Global Trends toward Cleaner Fuels and Fuel Efficient Vehicles
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1 Global Trends toward Cleaner Fuels and Fuel Efficient Vehicles Jane Akumu UN Environment Malawi, 11 December 2017
2 Impact of Transport Air Quality & Health Largest source of air pollution in cities, exceeding WHO standards and costing more than 5% GDP Climate Change Responsible for 23% global CO2 emissions & fastest growing sector in GHG emissions, 2.5% yearly until 2020
3 Why cleaner fuels and vehicles 7 million people killed in 2012 from air pollution; Small particulates (PM10 or PM2.5) estimated to cause over 3.7 million premature deaths each year worldwide; In 2012, diesel PM was officially classified as carcinogenic (WHO); The smaller part of PM is black carbon (BC), now believed the second most important climate pollutant; Diesel vehicles responsible for significant PM pollution in cities
4
5 4-Jan 10-Jan 16-Jan 22-Jan 28-Jan 3-Feb 9-Feb 15-Feb 21-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 11-Mar 17-Mar 23-Mar 29-Mar 4-Apr 10-Apr 16-Apr 22-Apr 28-Apr 4-May 10-Apr 16-May 22-May 28-May 3-Jun 9-Jun 15-Jun 21-Jun 27-Jun 3-Jul 9-Jul 15-Jul 21-Jul 27-Jul 2-Aug 8-Aug 14-Aug 20-Aug 26-Aug 1-Sep 7-Sep 13-Sep 19-Sep 25-Sep 1-Oct 7-Oct 13-Oct 19-Oct 25-Oct 31-Oct 6-Nov 12-Nov 18-Nov 24-Nov 30-Nov 6-Dec 12-Dec 18-Dec 24-Dec 30-Dec PM10 CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) FIG. PM10 CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) RECORDED AT OTHER ROADSIDE MONITORING LOCATIONS JANUARY - DEC EMBER EPA Guideline Level of 70µg/m 3 WHO Guideline Level of 50µg/m 3 DATE SHANGRI LA ACHIMOTA La T Junction
6 Historical High Growth Has Made Vehicles An Important Contributor To Local, Regional and Global Pollution Vehicle fleet to triple (from ~1 billion to ~3 billon) 90%+ of growth in non-oecd countries Very few non- OECD countries have policies Source: Mike Walsh
7 Vehicle Growth in Malawi
8 Vehicles Africa s Aging Vehicle Fleet 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Age Tanzania Nairobi
9 Systems Approach to Clean Fuels and Vehicles Systems approach links fuel quality to vehicles emission standards for max emission reduction benefits Countries need to develop long term roadmaps to reduce vehicle emissions, that include Inspection & Maintenance / testing programs
10 Progress in Lowering Sulphur in Diesel in Africa Nov 2017 Commitments 2017/2018
11 Stringent emission standards can reduce pollution by over 85% Diesel particulate filters are needed to meet Euro 5 standards for light-duty vehicles and Euro VI standards for heavy-duty vehicles. Filters require diesel with sulfur content less than 50ppm, and require 10ppm diesel for optimal performance. Cleaire Advanced Emission Controls LLC
12 CO2 Emissions from Transport
13 What is fuel economy? Vehicles use energy, and fuel economy measures energy per unit of vehicle travel. It is the RATE of energy use. Litres per 100km (Europe) Km per litre (Japan) Miles per gallon (United States) Fuel economy, fuel efficiency, fuel intensity are all fairly interchangeable terms. Also measured in CO2 emissions=co2 g/km
14 Source: Stuart Rayner, NAAMSA
15
16 Regional fuel economy trends Countries with FE policies in place show encouraging improvement rates Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates non-oecd improvement Source: IEA 2014
17 GFEI Country Engagement countries with ongoing projects new countries 2016/2017 Countries expressed interest 1 Chile 28Malaysia 63Panama 2 Ethiopia 29Bangladesh 64Iran 3 Indonesia 30Kazakhstan 65Angola 4 Kenya 31Mali 66Bhutan 5 Georgia 32Nigeria 67Burkina Faso 6 Ivory Coast 33Togo 68Burundi 7 Mauritius 34Tanzania 69Cambodia 8 Jamaica 35Rwanda 70Cameroon 9 Montenegro 36Bolivia 71Cape Verde 10 Macedonia 37Argentina 72D.R. Congo 11 Costa Rica 38Ecuador 73Eritrea 12 Vietnam 39Ukraine 74Fiji 13 Morocco 40Jordan 75Guinea 14 Bahrain 41Colombia 76Iran 15 Tunisia 42Djibouti 77Kyrgyzstan 16 Thailand 43Dominican Republic 78Laos 17 Peru 44Guatemala 79Lesotho 18 Russia 45Moldova 80Marshall Islands 19 Benin 46Pakistan 81Mongolia 20 Algeria 47Barbados 82Namibia 21 Uruguay 50St. Lucia 83Niger 22 Nepal 51Lebanon 84Papua New Guinea 23 Paraguay 52Zambia 85Senegal 24 Sri Lanka 53Ghana 86Sierra Leone 25 Philippines 54Malawi 87Solomon Islands 26 Uganda 55Zimbabwe 88South Africa 27 Egypt 56Honduras 89Tajikistan 57Nicaragua 90Turkmenistan 58El Salvador 91Turkey 59Botswana 92Armenia 60Mozambique 93Azerbaijan 61Myanmar 62Liberia 94Serbia 95Samoa 96Gambia 97Uzbekistan 98Bosnia-Herzegovina 99Albania
