Annual fleet. ISBN: (Online)

Transcription

1 Annual fleet statistics 217 ISBN: (Online)

2 Table of contents 217 fleet report highlights... 2 Accessing the graphs and information in this report... 4 Describing the vehicle fleet Setting the scene the vehicle fleet in context... 6 How much is the fleet growing?... 6 What are the trends in travel?... 7 How does the age of the New Zealand fleet compare internationally?... 9 Light petrol fleet fuel economy... 1 Vehicle fleet CO2 emissions... 1 Population increase and the light fleet Composition of the fleet Vehicle travel and age Light fleet engine capacity trends Vehicles entering and exiting the fleet Vehicles entering the fleet Vehicles exiting the fleet The diesel fleet, diesel and petrol travel, CNG/LPG/electric vehicles How fuel-efficient is the light fleet? The engine size and age of the vehicles in use Road freight Appendix A: Comparability with other published data Appendix B: Vehicles in the fleet Disclaimer: All reasonable endeavours have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this report. However, the information is provided without warranties of any kind including accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Ministry of Transport excludes liability for any loss, damage or expense, direct or indirect, and however caused, whether through negligence or otherwise, resulting from any person or organisation s use of, or reliance on, the information provided in this report. Under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4. International (BY) licence, this document, and the information contained within it, can be copied, distributed, adapted and otherwise used provided that: the Ministry of Transport is attributed as the source of the material the material is not misrepresented or distorted through selective use of the material images contained in the material are not copied The terms of the Ministry s Copyright and disclaimer apply. Enquires relating to this data may be directed to the Ministry of Transport, PO Box 3175, Wellington, or by on info@transport.govt.nz For more information about vehicles and travel check out 1

3 Billion km 217 fleet report highlights Light vehicle registrations and travel Light vehicle registrations increased markedly in 213 and have continued to grow each year since then. New vehicle registrations have set record after record, and used registrations have reached the previously record levels of The key light fleet metrics (fleet size, vehicles per capita, travel, travel per capita) are all rising. Light fleet size The light fleet has grown significantly since registrations first picked up in ,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, Light vehicles per 1 people Vehicle ownership rates started increasing in 212 after dropping from 27 to 211, and have kept on increasing. They are now at their highest ever level ,5, Light fleet growth rate The rate of fleet growth in 217 was even higher than the very high growth in % 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Travel growth Light fleet growth has resulted in travel growth of 6% in Travel growth per person The kilometres travelled per person in light vehicles has increased every year since Travel per light vehicle Annual travel per light vehicle has generally declined, as light vehicle numbers have increased by a greater rate than travel

4 Light vehicle entries and exits The number of vehicles leaving the fleet in 217 was low, whereas entries were a record high Entry Exit Light fleet average age Vehicle registrations dropped after 25, and as a result the average age of the light vehicle fleet started to increase. The increase in age has been arrested by the high levels of registrations, but hasn t dropped due to the low levels of scrappage Light fleet age structure The large number of recent vehicle registrations have reduced the proportion of the fleet that is aged 15 years or older. However, the absolute number of these vehicles remains high and many are approaching the end of their life. 4% 3% 2% 1% % years 2+ years Petrol prices Real regular petrol prices were lower in than These prices (cents/litre) have been converted to a December 211 basis using the consumer price index CO2 emissions of light vehicles registered The CO 2 emissions (grams per km driven) of light vehicles entering the fleet dropped in 211 and 212 but have remained steady since then. Light petrol fleet fuel economy The fuel economy (litres per 1 km) of the light petrol fleet is improving. This is established by comparing travel and the petrol used, less estimated non-road use Net migration One of the causes of the high number of vehicle purchases in 217 was high net migration (shown below). Fewer New Zealanders are leaving and immigration has increased. -1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 3

5 Accessing the graphs and information in this report The graphs and information presented in this report, and the report itself, are available at A series of brief quarterly fleet reports is also available there. The Ministry has developed a set of transport Indicators, which include further information on the vehicle fleet, including some regional breakdowns. They are available on the Transport Dashboard ( Describing the vehicle fleet This report is based on data from the Motor Vehicle Register (MVR). The statistics presented in this publication have been categorised differently to the traditional motor vehicle statistics produced by the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) 1. The objective was to produce a categorisation better suited to the estimation of fuel use and levels of emissions. Points (1) and (2) below are the significant differences. 1) Vehicle categorisation The vehicle categories used in this report are: Light passenger (with a gross vehicle mass (GVM) up to 35kg) Light commercial (with a GVM up to 35kg) Truck Bus Motorcycle NZTA categorisation Passenger car/van Goods vans/trucks/utilities Buses Motor caravans Motorcycles Mopeds Categorisation used in this report Light passenger Light commercial if GVM up to 35kg Truck if GVM over 35kg Light commercial if GVM up to 35kg Bus if GVM over 35kg Light commercial if GVM up to 35kg Truck if GVM over 35kg Motorcycles Motorcycles 2) Vehicles leaving the fleet The second difference is in judging when a vehicle has left the fleet. Unless a vehicle owner actively de-registers it, or the vehicle has not been re-licensed for 12 months, then NZTA s practice has been to include those vehicles in fleet statistics. This over-estimates the size of the active fleet, as some vehicles will become inactive well within the 12 months. In this report vehicles are considered to have left the fleet when their licence expires and is not renewed within 12 months (using a probability approach) or they are cancelled, whichever comes first. This provides for better travel estimates More detailed description about these approaches can be found in Appendix A and B

