Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments. Ioannis Tsapakis, Ph.D. Cesar Quiroga, Ph.D., P.E.

Transcription

1 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments Ioannis Tsapakis, Ph.D. Cesar Quiroga, Ph.D., P.E.

2 Research Project Completed in 2011 Impacts Pavement impacts Reduction in pavement life Roadside impacts Operational and safety impacts Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 2

3 IH 35W East Frontage Road Pavement shoving, loss of surface Pavement shoving, loss of surface Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 3

4 Roadside Impacts Drainage problem at driveway Mud tracking Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 4

5 Statewide Pavement Impact $1 billion per year $2 billion per year including local roads No main highways or bridges included Cost to industry (with no pavement repair): $ billion per year Equipment damage Lower operating speeds Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 5

6 Current Initiatives Pavement design and maintenance Energy development traffic characterization Wheel and equivalent single-axle loads County maps Oil/gas developments and transportation infrastructure correlations Traffic safety and hazmat surveys Practices in other states Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 6

7 ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC CHARACTERIZATION Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 7

8 Energy Traffic Characterization Number of truckloads is a function of: Well type and depth Geology Drilling technology Water needs for fracking: 2 6 million gallons Vertical vs. horizontal wells (Marcellus Shale) Vertical well fracking: 20,000 80,000 gallons Horizontal well fracking: 2 9 million gallons Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 8

9 Activity Energy Traffic Characterization No. of Trucks (only trucks) No. of Trucks (trucks and pipelines) Pad construction Drilling rig Drilling pipe, casing, fluid, materials Hydraulic fracturing equipment Hydraulic fracturing water Hydraulic fracturing sand Flowback water removal Well completion Total Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 9

10 Relative Pavement Impact Total Weight (lb) Weight Ratio EALF Ratio Weight Ratio EALF Ratio Weight Ratio EALF Ratio WRT 4,000 lb WRT 35,000 lb WRT 80,000 lb 4, , , , , , , , , , , Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 10

11 OS/OW Permits FY 2013 Industry Type No. of Permits All Industry Types 519,206 Oil and Gas Industry Related 224,500 % Permits Related to Oil & Gas Industry 43% Oil & Gas Industry Permits No. Permits No. Trips Annual permits 16,720 4,180,031 Single trip permits 180, ,002 Other permits 27,778 27,778 Total 224,500 4,387,810 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 11

12 OIL/GAS DEVELOPMENTS AND TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE CORRELATIONS Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 12

13 Changes from to Region Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells Diff Diff Diff. Barnett Shale 8,663 4,490-48% 1, % 10,145 5,188-49% Eagle Ford Shale 854 8, % 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12, % Permian Basin 951 3, % 14,381 21,396 49% 15,332 24,626 61% Other 1,761 3,356 91% 18,706 9,653-48% 20,467 13,009-36% Grand Total 12,229 19,962 63% 39,164 35,436-10% 51,393 55,398 8% Karnes County 28 1, % % 66 1, % Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 13

14 County Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells Diff Diff Diff. Atascosa % % % Bastrop % % % Changes from to Bee % % % Brazos % % % Burleson % % % Caldwell % % % DeWitt % % % Dimmit 67 1, % % % Duval % % % Fayette Region % % % Frio % % % Goliad 0 0 0% % % Gonzales % % % Grimes % % % Guadalupe % % % Jim Wells 0 0 0% % % Karnes 28 1, % % % La Salle 34 1, % % % Lavaca % % % Lee % % % Live Oak % % % Maverick % % % McMullen % % % Robertson % % % Victoria % % % Washington % % % Webb 105 1, % % % Wilson % % % Zavala Eagle 373% Ford Shale 17 Energy Developments 27 59% % 14 Total 854 8, % 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12, % Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells Diff Diff Diff. Barnett Shale 8,663 4,490-48% 1, % 10,145 5,188-49% Eagle Ford Shale 854 8, % 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12, % Permian Basin 951 3, % 14,381 21,396 49% 15,332 24,626 61% Other 1,761 3,356 91% 18,706 9,653-48% 20,467 13,009-36% Grand Total 12,229 19,962 63% 39,164 35,436-10% 51,393 55,398 8% Karnes County 28 1, % % 66 1, %

15 Changes from to Region Oil Production (BBL) Gas Production (MCF) Diff Diff. Barnett Shale 21,249,731 34,576,341 63% 5,405,555,430 7,845,267,680 45% Eagle Ford Shale 76,979, ,221, % 3,550,292,226 4,706,967,631 33% Permian Basin 997,383,412 1,268,827,453 27% 2,942,718,794 1,981,010,535-33% Other 296,920, ,041,944 13% 13,884,408,311 12,416,857,011-11% Grand Total 1,392,533,005 2,178,667,549 56% 25,782,974,761 26,950,102,857 5% Karnes County 1,124, ,204, % 34,352, ,427, % Region Liquids (BBL) Disposed into the Ground Diff. Barnett Shale 697,396,323 1,000,917,551 44% Eagle Ford Shale 1,949,556,636 2,171,974,843 11% Permian Basin 1,184,755,125 1,752,394,208 48% Other 3,088,383,567 2,873,346,893-7% Grand Total 6,920,091,651 7,798,633,495 13% Karnes County 10,493,457 46,233, % Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 15

