Market Congestion Planning Study (South)- Robustness Analysis. Economic Planning Users Group Meeting August 11 th, 2017

Transcription

1 Market Congestion Planning Study (South)- Robustness Analysis Economic Planning Users Group Meeting August 11 th, 2017

2 Key Takeaways The benefit calculations were updated due to a flowgate rating correction (all scenarios/futures) Chisholm Road to Sabine 230 kv Three projects in the WOTAB/Western focus area are still considered for potential recommendation to Board of Directors Alternate configurations of the WOTAB Economic Project have been evaluated for economic and reliability impact 1 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

3 MTEP17 MCPS Scope & Study Progress Nov - Dec 2016 Jan - May 2017 June - Aug 2017 Flowgate Identification Project Candidate Identification Robustness Testing Review Historical Congestion Transmission Development Robustness Analysis Congestion Analysis Identify Top Congested Flowgates Screening Analysis Present Value (PV) Analysis Establish Project Candidate(s) Reliability Analysis MISO Scoping Level Cost Estimation Best Fit Solution(s) 2 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

4 WOTAB Economic Project Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Description of Project Alternative Discussed at the July EPUG New Hartburg Sabine 500 kv transmission line New Sabine 500/230 kv transformer Expand Hartburg and Sabine substations Tap the existing Sabine McFadden and Sabine Nederland 230 kv transmission lines into a new substation New Hartburg New substation 500 kv transmission line New substation 500/230 kv transformer New Hartburg Sabine 230 kv transmission line New Hartburg 500/230 kv transformer Expand Hartburg and Sabine 230 kv substations Meets MEP voltage and cost criteria? Yes Yes No 3 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

5 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 1 Project Description New 500kV line from Hartburg to Sabine Expand existing Sabine and Hartburg substations New 500/230kV 1200 MVA Transformer at Sabine substation Location Texas In-Service Year: 2023 Texas Louisiana MISO Scoping Level Cost Estimate (Million$-2017): 135 Note: This image is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent line routing Map represents the transmission system with voltages 230kV and above, in MISO 4 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

6 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 1 Full outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) , Partial outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 5 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

7 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2 Project Description New 230kV substation tapping the existing Sabine McFadden and Sabine Nederland 230 kv transmission lines New 500kV line from Hartburg to New Substation New 500/230kV 1200 MVA transformer at the new substation Location Texas Texas Louisiana Note: This image is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent line routing Map represents the transmission system with voltages 230kV and above, in MISO In-Service Year: 2023 MISO Scoping Level Cost Estimate (Million$-2017): Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

8 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2 Full outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) , Partial outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 7 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

9 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 3 Project Description New 230kV line from Hartburg to Sabine New 500/230kV 800 MVA transformer at Hartburg substation Location Texas In-Service Year: 2023 Texas Louisiana MISO Scoping Level Cost Estimate (Million$-2017): 99.4 Note: This image is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent line routing Map represents the transmission system with voltages 230kV and above, in MISO 8 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

10 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 3 Full outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) , Partial outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 9 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

11 Alternatives 2 & 3 produce a Benefit-to-Cost ratio greater than 1.25 in all generation siting scenarios Alternati ve # 1 Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) , , , * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 10 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

12 Alternative 2 (500kV) fully relieves the congestion in Sabine/Port Arthur area and provides higher VLR makewhole payment relief compared to Alternative 3 (230kV) Alternative 2 (500kV) Alternative 3 (230kV) Congestion Relief Inland Orange McLewis Chisholm Sabine 230kV (100% Congestion Relief) Marshall Mossville 138kV (98% Congestion Relief) Inland Orange McLewis Chisholm Sabine 230kV (98% Congestion Relief) Marshall Mossville 138kV (80% Congestion Relief) Voltage & Local Reliability (VLR) Make whole payment (MWP) reduction in WOTAB (Nominal - $) $ Million $ Million $ Million $ Million $ Million $ Million 11 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

13 Sam Rayburn to Fork Creek to Doucette 138 kv Network Upgrade Project Description Replace 26 transmission structures on the Sam Rayburn to Fort Creek to Turkey Creek to Doucette 138kV transmission line Rating increases to 137MVA from 112MVA Location Texas In-Service Year: 2020 Texas MISO Planning Level Cost Estimate (Million$-2017): 2.8 Note: This image is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent line routing Map represents the transmission system with voltages 100kV and above, in MISO 12 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

14 Sam Rayburn to Fork Creek to Doucette 138 kv Network Upgrade is a robust transmission solution under all scenarios evaluated Full outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) Partial outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 13 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