6 3) Travel estimation The vehicle travel estimates in this report are derived from the odometer readings recorded when vehicles undergo inspection (warrant of fitness and certificate of fitness). These readings were first recorded in this way in 2 and the estimates derived from them become usable from 21 onwards. Although the current method of collecting data generally provides accurate data, a range of matters, discussed below, mean that all figures presented are estimates and may be revised in subsequent years in light of more complete data. The travel estimates for a year are calculated in July/August the following year, and make use of 6 months of inspections data after the end of that analysis period. This approach results in a high number of vehicles having an inspection after the end of the analysis period, but it is still a compromise. One reason that travel estimates vary from year to year is the new longer warrant of fitness (WoF) cycles. For instance, a new vehicle that entered the fleet in August 214 will not be inspected for three years. Therefore average travel distances for similar vehicles will be used for that vehicle until it is eventually inspected. Other vehicles that have had a series of inspections, may not have an inspection in the six months after the analysis period. That means that their travel has to be projected to the end of the analysis period. This is more common now that many vehicles are subject to annual WoF inspections. Eventually these vehicles are likely to undergo more inspections, and the estimated travel for the analysis period can firmed up. That is why there is a limited degree of change when estimates for previous years are republished. It also means that similar overall annual travel estimates (for instance 39.9 billion and 4.1 billion) are best regarded as the same, as that level of difference may disappear when extra inspections lead to better estimates. 5

7 Percentage change Vehicles 1. Setting the scene the vehicle fleet in context How much is the fleet growing? Figure 1.1 shows that the light fleet (light passenger and light commercial vehicles) makes up over 9 percent of the total vehicle fleet. The light fleet is made up of cars, vans, utes, four wheel drives, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), buses and motor caravans (camper vans) with a gross vehicle mass up to 3.5 tonnes. Figure 1.2 shows that the light fleet grew by 21 percent between December 2 and December 26 but only by 4.5 percent from December 26 to December 212. Growth was accelerated again from 213 and 4.5% in 217. The light fleet is not the fastest growing segment of the fleet. Figure 1.2 shows that bus and motorcycle/ mopeds have increased by over 1 percent since December 2. 4,5, Figure 1.1 : Fleet composition 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Light passenger Light commercial MCycle Trucks Bus 14% Figure 1.2 : Fleet increase since 2 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Light passenger Light commercial MCycle Trucks Bus What part of the fleet travels the most? Travel on New Zealand roads is dominated by the light fleet. Light passenger vehicles contributed 74 percent of road travel in 217 and light commercial vehicles a further 19 percent. Only seven percent of road travel was by other vehicles (motorcycles, heavy trucks and buses). Figure 1.3a : Travel in 217 Truck 6% Other 2% Light commercial travel 18% Light passenger travel 74% 6

8 Billion vehicle km Comparing Figures 1.2 and 1.3b shows that growth in travel and vehicle numbers has been similar in general, except for light passenger vehicles. Their numbers have increased relatively more than their travel has. 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Figure 1.3b: Travel growth % % Light passenger Light commercial Mcycle Trucks Buses Is the light fleet travel done by New Zealand-new or used imported vehicles? Breaking the information in 1.3a down further shows that travel by the light passenger and light commercial fleets is significantly different. Light passenger travel 2 is almost equally split between vehicles imported new into New Zealand, and vehicles imported second-hand. Light commercial travel is dominated by New Zealand-new vehicles. See also Section 8.2, for a diesel/petrol breakdown. Light commercial used import 3% Figure 1.3c : Travel in 217, new/used import Truck 6% Light commercial NZ new 16% Light passenger used import 36% Other 1% Light passenger NZ new 38% What are the trends in travel? Total annual travel in New Zealand was increasing until 27 (up 12.4 percent from 21 to 27), but between then and 212 three periods of high oil prices and the economic downturn saw a slight fall in travel (down 2.4 percent from 27 to 212). Travel grew again from 213 and the growth was 6.% in 217, the highest annual growth rate since 21. As discussed above, the fleet has also grown strongly in recent years. 5 Figure 1.4 : Travel Light travel Period Other travel 2 Travel has been estimated using the odometer readings from the vehicle inspection system (warrant of fitness and certificate of fitness). 7

9 Vehicles per 1 population Ownership per capita 3 of light vehicles increased significantly between 2 and 25. The increase reflected a number of factors, including the high value of the New Zealand dollar (which made vehicles cheaper), high employment and the positive economic outlook that typified that time. Light vehicle ownership per capita declined between 27 and 212, but has increased to record levels since then. It is now higher than the previous peak level of 27. Also see Figure 1.5b. These levels of ownership are among the highest in the world. 85 Figure 1.5a : Light fleet ownership per 1 population Regional light vehicle ownership Figures 1.5a shows the national trend in light vehicle ownership per capita. However, there is substantial regional variation (see Figures 1.5b and 1.5c). Three of the four regions with the highest ownership rates are in the South Island (Canterbury, Nelson- Marlborough and Southland). Wellington and Auckland have low ownership rates, due in part to the availability of public transport Figure 1.5b: North Island light vehicle ownership per 1 people Bay of Plenty Taranaki Hawke's Bay Waikato Manawatu- Wanganui Auckland Northland Wellington Gisborne NZ Figure 1.5c: South Island light vehicle ownership per 1 people Nelson - Marl Canterbury Southland West Coast Otago NZ The increased ownership rate was accompanied by increased travel per capita until 25. Light travel per capita (and fleet travel) dropped in response to the fuel price rises in 26, rose slightly in 27 and continued to drop until 212. Light travel per 3 Population data obtained from the Statistics New Zealand website 8

