On the Cost Effectiveness of Electric Drive in Suburbia
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1 The submitted manuscript has been created by Argonne National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH The U.S. Government retains for itself, and others acting on its behalf, a paid-up, nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license in said article to reproduce, prepare derivative works, distribute copies to the public, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of the Government. On the Cost Effectiveness of Electric Drive in Suburbia TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference June 7-9, 2010 Raleigh, NC Anant Vyas, Danilo Santini Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory
2 Significant U.S. fuel saving requires electric drive in mass market platforms/gliders FWD unibody platforms; compact and mid-size cars, crossover SUV s Coming mass market plug-in electric vehicles: Compact Chevrolet Volt E-REV, Leaf & Ford Focus EV Midsize Toyota Prius Split PHEV Crossover SUV Ford C-Max Split PHEV 2
3 Platforms and Gliders for Success In Saving Significant Amounts of Fuel, Nationally PLATFORM (1) body-on-frame, longitudinal engine, RWD vs. unibody, transverse engine, FWD. Within these, size category wheelbase, track GLIDER CAR [2 seater, minicompact, subcompact, compact, midsize large, wagon], VAN [minivan, traditional van], SUV [crossover, traditional], PICKUP [ traditional, crew cab] Unibody transverse engine FWD platforms turned into compact and midsize cars, and crossover SUV gliders, sell in volume Evaluation approaches considered, chosen PSAT vehicle simulation model implemented by EPRI s Doug Saucedo TCO Total cost of ownership model implemented by EPRI s Bryan Jungers Car vs. Crossover SUV Constant platform/glider, no platform/glider switch from conventional to electric Certification test vs. real world driving Metropolitan vs. total annual driving 3
4 Mass Market Car Glider Trends: The Mix Of Cars Has Shifted Toward Midsize Our Platform/Glider 4
5 Cars Are Now Driven More Miles/Year Than Trucks Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review 5
6 HEV Success Is Primarily In EPA s Midsize Cars (Prius*, Camry, Fusion, Altima), Languished In Crossover SUVs * Within the EPA midsize category, the Prius, which accounts for ~ 50% of HEV sales, is relatively small. With respect to the stated preference survey results shown in the next two slides, we cannot say whether respondents would have thought the Prius small or large. Note that the NHTS survey used herein provides no distinction in size among cars, nor between crossover and traditional SUVs. 6
7 A 2004 stated preference survey had implied that HEVs would do best in small cars, next best in SUVs Source: Santini and Vyas, TRB paper , Table 1 7
8 In 04, those intending to purchase small cars with HEV powertrains strongly desired low fuel consumption Source: Santini and Vyas, TRB paper , Table 2 8
9 Market segmentation decisions 1 (NHTS breakout) High vs. low daily miles High daily miles (>50) vs. typical miles (<50) battery pack life goal 10 years Vehicles < 10 years old (search for vehicles with < = 10 year life) Vehicles departing house in the morning, returning at night Inter-city Interstate highway miles are not represented (they are removed, and the NHTS undercounts them in any case) Vehicle use desired return to charger in house during day Work trips only Work and other trips Non-work trips only 9
10 Total Load [MW] CHARGE IN OVERNIGHT TROUGH, NOT ON PEAK! Dinner time peaks occur when air conditioning demand is absent. 40,000 35,000 Summer 30,000 25,000 Winter 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Spring Fall Week 2 Week 15 Week 28 Week 41 Weekday Weekend NY-ISO Seasonal Load Profiles Hour in Week 10
11 Market segmentation decisions 2 (deductive logic) Keeping charging costs for initial vehicles low. What are minimum charge circuit needs for > 1 charge/day? Work only vehicle use needs 2 chargers, reject Work and other trips promotes second charge at the dinner time peak reject Here is our target market! Modern, low density suburbia Non-work only, return to the house probable one level 2 charger supports 2 nd charge, perhaps also V2H, and/or V2G. Low cost charge circuits are possible in new (post 1990s) houses. These dwellings probably have the highest garage share. Battery packs protected more hours in garages will last longer. Women are more likely to be drivers. They dislike gas stations. 11