18 Summary of GFEI Implementation Data Collection & Analysis Information Campaigns GFEI Support Policy Making Efforts Outreach to Stakeholders
19 Data Collection o Baseline Setting o Analysis of Trend (2008, 2011, 2013, 2016) Overview of o Vehicle fleet o Vehicle regulations o Fiscal incentives o Fuel standards Policy Options National Consultations Regional Consultations The GFEI Process
20 Vehicle Data Categories Data to be collected is for all vehicles entering a country for the first time: o new vehicles manufactured in the country o new vehicles imported o second hand vehicles imported into the country o car that is already in-country, but re-registered because re-sold should not be counted Useful to keep separate track of these three categories of vehicles, as well as creating a combined average set of information
21 Minimum information required Vehicle make and model Model production year Year of first registration Fuel type (petrol or diesel) Engine size Domestically produced or imported New or second hand import Rated Fuel Economy per model and test cycle basis Number of sales by model
22 Estimating average fuel economy Look for the tested fuel economy number for the vehicle model If not available the fuel economy figures for a given make, model and year can usually be retrieved from the vehicle manufacturers GFEI partners are compiling a list of fuel economies into a common database for use by countries undertaking baselinesetting exercise For the sake of comparison, all drive cycle data obtained be converted to the NEDC cycle Conversion factors can be downloadable from ICCT website xlsx
23 Additional information and A Test Cycle Conversion Tool: A global comparison of Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards: South African Comparative Passenger Car Fuel Economy AND CO2 Emissions Data: U.S. Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends (1975 through 2010): U.S. Fuel Economy Policy: U.S. Fuel Economy Regulations: U.S. Auto Fuel Economy Database:
24 Final Data Make Model Condition Body Type Engine CC Fuel Type Model Year Registration Date L/100km CO2 BMW 316I Used S.WAGON 1596 Petrol CHEVROLET OPTRA Used SALOON 1799 Petrol CHEVROLET NULL Used S.WAGON 1799 Petrol NISSAN SUNNY Not Specified SALOON 1970 Diesel MITSUBISHI LANCER Used SALOON 1600 Diesel SKODA OCTAVIA Used SALOON 1800 Diesel SKODA OCTAVIA Used SALOON 1800 Diesel TOYOTA COROLLA New S.WAGON 1970 Diesel TOYOTA COROLLA New SALOON 2000 Diesel FORD RANGER New VAN 2500 Petrol HONDA CR-V NULL S.WAGON 1970 Petrol
25 Average fuel economy At the simplest level, taking a weighted average (by sales) of all new (including newly imported second hand) vehicles in the database will provide the average fuel economy of new vehicles sold in the country in the given year: In a similar way, average CO 2 intensity can be obtained through weighted average with the sales of each model:
26 Example of final data: Kenya Fuel Economy Year Average fuel consumption metric combined (L/100km) Average CO 2 emission (g/km) Grand Average Year of vehicle registration Fuel Type Diesel Petrol Grand Average Grand Average Year of vehicle New Used Grand Average Registration Grand Total
27 Fuel Economy Levels Global Average (l/100km) OECD Average Non-OECD Average Mauritius Average (l/100km) Uganda Average (l/100km) Algeria Average (l/100km) Kenya Average (l/100km)
28 Liters per 100 kilometers (L/100km) normalized to NEDC Test Cycle 14 Baseline Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and Trends for New LDVs Algeria Bahrain Chile 12 China Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire 10 Egypt Ethiopia EU 8 Georgia Indonesia 6 Japan Kenya Mauritius 4 Montenegro Peru Philippines 2 Sri Lanka Uganda Uruguay US 28 Source: UNEP, 2017 (unpublished).