10 Annual km per vehicle Annual km capita has increased every year since 213. Figure 1.7 shows that travel per vehicle dropped until 214. Otherwise, the travel increase would have been far more due to the increase in light vehicles per capita. 1, Figure 1.6 : Light fleet travel per capita 9,5 9, 8,5 8, 7,5 7, Although New Zealand has high levels of vehicle ownership (see Figure 1.5a) this does not translate proportionately into increased travel. The amount of travel per light vehicle declined every year until 214 (with the exception of 29) which is why travel has not increased in line with vehicle numbers. Part of the reason for the decline in travel per light vehicle was the increase in vehicles per capita from 2 to 25 (see Figures 1.5 and 1.6) and again more recently. 14, Figure 1.7 : Light fleet average annual travel per vehicle 13,5 13, 12,5 12, 11,5 11, 1, How does the age of the New Zealand fleet compare internationally? This comparison has been confined to countries with high levels of motorisation, and with similar patterns of development to New Zealand. The United Kingdom has not been included as its motorisation level is comparatively low. New Zealand has a comparatively old fleet compared with other developed countries. NZ light Australia Canada USA Figure 1.8 : Average light fleet age 22 Cars Average vehicle age (years) Source : USA Polk, Canada DesRosiers and Automotive Industries Association, Australia Bureau of Statistics 9

11 Litres per 1 km of travel Light petrol fleet fuel economy The economy of the light petrol fleet has been estimated by comparing the travel of the light petrol fleet with petrol deliveries, less estimated other uses of petrol. The fuel that has been removed from the calculation is: petrol used on-road by other parts of the fleet (motorcycles, heavy goods vehicles and buses) fuel used off-road (boats and jet skis, lawnmowers, circuit racing, rallying, speedway, off-road motorcycling and agricultural quad bikes), which is estimated as percent of petrol deliveries 4 The bars on the chart in Figure 1.9 show petrol economy estimates, which are based on the minimum (4.7 percent) and maximum (5.7 percent) percentage of petrol thought not to be used by the light fleet. The resulting rates are indicative of what happens on New Zealand roads under New Zealand driving conditions. These values are higher than the vehicle fuel test cycle values shown in Section 9, which are based on European and Japanese regulatory test cycles. There is evidence that real world fuel consumption is higher than the manufacturers laboratory test values, and the gap between them is widening 5. The graph indicates that real world petrol economy improved only slightly between 26 and 211, despite the entry of more fuel-efficient vehicles into the fleet (also see Section 9). It improved by 7% between 211 and 217. The petrol estimates used are Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) observed values, which MBIE collates from fuel company reporting. 1.5 Figure 1.9 : Light petrol fleet fuel economy Minimum and maximum estimates Vehicle fleet CO2 emissions Vehicles produce CO2 in direct proportion to the amount of fuel used. Modern vehicles are typically engineered to reduce their harmful emissions, and sometimes this is confused with their CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are purely a product of the fuel consumed, and are not affected by any controls a vehicle has to reduce harmful emissions (such as fine particulates, NOx, carbon monoxide, volatile organics and hydrocarbons). Figure 1.1 : 216 CO 2 emissions Motorcycle.3% Heavy fleet 25.5% Light passenger fleet 57.7% Light commercial 16.4% Source : VFEM (Vehicle Fleet Emission Model) 4 The off-road fuel use could be over-estimated, see detail in the accompanying data spreadsheet. Refer and 1

12 Population increase and the light fleet Growth in the light fleet in the last three years has mirrored population growth. Population growth has increased substantially with positive net migration. In 211/12 more people left New Zealand than arrived but since then arrivals have outnumbered departures. Figure 1.11a shows the recent correlation between population and light fleet growth. Figure 1.11b shows that the turn around in net migration since 213/14 is due both to a reduction in New Zealanders leaving and an increase in non-new Zealanders arriving. 175, Figure 1.11a : Net migration and light fleet growth 15, 125, 1, 75, 5, 25, -25, 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 GFC and recovery Net migration Natural population growth Light fleet growth 125, 1, 75, 5, 25, -25, -5, -75, -1, Figure 1.11b : Net migration 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 New Zealanders arriving Non-New Zealanders arriving New Zealanders leaving Non-New Zealanders leaving 11

13 Age in years Percentage of vehicles Vehicles 2. Composition of the fleet New Zealand new and used imported vehicles Used imported vehicles make up a large proportion of the light vehicle fleet. Figure 2.1 shows their share reached almost 5 percent in 26 before dropping back to 46% recently. Figure 2.2 shows that the used import share of the bus and truck fleet is also dropping. The used import segment of the bus and truck fleets was initially growing faster than the used imported segment of the light fleet. This growth has ceased since the 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule effectively prevented the import of older used diesel vehicles. There have also been increased sales of new buses since 27 (see Figure 5.1d). 4,, 3,5, Figure 2.1 : Light fleet composition Total light new Total light used import 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, % Light used % Truck used % Bus used % Figure 2.2 : Fleet used import percentage 4% 3% 2% Average vehicle age The average age of the light fleet (14.1 years) and the truck fleet (17.8 years) has increased. This is not isolated to New Zealand and one possible influence is improved mechanical reliability, leading to vehicles lasting longer Light fleet average age Truck fleet average age Bus fleet average age Figure 2.3 : Fleet average age

