ARCHIVED REPORT. Piaggio P180 Avanti II - Archived 9/2007

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1 Military Aircraft Forecast ARCHIVED REPORT For data and forecasts on current programs please visit or call Archived 9/2007 Outlook 10 Year Unit Production Forecast Avanti II deliveries began in late 2005 The Avanti II has replaced the original Avanti in the Piaggio product line Units Civil Military Years Description. Pressurized, five- to nine-passenger, twin-turboprop-powered, business/executive transport aircraft. Sponsor. The P180 is privately sponsored by Piaggio. Status. Production of the P180 Avanti II. Total Produced. Two flight test prototypes, two static test articles, and approximately 100 production Orientation Avantis were produced through One Avanti II had been produced. Application. Short/medium-range business/executive passenger transportation. Additional applications include maritime patrol, search-and-rescue, and military transport. Price Range. P180 Avanti II, $6.195 million in 2006 U.S. dollars. P180 AVANTI Source: Piaggio Aero Industries 2006 August 2006

2 Page 2 Military Aircraft Forecast Contractors Prime Piaggio Aero Industries SpA via Cibrario 4, Genoa, Italy, Tel: , Prime Subcontractor Hartzell Propeller Inc One Propeller Place, Piqua, OH United States, Tel: + 1 (937) , Fax: + 1 (937) (Five-Blade Propeller) Messier-Dowty Ltd Pratt & Whitney Canada Rockwell Collins Inc Cheltenham Rd, Gloucester, GL2 9QH United Kingdom, Tel: , Fax: (Landing Gear) Marie-Victorin Blvd, Longueuil, J4G 1A1 Quebec, Canada, Tel: + 1 (450) , Fax: + 1 (450) , marketing@pwc.ca (PT6A-66 Turboprop Engine) Collins Rd NE, Cedar Rapids, IA United States, Tel: + 1 (319) , Fax: + 1 (319) , collins@rockwellcollins.com (Avionics) Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International s International Contractors series. For a detailed description, go to (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown, CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@forecast1.com Technical Data (P180 Avanti II) Design Features. Cantilever aft-mid-wing monoplane with no wing sweep; constructed 95 percent of Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 avionics are standard. gear is used, with carbon brakes on each main wheel. aluminum. Hydraulically actuated tricycle-type landing Metric U.S. Dimensions (External) Length overall m ft Height 3.98 m ft Wingspan m ft Dimensions (Internal) Cabin height 1.75 m 5.74 ft Cabin width 1.85 m 6.07 ft Cabin length 4.55 m ft Weight Standard equipped, empty 3,538 kg 7,800 lb Max takeoff weight 5,466 kg 12,050 lb Useful load 1,950 kg 4,300 lb Max payload 907 kg 2,000 lb August 2006

3 Military Aircraft Forecast Page 3 Metric U.S. Performance Max cruise speed at 28,000 ft 737 kmph 398 kt Ceiling 12,500 m 41,000 ft Max IFR range 2,791 km 1,507 nm Propulsion P180 Avanti (2) UTC Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-66 turboprop engines flat-rated to 634 kw (850 shp), each driving a Hartzell five-blade propeller. P180 Avanti II (2) UTC Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-66B turboprop engines flat-rated to 634 kw (850 shp), each driving a Hartzell five-blade propeller. Initial Avanti IIs are powered by the original PT6A-66 engine. Seating Standard cabin seating for six passengers on five fully adjustable cabin chairs and one single-place divan. Highdensity seating for nine passengers. Crew of one or two. Variants/Upgrades P-181. Possible 14-seat commuter variant that was studied by Piaggio in The P-181 would include a twometer fuselage stretch forward of the main wing, strengthened landing gear, extra fuel tankage, and more powerful Pratt & Whitney Canada turboprop engines. No definite plans exist to produce this derivative. Background. Following four years of preliminary design work, Piaggio entered into an agreement with Learjet in October 1983 for the joint development of the GP-180, a pusher turboprop subsequently named the Avanti. Learjet, however, withdrew from the program in January Avanti Design. The Avanti s aerodynamic configuration employs three lifting surfaces to reduce drag and fuel consumption. The aircraft s primary lifting surface is the main airfoil, mounted midway on the fuselage to avoid drag-inducing bulges in the circularsection fuselage. This is complemented by the horizontal T-tail and elevator, and by the foreplane. The foreplane serves as a forward wing rather than as a canard surface. It produces a positive component of lift to assist the main wing in supporting the aircraft, and permits the aircraft to be reduced in size. At one time, Piaggio produced Avanti fuselage sections in Wichita, Kansas, that were then shipped to Genoa, Italy, for final assembly. However, in an attempt to reduce costs, Piaggio has since moved fuselage production to the Genoa facility. In October 2000, Piaggio established Piaggio America, a new subsidiary based in Greenville, South Carolina, to sell the Avanti in North America. Piaggio America relocated to West Palm Beach, Florida, in January Program Review Certification. The first Avanti prototype flew in September 1986, followed by a second aircraft in May These featured a four-piece windshield, but production aircraft were fitted with a redesigned, twopiece unit affording improved visibility. Initial Italian certification was achieved in March U.S. FAA basic approval was awarded in May Full FAA and Italian certification was received in October Financial Issues. In 1993, Piaggio ownership was restructured, with the Piaggio family s majority 59 percent share dropping to 19 percent. The Italian aerospace company Alenia took a 31 percent share in the firm, while the IMI bank took 10 percent and other banks took 40 percent. This recomposition allowed a refinancing of Piaggio. Nevertheless, the company s finances remained troubled. In mid-1994, a plan proposed by Alenia s parent company, Finmeccanica, sparked fierce union opposition. Finmeccanica proposed that Piaggio s aircraft business be transferred under lease to Aermacchi, while the engine division would be supported by Alfa Romeo Avio. The proposal was eventually rejected by the shareholders and the unions. In late 1994, an Italian court placed Piaggio under bankruptcy protection under Italy s Prodi Law. This law provides preferential financial treatment for major 2006 August 2006

