World Shipyard Monitor

Transcription

1 World Shipyard Monitor Volume 11, No.5 May-2004 ISSN: Highlights Orderbook The orderbook at end April reached 187.0m dwt, up 14.3m dwt since end 2003.p.2/3. New Orders During April, 143 contracts of around 8.2m dwt were reported placed... 4/5. Deliveries Only nine tankers and products carriers were delivered in April..... p.6/7. Newbuilding Prices The fall in the drybulk freight market may cause localised weakness in bulker pricing...p.8. Investment 2004 investment activity is still ahead of record p.9. Contracting by Region Japanese yards attracted 6.9m dwt of new contracts in the first quarter.....p.12. Deliveries by Region 235 ships of 16m dwt are scheduled for delivery from Japanese yards in the remainder of p.14/15. Shipyard Capacity The orderbook of I.H.I (Kure) reached 50 vessels of 1.9m cgt in April p.16. Demolition Demolition in April was driven in part by expectations about the Bangladesh budget..... p.20. Shipbuilding Focus We investigate the relationship between freight market cycles and lead times in the newbuilding market p Damen, Hoogezand, Neth. 2.AESA, Puertoreal, Spain 3.Fincantieri, Monfalcone, Italy 4.AESA, Sestao, Spain 5.HDW, Kiel, Germany 6.Odense, Lindo, Denmark 4 JAPAN 1.Mitsubishi, Nagasaki 2.Hitachi, Ariake 3.Imabari,Marugame 4.Namura, Imari 5.Mitsui, Chiba 6.Kawasaki, Sakaide 7.Sumitomo, Oppama 8.Oshima, Oshima 9.I.H.I., Kure 10.Nippon Kokan, Tsu 4 8 S.KOREA Major European Shipyards MAIN SHIPYARDS 7.Harland & Wolff, Belfast, UK 8.Ch. de L'Atl., St.Nazaire, France 9.Stocznia Szczecin, Poland 10.Brod. 3 Maj, Rijeka, Croatia 11.Kvaerner Masa, Turku, Finland 12.Meeres Technik, Wismar, Ger Major Far Eastern Shipyards MAIN SHIPYARDS 11.Shin Kurushima, Onishi 12.Koyo, Mihara 13.Tsuneishi, Numakuma SOUTH KOREA 1.Hyundai, Ulsan 2.Daewoo, Okpo 3.Samsung, Koje 4.Samho, Samho 5.Hanjin, Busan 6.STX, Chinhae CHINA 1.Dalian New Yard, Dalian 2.Jiangnan, Shanghai 3.Hudong, Shanghai 4.Shanghai, Shanghai 5.Guangzhou, Guangzhou 6.Xingang, Tianjin 10 1 TAIWAN 1.China Sb., Kaohsiung 2.China Sb., Keelung 13.Brod. Split, Split, Croatia 14.MeyerWerft, Papenburg, Ger. 15.Stocznia Gdynia, Poland 16.Varna Shipyard, Bulgaria 17.Fincantieri, Marghera, Italy 18.Galatz Shipyard, Romania JAPAN 5 Shipping Intelligence Network... "represents a giant leap forward in the information technology development in shipping." Join the SIN Club "With shipping's first 'need to know' information portal, Clarkson has made shipping intelligence better than ever before."

