Consumption: lower growth in credit card loans, offset by double-digit rises in personal and payroll loans

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1 1 These figures include credit to non-banking financial intermediaries. Excluding this segment, growth was 8.4% 2 The contribution made by this sector is higher than the growth rate of the business portfolio because the contribution of other sectors, such as construction, was negative. Economic Analysis 4 August 214 Mexico Banking Flash Credit to the private sector: moderate growth of 8.6% in June In June 214 credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector posted a nominal annual growth of 8.6% 1. This growth was lower than in May 214 (9.3%) and June 213 (1.3%). On average, over the first half of the year, credit granted to the private sector increased 8.8%, less than the average for the first half of 213 (11.4%). Consumption: lower growth in credit card loans, offset by double-digit rises in personal and payroll loans At the end of June 214, nominal annual growth of consumer credit was 8.2%, less than the 8.9% recorded the previous month and less than in June 213, when it grew 15.2%. Average growth in the first half of the year was 9.1%, lower than the 16.7% seen last year. The Other Consumer Credits (OCC) segment, which includes personal and payroll loans, showed the greatest expansion, growing by a nominal annual growth rate of 12.7%. Due to its performance and weight within the consumer portfolio (46.6%), the OCC contributed the most to overall consumer credit growth, with 5.7pp of the total 8.2%. Credit Card loans (CC) recorded a nominal annual growth of %, the lowest so far this year, and one of the lowest since May 211. For this reason, CC came second in terms of its contribution to growth, at 2.3 pp. On average, CC loans posted a growth rate during 1H14 of 7.%, lower than the 15.6% seen in 1H13. Loans for durable consumer goods had a nominal annual growth of 2.%, slightly lower than the month before (2.3%) and below the figure for 213 (3.3%). Lower growth in credit, and particular in CC, may be linked to the weak performance of internal consumption (in May total ANTAD sales grew at a real annual rate of 3.4% after seasonal adjustments (sa), although in June they rose.5%). This weakness was in spite of seeing an improvement in formal employment (+3.2% and +3.5% annual growth in the total number of workers enrolled at the IMSS in May and June, respectively). Thus, in order for the rate of consumer credit growth to accelerate over the rest of the year, it will be important to see a strong improvement in employment and a reactivation of the internal market. Companies: slight deceleration, in line with the slow growth of economic activity In June 214 credit to companies grew at a nominal annual rate of 8.1%, below the rate registered the month before (9.%), but higher than over the same period in 213 (7.1%). Average growth during 1H14 was 7.9%, lower than the 8.6% achieved over the same period last year. By activity sector of registered companies, services (53% of the business portfolio) grew at a nominal annual rate of 16.4%, lower than the month before (18.8%) but higher than the same period of the previous year (7.1%). This sector contributed the most to growth: 8.2pp of the 8.1% by which the segment grew as a whole 2. The manufacturing sector (23% of the portfolio) registered a nominal annual growth of 2.7%, higher than the 2.4% we saw in May but lower than the 9.6% reached in June 213. Credit to construction (2% of the portfolio) remained in negative territory, although it is steadily rising: -2.7% in June vs. -4.3% in May. The performance of the corporate credit portfolio is related to the recent performance seen in the overall economy and its different sectors. For example, in May 214 the IGAE grew at a slower pace (1.9% annually sa, vs 2.9% annually sa in April) and in particular in its services component (1.9% sa in May vs. 3.1% sa in April). For this reason, as long as there is greater expansion of economic activity, credit to corporates will enjoy higher rates of growth. Housing: 9.3% growth in June, the highest so far this year To the end of June 214, banking credit for housing grew in nominal annual terms by 9.3%, more than in May 214 (8.7%) and June 213 (9.%). This result puts average growth for the portfolio in the first half of the year at 8.8%.

2 Credit: figures and statistics In June 214 the nominal annual growth rate of total performing loans (PL) granted by commercial banks to the private sector was 8.6%. Growth in the main categories was: consumption, 8.2%; housing, 9.3%; and corporates, 8.1%. The nominal annual growth rate of total credit made available by commercial banks to the private sector in June 214 was less than the previous month (9.3%), and also less than in the same month in 213 (1.3%). Figure Consumo/Consumption Empresas/Firms Vivienda/Housing Figure 2 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Consumo/Consumption Vivienda/Housing Empresas/Firms Figure Consumo/Consumption Empresas/Firms Vivienda/Housing IFNB/Non-banking Figure BCD/Durable goods TDC/CC Figure J 1 J 11 J 12 J 13 J 14 TDC/CC BCD/Durable goods Figure TDC/CC BCD/Durable goods