15 Substation Equipment Upgrade at Carlyss Louisiana Project Description Replace two air break switches (17549 and 17551) at Carlyss 138 kv to a minimum of 1600 A The 138 kv bus and the line bay bus at Carlyss (138 kv autotransformer line bay) will also be upgraded to at least 1600 A Rating on Carlyss 230/138kV transformer increases to 300MVA from 243MVA Location Louisiana In-Service Year: 2020 Note: This image is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent line routing Map represents the transmission system with voltages 100kV and above, in MISO MISO Planning Level Cost Estimate (Million$- 2017): Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

16 Substation Equipment Upgrade at Carlyss is a robust project under all scenarios evaluated Full outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) (9.05) Partial outage contingency of the future load pocket CCGT units for VLR commitments: Generation Scenario Benefit to Cost Ratios EF* PR* AAT* Weighted* 20-yr Present Value Benefit ($M) Emergency Energy Contribution to Project Benefits (%) 1 (Base) (7.98) (1.92) * Note: MTEP17 Futures and associated weights are included in the appendix 15 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

17 Cost Allocation for WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2

18 Market Efficiency Project (MEP) - Cost Allocation Methodology Based on Attachment FF-6 of MISO Tariff During the 5 year cost allocation transition period, costs of Market Efficiency Projects located solely in MISO South are allocated only to MISO South Overview of Market Efficiency Project Cost Allocation Methodology 20% of the project costs are allocated to each pricing zone based on load ratio share 80% of the project costs are allocated to pricing zones based on the distribution of APC savings to the Local Resource Zones (LRZ) with positive APC savings (see table and map on next slide) If the total future weighted APC saving for an LRZ is negative then the LRZ is not allocated a portion of the 80% 17 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

19 APC Benefit Distribution for WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2 LRZ State Weighted Present Value of APC Benefit ($M) Local Resource Zone Share of APC Benefits 8 8 AR (1.9) 0% 10 9 LA, TX % 10 MS (2.4) 0% 9 18 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

20 WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2: Cost Allocation Pricing Zone Pricing Zone - Abbr. Local Resource Zone (LRZ) Local Resource Zone Distribution of Benefits [1] [2] [3] Pricing Zone Load Ratio Share of Local Resource Zone See Note 1 MISO South Load Ratio Share [5] 20% Postage Stamp Component [6] = 20% * [5] 80% Local Resource Zone Component [7] = 80% * [3] * [4] Total Pricing Zone Cost Allocation (%) [8] = [6] + [7] Entergy Arkansas EATO % % 20.50% 4.10% 0.00% 4.10% Entergy Louisiana ELTO % 63.71% 41.49% 8.30% 50.96% 59.26% Entergy Mississippi EMTO % 81.97% 11.78% 2.36% 0.00% 2.36% Entergy Texas ETTO % 19.24% 12.53% 2.51% 15.39% 17.89% Cleco Power CLEC % 9.37% 6.10% 1.22% 7.49% 8.71% Cooperative Energy SME % 18.03% 2.59% 0.52% 0.00% 0.52% [4] Lafayette City- Parish Consolidated Entergy New Orleans LAFA % 2.12% 1.38% 0.28% 1.70% 1.97% ENTO % 5.57% 3.63% 0.73% 4.46% 5.18% Note 1: Calculated by dividing the load of applicable pricing zone by the total load of applicable Local Resource Zone 19 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

21 Appendix

22 MTEP17 Futures and Future Weights for MCPS South study MTEP17 Future Future Weight (%) Existing Fleet (EF) 40 Policy Regulation (PR) 40 Accelerated Alternative Technologies (AAT) 20 Revised future weights based on the discussion at the March 2017 Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) meeting 1 were utilized for MCPS South Study 1 MTEP17 Weighting discussion at the March 15 th, 2017 PAC: m%2002a%20mtep17%20weighting.pdf 21 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

23 Load pocket generation siting scenarios were studied for robustness analysis Scenario 1 Base Futures Scenario 2 RRF Generation sited outside South load pocket(s) Scenario 3 RRF Generation sited at Entergy s RFP proposals Transmission Network upgrades identified from MISO DPP SIS Phase 1 Study were included RRF Regional Resource Forecast; DPP Definitive Planning Phase of MISO generation queue; RFP Request for Proposals; SIS System Impact Study 22 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