2 Specialised Chemical Products Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize Combos FCC<3Kteu FCC>3Kteu Orderbook As % Of Fleet (DWT) 1.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.8% Bulk Vessel Orderbook No. end Orderbook by Vessel Type m.cgt, end: Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Orderbook Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Other Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels 1,319 1, Total Orderbook 19.8% 21.0% 27.3% 27.7% 30.4% 28.5% 20.6% 17.8% 18.0% 19.2% 16.8% 18.7% 24.2% 22.6% 16.9% 13.8% 33.9% 32.0% No. end 55.6% 56.6% End Apr 04 End % 58.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: Clarkson Research Studies m.cgt, end: Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* All Vessels Types 3,006 3, Clarkson Research Studies Page 2 m. DWT, end: m. DWT, end: No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Summary April 2004 The orderbook at the end of April 2004 reached 187.0m dwt, an increase of around 4.0m dwt since the end of March and 14.3m dwt since the end of Thus, the trend of an increasing orderbook continues, due to still-strong contracting activity (8.2m dwt in April) and relatively moderate levels of deliveries (around 4.3m dwt in April). The containership orderbook expanded by another 1.7m dwt to 39.4m dwt. The dry bulk carrier orderbook increased by around 0.6m dwt in April to 52m dwt. The Capesize orderbook again saw the largest increase to 164 vessels of 24.4m dwt, representing 24.2% of the current fleet in dwt terms, compared to 157 vessels of 23.2m dwt at the end of March. The Panamax orderbook decreased slightly, to 172 vessels of 13.0m dwt. The total tanker orderbook (10,000 dwt+) was also on the increase, from 910 vessels of 81.1m dwt at the end of March to 927 vessels of 82.7m dwt in April. Another three VLCCs were added to the orderbook, which now stands at 86 vessels of 26.1m dwt. N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu,,000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

3 Orderbook by Vessel Type Monthly Forward Orderbook by Shiptype (m. cgt) 8.00 m. cgt Tankers Combos Container Bulkers Gas Source: Clarkson Research Studies Bulk Vessel Orderbook Orderbook, Delivery in: Apr* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Orderbook Million GT Orderbook, Delivery in: Apr* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Total Orderbook Million GT Million GT Orderbook, Delivery in: Apr* All Vessels Types N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu,,000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable. Clarkson Research Studies Page 3

4 m. cgt Quarterly Contracting by m. cgt Tankers Bulkers Gas Container Other 3Q96 1Q97 3Q97 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 Bulk Vessel Contracting New Orders by Vessel Type 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* This Year v. Last VLCC > 200, UP BY. 18% Suezmax , STEADY AT. 3% Aframax , DOWN BY.. -24% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -19% Products 10-60, STEADY AT. -4% Chemical 10-60, DOWN BY.. -63% Specialised 10-60, DOWN BY % Tankers > 10, STEADY AT. -5% Tankers < 10, DOWN BY.. -6% Capesize > 80, DOWN BY.. -6% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -82% Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY.. -76% Handysize 10-40, DOWN BY.. -37% Bulkers > 10, DOWN BY.. -43% Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels 1, DOWN BY.. -20% Special Vessel Contracting 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* This Year v. Last LNG Carriers UP BY. 218% LPG Carriers UP BY. 192% Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu STEADY AT. -1% Containers < 3,000 teu UP BY. 12% Other Dry > 5,000 dwt UP BY. 17% Offshore & Others UP BY. 174% Cruise Vessels UP BY. 10% Ro-Ro Ferries DOWN BY.. -98% Total Special Vessels UP BY. 18% Total Contracting Source: Clarkson Research Studies No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: No. end m.cgt, end: No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* This Year v. Last All Vessels Types 1, DOWN BY.. -10% Clarkson Research Studies Page 4 Summary April 2004 During April, a total of 143 contracts of around 8.2m dwt were placed. This is up from 125 contracts in March. The contracting of containerships is still going strong, with 48 orders reported placed in April. A total of 13 contracts for crude tankers were reported in April. AP Moeller is reported to have ordered four 310,000 dwt VLCCs from Dalian New Yard for delivery in 2007/08. Primorsk Shipping Corp is reported to have ordered two 166,000 dwt Suezmax tankers at Hyundai Heavy Industries. K-Line and MOL ordered one 300,000 dwt ore carrier each from Universal Shipbuilding of Japan for delivery towards the end of The ships were contracted against long-term timecharters, as such ships nearly always are due to their relative inflexibility with regards to trading routes. A total of 15 contracts for standard bulk carriers were reported in April, bringing the year-to-date figure to 67 contracts of 6.1m dwt. This is down by an annualised 43% compared to the record-setting pace in m. DWT, end: Ordering Trends Ordering Trends Ordering Trends N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu, '000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