3 IV 95 IV 1 IV 2 IV 3 IV 4 IV 5 IV 6 IV 7 IV 8 IV-9 IV-1 IV 94 IV 95 IV 1 IV 2 IV 3 IV 4 IV 5 IV 6 IV 7 IV 8 IV-9 IV-1 IV 94 IV 95 IV 1 IV 2 IV 3 IV 4 IV 5 IV 6 IV 7 IV 8 IV-9 IV-1 Figure Figure Figure Figure Manufactura/Manufacturing Construcción/Construction Servicios/services Figure 11 1,4 1,2 1, Agropecuario/Agriculture Construcción/Construction Manufactura/Manufacturing Servicios/Services Figure 12 % GDP Agropecuario/Agriculture Manufactura/Manufacturing Construcción/Construction Servicios/Services Figure Figure 14 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 15 % GDP Source: BBVA Research with data from Bank of Mexico Source: BBVA Research con with data from Bank of Mexico Source: BBVA Research with data from Bank of Mexico and INEGI 2

4 BANCA COMERCIAL: CRÉDITO VIGENTE AL SECTOR PRIVADO NO BANCARIO (FIN DE PERIODO) / COMMERCIAL BANKS: PERFORMING LOANS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR (END OF PERIOD) Banca Comercial: Crédito Vigente al Sector Privado no Bancario Commercial Banks: Performing Loans to Non-Banking Private Sector Banca Comercial: Crédito Vigente al Sector Privado no Bancario Commercial Banks: Performing Loans to Non-Banking Private Sector Saldos mmp de junio de 214 / Balance in June 214 billion pesos Var % anual real / Annual real growth rate Saldos mmp corrientes / Balance in current billion pesos Var % anual nominal / Nominal annual rate of growth, % Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking Consumption Housing Firms Non Banking Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking IV 94 3, , N.D. N.D. N.D. N.D. N.D. IV N.D. N.D. N.D. N.D. N.D. IV 95 1, , IV , IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 5 1, IV IV 6 1, IV 6 1, IV 7 1, IV 7 1, IV 8 1, , IV 8 1, IV 9 1, , IV 9 1, IV 1 1, , IV 1 1, , , IV-11 2, , , , IV-12 2, , IV-13 2, , IV-13 2, , I-14 2, , I-14 2, , II-14 2, , II-14 2, , Saldos mmp de junio de 214 / Balance in June 214 billion pesos Var % anual real / Annual real growth rate Saldos mmp corrientes / Balance in current billion pesos Var % anual nominal / Nominal annual rate of growth, % M 2, , M 2, , J 2, , J 2, , J 2, , J 2, , A 2, , A 2, , S 2, , S 2, , O 2, , O 2, , N 2, , N 2, , D 2, , D 2, , , , , , F 2, , F 2, , M 2, , M 2, , A 2, , A 2, , M 2, , M 2, , J 2, , J 2, , J 2, , J 2, , A 2, , A 2, , S 2, , S 2, , O 2, , O 2, , N 2, , N 2, , D 2, , D 2, , , , , , F 2, , F 2, , M 2, , M 2, , A 2, , A 2, , M 2, , M 2, , J 2, , J 2, , Crédito al Sector Privado / Loans to the Private Sector Crédito Sector Privado / Loans to the Private Sector Proporción del PIB / Ratio of GDP, % Estructura del saldo / Percentage structure, % Aportación al crecimiento / Contribution to growth Saldo promedio anual real 12 meses / Average annual balance 12 months IV IV IV 8 1, IV IV 9 1, , IV 1 1, , , , , , , , IV I-14 2, , IV IV II-14 2, , IV IV Tasas de crecimiento reales promedio anual (12 meses) / IV IV Annual average real rates of growth (12 months) IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I I II II II * IFNB = Intermediarios financieros no bancarios / Financial non banking institutions Fuente / Source: Banco de México e INEGI / Bank of Mexico and INEGI 3