14 Vehicles Age in years The average age of the vehicles in the light fleet is high by international standards (see Figure 1.8). Figure 2.4 shows that the average age of the used imported light passenger vehicles in the fleet is increasing and that the average age of the NZ new light passenger vehicles is remaining about the same. The aging of the large block of mid 199s vehicle shown in Figure 2.5a drives this trend Figure 2.4 : Light fleet average age Light passenger NZ new Light passenger used import Light commercial NZ New Light commercial used import Light fleet year of manufacture The light vehicle fleet age mix includes a significant number of used imports manufactured in the mid 199s. However, the number of used imports of this age block has been overtaken by that of those made in mid-2s. The 1996 year of manufacture peak in the New Zealand fleet is in part a consequence of the Frontal Impact Standard 6, which had the effect of restricting used car imports to those vehicles manufactured during or after 1996 (and some older vehicles that met the standard). On the other hand, the 25 year of manufacture peak is likely attributable to that fact that the requirement for used imports to meet the Japanese 5 emission standard was implemented in early 212. This prevent most vehicles built before 25 from being registered. As these mid-199s vehicles age, we expect a significant effect on the age of the fleet. The actual effect will depend on future vehicle import and scrappage patterns (see also Figures 2.5b, 2.11a- 2.11b, 2.12a-2.12d and Table 2). 2, 16, 12, Figure 2.5a : Light fleet year of manufacture at Dec 217 Light passenger NZ new Light passenger used import Light commercial NZ new 8, 4, Year of manufacture

15 Vehicles Figure 2.5b shows the relative numbers and ages of the vehicles in the light fleet. Mid-199s vehicles were once the largest single block, but they have been overtaken by 2-4 and 25-9 vehicles. 1,2, 1,, Figure 2.5b : Light fleet composition Dec 217 Used light New light 8, 6, 4, 2, Pre Period of Manufacture Tables 1 and 1a provide a cumulative view of the age structure of the light vehicle fleet at 31 December 217. Table 1 December 217 light fleet age structure Light vehicle age Share Upto 1 year old 7.8% Upto 2 years old 11.3% Upto 3 years old 14.7% Upto 4 years old 17.8% Upto 6 years old 23.6% Upto 8 years old 29.2% Upto 1 years old 39.3% Upto 15 years old 65.5% Upto 2 years old 81.3% Table 1a December 217 light fleet age structure Year of manufacture Vehicles 14 Cumulative vehicles Cumulative share , , % ,81 297, % , , % ,79 557, % , , % ,59 791,83 2.8% ,26 895, % 21 18,34 1,3, % 29 15,45 1,18, % 28 17,882 1,279, % ,824 1,492, % ,299 1,734, % ,48 2,, % ,33 2,226,3 58.6% 23 13,82 2,356, % ,715 2,489, % ,747 2,616, % 2 12,362 2,737, % ,611 2,845, % ,927 2,958, % ,179 3,87, %

16 Vehicles Vehicles ,188 3,234, % ,381 3,326, % ,981 3,43, % ,27 3,456, % ,328 3,56, % ,73 3,545, % ,699 3,583, % ,66 3,69,79 95.% ,81 3,625, % ,961 3,637, % ,86 3,646, % ,659 3,655, % ,135 3,662, % ,388 3,668, % ,31 3,673, % ,892 3,678, % 198 and earlier 12,474 3,798,839 1.% There is a significant difference between the make-up of the light passenger and light commercial fleets. Light commercial vehicles are typically relatively young New Zealand-new vehicles, whereas the passenger fleet has a far higher proportion of older used imports. 6, Figure 2.5c : Light passenger fleet composition Dec 217 Light passenger new 5, Light passenger used 4, 3, 2, 1, Pre Period of manufacture 14, 12, Figure 2.5d : Light commercial fleet composition Dec 217 Light commercial new Light commercial used 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Pre Period of manufacture

17 Vehicles Number of Vehicles Motorcycle and moped year of manufacture The motorcycle and moped fleet grew rapidly from 24 to 28 (see Figure 1.2). The age structure (Figure 2.6a) shows that registrations peaked in 28, and resurged from 213 onwards. Used imports only make up a limited share of these registrations. Also see Figure 2.6b. 15, Figure 2.6a : Motorcycle year of manufacture Dec 217 Motorcycle NZ new Motorcycle used 1, 5, Year of manufacture Motorcycles and mopeds have typically been purchased new in recent years, although there is a higher proportion of used imports among the older bikes. 4, 3, Figure 2.6b : Motorcycle fleet composition Dec 217 Motorcycle new Motorcycle used 2, 1, Pre Period of manufacture