5 Bulk Vessel Contracting New Orders by Vessel Type Apr* This Year v. Last VLCC > 200, UP BY. 16% Suezmax , STEADY AT. 2% Aframax , DOWN BY.. -25% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -21% Products 10-60, DOWN BY.. -5% Chemical 10-60, DOWN BY.. -63% Specialised 10-60, DOWN BY % Tankers > 10, DOWN BY.. -6% Tankers < 10, DOWN BY.. -11% Capesize > 80, DOWN BY.. -6% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -82% Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY.. -75% Handysize 10-40, DOWN BY.. -38% Bulkers > 10, DOWN BY.. -44% Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels DOWN BY.. -21% Special Vessel Contracting Apr* This Year v. Last LNG Carriers UP BY. 216% LPG Carriers UP BY. 205% Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu STEADY AT. -2% Containers < 3,000 teu UP BY. 8% Other Dry > 5,000 dwt UP BY. 29% Offshore & Others UP BY. 105% Cruise Vessels UP BY. 72% Ro-Ro Ferries UP BY. 16% Total Special Vessels UP BY. 21% Total Contracting Recently Confirmed Shipbuilding Contracts Date Type Dwt Unit Delivery Builder Hull No. $m. Owner Apr-04 Aframax 115, Samsung S.B Premuda S.P.A.N. Apr-04 Aframax 115, Samsung S.B. ChevronTexaco Shpg. Apr-04 Aframax 115, Samsung S.B Premuda S.P.A.N. Apr-04 Aframax 115, Samsung S.B. ChevronTexaco Shpg. Apr-04 Handy Prod 51, Shina S.B. Fullship S.r.l. Apr-04 Handy Prod 40, Shina S.B. Intrigue Shpg. Apr-04 Handy Prod 40, Shina S.B. Intrigue Shpg. Apr-04 Small/Spec 3, Third Internat Svithoid Tankers Apr-04 Small/Spec 3, Third Internat Svithoid Tankers Apr-04 Small/Spec 3, Third Internat Svithoid Tankers Apr-04 Small/Spec 3, Third Internat Svithoid Tankers Apr-04 Handymax 53, New Century S/Y Unknown Owner Apr-04 Handymax 53, New Century S/Y Unknown Owner Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 5,100 TEU Hanjin H.I Schoeller Holdings Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 5,100 TEU Hanjin H.I Schoeller Holdings Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 5,100 TEU Hanjin H.I Schoeller Holdings Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 5,100 TEU Hanjin H.I Schoeller Holdings Apr-04 Panamax 66,800 5,042 TEU Hyundai H.I. Reederei C.-P. Offen Apr-04 Panamax 66,800 5,042 TEU Hyundai H.I. Reederei C.-P. Offen Apr-04 Panamax 59,000 4,300 TEU Hyundai H.I. E.R. Schiffahrt Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 3,380 TEU Hanjin H.I Niki Group Apr-04 Panamax 67,500 3,380 TEU Hanjin H.I Niki Group Apr-04 Sub-Panamx 30,000 2,890 TEU Kvaerner Phil. 004 Builders Account Apr* This Year v. Last All Vessels Types STEADY AT. -4% Clarkson Research Studies Page 5 Million GT Ordering Trends Million GT Ordering Trends Million GT Ordering Trends N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu, '000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