5 Saldos mmp de junio 214 / Balance in June 214 billion pesos Saldos en mmp corrientes / Outstanding balance in current billion pesos Consumo / Consumption Vivienda / Housing Empresas / Firms Consumo / Consumption Vivienda / Housing Empresas / Firms Bancario** No Bancario ** BancarioNo Bancario Bancario No Bancario BancarioNo Bancario BancarioNo Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario IV 94 5,722 3,494 2, ,618 2,626 1,992 IV IV 95 4,958 2,88 2, ,922 2,85 1,837 IV 95 1, , ,283 2,487 1, ,259 1,743 1,517 1, , ,996 2,259 1, , 1,554 1,447 1, , ,926 1,892 2, ,942 1,268 1,674 1, , ,488 1,591 1, ,531 1,46 1,485 1, , ,73 1,346 2, , ,863 2, , , ,59 IV 1 3,456 1,171 2, , ,698 IV 1 2, , , ,8 IV 2 3,63 1,132 2, , ,774 IV 2 2, , , ,113 IV 3 3,747 1,9 2, , ,882 IV 3 2, , , ,227 IV 4 4,3 1,13 2, , ,997 IV 4 2, , , ,37 IV 5 4,234 1,282 2, , , ,48 IV 5 3,2 99 2, , ,452 IV 6 4,346 1,68 2, , , ,811 IV 6 3,27 1,186 2, , ,336 IV 7 5,113 1,972 3, , , ,62 IV 7 3,914 1,51 2, , , ,579 IV 8 5,764 2,112 3, , ,689 1,112 2,577 IV 8 4,71 1,723 2, , ,9 97 2,12 IV-9 5,47 2,21 3, , ,464 1,115 2,349 IV-9 4,621 1,77 2, , , ,984 IV-1 5,599 2,112 3, , ,528 1,18 2,347 IV-1 4,938 1,863 3, , ,111 1,41 2,7 6,521 2,384 4, , ,55 4,287 1,34 2,947 5,971 2,183 3, , ,925 1,227 2,698 6,71 2,579 4, , ,11 4,317 1,42 2,896 6,362 2,446 3, , ,44 4,93 1,347 2,746 IV-13 7,352 2,764 4, , ,115 4,864 1,543 3,321 IV-13 7,248 2,725 4, , ,99 4,796 1,521 3,274 I-14 7,214 2,731 4, , ,155 4,693 1,511 3,182 I-14 7,214 2,731 4, , ,155 4,693 1,511 3,182 Tasa de crecimiento real anual / Annual real rate of growth, % Tasa de Crecimiento Nominal Anual / Nominal annual growth rate, % IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I Estructura Porcentual del Saldo / Percentage structure of balance, % Proporción del PIB / As ratio of GDP, % IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I * Bancario: incluye banca de desarrollo y banca comercial tanto cartera vigente como vencida y reestructurada; No Bancario incluye financiamiento proveniente del exterior, el otorgado por intermediarios financieros no bancarios (IFNB) del país, proveedores, emisión de deuda interna, el concedido por empresas no financieras que tienen su propia tarjeta y el Infonavit y Fovissste. * Banking: includes total loan protfolio (performing + non performing) of commercial and development banks; Non Banking includes all non bankig domestic intermediaries, domestic issuing of debt by firms, foreing finance granted to Mexican companies, trade credit financing, financing granted by department stores for consumer loans and housing loans granted by official housing agencies. ** Bancario = Banking ; No Bancario = Non BankingFuente / Source: Banco de México e INEGI / Bank of Mexico and INEGI Sirenia Vázquez Báez. Sirenia.vazquez@bbva.com CREDITO BANCARIO Y NO BANCARIO AL SECTOR PRIVADO (FIN DE PERIODO)/ BANK AND NON BANK FINANCE TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR (END OF PERIOD) Versión Amplia de Financiamiento no Bancario (Consumo y Empresas) / Broad version of non banking finance Saidé A. Salazar saidearanzazu.salazar@bbva.com Av. Universidad 12, Col. Xoco, México 3339 D.F. researchmexico@bbva.bancomer.com Aviso Legal Este documento ha sido preparado por BBVA Research del Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) y por BBVA Bancomer. S. A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer, por su propia cuenta y se suministra sólo con fines informativos. Las opiniones, estimaciones, predicciones y recomendaciones que se expresan en este documento se refieren a la fecha que aparece en el mismo, por lo que pueden sufrir cambios como consecuencia de la fluctuación de los mercados. Las opiniones, estimaciones, predicciones y recomendaciones contenidas en este documento se basan en información que ha sido obtenida de fuentes estimadas como fidedignas pero ninguna garantía, expresa o implícita, se concede por BBVA sobre su exactitud, integridad o corrección. El presente documento no constituye una oferta ni una invitación o incitación para la suscripción o compra de valores. 4

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