18 Vehicles Number of Vehicles Truck year of manufacture The truck age structure (Figure 2.7a) shows large numbers of 199s used imports in that fleet, which is a characteristic of the light fleet as well. See also Figure 2.7b. The peaks in used vehicle models that were made in the mid-199s reflected the effective banning of these vehicles in many Japanese cities for air quality reasons. This was achieved by a retrospective requirement for vehicles to meet more recent emission standards. Many owners chose to export their vehicles rather than fit aftermarket emission controls. Imports of used diesel trucks fell after 25 (see Figure 5.1c). Truck registrations have increased significantly since the low point from 29 to 21. 7,5 Figure 2.7a : Truck year of manufacture Dec 217 Truck NZ new Truck used 5, 2,5 Year of manufacture 2, 15, Figure 2.7b : Truck fleet composition Dec 217 Truck NZ new Truck used 1, 5, Pre Period of manufacture

19 Vehicles Vehicles Number of Vehicles Bus year of manufacture The bus fleet has a different age profile from that of the truck fleet. It has a larger proportion of recent New Zealand new vehicles. 75 Figure 2.8a : Bus year of manufacture Dec 217 Bus NZ new Bus used 5 25 Year of manufacture 2, 1,5 Figure 2.8b : Bus fleet composition Dec 217 Bus NZ new Bus used 1, 5 Pre Period of manufacture Heavy fleet gross vehicle mass The used imported vehicles in the heavy fleet are concentrated in the small to medium mass range. 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Figure 2.9 : Heavy fleet mass Dec 217 NZ New Buses Used Import Buses NZ New Trucks Used Import Trucks Gross Vehicle Mass (kg) 18

20 Vehicles Light fleet age structure Figures 2.1a and 2.1b show how the age structure of the light fleet has changed since 2. In 2, 24.6% of the light fleet was 15 or more years old, but by 217 this had increased to 38%, down from a peak of 42.3% in 213. Vehicle replacement volumes dropped significantly in and the effect can be seen in the levelling off of the light fleet size (see Figure 2.1a) until the increase in vehicle registrations in ,, Figure 2.1a : Light fleet age structure 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 2+ years years 1-14 years 5-9 years -4 years Fleet year 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Figure 2.1b : Light fleet age structure Fleet year 2+ years years 1-14 years 5-9 years -4 years 19

21 199s vehicles in the light vehicle fleet The New Zealand light vehicle fleet has a large number of vehicles built in the mid-199s (see pages 13-15). These older vehicles tend to have lower levels of crash worthiness (ability to protect their occupants in a crash) and higher levels of harmful emissions than vehicles built more recently, so there is interest in how quickly they are leaving the fleet. This section provides more detailed information on vehicles built in the 199s. Figure 2.11a shows that the 199s vehicles peaked at 1.8 million in the 26 fleet, and had dropped by 53% to.85 million by December 217. Figure 2.11a : 199s light vehicles in the fleets 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Fleet year Figure 2.11b shows the entry of large numbers of 1996 year of manufacture vehicles between 2 and 28, with 5, more of these in the fleet than models of any other year. This remains the largest model year with 146, 1996 vehicles still in the fleet in 217. The graph also shows the lower rate of scrappage of more recent model years (1998 and 1999), which is shown in another way in Figure 2.11c. 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Figure 2.11b : 199s light vehicles in the fleets Fleet year Year of manufacture

22 Table 2 shows the rates of entry and exit of 199s vehicles in the fleets. the average scrappage rate of all 199s vehicles in 217 was 9.8% i.e. 9.8% of those vehicles in the fleet at the start of 217 left during the year large numbers of vehicles will be in the fleet for some time (currently 444, vehicles, down from 494, a year ago or 9%) Table 2 Percentage change in the number of 199s vehicles in the fleet Vehicle year Fleet year Total 21.5% 4.2% 13.9% 1.8% 21.5% 15.1% 16.% 5.9% 4.3%.8% 9.3% %.6% 3.8% 7.1% 9.6% 28.3% 21.4% 26.1% 8.% 6.1% 8.8% % -1.8%.4% 1.9% 9.5% 16.6% 37.6% 2.8% 21.3% 8.1% 8.8% % -3.4% -1.9%.2% 3.2% 16.9% 17.5% 28.5% 14.9% 15.6% 6.9% % -5.2% -3.6% -2.%.9% 5.9% 19.2% 14.9% 22.7% 9.7% 4.6% % -7.% -5.4% -4.1% -2.1% 1.2% 5.1% 16.4% 12.9% 15.1% 1.6% % -8.8% -7.1% -5.6% -3.8% -1.9% 2.3% 6.% 17.6% 11.8% -.3% % -1.5% -8.8% -7.1% -5.2% -3.7% -1.6%.% 4.6% 13.8% -3.% % -1.4% -9.1% -7.5% -5.7% -4.1% -2.9% -2.2% -.9% 2.2% -4.7% % -11.4% -1.3% -8.5% -6.8% -5.1% -3.8% -3.1% -2.3% -1.4% -5.7% % -14.% -13.% -11.2% -9.2% -7.3% -5.5% -4.6% -3.5% -2.4% -7.6% % -11.8% -11.3% -9.6% -8.1% -6.5% -5.% -4.1% -3.1% -2.4% -6.5% % -12.% -11.9% -1.7% -9.4% -7.8% -6.3% -5.2% -4.2% -3.2% -7.4% % -12.5% -12.6% -11.5% -1.5% -9.3% -7.4% -6.6% -5.5% -4.3% -8.4% % -13.% -13.2% -12.2% -11.5% -1.7% -9.1% -8.3% -6.9% -5.7% -9.6% % -11.8% -12.1% -11.8% -11.3% -1.6% -9.3% -8.8% -7.6% -6.3% -9.5% % -1.8% -11.4% -11.4% -11.2% -1.9% -9.6% -9.3% -8.8% -7.8% -9.8% Scrappage rates: vehicle age and when the vehicle was manufactured The information in Table 2 shows that the survivability of vehicles of a given age is higher if they were manufactured more recently (i.e. the percentage scrapped is lower). For instance, consider the scrappage rates for the vehicles made in , Figure 2.11c shows that the scrappage rates are lower for these vehicles if they were made more recently. 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Figure 2.11c : Vehicle scrappage - same age, different year of manufacture Vehicle age when scrapped Year of manufacture