6 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Quarterly Deliveries (DWT) Tankers Bulkers Gas Container Other Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Deliveries by Vessel Type Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Source: Clarkson Research Studies Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Summary April 2004 Tankers Tanker deliveries in April were down on the previous month, with a total of six crude oil tankers and three product carriers reported delivered. Deliveries were evenly distributed across sizes, with two VLCCs, two Suezmaxes and two Aframaxes coming into the fleet. In the Product carrier sector, Klauss Oldendorff took delivery of the 75,000 dwt Panamax tanker NORDMARS from Hyundai Heavy Industries, Ulsan. Dry Bulk Carriers Deliveries of bulk carriers in April were down significantly on March, with only nine vessels of 0.5m dwt reported delivered compared to 13 in March. No Capesize vessels were reported to have hit the water in April, while the Panamax, Handymax and Handysize sectors saw three new vessels each. 4.7m dwt of Capesizes are scheduled for delivery in the remainder of the year, compared to 2.3m dwt delivered in the first four months of the year. The situation is similar for the Panamax sector, where 1.6m dwt out of an estimated 5.4m dwt has been delivered. Bulk Vessel Deliveries No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Deliveries 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Deliveries No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Total No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Delivery Trends 2003 Apr* 2003 Apr* Apr* All Vessels Types N.B. Specialised ships deliveries in terms of other units of measurement (e.g. cbm, teu) are in the blue centre pages. * denotes data for year to date. Deliveries are those reported Clarkson Research Studies Page 6

7 Bulk Vessel Deliveries Deliveries by Vessel Type Type Vessel Name Flag Dwt Unit Delivery Builder Owner VLCC Elizabeth I. Angelicoussi GR. 306,000 Apr 2004 Daewoo S.B. Kristen Navigation VLCC Nichioh PA. 302,900 Apr 2004 Universal S.B. Nissho Shpg. Co. Ltd Aframax Minerva Nike GR. 105,000 Apr 2004 Hyundai Samho Minerva Marine Inc. Handy Prod Garonne M.I. 37,000 Apr 2004 Hyundai Mipo OMI Marine Services Handy Prod Mount Rainier CY. 39,500 Mar 2004 Saiki Hvy. Ind. Intership Nav. Co. Handy Chem Eken SW. 13,700 Apr 2004 Jiangnan S/Yard Ektank AB Small/Spec Mencey SP. 6,750 Mar 2004 RMK Marine Petrogas Maritima Small/Spec Ecem Kalkavan TU. 7,100 Mar 2004 Sedef Gemi End. Kasif Kalkavan Group LNG Golar Frost LI. 70, ,000 cbm Apr 2004 Hyundai H.I. Golar LNG ltd. Capesize Corona Kingdom PA. 88,000 Apr 2004 Imabari S.B. Kawasaki Kisen Handymax Cemara H.K. 45,000 Mar 2004 P.T. PAL Indon. Fairmont Shpg. H.K. Handysize Sun Ruby H.K. 32,600 Apr 2004 Kanda S.B. Co. Pacific Basin Agen. Post Panamax Busan Express PA. 79,500 6,750 TEU Apr 2004 Daewoo S.B. NVA Norddeutsche Panamax MSC Ornella GE. 55,000 4,900 TEU Apr 2004 Hanjin H.I. Mediterranean Shpg. Panamax Zim Barcelona MA. 54,760 4,800 TEU Apr 2004 Hyundai H.I. Ofer Bros. (Mngmt.) MPP > 5K DWT PAC Alnath SG. 25,000 Apr 2004 Kouan S.B. Pacific Carriers MPP > 5K DWT Hikmet K TU. 5, Gisan Shipyard Irem Denizcilik Ro-Ro > 5K DWT Tor Primula DIS 10,070 Apr 2004 Flensburger S.B DFDS Tor line Other Dry > 5K DWJumbo Javelin NE. 10,975 Apr 2004 Damen Galati Kahn Scheepvaart Offshore Pacific Steel SG. 2,200 2,061 GT Mar 2004 Pan United Pacific Richfield Offshore Mary Frances Candies AM. 1,925 1,125 GT Feb 2004 Houma Fabricat. Otto Candies Cruise Caribbean Princess BS. 9, ,000 GT Mar 2004 Fincantieri Princess Cruises Inc Cruise Westerdam PA. 7,200 84,000 GT Apr 2004 Fincantieri Holland America Line Apr* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Dry Bulk > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Deliveries Apr* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Total Deliveries Recent Shipbuilding Deliveries Million GT Million GT Million GT Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Apr* All Vessels Types N.B. Specialised ships deliveries in terms of other units of measurement (e.g. cbm, teu) are in the blue centre pages. * denotes data for year to date. Deliveries are those reported Clarkson Research Studies Page 7

