 5 Combined Urban And Rural State Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 MOM YOY MOM YOY State Food All Food All Food All Food All Items Items Items Items A b i a A b u j a A d a m a w a A k w a I b o m A n a m b r a B a u c h i B a y e l s a B e n u e B o r n o C r o s s R i v e r D e l t a E b o n y i E d o E k i t i E n u g u G o m b e Im o J i g a w a K a d u n a K a n o K a ts in a K e b b i K o g i K w a r a L a g o s N a s s a r a w a N i g e r O g u n O n d o O s u n O y o P l a t e a u R i v e r s S o k o t o T a r a b a Y o b e Z a m f a r a Note: Indices may not be used for inter-state price comparison because market baskets differ f r o m s t a t e t o s t a t e 11

14 HEADLINE CPI IN NOVEMBER 2017 ROSE BY 15.90% 0.78% YEAR-ON-YEAR (FROM 15.91% IN OCTOBER 2017) MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 0.76% IN OCTOBER 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN Oil & Fats Milk, Cheese and Egg Bread and Cereals Coffee, Tea & Cocoa Fish The CPI () measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate 12

15 I NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS FOOD SUB-INDEX IN NOVEMBER 2017 ROSE BY 20.30% 0.88% YEAR-ON-YEAR (FROM 20.31% IN OCTOBER 2017) MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 0.85% IN OCTOBER 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN OILS AND FATS MILK, CHEESE AND EGGS COFFEE, TEA &COCOA The CPI () measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation. 13

16 I NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS CORE SUB-INDEX IN NOVEMBER 2017 ROSE BY 12.20% 0.77% YEAR-ON-YEAR (FROM 12.14% IN OCTOBER 2017) MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 0.76% IN OCTOBER 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN ( \ GLASSWARE AND TABLEW ARE HOSPITAL AND MEDICAL SERVICES. 11- HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES INSURANCE The CPI () measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate. 14

17 NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS URBAN INDEX IN NOVEMBER 2017 ROSE BY 16.27% 0.85% YEAR-ON-YEAR MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 16.19% IN OCTOBER 2017) (FROM 0.82% IN OCTOBER 2017) RURAL INDEX IN NOVEMBER 2017 ROSE BY 15.59% 0.724% YEAR-ON-YEAR (FROM 15.67% IN OCTOBER 2017) MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 0.715% IN OCTOBER 2017) The CPI () measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate. 15 j

18 NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS STATE PROFILES ALL ITEMS INFLATION All Times Inflation on a YoY Basis Was Highest In BAUCHI 23.63% Slowest Rise in Headline Inflation KOGI 11.27% NASARAWA 19.90% DELTA 13.75% KEBBI 19.22% EDO 3.11% MONTH ON MONTH All Times Inflation on a MoM Basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Headline Inflation BAUCHI PLATEAU KATSINA EDO BENUE BENUE 16

19 NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS STATE PRO FILES FOOD INFLATION Food Inflation on a YoY basis Was Highest In KWARA 28.11% Slowest Rise in Food Inflation KOGI 13.25% EBONYI 25.03% BAUCHI 15.42% NASARAWA 24.95% BENUE 15.19% MONTH ON MONTH Food Inflation on a MoM Basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Food Inflation OYO 1.96% EBONYI 1.96% ABUJA FCT 1.93% 17

20 Table 1 Composite (Base November 2009 = 100) All Items Index Monthly Monthon change (%) Year-on change(%) 12-Month average change(%) All Items less Farm Produce Monthly Monthon change (%) Year-on change (%) 12-Month average change(%) Food Monthly Weights Month Average 2009 Jan Jan Monthon change (%) Year-on change (%) 12- Month average change (%) Feb Feb M ar Mar Apr Apr M ay May June June July Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2010 Jan Jan Feb Feb M ar Mar Apr Apr M ay May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2011 Jan Jan Feb Feb M ar Mar Apr Apr M ay May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2012 Jan Jan Feb Feb M ar Mar Apr Apr M ay May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2013 Jan Jan Feb Feb M ar Mar Apr Apr M ay May

21 Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov

22 1. Inflation: Composite Year-on Change (%) 2. Inflation: Com posite 12-Month Average Change (%) c b c b T ^ - d i r t - i - i A u b i '!.