12 Among segments considered, the chosen initial market segment has the largest % of NHTS sample miles 12
13 Our analysis is hypothetical For a low load mid-size car; what is the most cost effective electric drive option? HEV, PHEV, E-REV, or EV? Does any electric drive option beat a conventional powertrain in this body? How do charge depletion distance, charge rate, battery life, and charge frequency affect benefit/cost? Economic incentives intensively use up expected cycles (~ 3000+) of battery packs before calendar life (7, hopefully 10 yrs) ends, keep in-wall charge circuit and EVSE (wall plug to vehicle cord) costs to minimum 13
14 4 electric drive powertrain types, nominal and real world charge depletion distances are examined Vehicle body design, tire types are held constant (Prius-like car, but bigger) Battery Electric Vehicle (100 nominal miles to battery pack charge depletion) Nearest coming example, Nissan Leaf Extended Range Electric Vehicle (20, 30, 40 miles nominal to depletion) All electric operation (engine off) during charge depletion Nearest coming example, Chevrolet Volt, 40 miles nominal depletion Split hybrid (0, 10, 20 miles depletion distance) Blended mode during normal driving to charge depletion (engine comes on) Nearest present & coming example, Toyota Prius, PHEV depletion in ~ 12 miles Conventional powertrain State of the art, but not direct injection turbocharged engine There is no high volume conventional vehicle with as low aerodynamic drag and with similarly low rolling resistance tires as our simulated glider. 14
15 The driving cycles are real world. Top speeds are similar, but stop frequency differs greatly. 15
16 MPH of the LA92 ~ < 50 mi/day group; Artemis Extra Urban ~ > 50 mi/day group. UDDS, Highway, US06 acceleration and deceleration rates are not typical of real world driving. Also, UDDS is too slow, Highway and US06 too fast. Schedule Name Average Speed [mph] Cycle Distance [miles] Average Acceleration [meters/sec 2 ] Average Deceleration [meters/sec 2 ] UDDS LA Highway Artemis Extra Urban US Average Acceleration & Deceleration: (1) Artemis Extra Urban: > Highway and < US06 Cycles. (2) LA92: > UDDS. 16
17 The average speed driven by our target market segment is close to Artemis Extra Urban s 37.5 mph 17
18 Since Artemis and LA92 cycles use more kwh/mi, their ranges are less than rated via UDDS tests Note: temperature extremes (not addressed) disproportionately reduce battery performance & range 18
19 The target market drives further, spends more time driving, is hurried, needs level 2 for 2 nd charge 19
20 Costs of upgrading charging circuits can be significant. Trenching costs increase public infrastructure costs Level 1 Residential $0 = 15 amp standard household plug $ up to 20 amp (circuit & outlet near electrical panel) (EPRI 2002) $830 (Apt., 20 amp) $880 (House, 20 amp) (Morrow, et al, 2007) Level 2 Residential (per space when apartments) $ amp (circuit & outlet near electrical panel) (EPRI 2002) $ (Carolin, Nissan, 2009) (we used $1300 for the EV100) $1520 (Apt.) -$2150 (House) (Morrow et al, 2007) Retrofit - $4000 (Boyce, Plug-in 2009, A. Vyas ANL notes) City of Vancouver - $ for new apartment complexes Commercial $1850 (Morrow et al, 2007); $30,000 for 10 (BCHydro, 2009) Boyce SMUD (Commercial $6300, level not specified) Level 2 public $13,000 for two spots (BCHydro, 2009) Level 3 public fast charging ($17,000-19,000 by Nissan, 2 outlets, no installation; $64,000 for 2, installed BCHydro, 2009) 20
21 In the target market the EV requires 2 charges/day. An option for 1.5 charges/day for E-REV40 is included. Our assumptions Level 1 plugs are within 25 feet, no circuit upgrade cost PHEV10, PHEV20, E-REV20, E-REV30, E-REV40 in LA92. Level 1 cord cost $200 Level 2 Circuit boards in garage, no trenching of new cable. EVs must have level 2 due to need for at least some public charging and to charge quickly during the day when daily use exceeds range (Artemis Urban). E-REV40 upgrade option, 1.5 charges/day evaluated public charge points per EV for Artemis Urban case; 0.05 for LA92 (rare need, range more than adequate). Level 2 house upgrade $1300, public charge point $1800. Less than 0.02 fast charge points per EV, at $34,000 per charge point cord cost $350. Caveat: Battery packs assumed to last 5000 full discharge equivalents. 21