8 $m Bulk Vessel Prices Tanker Newbuilding Prices VLCC Aframax Handy Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Shipbuilding Price Trends Price $ million, end Price Developments Summary April 2004 Newbuilding prices continued up strongly in April. While we quoted $85.5m for a VLCC contract in March, buyers in April would have had to part with around $86.5m. The situation was similar for bulk carriers, with Capesize contracting prices up from around $52.5m in March to around $56m in April. However, with drybulk freight markets turning down sharply compared to previous highs, there was a rather different tone to the bulk carrier newbuilding market in early May. Before assuming that this signals a generally weaker tone, it is worth keeping in mind that contracting prices in other sectors remain strong and show no sign of weakening. The key fact is that the yards still have significant forward orderbook cover, making them resistant to price pressure in the short to medium term. Still, there are signs of nerves at the yards, since the opportunity to lock dry bulk ships in at peak prices seems to be slipping away, at least for now. Although this may cause localised weakness in pricing, most of the deals being negotiated today are for 'additional' berths, which the yards do not necessarily need to sell as they are otherwise full. Price Trend Against a Apr* Year Ago Is VLCC 300,000 dwt STRONGER % Suezmax 150,000 dwt STRONGER % Aframax 110,000 dwt STRONGER % Panamax 70,000 dwt STRONG % Handy 47,000 dwt STRONGER % Capesize 170,000 dwt STRONGER % Panamax 75,000 dwt STRONGER % Handymax 51,000 dwt STRONGER % Handysize 30,000 dwt STRONGER % Price Index STRONG % % change -2% -15% -4% 7% -5% -3% 12% 12% Other Vessel Prices Suezmax Panamax Source: Clarkson Research Studies Price $ million, end Price Trend Against a Apr* Year Ago Is LNG 138,000 m STRONG % LPG 78,000 m STRONG % Container 725 teu STRONGER % Container 1,000 teu STRONGER % Container 1,700 teu STRONGER % Container 2,000 teu STRONG % Container 2,750 teu STRONGER % Container 3,500 teu STRONGER % Container 4,600 teu STRONGER % Container 6,200 teu STRONGER % Ro-Ro 1,2-1,300 Lm STRONGER % Ro-Ro 2,3-2,700 Lm STRONG % Sources: Clarksons. Ro-Ro prices for 1997 are averages not end year. All historial data refers to standard vessel sizes published at the time. The dwt sizes quoted refer to the latest spec. in that vessel sector, and new vessel sizes are introduced from time to time. Tanker and Capesize prices are for double-hull vessels; VLCCs from 1992, Suezmax & Aframax from Panamax and Handy Tankers are coated. Price data assumes a "European spec", with 10/10/10/70% payments, basis "first class competitive yards". Price data latest available at time of press. NB Price Index is value at the end of the previous month. Clarkson Research Studies Page 8