4 Page 4 Military Aircraft Forecast high-tech companies. Piaggio s $200 million debt was frozen for up to two years, and the Italian government was to guarantee any additional credits. Three government officials acted as administrators in an attempt to restore the company to profitability. In late 1996, the Italian government extended Piaggio s bankruptcy protection until November The Italian Ministry of Industry had authorized the Piaggio administrators to open direct negotiations to sell the company. A number of bids to purchase Piaggio were submitted in By the middle of the year, these had narrowed to two competing finalists: a group called ALA, established by Piaggio management, and a team led by the Turkish state holding company, Tushav. The Turkish-led consortium was selected as the winner, and took over the company in late It changed the name of the company from Industrie Aeronautiche e Meccaniche Rinaldo Piaggio SpA to Piaggio Aero Industries. Tushav initially owned 51 percent of Piaggio but, by July 1999, had reduced its share to 17.5 percent. In late 2000, it sold its remaining stake in Piaggio to an unnamed group of Italian investors. Currently, the primary shareholders in Piaggio are the Ferrari and di Mase families. They hold 55 percent of the share capital of the company. Mubadala Development, an investment firm owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, owns 35 percent. The remaining 10 percent is held by a mix of banks and other shareholders. P180 Program Relaunched The P180 program was relaunched by Piaggio in October In February 2000, the company Significant News delivered a P180 to a U.S. businessman. This aircraft was the first P180 actually produced since 1994, as the few Avantis that had been delivered in the intervening years were completed aircraft that Piaggio had in stock. Avanti II Introduced In October 2004, Piaggio introduced a new, improved version of the Avanti dubbed the Avanti II. The new model features improved avionics, better performance (including greater payload/range capability), and enhanced cabin comfort. The Avanti II is equipped with the Rockwell Collins Pro Line 21 avionics suite, which includes three eight-inch by 10-inch liquid crystal adaptive flight displays, the FMS 3000 flight management system, and the AHS 3000 attitude heading reference system. The Avanti II also features upgraded cabin amenities. These include a remodeled lavatory vanity and an optional in-flight entertainment system; both are from Stevens Aviation. Beginning in early 2007, the Avanti II will be powered by the Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-66B engine, an upgraded version of the PT6A-66 found on the original Avanti. Maximum cruise speed of the Avanti II is 398 knots at 8,538 meters (28,000 feet). Compared to the current Avanti, the Avanti II has increased maximum takeoff weight (12,050 pounds), maximum landing weight (11,453 pounds), and useful load (4,300 pounds). Owner of First Production Avanti Orders Avanti II In May 2006, Piaggio announced that Robert J. Pond, the owner of the first production P180 Avanti, had ordered a new Avanti II to replace his original model. Pond said that the older Avanti will be added to his public collection of more than 25 aircraft. (Piaggio, 5/06) Mubadala Development Takes Stake in Piaggio In April 2006, Mubadala Development, an investment company wholly owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, acquired 35 percent of the equity of Piaggio. Mubadala s investment involves the purchase of existing shares and new shares. As part of the transaction, Mubadala will receive three board seats of Piaggio (out of a total of seven), including the post of vice-chairman. Mubadala will also receive one of the three seats on the company s Executive Management Committee. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed. (Piaggio, 4/06) First Avanti II Delivered In December 2005, Piaggio delivered its first Avanti II to a private Swiss customer. The aircraft (serial number 105) is configured for seven passengers and will provide corporate and private flights from Lugano Agno Airport, located in southeast Switzerland. The Avanti II s operating characteristics enable the August 2006