22 At 105 Miles/Day, All Extra Urban PHEVs and E-REVs Charged Once/Day Drive Far More in CS than CD Mode. <50 Miles, Home-to-Home, Non-work Daily Energy Use Over 19.4 Miles (LA92 Cycle) Vehicle Type RPE Galn Est AER Miles Wall Plug kwh Fuel Cost ($4/g) Electricity Cost ($0.1/kWh) Total Energy Cost Cost of Energy on Daily Average Miles Basis (329 days/year Use) >50 Miles, Home-to-Home, Non-work Daily Energy Use Over Miles (Artemis Extra Urban Cycle) Gallon Est AER Miles Wall Plug kwh Fuel Cost ($4/g) Electricity Cost ($0.1/kWh) Total Energy Cost Conventional $19, $3.30 $ $14.00 $14.00 Split CS HEV $24, $2.30 $ $9.47 $9.47 Split PHEV10 $26, $1.50 $0.27 $ $8.77 $0.27 $9.03 Split PHEV20 $27, $0.83 $0.53 $ $8.07 $0.53 $8.60 EREV 20 $30, $0.87 $0.49 $ $8.65 $0.49 $9.13 EREV 30 $31, $0.14 $0.74 $ $8.12 $0.74 $8.86 EREV 40 $33, $0.00 $0.78 $ $5.66 $1.50 $7.16 EV 100 $35, $0.65 $ $2.97 $2.97 Notes: RPE includes $200 for charging cords (EVSE). Rated All electric operation rated charge depleting distance is based on the UDDS driving cycle. Electric drive components for the split HEVs are sized to allow all electric operation on the UDDS for the design distance. E-REV and EV motor and battery pack power enable all electric operation on these cycles. The split HEV10 and 20 deplete blended. On the driving cycles simulated, which are more aggressive, actual charge depletion distance is less than rated distance. The > 50 mile case EV initial costs include required costs of upgrading to level 2 charging to allow 2 charges per day ($1775). The > 50 mile case for the E-REV40 adds an optional charge equipment upgrade case to allow 1.5 charges per day ($1650) and All others use level 1 charging, 1 charge/day. Net present value of savings is discounted at 5%/yr, assuming a ten year life. 22
23 Incremental Benefit to Cost Ratios(B/C) are used in the next 4 slides. These points may aid interpretation. The time frame assumed is about 2020, with sales volume supporting 100,000 battery packs per pack manufacturing facility. The actual battery cost curve used was developed for Ni-MH. At 100,000 packs per year, Li-ion may not be any cheaper than NiMH, though it has been projected by Kromer and Heywood (MIT LFEE, 2007) to be about 30% cheaper at much higher volumes, by Electric machines are permanent magnet, not induction. The vehicle prices and fuel consumption are based on simulation and modeling done by Doug Saucedo and Bryan Jungers of EPRI, subcontracted to Argonne. Prices assume no subsidy. The reference vehicle used is the split HEV, represented by the vertical dotted line. Incremental costs are the difference in estimated initial sales price of the specified vehicle less the HEV price. In the case of the conventional vehicle only, this is a negative value, otherwise is positive. Benefits are the net present value of fuel costs changes for metro area operation of the specified vehicle instead of the HEV, for the specified daily miles and driving cycle. Inter-city operation is not included. We assume that these vehicles are being considered by a small subset of the new vehicle buying population that is well educated, has higher than average income, with a solid credit rating and access to relatively low interest loans (or able to pay cash). The group is assumed to have a much longer time horizon than the average population, much more willing to wait for a return on investment (otherwise they would not have invested in significantly more education than the average person). A minority of the group is assumed to be innovative, with a great interest in advanced technology. In general, the nominally best investment is the one with the highest B/C ratio, but in the rare case that the B/C ratio exceeds 1.0, the choice of the specified vehicle instead of an HEV is to be regarded as more desirable than the HEV. Only comparisons within the target markets are valid, not across. 23
24 At present fuel prices, for 5 yr battery packs, nearly all electric drive has much lower B/C than conventional. In target market, the HEV (dotted line = 1.0) is best. 24
25 At $4/gallon, even if battery packs last only 5 yrs, the twice charged EV has B/C ratio > CV in target market 25