9 Shipbuilding Investment & Key Ratios Investment in Bulk Vessels ($bn.) Total Container Total Gas Total Bulk Carriers Total Tankers Source: Clarkson Research Studies 8.3 Investment Scene This Month Newbuilding Investment Summary April 2004 Total investment in newbuildings reached an estimated $20.8 billion in the first four months of 2004, up more than 8% on an annual basis. This puts shipping investment in 2004 on course to another record year, at an annualised $61.2 billion. We see little change in the sector-wise breakdown in investment, with bulk carriers down an annualised 35.4% by value, tankers steady (-2% on an annualised basis) and specialised shipping up sharply (+33% annualised). Investment in the latter is still driven primarily by midsize containerships and gas carriers. Indeed, investment in the LNG sector year to date, at $2.6 billion, has already overtaken the invested amount in all of As a result of the all-time high seen in the drybulk freight market in the first quarter of 2004, April saw the five-year-old second-hand price exceed the contracting price in all four sub-sectors. The Capesize market saw the most heated second-hand prices at 108% of the contracting price. However, with the recent slide in freight rates this ratio may also have seen its peak for now. Investment Trends Apr VLCC > 200, UP BY. 27.5% Suezmax , UP BY. 6.9% Aframax , DOWN BY % Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY % Handy 10-60, STEADY. -4.5% Total Tankers STEADY. -2.0% Capesize > 80, UP BY. 17.1% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY % Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY % Handysize 10-40, DOWN BY % Total Bulk Carriers DOWN BY % LNG UP BY % LPG > 60,000m³ UP BY. 307% Container > 3,000 teu UP BY. 5.2% Container 1-3,000 teu UP BY. 31.2% Container < 1,000 teu DOWN BY % Total Specialised UP BY. 33.0% Total UP BY. 8.3% % Change 2% -31% 15% 84% -27% -9% 157% Price Ratios for Investors Value $ billion Price Ratios (Secondhand/Newbuilding) Apr v. End last Year VLCC 5 Yr. Old 71% 78% 69% 77% 93% 83% 85% 91% 91% STEADY. 0.5% Suezmax 5 Yr. Old 83% 85% 83% 82% 93% 84% 87% 91% 87% STEADY. -4.5% Aframax 5 Yr. Old 85% 88% 68% 79% 96% 83% 83% 87% 89% STEADY. 2.1% Panamax 5 Yr. Old n/a 88% 81% 79% 85% 73% 64% 75% 80% UP BY. 7.8% Handy 5 Yr. Old 78% 86% 81% 77% 83% 78% 72% 74% 64% DOWN BY % Tanker Average 79% 85% 76% 79% 90% 80% 78% 84% 82% STEADY. -1.5% Capesize 5 Yr. Old 72% 85% 78% 83% 75% 75% 80% 92% 108% UP BY. 17.9% Panamax 5 Yr. Old 74% 81% 70% 76% 71% 68% 79% 104% 101% STEADY. -2.2% Handymax 5 Yr. Old 82% 80% 69% 80% 74% 72% 75% 83% 102% UP BY. 22.1% Handysize 5 Yr. Old 68% 76% 65% 74% 80% 76% 75% 81% 107% UP BY. 33.2% Bulk Carrier Average 74% 81% 71% 78% 75% 73% 77% 90% 105% UP BY. 16.5% NB: The SH/NB ratios have been altered as above. The end 2001 figures have been adjusted in the same manner and the percentage change represents the gain/loss over the end 2001 value. Clarkson Research Studies Page 9 Investment Trends This Year Price Ratio Trends

10 Orderbook by Country/Region Global Orderbook 2004 by cgt Asian Orderbook 2004 by cgt P.R. China 13.1% Other Asia 2.8% Europe 15.9% South Korea 48.0% P.R. China 15.8% Others 1.3% Japan 32.8% Other Asia 3.3% South Korea 39.8% Source (all graphs): Clarkson Research Studies Japan 27.2% Spain 4% European Orderbook 2004 by cgt Poland 16% Italy 12% Germany 20% Croatia 12% Other Europe 36% Major Shipbuilders Million DWT For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 10

11 Major Shipbuilders Orderbook by Country/Region Million CGT For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL Major Shipbuilders Numbers of Vessels For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 11