24 Generation Siting Scenario 2 - Siting Changes in the MISO South Load Pockets for the AAT Future Powerbase Name Scenario 1 Scenario 2 RRF MISO CC:001 Little Gypsy 230 kv Wrightsville 500 kv RRF MISO CC:006 Nelson 230/138 kv Lake Catherine 115 kv RRF MISO CC:060 Nine Mile 230 kv Holland Bottoms 500 kv RRF MISO CT:007 Sabine 138 kv Hot Springs 115 kv RRF MISO CT:010 Hartburg 230kV Hinds 230 kv RRF MISO CT:011 Hartburg 230kV Hinds 230 kv RRF MISO CT:016 Nine Mile 115 kv Big Cajun 230 kv Hartburg RRF MISO CT:090 Sabine 230 kv Couch 115 kv 23 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

25 Generation Siting Scenario 2 - Siting Changes in the MISO South Load Pockets for the EF Future Powerbase Name Scenario 1 Scenario 2 RRF MISO CC:001 Little Gypsy 230 kv Wrightsville 500 kv RRF MISO CT:007 Sabine 138 kv Baxter Wilson 115 kv RRF MISO CT:023 Sabine 138 kv Baxter Wilson 115 kv RRF MISO CT:048 Nine Mile 230 kv Rodemacher 230 kv RRF MISO CT:053 Sabine 230 kv Gerald Andrus 230 kv RRF MISO CT:058 Nine Mile 230 kv Gerald Andrus 230 kv RRF MISO CT:066 Nelson 138 kv Baxter Wilson 115kV RRF MISO CT:067 Nelson 138 kv Franklin 500 kv RRF MISO CT:090 Sabine 230 kv Rodemacher 230 kv 24 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

26 Generation Siting Scenario 2 - Siting Changes in the MISO South Load Pockets for the PR Future Powerbase Name Scenario 1 Scenario 2 RRF MISO CC:001 Little Gypsy 230 kv Franklin 500 kv RRF MISO CC:006 Nelson 230/138 kv Holland Bottoms 500 kv RRF MISO CC:039 Sabine 138 kv Sterlington 500 kv RRF MISO CT:014 Nine Mile 230 kv Bailey 115 kv RRF MISO CT:015 Nine Mile 230 kv McClellan 115 kv RRF MISO CT:016 Nine Mile 115 kv Teche 138 kv RRF MISO CT:023 Sabine 138 kv Teche 138 kv RRF MISO CT:053 Sabine 230 kv Rex Brown 115 kv 25 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

27 Generation Siting Scenario 3 Siting changes in MISO South load pockets Siting Location Capacity (MW) In-Service Year AAT EF PR Little Gypsy 230 kv 1, Nelson 230/138 kv 1, Lewis Creek 230/138 kv 1, Michoud 115 kv Generation siting in the load pocket is replaced with Entergy RFP generation in Scenario 3 Total Generation inside the load pocket is similar to Generation Siting Scenario 1 Transmission Network upgrades identified from MISO DPP SIS Phase 1 Study were included RRF Regional Resource Forecast; DPP Definitive Planning Phase of MISO generation queue; RFP Request for Proposals; SIS System Impact Study 26 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

28 Make Whole Payment reduction for WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 1 Generation Scenario (Partial Outage) 3 (Partial Outage) Load Pocket EF PR AAT EF PR AAT EF PR AAT WOTAB + Western (1.2) 6.8 WOTAB (0.8) 6.8 WOTAB + Western (0.3) WOTAB (0.4) WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB (0.8) 2.2 WOTAB + Western WOTAB Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

29 Make Whole Payment reduction for WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 2 Generation Scenario (Partial Outage) 3 (Partial Outage) Load Pocket EF PR AAT EF PR AAT EF PR AAT WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB (0.1) 1.1 WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

30 Make Whole Payment reduction for WOTAB Economic Project Alternative 3 Generation Scenario (Partial Outage) 3 (Partial Outage) Load Pocket EF PR AAT EF PR AAT EF PR AAT WOTAB + Western (0.2) WOTAB (0.2) WOTAB + Western (0.7) WOTAB (0.7) WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB WOTAB + Western WOTAB Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

31 Minimum Project Design Criteria Minimum project requirements for the Market Efficiency Projects (MEP) are specified in BPM-029 Some design requirements are solution specific and are determined through additional analysis 30 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017

32 Minimum Design Criteria Selection for WOTAB Economic Project 500kV Transmission Line Line Rating 3000A (Default Minimum Transmission Circuit Ampere Ratings) Sabine Substation 500/230kV Transformer Impedance: >7% Rating: 1200MVA (3-phase) 230kV Breaker Symmetrical Interruption Rating (ka) 63kA 31 Economic Planning User Group Meeting, August 11th 2017