When Will the U.S. Market Recover and What Will It Look Like When It Does? George M. Magliano Director, North America

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1 When Will the U.S. Market Recover and What Will It Look Like When It Does? George M. Magliano Director, North America

2 Auto Market Has Downshifted and Will Remain Depressed for Most of This Year The economy (down 3%) will be particularly brutal on the auto market this year, the worst will occur in the first half The selling rate (SAAR) has been driven to levels that have not been seen since 1982 and the lowest annual volume since 1964 The auto recovery will be anemic The auto market credit crisis is showing some faint signs of improvement, although not for dealers yet Leasing is still dead for Detroit Incentive spending has moved up Falling sales have made inventory a problem for both cars and trucks and production has been scaled back for both Detroit and the transplants The competitive face of the industry will change drastically even with government support as companies work through bankruptcy

3 Buying Conditions: Do You Think the Next 12 Months Will be a Good Time to Buy a Car? 80 (Percent Responding Favorably) The consumer knows the deals are there Univ. of Michigan Survey Months

4 Intention to Buy New Vehicle in 6 Months (Percent Yes) We might be at the bottom, points to a better second half Month Moving Average Actual Conference Board, March 2009

5 New Auto Loan Rates Finance Companies (Percent) If you qualify, you will enjoy a great loan rate! Months Federal Reserve Board

6 New Auto Loan Rates Delinquency Rates The auto subprime crisis worsened in 2008 and it really hurt sales 4.0 (% - Accounts past due 30 days or more) Direct (Bank) Loans Indirect (Dealer) Loans Source: American Banker s Association Months

7 New Vehicle Buyers Average Credit Score Avg. Score Auto lending is beginning to loosen up Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 FICO SCORE % UNDER 670 Percent 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Source: CNW Marketing

8 Manufacturer Incentives Manufacturers have increased incentives, but the consumer response has been minimal. Cash and low interest will not make up for the loss of leases. $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Nissan Honda Source: CNW Marketing

9 Lease Share 30 (Percent) Plummeting truck residuals has crippled leasing Months Source: CNW Marketing

10 U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory Units Total stocks are in balance, but this masks the true picture (Units in thousands) 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2, Months Seasonally Adjusted

11 U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory Days Supply (Days Supply) Falling sales have caused an inventory imbalance, forcing further production cuts Cars Months Seasonally Adjusted Trucks

12 Cents U.S. Gasoline Retail Price All Grades/All Regions Per Gallon Consumers are more aware of gas prices and fuel economy but the new vehicle market is still nearly 50% trucks (Source: EIA division of DOE) Weeks Updated 6/1/2009

13 United States Car and Truck Sales, SAAR 13 (Units in millions) The recent shift away from truck to cars has been dramatic and somewhat exaggerated Cars to account for 55% of sales volume Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 CARS LT. TRUCKS

14 Sales Through 2009 Will Steadily Rise Recovery comes slowly and still yields a record low SAAR although May sales (9.892 SAAR) came in better than expected in part due to the fire sales at Chrysler and GM dealerships! (Monthly SAAR Rate) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

15 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Market is not back on track until 2012, a year after the economy recovers (Units in millions) Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)

16 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Relative to Driving Age Population 11% (Percent) 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Ages 16 to 85

17 U.S. Sales Major Manufacturers Market Share 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% GM FORD CHRYSLER TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN

18 U.S. Sales Asian Manufacturers Market Share 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% HYUNDAI KIA SUBARU MAZDA MITSUBISHI SUZUKI

19 U.S. Sales European Manufacturers Market Share 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% BMW DAIMLER AG VW GROUP PORSCHE

20 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Car Segments Units Honda Civic Honda Accord Acura RL Mid Premium 3,000,000 2,500,000 Honda Insight Honda Fit Acura TL Entry Premium 2,000,000 1,500,000 Honda Stream (coming to US in 2010) Nissan Maxima Acura TSX Near Premium Scion tc Small Specialty 1,000, ,000 0 SUBCOMPACT COMPACT COMPACT MPV LOWER MID UPPER MID & LARGE PREMIUM SPECIALTY

21 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Light Truck Segments Toyota Highlander Midsize CUV Toyota Sequoia Full Size SUV Units 4,000,000 3,500,000 Toyota 4Runner Mid Size SUV Toyota Tundra Midsize Pickup 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Toyota FJ Cruiser Entry SUV Toyota Sienna Midsize Van Toyota Tacoma Midsize Pickup 1,000, ,000 0 Crossover (CUV) Sport Utility (SUV) Mid/Full size Vans Fullsize Pickups Small/Mid Pickups

22 North American Light Vehicle Production (Units in millions) Production does not approach trend level of until : 15.03M units 2008: 12.58M units 2009: 8.45M units 2010: 10.37M units 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% VOLUME / UNITS - L % CAR (R-Scale)

23 Adjusted North American Straight-Time Capacity Solid long-term capacity utilization outlook does not portend new greenfield sites for existing manufacturers beyond what has been announced Roughly (Units in millions) 85 assembly sites Roughly 67 assembly sites % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Adjusted Capacity Utilization (R-Scale)

24 Final Thought on the Economy and Consumers All of this is very interesting and hopefully informative. But, at the end of the day, this industry more than almost any other is driven by ONE THING: If they don t start returning to the showrooms, everyone will continue to struggle. Every company, every supplier, every dealership, will falter.