26 At 3$/gal, if target market battery packs & cars last 10 years, the HEV, PHEV10 & 20 and EV beat the CV 26
27 At $5/gal in the target market the Split PHEVs become slightly more attractive than the HEV. Any electric drive option is superior to the CV. 27
28 At $6/gal, if batteries (& cars in target market) last 10 yrs, Split PHEVs become the best mass market option 28
29 Observations The conventional vehicle is never the best option for the > 50 mile group. An EV100 charged twice a day had a benefit cost ratio > $5/gal & up o For < 50 mile group, its pack size far exceeded the daily driving needs, cost more, and was not used fully; sharply reducing the benefit/cost (B/C) ratio. For charge depletion within the <50 mile $5 & $6/gal the E-REV30 had the highest benefit/cost ratio, its charge depletion distance most closely matching the average needs. o For <50 mile group, B/C ratio varied only slightly among the EV, E-REV40, E-REV30, and E- REV20. We think E-REVs are more marketable generally than the EV100. The Split HEVs-based PHEVs consistently had superior B/C ratios in comparison to the E-REVs and EV (when also charged once per day). The Split PHEV10 & 20 are estimated to be superior to the HEV if the battery lasts 10 years and fuel prices rise to $5/gallon and above. When the costs of circuit upgrades from level 1 to level 2 exceed ~ $1300, (as they often will) it would cost less to add 10 miles of rated range to a PHEV10 (make it a PHEV20) than to invest in level 2 to enable 2 charges/day. 29
30 Thank You Anant Vyas Danilo Santini 30
31 Appendix A Attributes of vehicles simulated for this study 31
32 Simulated vehicle attributes - components Vehicle Driving Cycle Test Gross Vehicle Weight (Grade test ICE Peak Electric Machine 1 Peak Electric Machine 1 Continuous Electric Machine 2 Peak Electric Machine 2 Continuous Battery life end 10 sec. peak Battery life end nominal energy Component Name Weight load) Power Power Power Power Power power Component units (kg) (kg) (kw) (kw) (kw) (kw) (kw) kw kwh Vehicle Name Conventional n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Split HEV Split PHEV Split PHEV Series EREV Series EREV Series EREV Electric EV
33 Simulated vehicle attributes charge sustaining performance targets vs. achievements Attribute >> 0 to 60 mph 30 to 60 mph 50 to 80 mph 0-90 mph 0 to 110 mph Top-Speed Final Speed Target >> (9 sec) (6 sec) (9 sec) (25 sec) (30 sec) (110 mph) (90 mph) Vehicle name Conventional Split HEV Split PHEV Split PHEV Series EREV Series EREV Series EREV Electric EV
34 Simulated vehicle attributes charge depleting performance targets vs. achievements Attribute >> 0 to 60 mph 30 to 60 mph 50 to 80 mph 0-90 mph 0 to 110 mph Top-Speed Final Speed Target >> (9 sec) (6 sec) (9 sec) (25 sec) (30 sec) (110 mph) (90 mph) Vehicle name Conventional n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Split HEV n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Split PHEV Split PHEV Series EREV Series EREV Series EREV Electric EV
35 Simulated vehicle attributes auxiliary loads Average Accessories Energy Intensity [Wh/mi] Conventional HEV/PHEV/EREV/EV Schedule name Class Mech. Elec. Mech. Elec. UDDS Certification LA92 Real-World Artemis Extra Urban Real-World US06 Real-World HWFET Certification
36 Simulated vehicle attributes depletion distance, kwh/mi, gasoline use per 100 miles UDDS CD mi. (nominal rating) LA92 CD mi. LA92 CD electric use (kwh/mi) LA92 CD gasoline use (gal/100mi) LA 92 CS gasoline use (gal/100mi) Artemis Extra Urban CD mi. Artemis EU CD electric use (kwh/mi) Artemis EU CD gasoline use (gal/100mi) Aretmis EU CS gasoline use (gal/100mi) Vehicle Type Conventional n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.25 n/a n/a n/a 3.33 Split HEV n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.97 n/a n/a n/a 2.25 Split PHEV Split PHEV EREV EREV EREV EV n/a n/a 36