23 Figure 2.11d tracks the percentage change in the numbers of vehicles in the fleets. Positive numbers on the vertical axis show the rate of increase in numbers of that year of manufacture, and negative numbers show the rate of decrease (scrappage). 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% Figure 2.11d : Vehicle scrappage -15% Fleet year Year of manufacture Diesel light fleet age distribution The age of the light diesel fleet is related to the emissions controls in those vehicles, and their health impacts. The older diesels have less effective emissions controls. See tab 2.13 in the accompanying spreadsheet for the age distribution of the light diesel fleet, and tab 9.11 for a breakdown of the emissions standards to which the light fleet was built. 22

24 Millions of vehicle km Millions of vehicle km 3. Vehicle travel and age The breakdown of travel is shown in Figure , 12,5 1, 7,5 Figure 3.1 : Fleet travel in 217 Motorcycles Buses Trucks Light fleet used import Light fleet NZ new 5, 2,5 Pre Period of manufacture Light passenger vehicle travel makes up the majority of travel. 19.6% of this travel is done by vehicles manufactured during the 199s. 12, 9, Figure 3.2a : Light passenger fleet travel in 217 Used import light passenger NZ new light passenger 6, 3, Pre Period of manufacture New Zealand-new light vehicles do more travel overall than used imported light vehicles. New and used light passenger vehicles do about the same amount of overall travel but new light commercials do far more than used light commercials (see Figures 3.1, 3.2b and 3.2c). Figure 3.2b : Light fleet travel 217 Light commercial used import 3% Light passenger used import 39% Light passenger NZ new 41% Light commercial NZ new 17% 23

25 Millions of vehicle km Millions of vehicle km Millions of vehicle km Light commercial fleet travel is different from light passenger fleet travel. A higher proportion of travel is done by recently purchased New Zealand-new vehicles (also see Figure 2.5c). 3, 2,5 Figure 3.2c : Light commercial fleet travel in 217 Used import light commercial NZ new light commercial 2, 1,5 1, 5 Pre Period of manufacture % of travel by trucks is by vehicles built from 21 onwards, although they make up a much smaller part of the fleet than that (23%, see Figure 2.7b). 1, 8 Used truck NZ new truck Figure 3.2d : Truck travel in Pre Period of manufacture As with trucks, buses built from 21 do 48% of travel even though they only make up 31% of the bus fleet. 1 8 Used bus Figure 3.2e : Bus travel in Pre Period of manufacture 24

26 km per vehicle km per vehicle Average vehicle travel by vehicle age There is a clear relationship between vehicle age and travel - older vehicles are not driven as far each year. The patterns of used and new light vehicle travel also vary with vehicle age. There is a difference in travel patterns between light commercial and light passenger vehicles. Light commercial vehicles are driven further each year than passenger vehicles until they reach an age of about 15 years, after which the annual distances are similar. In some cases, the travel by vehicles manufactured in appears low, but that is because on average new vehicles purchased in 217 were only in the fleet for 6 months. 25, 2, Figure 3.4a : Travel per light vehicle in 217 Travel per new light passenger Travel per used light passenger 15, 1, 5, Pre Period of manufacture On average diesel vehicles travel further than petrol vehicles of the same age. Many light diesel vehicles are light commercials (utes and vans) though diesel SUVs are classed as light passenger vehicles in this report. 25, 2, Figure 3.4b : Light petrol and diesel travel per vehicle in 217 Travel per light diesel vehicle Travel per light petrol vehicle 15, 1, 5, Pre Period of manufacture

27 Annual km per vehicle km per vehicle km per vehicle Figures 3.4c and 3.4d show that newer buses travel similar distances to trucks of the same age per vehicle per year, and older buses travel further than similarly aged trucks. Both travel more than light vehicles. Total travel by heavy vehicles is much less than that by light vehicles (see Figures 3.4c, 3.4d and 3.4e) as they are only a small part of the fleet (see Figure 1.1). Travel by used imported trucks is different as they tend to be smaller vehicles (see Figure 2.9) which are not usually used for long-distance freight. Travel by vehicles manufactured in appears low, but that is because on average new vehicles purchased in 217 were only in the fleet for six months. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Figure 3.4c : Truck travel per vehicle in 217 Travel per NZ new truck Travel per used import truck Pre , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Period of manufacture Figure 3.4d : Bus travel per vehicle in 217 Travel per NZ new bus Travel per used import bus Pre Period of manufacture Light commercial vehicles are typically driven further than light passenger vehicles early in their life. This effect starts to diminish as the vehicles age, and has disappeared by the time they are about 2 years old. There has been little change in this pattern since , 2, 15, Figure 3.5 Light fleet average travel in 217, by vehicle age Light commercial Light fleet Light passenger 1, 5, Year of manufacture 26