12 Contracting by Country/Region Tanker 29% Japanese Contracts in 2004 (GT) Other Dry 12% Container 37% Gas 6% Container 17% Korean Contracts in 2004 (GT) Bulk 1% L.N.G. 16% Chemical 0% Others 5% Bulk 36% Other 0% Tanker 41% Summary April 2004 Japan Thus far in 2004, Japanese yards have attracted 6.9m dwt of new contracts, a decrease of 50.0% on an annualised basis compared to Contracting in 2004 is heavily weighted toward bulk shipping, with bulk carriers accounting for 36% and tankers accounting for 29% of total new orders measured by GT. Aside from a general global decrease in contracting levels (in dwt terms rather than value), the fall in contracting in Japan can be attributed mainly to the Haneda Megafloat airport project, which suggests that no large rebound in order intake should be expected for the remainder of the year. Korea With Japanese yards less active for domestic reasons, Korean yards have grabbed the opportunity to dominate the global newbuilding scene thus far in Year-to-date contracting in South Korea stood at 16m dwt at the end of April, up by an annualised 12.1%. Hence, this year s order intake at Korean yards represents nearly half (48%) of the global additions to the orderbook. New contracts (by GT) are heavily skewed toward tankers (41%), container ships (37%), and LNG (16%). Hence, South Korean yards have continued to shy away from bulk carriers despite their recent strong increase in newbuilding prices, and this vessel type only constitutes about 1% of 2004 orders. However, this may ultimately turn out to be a blessing for the drybulk market, as the bulk carrier orderbook might otherwise have been a lot larger. Major Shipbuilders Million DWT Trends This Year vs. Last Year * Japan DOWN BY -50.0% South Korea UP BY. 12.1% Taiwan DOWN BY -76.4% P.R. China UP BY. 6.1% Other Asia UP BY. 75.4% TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -14.9% Germany UP BY. 16.2% Denmark UP BY % France DOWN BY % Italy UP BY. 33.2% Netherlands UP BY % Spain UP BY. 43.9% Finland DOWN BY % Norway UP BY. 48.4% Turkey DOWN BY -21.8% Poland DOWN BY -44.1% Ukraine UP BY % Croatia UP BY % Other Europe UP BY. 54.5% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 79.2% Brazil DOWN BY % USA UP BY % Others DOWN BY -92.2% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -29.2% GLOBAL TOTAL DOWN BY -9.7% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 12

13 Major Shipbuilders Contracting by Country/Region Million CGT Trends This Year % * Japan DOWN BY -45.6% South Korea UP BY. 22.0% Taiwan DOWN BY -62.0% P.R. China DOWN BY -18.7% Other Asia UP BY. 37.7% TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -9.8% Germany STEADY. -3.5% Denmark UP BY % France UP BY % Italy UP BY. 17.3% Netherlands UP BY % Spain UP BY % Finland DOWN BY % Norway UP BY. 31.2% Turkey DOWN BY -13.4% Poland UP BY. 11.0% Ukraine UP BY % Croatia UP BY % Other Europe UP BY. 51.8% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 67.0% Brazil DOWN BY % USA UP BY. 95.0% Others UP BY % TOTAL OTHERS UP BY % GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 0.0% Major Shipbuilders Number of Vessels * Trends This Year % Japan DOWN BY -57.2% South Korea UP BY. 19.9% Taiwan DOWN BY -25.0% P.R. China DOWN BY -26.1% Other Asia UP BY. 35.3% TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -19.7% Germany DOWN BY -10.0% Denmark UP BY % France UP BY % Italy DOWN BY -33.3% Netherlands UP BY % Spain UP BY % Finland DOWN BY % Norway UP BY. 33.3% Turkey DOWN BY -9.1% Poland % Ukraine UP BY % Croatia UP BY % Other Europe UP BY. 5.9% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 36.4% Brazil DOWN BY % USA UP BY % Others UP BY. 63.6% TOTAL OTHERS UP BY. 34.5% GLOBAL TOTAL DOWN BY -9.3% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 13