29 Air Quality and Mobility Unit Economy Division United Nations Environment P.O. Box Nairobi Kenya Jane.Akumu@unep.org
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Cotton This Month. Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections
1629 K Street NW, Suite 702 Washington, DC 20006, USA Cotton This Month February 1, 2018 Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections India Mexico Pakistan United States 2017/18 production
World Tariff Profiles 0<1 2<3 3<4 4<6 6<8 8<10 10<15 15<20 20<
World Tariff Profiles Applied MFN tariffs 0
Cotton This Month. Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections
1629 K Street NW, Suite 702 Washington, DC 20006, USA Cotton This Month March 1, 2018 Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections Brazil China Turkey United States 2017/18: production
3rd Meter Gauge Group CEO s Conference. Brisbane. 10 May, rd Meter Gauge CEO's Conference in Brisbane - 10th May,
3rd Meter Gauge Group CEO s Conference Brisbane 10 May, 2004 1 UIC Members UIC Member 163Members 2 UIC Meter Gauge Group UIC Meter Gauge Group was established as a special group for meter gauge railways
Table 23 Production of minor oil products from refineries - by type Thousand metric tons
Table 23 Production of minor oil from refineries - by type Table Notes Data refer to production from refineries of refinery, ethane, naphtha, lubricants, bitumen, paraffin, petroleum, white spirit, and
Imports of seed for sowing by country Calendar year 2011 Source: ISF compilation based on official statistics and international seed trade reports
USA 157,432 15,562 464 173,458 523 318 67 908 Germany 195,159 5,913 520 201,592 595 97 22 714 France 125,701 4,389 277 130,367 522 150 11 683 Netherlands 140,899 12,253 796 153,948 250 330 48 628 Italy
Table 3A Early childhood care and education (ECCE): care
7 238 / ANNEX 2 Early childhood care and education (ECCE): care Education for All Global Monitoring Report Arab States Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Mauritania
Selected Energy Indicators for 2004
E E G Y D C A T O S Selected Energy ndicators for 2004 egion/ Popu- GDP GDP Energy et TPES Elec. CO 2 Country lation (PPP) Prod. mports Cons. (a) Emissions (b) (million) (billion (billion (Mtoe) (Mtoe)
Production of minor oil products from refineries - by type Thousand metric tons
Production of minor oil from refineries - by type Table 23 Table Notes Data refer to production from refineries of refinery, ethane, naphtha, lubricants, bitumen, paraffin, petroleum, white spirit, and
Table 1. Demographics and Standards of Living Across Countries Total Population Annual Annual # Under 5 GNP % under 5 s Net primary Total Maternal
Table 1. Demographics and Standards of Living Across Countries Total Population Annual Annual # Under 5 GNP % under 5 s Net primary Total Maternal Population under 18 # of births < age 5 deaths mortality
Table 33 Electricity supply and consumption Gigawatt-hours and kilowatt-hours per capita
Terawatt-hours Table 33 Table Notes is calculated as Production plus Imports minus Exports. EIOU and losses refers to energy industries own use of electricity, including for pumped storage, and losses.