28 Average CC Average CC 4. Light fleet engine capacity trends These graphs show the average engine capacity for the light vehicle fleet from January 2 through to December 217. The average engine capacity of the fleet grew between 2 and 21. Since then the average engine size of New Zealand new light vehicles has levelled off and that of used imports has dropped a little. The New Zealand-new component of the fleet has a significantly larger average engine capacity than the used imported component. The trends in diesel and petrol engine capacities are quite different, as shown in Figure 4.1b. The capacity of New Zealand-new petrol vehicles within the fleet showed a large increase. It also shows that the average diesel engine is significantly larger than the average petrol engine. New Zealand did not record fuel consumption data on the motor vehicle register before 25. Therefore, engine capacity was previously used as a proxy for fuel consumption, but it does not take improvements in engine efficiency into account, or other factors such as vehicle weight gain. 2,5 Figure 4.1a : Light fleet average engine capacity 2,25 2, All light fleet Used import light fleet NZ new light fleet 1, Fleet date 3, Figure 4.1b : Light fleet average engine capacity 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, 1, Light petrol fleet Used petrol light fleet NZ new petrol light fleet Light diesel fleet Used diesel light fleet NZ New diesel light fleet 27

29 Change Vehicles The mix of engine sizes in the light fleet has been changing. There has been a significant growth in the cc class. 4,, Figure 4.2a : Light fleet engine size trend 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, < 135 The engine-size class that showed the greatest rate of growth is cc, but the number of these vehicles is relatively low. The cc class has shown the most growth in terms of the numbers of vehicles. 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% Figure 4.2b : Light fleet engine size trend, relative to Jan 2 6% <

30 Annual km/vehicle Annual km/vehicle Light fleet travel by engine capacity and age Smaller-engined light passenger vehicles do less annual travel than other vehicles, and vehicles with the largest engines travel more than other vehicles, especially early in their life. 3, 25, 2, Figure 4.3a : Light passenger average travel 217 < cc cc cc 3cc+ 15, 1, 5, Year of manufacture The pattern for light commercial vehicles is similar to that for light passenger vehicles, although the amount of travel is far higher. Again, the vehicles with larger engines do the most travel per vehicle early in their life. Very small light commercials are uncommon, which accounts for the erratic nature of their line in Figure 4.3b. 3, 25, 2, 15, Figure 4.3b : Light commercial average travel 217 < cc cc cc 3cc+ 1, 5, Year of manufacture 29

31 Light fleet travel trend by engine capacity Table 3 provides a different view of travel and engine capacity. The proportion of travel done by vehicles with engine sizes of 2cc or more grew significantly between 21 and 28, but has only changed slightly since then. Table 3 Light Fleet travel (millions VKT 7 ) Period Engines under 2cc Engines 2+ cc Travel by vehicles 2+ cc 2+ cc vehicles 21 2,784 13,23 39% 35% 22 21,14 14,92 4% 36% 23 21,59 15,19 42% 38% 24 2,856 16,27 44% 39% 25 2,379 17,3 46% 41% 26 19,849 17,462 47% 42% 27 19,671 18,179 48% 43% 28 19,74 18,173 49% 43% 29 18,972 18,357 49% 44% 21 18,934 18,365 49% 44% ,671 18,174 49% 45% ,645 18,28 5% 45% ,911 18,567 5% 45% ,351 19,6 5% 45% 215 2,43 19,865 5% 45% 216 2,96 2,916 5% 46% ,23 22,392 5% 46% 7 Vehicle Kilometres Travelled. 3

32 CC Motorcycle and moped fleet composition Machines under 6 cc showed strong growth from 25 to 28, but have been static since then. Much of the growth is in machines over 6 cc, which have been increasing since the early 2s. 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Figure 4.4 : Motorcycle fleet composition upto 6cc cc cc 61cc + Motorcycle and moped fleet average engine capacity The growth in the under 6cc sector resulted in the average engine capacity staying much the same from 24 and 29. Subsequent sales of machines with larger engines have increased the average engine capacity (see Figure 4.4 for a detailed breakdown of the fleet composition). Figure 4.5 : Average motorcycle/moped fleet engine size Fleet year 31

33 Exited Entered Exited Entered 5. Vehicles entering and exiting the fleet Figures 5.1a to 5.1e show the mix of vehicles that entered and exited the fleet between 21 and 217. The bars above zero on the vertical axis show vehicles entering the fleet and the bars below zero show vehicles that exited. The recent light passenger fleet size changes are shown in Table 4a. Table 4a : Light passenger fleet entries and exits Year Registered Scrapped Net change More used imports are now leaving the light passenger fleet than New Zealand-new vehicles. This reflects the vehicle mix that entered the fleet during the 199s. Light passenger vehicle registrations reflect economic cycles, though scrappage is less predictable. 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, Figure 5.1a : Light passenger entry and exit -2, Petrol NZ new in Petrol used in Diesel NZ new in Diesel used in Petrol NZ new out Petrol used out Diesel NZ new out Diesel used out The light commercial fleet grew slightly in 21 and 211, then by increasing numbers each following year. The recent fleet size changes are shown in Table 4b below. 65, 55, 45, 35, 25, 15, 5, -5, -15, -25, Table 4b : Light commercial fleet entry and exit Year Registered Scrapped Net change Figure 5.1b : Light commercial entry and exit Petrol NZ new in Petrol used in Diesel NZ new in Diesel used in Petrol NZ new out Petrol used out Diesel NZ new out Diesel used out 32