14 Deliveries by Country/Region m.cgt Scheduled Output by Region Other Europe China S Korea Japan Summary April ships of around 16m dwt are scheduled for delivery from Japanese shipyards in the remainder of Measured in deadweight terms, bulk carriers comprise the largest category with 104 ships of around 7.9m dwt, followed by crude tankers (20 ships of around 4.5m dwt), product carriers (27 ships of 1.1m dwt), and chemical carriers (30 ships of 0.56m dwt). Looking closer at the bulk carrier sector, we currently have 19 Capesize vessels of 3.1m dwt due for delivery from Japanese yards in the remainder of There are also 36 Panamax bulk carriers of 2.7m dwt scheduled for delivery. Japanese yards are also active builders of crude tankers, with 11 VLCCs of 3.3m dwt due in the last eight months of the year, five Suezmax tankers of 0.78m dwt and four Aframax tankers of 0.42m dwt Source: Clarkson Research Studies m. CGT Japan Output Source: Clarkson Research Studies Major Shipbuilders Million DWT Trends This Year vs. Last Year * Japan STEADY. -2.8% South Korea UP BY. 16.9% Taiwan DOWN BY -17.5% P.R. China STEADY. 4.9% Other Asia STEADY. 3.8% TOTAL ASIA UP BY. 6.6% Germany DOWN BY -42.1% Denmark DOWN BY -25.4% France DOWN BY -74.1% Italy DOWN BY -13.7% Netherlands UP BY. 13.2% Spain DOWN BY -34.1% Finland UP BY % Norway DOWN BY -70.6% Turkey DOWN BY -13.3% Poland UP BY. 28.1% Ukraine Croatia UP BY % Other Europe UP BY. 27.4% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 5.1% Brazil UP BY. 50% USA DOWN BY -87.1% Others DOWN BY -98.9% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -77.6% GLOBAL TOTAL UP BY. 5.9% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 14

15 Major Shipbuilders Deliveries by Country/Region Million CGT Trends This Year % * Japan UP BY. 9.2% South Korea UP BY. 22.0% Taiwan UP BY. 5.4% P.R. China DOWN BY -16.2% Other Asia DOWN BY -17.4% TOTAL ASIA UP BY. 10.3% Germany DOWN BY -27.2% Denmark DOWN BY -23.5% France DOWN BY -95.2% Italy UP BY. 17.5% Netherlands DOWN BY -30.1% Spain DOWN BY -24.5% Finland UP BY. 75.7% Norway DOWN BY -59.1% Turkey STEADY. -0.3% Poland UP BY. 55.4% Ukraine Croatia UP BY. 37.3% Other Europe UP BY. 8.6% TOTAL EUROPE DOWN BY -9.9% Brazil UP BY. 55.4% USA DOWN BY -69.3% Others DOWN BY -75.8% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -54.1% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 4.8% Major Shipbuilders Number of Vessels Trends This Year % * Japan STEADY. 4.0% South Korea UP BY. 20.0% Taiwan UP BY. 15.4% P.R. China DOWN BY -21.4% Other Asia DOWN BY -36.4% TOTAL ASIA STEADY. 2.4% Germany DOWN BY -29.4% Denmark DOWN BY -40.0% France DOWN BY -25.0% Italy UP BY. 5.0% Netherlands UP BY. 7.7% Spain DOWN BY -52.6% Finland UP BY % Norway DOWN BY -46.7% Turkey STEADY. -4.0% Poland UP BY. 25.0% Ukraine Croatia UP BY. 50.0% Other Europe UP BY. 16.1% TOTAL EUROPE DOWN BY -9.4% Brazil UP BY. 28.6% USA DOWN BY -21.7% Others DOWN BY -50.0% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -16.7% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. -1.2% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 15