Highspeed Rail -an international outlook

Transcription

1 Highspeed Rail -an international outlook Nordic Infrastructure Conference Helsingborg, 25 January 2018 Professor Otto Anker Nielsen head of Transport DTU

2 The high- and semihigh speed map Long-distance operators with trains running at: 200 km/h (old railway lines) km/h (new lines)

3 High Speed Networks (new lines) 2018 Europe and Japan started at the same time to build new dedicated lines In 2009 China and other Asian countries surpassed Europe In 2018 Asia got a network 3 times the size of Europe Europe still in construction phase next 10 years. Asia growing more UIC, 2017

4 High speed rail passenger traffic in Europe France Germany Italy Spain Others UIC databank

5 Many plans but construction in slow progress France and Spain still having the largest ongoing construction works Germany in construction with expensive projects Many countries in LONG planning phase

6 UK planning for the The HighSpeed 2 is a project worth 90 billion Thereby the largest rail project in Europe Phase one to Birmingham (construction started 2017 and in service by 2026) Phase 2 to Manchester and Leeds (2032)

7 High speed rail passenger traffic in Europe France is the unbeatable champ in passenger ridership of high speed 120 million pax per year Picture: a low-cost TGV on the new line to Rennes inaugurated in Paris Rennes 320 km in 1h25m Price down to 10 one way ( Ouigo ) Faster than domestic flights Cheaper than long distance buses

8 High speed rail passenger traffic in Asia Japan Korea Taiwan China UIC databank

9 High speed rail passenger traffic in Asia Japan holds the record as the best performing railway More than 1 million passengers per day The railway infrastructure considered as best in class Most lines built on bridges and in tunnels as a dedicated high speed rail system

10 China has set the top standard 3 million high-speed passengers per day The new fuxing train Shanghai-Beijing Top speed in service 350 km/h Line length km in 4:28 = 295 km/h (avg)

11 How far do we travel with high-speed trains In France and Spain average trip length > 450 km In Italy and Germany the trip length is km In Asia the average trip length is km Long distance point-to-point trips are important both in Asia and Europe But the inter-regional market are also important, i.e. regional hs-trains J. Doomernik, 2017.

12 Utilisation of network capacity Japan is best in class to get the most out of their HSR network comparing ridership with network length China and EU-average seem to be even However, Spain is not using their large rail network that intensely. UIC and J. Doomernik, 2017

13 Train versus air Trains are competitive when they deliver a fast and frequent service Train s market share can be described as a function of travel time With long travel times trains are loosing market share to air

14 High speed comfort! Flight trips are in general not as comfortable as travelling by high speed trains On a travel of 3 hours almost half the time waisted on getting in or out of airports, and in the plane seats are much smaller. It is troublesome to work The train ride offers more comfort getting from one city centre to another

15 Changes in travel times Many good examples of major improvements Very high speed = km/h (avg) High speed = km/h (avg) Semi high speed = km/h (avg)

16 Case: Paris Lyon Paris-Lyon (427 km) before after change Travel time 03:46 01:59-47% Passengers (millions per year) 12,500 22, %

17 Case: London Bruxelles Bruxelles-London (375 km) before after change Travel time 04:52 02:01-59% Passengers (millions per year) 1,154 3, %

18 Case: Madrid Sevilla Madrid-Sevilla (471 km) before after change Travel time 05:10 02:30-52% Passengers (millions per year) 1,311 3, %

19 Case: Amsterdam Paris Amsterdam-Paris (508 km) before after change Travel time 05:16 03:18-37% Passengers (millions per year) 0,676 1, %

20 Case: Berlin Frankfurt Frankfurt-Berlin (508 km) before after change Travel time 06:15 04:02-35% Passengers (millions per year) 6,570 9, %

21 Oslo Changing the Nordic rail map Stockholm Travel times could be halved in the main corridor! This is the case for Stockholm-Copenhagen and for Copenhagen-Hamburg, but no decision yet for Oslo-Copenhagen! Göteborg The Fehmarn Belt corridor is planned for mixed traffic and will open 2028: semi high speed passenger trains freight trains Copenhagen? Malmö In Denmark speed will be km/h In Germany speed will be km/h It will be possible to build further high speed sections in the Fehmarn corridor later on reducing travel times by further minutes. Hamburg Fehmarn Crossing Berlin

22 Copenhagen Hamburg from 5 to 2½ hours 36 trains The Fehmarn Belt tunnel opens 2028 and will change perception of distances 145 km/h 4:45 Travel times, speed and train frequency change! 77 km/h 2:30 8 trains Copenhagen-Hamburg will be integrated with trains to Berlin, Hannover and Bremen Average speed Travel time Departures Today 2028 Trains Sweden-Denmark will be integrated with South bound trains

23 South corridor Market position of train towards air services: Hamburg-Copenhagen: The market position of train services would be strengthen from medium to high/very high market share ( 85%) Berlin-Copenhagen Market share raise from very low to medium ( 45-50%)

24 North corridor Market position of train towards air services: Stockholm-Copenhagen: The market position of train services would be strengthen from lower level to medium-high ( 65% market share) New Link: New high speed lines could be supported by a new link across Öresund

25 Oslo Moving Germany to Scandinavia Stockholm When the Fehmarn Belt tunnel link and the hinterland infrastructure are upgraded/rebuilt then Germans perceive Copenhagen as a city just nearby due to reduction in the time distance Göteborg From a Danish perspective we would find that cities as Hamburg and Berlin are getting real close to our Kingdom Hamburg establishing itself at the South coast of Denmark! And Berlin placed in Lübeck!! Copenhagen Hamburg Berlin Hamburg Changing perspective city Berlin

26 Oslo Scandinavia closer to Central Europe Stockholm If we assume that - the Oslo-Göteborg link is built, - the new Södra Stambanan/South Line is built as proposed by the Sverigeförhandlingen, - the West Coast line is completed/upgraded, - a new Øresund link is established Oslo Göteborg Göteborg Stockholm Copenhagen then would the reduction in time distance move Norwegian and Swedish cities closer to Öresund, and thereby closer to the central European markets Hamburg Berlin Hamburg Changing perspective city Berlin

27 Improving services Today there is up to 3 passenger trains on the South Line, 1 Express and 2 stop-trains per hour. The operator SJ suggest 5 trains per hour as their forecast shows a development from in passengers from 8 to 20 million per year (2035). DTU Transport is currently involved in transport models for the national Transport Authorities regarding Øresund cross-border traffic Need of integrating Fehmarn prognosis and Scandinavian forecasts?

28 Possible increased volumes

29 Regional Economic Impacts