25 The Bankruptcy Solution Due to the fluctuating situation in the U.S. auto industry, the Bankruptcy Section has been left blank for printing purposes. Conference presentations are available for download at

26 Total Market Bankruptcy Update Washington has made every effort to facilitate the bankruptcy process The Administration also appears to be willing to provide support to suppliers and dealers Bankruptcy, offset by a potential scrappage program, will have almost no impact upon total industry volume Chrysler and GM sales have already been impacted by the bankruptcy environment GM losses about 200,000 to 300,000 units annually relative to last months forecast, Chrysler (with Fiat) about 150,000 to 175,000 Ford, because of brand and product, is the big winner gaining about 50,000 to 100,000 units Hyundai, because of its value position, also does well long term

27 Chrysler Bankruptcy Update The Government has pushed Chrysler into bankruptcy and it seems to be proceeding in line with the Administration s plan quickly and smoothly Fiat got what it wanted without committing any cash up front The Auto Team championed Fiat because of their expertise in small cars and global footprint, but volumes are still expected to be fairly low in the United States Fiat also gains access to Chrysler s world class automatic transmissions, which will help Fiat meet U.S. regulations Chrysler will begin selling Fiat platform subcompact, compact, and midsize cars in Model Year 2012 but only the 500 will carry the Fiat name in the United States Chrysler will begin building vehicles for Fiat under the Alfa Romeo and Fiat brands in late calendar year 2011 Chrysler can close dealerships more easily than GM because of Chapter 11 and is consolidating dealerships with the Genesis program Alfa Romeo and Fiat (with the 500) will gain access to Chrysler dealerships Chrysler must find a way to survive post-bankruptcy and pre-economic recovery and new pressures regarding CAFE not an easy task

28 The New Chrysler Approximately 300,000 units will be based on Fiat products starting in 2013 Some model and brand consolidation is possible 1,600 1,400 1,200 Thousands 1, V2015 CHRYSLER DODGE JEEP

29 General Motors Bankruptcy Update GM s June 1 bankruptcy filing will utilize Section 363 to split the good GM from the bad GM assets and allow the company to emerge from court in days, longer than Chrysler but hopefully quickly The UAW has agreed to concessions and those agreements will most likely be honored in bankruptcy court. While 54% of the bondholders agreed to a deal, the rest will be left up to the judge to decide what they get The 10% equity will be applied immediately while another 7.5% stake will be applied when the market capitalization reaches $15 billion. The rest of the 7.5% will be applied when the market cap reaches $30 billion Nonetheless GM s restructuring will be much more difficult than Chrysler s due to GM s size, complexity, and other details The Administration will have to ensure a brief and smooth bankruptcy to avoid damaging the economy The longer bankruptcy drags on, the greater the loss of sales volume and market share for GM and the greater the damage to GM s brands Brand and dealer consolidation would be simplified in bankruptcy In a bankruptcy, product, marketing, and most long-term decisions will become the purview of the court and the government

30 General Motors Bankruptcy Update While we are confident that GM will emerge from bankruptcy, we do see some red flags to their full recovery In particular, GM's forecasts for market volume, GM market share and the resulting GM factory unit sales are somewhat higher than our own forecasts GM is estimating an outbound market share of % in its documents. IHS GI has a GM market share stabilizing at % from This share difference coupled with GM's more optimistic forecast for total market volume results in GM's forecast for GM factory unit sales being higher than our FUS forecast by 5.4%-20.4% GM PLAN: MARKET VOLUME: SHARE: 22.1% 19.5% 18.9% 18.6% 18.4% 18.5% 18.5% Factory unit sales (FUS): IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT PLAN: MARKET VOLUME: SHARE: 17.9% 17.3% 17.2% 17.4% 17.3% 17.2% Factory unit sales (FUS): GM FUS over IHS GI FUS 20.00% 20.40% 11.40% 8.50% 5.60% 5.40%

31 The New General Motors Volume is lost under bankruptcy as GM eliminates brands and consumers shift away from GM products Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC continue Vibe (Pontiac) continues at Nummi, sold under other brand name 3,000 2,500 2,000 Thousands 1,500 1, V2015 CHEVROLET CADILLAC GMC BUICK HUMMER PONTIAC SAAB SATURN

