GDL AND OTHER SOLUTIONS TO THE YOUNG DRIVER PROBLEM IN SCOTLAND

Transcription

1 Brake 9th Road Safety orum International Congress Youth, Gender and Road Risk London, 30 June 2011 GDL AND OTHER SOLUTIONS TO THE YOUNG DRIVER PROBLE IN SCOTLAND Stephen Stradling Transport Research Institute, Edinburgh Napier University

2 Depending how fast you go, the more of a thrill you get. ( 21-25) I take my dad out for spins in my car, he s into cars so he doesn t really mind, he trusts me driving fast. I drive sensibly at the same time. AST AND SENSIBLY? Well fast sometimes and then sensibly other times. ( 21-25) The existing system is not working effectively because: Newly qualified drivers can be overconfident and overestimate their own ability The driving test focuses too narrowly on vehicle control Learning is carried out inefficiently, because learners do not have sufficient information to plan their training properly The practical test is currently perceived as the end point of the formal learning process, with very few newly-qualified drivers undertaking further learning. DfT (2008). Learning to Drive. A Consultation Paper. Department for Transport. London.

3 White (2005). Presentation to the IA oundation International orum. Budapest. OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 30 member countries:

4 Age or Experience? A study of British drivers licensed to drive at different ages (i.e., 17, 20, 25, 36 & 50 years respectively) who travelled about 12,000kms per year, found that crash risk during the first few years of solo driving decreased by about 31% due to age and about 59% due to experience. aycock, Lockwood & Lester (1991)

5 Age Effect Experience Effect

6 The particular skill deficits of YDs are well summarised by the US DoT HA (Lerner, 2001): Visual search young drivers tend to be more vehicle focused than looking ahead for hazards Automaticity young drivers have a lack of experience and therefore have not acquired fluid switching of driving tasks under stressful conditions Hazard detection young drivers detect hazards slower compared to older more experienced drivers. Young drivers with a lack of experience are likely to have deficiencies in their hazard perception compared to more experienced older drivers. Perception of risk risk tends to be underestimated by young drivers Attention allocation young drivers are easily distracted by passengers and in-car electronics Self assessment young drivers tend to overestimate their ability to drive Vehicle control young drivers have less experience at making emergency manoeuvres and are vulnerable to over compensating and losing control Anticipation young drivers are less likely to look ahead for developing situations and emerging hazards (quoted in Husband, 2010, p.14).

7 Theory: uller (2005, 2011), Kinnear (2009) YDs need re-calibrating The driving task is, from time to time, more demanding than they think it is, partly because they don t feel the fear (Kinnear, 2009; Kinnear & Stradling, 2010) They re not as competent as they think they are in concentrating, observing and anticipating (COAST). By underestimating task demand, and over estimating capability, they drive with reduced safety margins. Back away from the edge!

8 ocus Group Quotes uller, Bates, Gormley, Hannigan, Stradling, Broughton, Kinnear and O Dolan (2007) I think your body knows you re outside your comfort zone. It just registers something and you say back again instantly, to whatever speed you re comfortable. (P) I went about 120 (mph) then I started feeling that I wasn t in control, a sort of feeling anything could happen here that sort of scared me. (P) Well, I could control the safety margins with the speed, I feel quite happy doing 80-85, but if something, if the weath.., if conditions got worse, if the rain gets heavier, then I would slow down, I would kinda back off. (PTW [Biker]) And again it was on the motorway, nobody else about, did it [high speed] for a couple of minutes, stopped whenever there was anything looking like it was getting too close. Just a bit too much sensory input for me, and a little bit too quick, even though feels like an empty road, it doesn t feel comfy. (PTW)

9 Now Learner period; un-restricted duration Un-restricted full licence 1 in 5 newly qualified drivers crash within 6 months of obtaining their licence. ost newly qualified drivers are aged under people per day are killed or seriously injured in crashes involving young drivers in the UK inimum length learner period With Graduated Driver Licensing ixed term, restricted intermediate period no night time driving, no teen passengers, no alcohol Graduated driver licensing could save 236 lives a year in Great Britain, prevent 14,000 casualties and save the GB economy 889 per year Dr Sarah J Jones, jonessj3@cf.ac.uk

10 Briefing document: Graduated Driver Licensing Dr Sarah J Jones, Dr Dorothy Begg and Professor Stephen Palmer jonessj3@cardiff.ac.uk A Cochrane review of 13 GDL systems reported that there are many different schemes in place that can vary within countries. The schemes have been evaluated in different ways and using different denominators. The range of effects is difficult to summarise but ranged from a 76% decrease in crash fatalities being seen over 2 yrs in Ontario (Licensed driver denominator) to a 3% increase in injury crashes at 1 yr in California (Licensed driver denominator). The conclusion of the review was that GDL reduces crash rates for all crash types, but because of the variations between schemes, the overall magnitude of effect of the system is unclear. Hartling, L., Wiebe, N., Russell, K.., Petruk, J., Spinola, C. and Klassen, T.P. (2004). Graduated driver licensing for reducing motor vehicle crashes among young drivers. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Issue 2.

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12 AGE EXPERIENCE Graduated Driving Licence System RESTRICTIONS Time of day (no night) (without supervision) inimum start age inimum length learner period Theory test Number / age of passengers (without supervision) Type of road (without supervision) Alcohol (little or none) Penalty points (fewer for ban) Practical driving test Expiry of probation Learner phase Intermediate phase Cleared to go solo

13 1 Very supportive - 5 Very unsupportive >25 >25 AGAINST: 4 % unsupportive + 5 % very unsupportive RESTRICTIONS Time of day (no night) (without supervision) inimum start age inimum length learner period Theory test Number / age of passengers (without supervision) Type of road (without supervision) Alcohol (little or none) Penalty points (fewer for ban) Practical driving test Expiry of probation Learner phase Intermediate phase Cleared to go solo

14 1 Very supportive - 5 Very unsupportive >25 >25 AGAINST: 4 % unsupportive + 5 % very unsupportive RESTRICTIONS Time of day (no night) (without supervision) inimum start age inimum length learner period Theory test Number / age of passengers (without supervision) a minimum period of training/practice before learners can take a practical driving test Type of road (without supervision) Alcohol (little or none) Penalty points (fewer for ban) support for a harder driving test for all Practical driving test Expiry of probation Learner phase Intermediate phase Cleared to go solo Do you think there should be a probationary period? % NO

15 1 Very supportive - 5 Very unsupportive >25 >25 AGAINST: 4 % unsupportive + 5 % very unsupportive inimum start age inimum length learner period Theory test RESTRICTIONS Time of day (no night) (without supervision) Number / age of passengers (without supervision) Type of road (without supervision) A ban on driving at night A ban on driving at night unless accompanied by a passenger over 21 with 3 yrs licence Alcohol (little or none) A limit on the number of passengers in the vehicle aged at night Penalty points (fewer for ban) A limit on the number of passengers in the vehicle aged during the day Practical driving test Expiry of probation Learner phase Intermediate phase Cleared to go solo

16 What do they want? Everyone Cheaper insurance; help with costs of learning to drive Road safety awareness for pre, learner, younger drivers and driving offenders What most people want Road safety awareness for employers and parents Lower drink drive limit inimum period before a person takes the test Harder test Probationary period; P plates What everyone other than young drivers wants GDL: Constraints at night and with number of passengers

17 GDL attempts to extend the calibration period for YDs and to give graded exposure to higher task-demand situations (darkness, country roads, unfamiliar motorways) and reduce the risks of distraction (passengers). We have a theoretical justification for GDL, as well as successful international evaluations.