34 Exited Entered Exited Entered Exited Entered Comparing the light commercial fleet with the light passenger fleet shows that there are very few diesel-powered vehicles entering the passenger fleet. A high proportion of the new vehicles entering the light commercial fleet are diesel powered. Businesses are again buying significant numbers of vehicles, after the drop that started in 29. Figure 2.9 showed that used truck imports are typically lighter weight vehicles. Most of the used truck imports shown in Figure 5.1c have a gross vehicle mass under 1 tonnes (also see Figure 2.9). Used truck registrations remain at low levels but have picked up a little as vehicles become available that meet our emission requirements. While purchase patterns were influenced by the rule on used truck entry and the global financial crisis, there was not the same change in disposal patterns, which have remained relatively constant. 12, Figure 5.1c : Truck entry and exit 9, 6, 3, -3, -6, Petrol NZ new in Petrol used in Diesel NZ new in Diesel used in Petrol NZ new out Petrol used out The majority of the buses entering the fleet until 28 were relatively old used imports. The Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule effectively precluded these imports in January 28. Bus purchase and scrapping patterns do not follow the same patterns as trucks. This may reflect the fact that bus purchases are linked to government and council funding. 95 Figure 5.1d : Bus entry and exit Petrol NZ new in Petrol used in Diesel NZ new in Diesel used in Petrol NZ new out Petrol used out Diesel NZ new out Diesel used out The numbers of motorcycles and mopeds registered grew significantly between 24 and , Figure 5.1e : Motorcycle entry and exit 18, 12, 6, -6, -12, Petrol used out Petrol NZ new out Petrol used in Petrol NZ new in 33

35 Exited Entered Exited Entered Exited Entered Year of manufacture of vehicles entering and leaving the fleet Figures 5.2a to 5.2d show the year of manufacture of vehicles that entered (above the axis) and left the light fleet (below the axis) in 217. Virtually all of the new vehicles were manufactured in 217. See also Figures 2.4, 2.5a and 6.2b. Used vehicles leave the fleet slightly earlier than New Zealand-new vehicles. 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 5.2a : Light vehicles entering or leaving the fleet in 217 Light used in Light new in Light used out Light new out -2, Year of manufacture The numbers of near-new motorcycles leaving the fleet reflects the risk and severity of motorcycle crashes. 1, 8, 6, Figure 5.2b : Motorcycles entering or leaving the fleet in 217 MC used in MC new in MC used out MC new out 4, 2, -2, to Year of manufacture Few used imports entered the truck fleet in 217. Trucks leave the fleet much later than light vehicles. 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 Figure 5.2c : Trucks entering or leaving the fleet in 217 to 198 Truck used in Truck new in Truck used out Truck new out Year of manufacture 34

36 CC CC Exited Entered Extremely few used bus imports entered the fleet in 217. Few buses leave the fleet, which may be influenced by vehicles eventually being converted into mobile homes Figure 5.2d : Buses entering or leaving the fleet in 217 Bus used in Bus new in Bus used out Bus new out -1 to Year of manufacture Engine size of vehicles entering and leaving the light fleet The detailed breakdowns in Figure 5.3 show the engine sizes of light fleet entries and exits in < 4 < 3 Figure 5.3a : Petrol vehicles entering/leaving the light 217 fleet Petrol new in Petrol used in Petrol new out Petrol used out < 2 < 16 < 135 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,1, Vehicles 4+ < 4 < 3 Figure 5.3b : Diesel vehicles entering/leaving the light 217 fleet Diesel new in Diesel used in Diesel new out Diesel used out < 2 < 16 < 135 1, 2, 3, 4, Vehicles 35

37 Number of vehicles Average age Vehicles 6. Vehicles entering the fleet Registrations of new light vehicles have continued to grow and were at their highest levels ever in , 35, Figure 6.1 : Vehicles entering the light fleet Used vehicles New vehicles 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Year The average age of used imported vehicles entering the light fleet was increasing until 28. The 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule took effect in January 28, and required vehicles to be built to newer standards. That resulted in the average age dropping in 29. By 211 though, the average age of used imports entering the fleet was at an all time high. That was because older vehicles could be sourced for import, as the age range of the vehicles compliant with the rule broadened. The oldest used vehicles that could be imported in 28 were typically manufactured in 21, and it was still possible to import those vehicles until December 211. The next step of the Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule took effect in January 212, requiring vehicles to be built to 25 standards. The effect can be seen in the reduced average age on used import registrations in 212, which continued in 213. The average age on entry rose from 214 reflecting the fact that older vehicles are compliant again. 12 Figure 6.2a : Average age of light used imports entering the fleet Fleet year A breakdown of used light vehicle imports in 217 by age and fuel type shows they were overwhelmingly petrol powered Figure 6.2b : Used imports entering the light fleet in 217, by year of manufacture and fuel type Diesel Petrol Pre Year of manufacture 36