23 Table 2 Composite (Base November 2009 = 100) \ \ "& \ \ \ \ TJ \ \ \ % \ rn \ \ \ \ \ \ % \ \ \ \ \ \ 1 \ \ i \ i \ \ l \ * \ * y \ \ \ \ \ % \ \ \ \ * \ \ " \ ^ \ * " \ \ \ \ ' \ \ 1 \ \ \ W eights Jan Jan-09 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June July July Aug Aug Sep Sept Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan-10 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun June Jul July Aug Aug Sep Sept Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan-11 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan-12 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2013 Jan Jan-13 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2014 Jan Jan-14 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec

24 2015 Jan Jan-15 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2016 Jan Jan-16 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2017 Jan Jan-17 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov 3. Inflation -Composite All Items (%) Year-on Rate 12-Month Average o 5 S >> -5 a > io >> ^ a. >

25 Table 3 Urban (Base November 2009 = 100) \ \ \ ^ \ \ \ \ ^ \ \ : \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ 3 \ \ \ \ s \ \ S \ S \ \ \ \ \ \ \ -z \ \ \ \ \ % \ M M % \ s \ M 1 \ 1 \ % \ l \ * \ t \! \ 1 \ 1 \ 1 \ \ \ % \ i \ % \ \ 1 I l U H l h i * \ 4 \ ^ \ \ \ l \ % \» \ l \ l \ i l! \ \ 2 \ I \ \ \ M?, \ 1 \ * \ 3 \ \ \ l \ l \ \ 1 \ M ^ \ \ S \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ t \ \ % \ 1 \ \ \ \ \ \ \ * \ \ \ \ \ \ 1, \ 1, \ -ri \ 0 Weights Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Ju n e June J u ly July A u g Aug S ep Sept O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec 2010 Ja n Jan Feb Feb M a r Mar A p r Apr M a y May Ju n June Ju l July A u g Aug S ep Sept O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec 2011 Ja n Jan Feb Feb M a r Mar A p r Apr M a y May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul A u g Aug S ep Sep O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec 2012 Ja n Jan Feb Feb M a r Mar A p r Apr M a y May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul A u g Aug S ep Sep O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec 2013 Ja n Jan Feb Feb M a r Mar A p r Apr M a y May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul A u g Aug S ep Sep O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec 2014 Ja n Jan Feb Feb M a r Mar A p r Apr M a y May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul A u g Aug S ep Sep O c t Oct N o v Nov D e c Dec

26 2015 Jan Ja n Feb F e b Mar M a r Apr A p r May M a y Jun Ju n Jul Ju l Aug A u g Sep S e p Oct O c t Nov N o v Dec D e c 2016 Jan Ja n Feb F e b Mar M a r Apr A p r May M a y Jun Ju n Jul Ju l Aug A u g Sep S e p Oct O c t Nov N o v Dec D e c 2017 Jan Ja n Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov 4. Inflation -Urban All Items (%)

27 Table 4 Rural (Base November 2009 = 100) W eights D ec Dec 2009 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar A p r Apr May May Ju n e June Ju ly July Aug Aug Sep Sept O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar A p r Apr May May Ju n June Ju l July Aug Aug Sep Sept O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec 2011 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar A p r Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec 2012 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar A p r Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar A p r Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec

28 2014 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec 2015 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec 2016 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Ju n Jun Ju l Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct Oct Nov Nov D ec Dec 2017 Ja n Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Ju n Ju n Ju l Ju l Aug Aug Sep Sep O ct O ct Nov Nov

29 N ote: In dices m a y n o t be u sed for in ter-sta te p rice com parison b eca u se m a rket b a skets differ from state to state Table 5 Combined Urban And Rural State (Base Period: November 2009 = 100) Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 MOM YOY MOM YOY State Food All Food All Food All Food All Items Items Items Items Abia Abuja Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nassarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara N ote: In dices m a y n o t be u sed for in ter-sta te p rice com parison b eca u se m a rket b a skets differ from sta te to sta te

30 Acknowledgements/Contacts Acknowledgements We acknowledge our technical partners, Proshare in the design, concept and production of this publication. proshare Contact Head Office Address Plot 762,IndependenceAvenue,Central Business District,FCT, Abuja Nigeria. J feedback@nigerianstat.gov.ng 28

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