37 Estimated vehicle retail prices and increments in price (or cost) our study vs. two recent others Vehicle Name Our study - Retail Price ($), 2020~ Our 2020 Retail Price increment vs. Split HEV Moawad et al - Retail Price ($), nearterm Moawad et al Retail Price increment vs. Split HEV Kromer & Heywood 07 OEM cost Δ vs. parallel HEV, 2030 Kromer & Heywood 07 OEM cost increment vs. conventional 2030 Our Retail Price increment vs. Conventional 2020 Moawad et al Retail Price increment vs. Conventional Near term Conventional, naturally aspirated Split HEV # 2784 # Parallel HEV* ** 3550** Split PHEV Parallel PHEV10* Split PHEV Parallel PHEV ^ Series EREV Series EREV Series EREV Series PHEV40* * Electric EV Electric EV ~ Vehicle attributes estimated by D. Saucedo of EPRI. Retail prices estimated by Bryan Jungers of EPRI * Estimated by Saucedo and Jungers of EPRI, not discussed in this presentation. Included to facilitate interim comparison to Kromer and Heywood. ** The two parallel HEVs in this row have much lower peak battery power than our split HEV in the row above. In July of 2008 MIT (Bandivatikar et al) published a retail price increase estimate of $2500, for the year ^ In July of 2008 MIT MIT (Bandivatikar et al) published a retail price increase estimate of $5900, for the year # The Moawad et al split HEV design uses a considerably lower power battery pack than ours. 37
38 Our analysis differs from Kromer and Heywood s 2007 study We are interested in 2020 (100,000 packs/yr), not 2030 (millions of packs?) Our glider has a higher load (frontal area, mass, rolling resistance) Our EV is designed for 100 miles of nominal range, not 200; we consider a 2 charge/day case for the EV, Kromer and Heywood did not. We simulate split PHEVs with 2 electric machines, not a parallel with one We simulate the E-REV design, Kromer and Heywood did not. The direct injection turbocharged spark ignited engine is not simulated (Kromer and Heywood estimated it to be superior to the NA-SI engine) No diesel is simulated (Kromer and Heywood estimated it to be inferior) Our driving cycles are more directly representative of real world driving, not a weighted average of extremes (UDDS, Highway, US06) We begin to consider the costs of house level infrastructure modifications (charge circuit costs for upgrades from Level 1 to Level 2 charging) We do not combine LA92 and Artemis Extra Urban driving to one cycle 38
39 Appendix B Potential benefits of platform and glider switching by plug-in hybrid adopters Logical types of beneficial switches: I. Conventional midsize (Camry, Fusion, Altima) to Prius mid-size two step decision (a) conventional body and engine to conventional body HEV (b) conventional body with HEV to Prius or Volt II. Traditional body-on-frame SUV to crossover SUVlike Ford C-Max (a) conventional body and engine to conventional body HEV (b) conventional body with HEV to Ford C-Max body with HEV 39
40 Significant U.S. fuel saving requires electric drive in mass market platforms/gliders FWD unibody platforms; compact and mid-size cars, crossover SUV s Compact Chevrolet Volt E-REV, Ford Focus EV Midsize Toyota Prius Split PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV Note: aside from switching Prius HEV intenders, coming E-REV & PHEV cars require a glider switch with drag area reduction Crossover SUV Ford C-Max Split PHEV Note: SUV italicized because definition of trucks to change in 2012, crossover SUV with FWD becomes a car, crossover SUV with 4WD stays a truck. Switching from RWD body-on-frame traditional SUV to 4WD crossover SUV reduces drag area & mass 40
41 Hybrid powertrains benefit more from glider load reduction than conventional powertrains, enticing efficiency-improving platform/glider switches From Graham et al 2001 Comparing the Benefits and Impacts of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Options, EPRI
42 A within-midsize platform/glider switch to a Prius eliminates the luggage space loss of HEVs in conventional midsize passenger cars 42
43 A strong mass market platform trend: within SUV switch to crossover sport utility vehicles 43
44 HEV advantages are minimal on Interstates, yet if HEVs are in lower-load gliders, high speed Interstate advantages result At High Interstate Speeds, Measured Fuel Use Advantage of Aerodynamic Car HEVs Increased Source: Duoba et al, EVS21 - Investigating Vehicle Fuel Economy Robustness of Conventional and Hybrid Electric Vehicles 44
45 Share of Light Duty Truck Market The SUV accounts for the success of the truck. SUV share growth defied gasoline price increases. Minivans contributed % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SUV Pickup Minivan (FWD Van) Std. Van Y e a r 45
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