32 General Motors Bankruptcy Update Like all domestic auto companies, GM faces a perception issue. Many American consumers are not yet willing to accept that GM, Ford and Chrysler can build vehicles with the same appeal and quality as their Asian counterparts and taking GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy will only worsen the situation One of the risks to the forecast is that in order for GM to stabilize market share, we have to assume that GM can attract enough younger (Gen Y) buyers to replace the Domestic-loyal buyers of older generations (Depression Gen, Quiet Gen) that are ageing out of the market This allows GM to halt its market share decline at around % If GM can't accomplish this, their market share will continue to slide, further weakening their recovery plan GM is banking on exciting upcoming products like the Chevy Volt, Chevy Cruze, and the newly available Chevy Camaro to help with perception issues but serious concerns remain The sales of Hummer to Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co., of Sichuan province helps GM shed its gas guzzler image, even though many Hummers get better or similar fuel economy to Land Rover s lineup

33 General Motors Bankruptcy Update GM is reporting that with the plant closures and realignments announced on June 1, it will be at "full capacity utilization of its assembly operations in 2011" (Operational Changes taken from GM S-4 filing April 27, 2009). But based on our lower forecast for GM market share, IHS Global Insight forecast is for a GM capacity utilization rate of 74% in 2011 based on a U.S. capacity of 2.56 million units and a production level of 1.7 million We have not added a subcompact car to a U.S. plant, which GM pegged at 160,000 units annually, but gave no timeframe. If GM goes ahead with it, we believe it is likely to be a Gamma product built at the Orion plant beginning in 2011 or 2012 Overall, we are confident that GM will be able to emerge from bankruptcy in a relatively short amount of time and become a viable company again But concerns remain about its ability to stabilize market share and the time line of the recovery, especially in the short term We have a much more conservative forecast for GM's volumes, which of course directly impacts GM's performance, particularly related to capacity utilization and potential operational profitability so concerns remain

34 General Motors Bankruptcy Update Forecast GM North American Production Capacity Utilization Production (000) Country CAN MEX USA 2,335 1,096 1,468 1,705 1,908 1,990 1,955 TOTAL 3,417 1,713 2,327 2,657 3,068 3,261 3,378 Straight-Time Capacity (000) CANADA MEXICO USA TOTAL Capacity Utilization (%) CANADA MEXICO USA TOTAL Note: Data includes production and capacity for GM by its joint ventures Straight time assumes two shifts daily at each assembly plant

35 Bankruptcy Lowers Market Share at GM and Chrysler 25% CB = CURRENT BASE WITH GM & CHRYSLER BANKRUPTCY 20% 15% OB = OLD BASE WITHOUT GM & CHRYSLER BANKRUPTCY 10% 5% GM (CB) GM (OB) FORD (CB) FORD (OB) CHRYSLER (CB) CHRYLSER (OB) TOYOTA (CB) TOYOTA (OB)

36 Bankruptcy Lowers Market Share at GM and Chrysler 14% 13% CB = CURRENT BASE WITH GM & CHRYSLER BANKRUPTCY 12% 11% 10% 9% OB = OLD BASE WITHOUT GM & CHRYSLER BANKRUPTCY 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% HONDA (CB) HONDA (OB) NISSAN (CB) NISSAN (CB) HYUNDAI (CB) HYUNDAI (OB)

37 Implications of the New CAFE Proposal On May 19, the President announced new national fuel economy standards for the years that harmonize with California regulations, eliminating the possibility of multiple standards at the state level until after 2016 By 2016, OEMs must achieve a CAFE of 35.5 MPG (39 MPG for cars and 30 MPG for light trucks under 10,000 GVW) and cap carbon dioxide tailpipe emissions at 250 g/mile Widespread political backing for the measures has been accompanied by support from the domestic auto industry, which has praised the new single, strong national framework, even if it does accelerate the planned changes by nearly a full model cycle The technology exists to make these regulations work, but the big challenge will be ramping up production fast enough to achieve compliance Look for increased penetration of all types of hybrid-electric powertrains with particular emphasis on mild hybrids that use a downsized direct injection turbocharged gas engine Diesel penetration is not forecast to increase significantly due to the projected volatility of diesel fuel prices Segment mix is not forecast to change significantly as powertrain technology will allow consumers to stay within or near their desired segments

38 Implications of the New CAFE Proposal (cont d) Credits for flexible-fuel vehicles will phase out in 2015 unless automakers can demonstrate consumers actually are using an alternative fuel in their vehicles Automakers that exceed the standards would get credits they could sell to automakers that don't Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids would be worth super credits that would make them count as more than one vehicle when automakers figure out yearly fleet average fuel economy and emissions numbers

39 Thank You! George M. Magliano Director, North America

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