5 Military Aircraft Forecast Page 5 customer to provide flexible services from the airport, which has a 3,800-foot-long runway at an elevation of 915 feet that requires a steep approach procedure. (Piaggio, 1/06) Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the online E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at and click on the links to the products you subscribe to. Timetable Month Year Major Development 1979 Preliminary design initiated Oct 1983 Gates Learjet/Piaggio team formed May 1985 GP-180 renamed Avanti Early 1986 First prototype assembled in Italy Sep 1986 Prototype first flight May 1987 Second prototype flown Mar 1990 Initial Italian certification granted May 1990 U.S. FAA basic type certification awarded Sep 1990 Initial delivery Oct 1990 Full FAA and Italian certification awarded Oct 1991 German and Spanish certification granted Mar 1993 French certification awarded Oct 2005 EASA certification of Avanti II Dec 2005 Initial Avanti II delivery Mar 2006 FAA certification of Avanti II The Avanti II received type certification from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in October Deliveries of the new model began in December Initial delivery of an Avanti II was to an unidentified customer in Switzerland. FAA certification of the Avanti II was obtained in March 2006, later than Piaggio had hoped. The company had expected the U.S. agency to approve the Avanti II just a couple of weeks after EASA certification had been awarded. According to Piaggio director Alberto Galassi, the FAA inexplicably delayed certifying the new aircraft, costing Piaggio five or six deliveries to U.S. customers that otherwise could have been made in January As of May 2006, Piaggio had a backlog of slightly more than 100 Avanti IIs; two had been delivered (one in December 2005, and one in early 2006.) Seventy percent of the Avanti IIs on order are for U.S. customers. In November 2005, fractional ownership provider Avantair placed an order for 36 Avanti IIs. The deal was valued at more than $230 million. The aircraft are to be delivered to Avantair in The order is the largest in the history of the Avanti program. Forecast Rationale Prior to the start of deliveries of these newly ordered aircraft, Avantair is to take delivery of a number of previously ordered Avanti IIs. The fractional provider currently has some 33 original Avantis in its fleet. The Avanti II has replaced the original Avanti model in the Piaggio product line. Production of the original Avanti version ended in the fall of Piaggio intends to build 24 Avanti IIs in 2006 and 30 in In an attempt to boost production capacity, the company plans to open a new subassembly and component manufacturing facility in 2008 in Villanova d Albenga, near Genoa. All Avanti IIs delivered in 2006 will be powered by the PT6A-66 engine that powered the original Avanti model. Starting sometime in early 2007, Avanti IIs are to be delivered with Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-66B engines. The -66B is an upgraded version of the PT6A-66. The new engine will be available as a retrofit item for all Avanti IIs delivered prior to its availability. A number of the enhancements in the Avanti II, including the PT6A-66B engine, will be available for retrofit to original Avantis August 2006

6 Page 6 Military Aircraft Forecast The Avanti II faces competition for sales from singleengine turboprops such as the EADS Socata TBM 700 and TBM 850 and the Pilatus PC-12, as well as light business jets like the Cessna CJ series and the Raytheon Premier IA. The Raytheon King Air twin turboprop also provides some competition. New Very Light Jets (VLJ) such as the Cessna Mustang, the Embraer Phenom 100, and the Eclipse 500 are also competitive threats. Fractionals Are Key to Avanti Market Fractional ownership programs have been an important market for the Avanti and the Avanti II. Besides Ten-Year Outlook Avantair, fractional provider Avia Aviation of Calgary, Alberta, also utilizes Avantis in its program. Meanwhile, Piaggio has been seeing increasing interest in the Avanti II from corporate flight departments. The aircraft tends to appeal to mid-size companies, such as large automobile dealerships or regional banks. Owner/ operators also constitute a market for the Avanti II. Civil ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR PRODUCTION High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative Level Level Total Aircraft (Engine) thru PIAGGIO AERO INDUSTRIES P180 AVANTI (CIVIL)(a) PT6A P180 AVANTI II (CIVIL) PT6A P180 AVANTI II (CIVIL) PT6A-66B Total Production (a)does not include static test airframes. Military ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR PRODUCTION High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative Level Level Total Aircraft (Engine) thru PIAGGIO AERO INDUSTRIES P180 AVANTI (MIL.) PT6A P180 AVANTI II (MIL.) PT6A-66B Total Production August 2006