16 Changes from to Region Below-Good Distress Scores Below-Good Ride Scores Below-Good Cond. Scores Diff Diff Diff. Barnett Shale 15.1% 12.1% -3.0% 23.1% 22.1% -1.0% 15.9% 12.8% -3.1% Eagle Ford Shale 17.2% 19.2% 1.9% 36.5% 34.1% -2.4% 16.5% 17.7% 1.3% Permian Basin 8.8% 9.1% 0.2% 15.0% 17.1% 2.1% 7.4% 7.6% 0.2% Other 14.3% 14.4% 0.1% 24.6% 23.1% -1.5% 13.8% 13.2% -0.6% Grand Total 14.0% 14.2% 0.2% 24.6% 23.6% -1.1% 13.5% 13.0% -0.4% Karnes County 12.8% 34.2% 21.4% 55.8% 54.8% -1.1% 13.3% 34.9% 21.6% Region Total Maintenance Expenditures Maintenance Expend. per Lane-Mile Diff Diff. Barnett Shale $ 129,529,342 $ 195,129,989 51% $ 10,539 $ 15,877 51% Eagle Ford Shale $ 174,220,728 $ 363,893, % $ 7,133 $ 14, % Permian Basin $ 60,366,852 $ 134,290, % $ 2,701 $ 6, % Other $ 1,015,961,891 $ 1,570,940,664 55% $ 6,625 $ 10,244 55% Grand Total $ 1,380,078,812 $ 2,264,254,676 64% $ 6,497 $ 10,660 64% Karnes County $ 4,568,045 $ 22,958, % $ 7,980 $ 40, % Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 16

17 OIL/GAS DEVELOPMENTS AND TRAFFIC SAFETY CORRELATIONS Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 17

18 All Crashes 60,000 Number of Crashes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 18

19 Rural Crashes 10,000 Number of Rural Crashes 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 19

20 CMV Crashes Number of CMV Crashes 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 20

21 Rural CMV Crashes Number of Rural CMV Crashes 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 21

22 All Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)

23 Rural Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)

24 CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)

25 Rural CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)

26 All Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)

27 Rural Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)

28 CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)

29 Rural CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)

30 Changes from to Region Fatal, Incap., Non-Incap., Poss. Injury, No-Injury, Unknown All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -10% -25% -12% -34% Eagle Ford Shale 1% 4% 32% 61% Permian Basin -4% 11% 33% 52% Other -7% -1% -14% -9% Grand Total -7% -2% -9% -1% Region Fatal, Incapacitating, Non-Incapacitating All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -3% -22% -13% -26% Eagle Ford Shale 6% 1% 50% 77% Permian Basin 4% 18% 51% 57% Other -1% -6% -6% -5% Grand Total -1% -5% 0% 7% Region Fatal All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -14% -29% -25% -37% Eagle Ford Shale 6% 10% 58% 76% Permian Basin 22% 20% 94% 88% Other -5% -8% -1% 3% Grand Total -4% -6% 7% 14% 30

31 Correlations Region Crash Type Barnett Shale Eagle Ford Shale Permian Basin New Horizontal Wells New Vertical Wells All Rural CMV Rural & CMV All Rural CMV Rural & CMV All Rural CMV Rural & CMV

32 32

33 Economic and Comprehensive Cost Economic costs: Death: $1,500,000 Incapacitating injury: $74,900 Non-incapacitating injury: $24,000 Possible injury: $13,600 Comprehensive costs: Death: $4,628,000 Incapacitating injury: $235,400 Non-incapacitating injury: $60,000 Possible injury: $28,600 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 33

34 Economic and Comprehensive Cost Region Economic Cost Comprehensive Cost Diff Diff. Barnett Shale $ 211,795,179 $ 138,404,870-35% $ 640,098,771 $ 417,982,017-35% Eagle Ford Shale $ 268,959,920 $ 407,742,394 52% $ 809,729,658 $ 1,228,722,169 52% Permian Basin $ 171,025,104 $ 347,503, % $ 513,260,764 $ 1,051,857, % Other $ 1,614,666,206 $ 1,567,187,786-3% $ 4,827,962,078 $ 4,701,875,857-3% Grand Total $ 2,266,446,409 $ 2,460,838,632 9% $ 6,791,051,271 $ 7,400,437,680 9%

35 Changes from to Change in # of KAB Rural CMV Crashes Change in # of New Horizontal Wells 35

36 Thank You! Additional information: Cesar Quiroga: Phone: Ioannis Tsapakis: Phone: Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 36