Rail Hydrogen Supply Infrastructure Synergy by Design? Herbert Wancura Graz June 27, 2017

Transcription

1 Rail Hydrogen Supply Infrastructure Synergy by Design? Herbert Wancura Graz June 27, 2017

2 Content Rail Hydrogen Demand Elements Diffusion simulation regional rail Other elements Node Analysis Example Austria Possible infrastructure design Attractivity for the rail operator Benefits for other transport modes Benefits for energy system 2

3 Section 1 Rail Hydrogen Demand 3

4 Market Fleet Data DMUs (DE, FR, IT) synergesis 12 IHC Presentation HW Rail Hydrogen Supply Synergies

5 Market Fleet Data Shunts + (Road) Switchers (DE, FR, IT) synergesis 12 IHC Presentation HW Rail Hydrogen Supply Synergies

6 Market Analysis The fleet of diesel powered rail in these three core continental Europe countries (with ± 50% electrification of rail infrastructure) is approx units. Age structures are quite different and have in part be influenced by market deregulation The diesel-hydraulic PT is clearly dominant (60-70%) Fleet additions in the last two decades were 250 units p.a., a renewal rate of 1.85% (Statistical avg. age => 54yrs) Average power of new rolling stock in the same period kW Higher power universal road switcher (also used for mainline duty) Longer, faster DMUs 6

7 Rail FCH-Hybrid Technology Diffusion Scenario DMU Germany -optimistic German DMU fleet approx units Multiphase Substitution max. Fleet size 150 Eht. (existing LoI with 60 units + one year 70% capacity util) From 2020: 2 Suppliers Annual capacity approx. 250 From 2023: 3 Suppliers Annual capacity approx. 350 This substitution represents roughly the Steam/Diesel replacement process for Germany (Grübler, 1990) 7

8 Rail FCH-Hybrid Technology Diffusion Other Segments Shunt/Switcher market much more fragmented No or very limited public authority intervention (deregulated freight rail market) Decisions are driven purely by economics Contains the oldest fleet sectors still in regular operation Game changers Local regulation for zero emissions in railyards and ports, e.g. Norway, possibly in Italy and Germany due to pollution problems (PM, NO2) Substitution technology competition makes forecasting very complex Last mile units, electric shunts w./ BATT +SC w./ Flash Charging, autonomous railcars. 8

9 Preliminary Considerations Rail Hydrogen Demand Rail hydrogen demand will be driven in the next two decades in these countries by regional demand drivers Regional passenger rail services due to concession terms Shunt and switcher operation due to local pollution issues (e.g. German Umweltzonen) The 2 nd sector is worse in terms of predictability Currently no homologated/certified solution available But its relative fuel consumption is also lower if we work on a more or less city + vicinity concept Aggregate hydrogen demand modelling can thus be simplified by using the regional rail diffusion path 9

10 Modelling Variables/Drivers Rail Hydrogen Demand EY/LBST Study (BMVI Germany, 2016) 1.5tH2pd, node Own simulations for Graz DMU consumption simulation results based on UK rail model corridor used by A. Hoffrichter (UoB Thesis, 2013) Node description Graz 4 Main regional diesel operated lines plus 2 trunk lines 3 sublines Total DMU sets Shunting/Switching operations with approx. 6 units Hydrogen Demand: th2pd Hydrogen average demand variable BH2OR Scenario 1.7tH2pd 10

11 Project Intermediate Results Demand Scenarios Demand Component Unit Basic Demand tpd ,1% Share tpd Public Transport Plus Bus Fleet No Rail Fleet No H2 Supply tpd Senario BH2OR Supply tpd Private Car Retail Plus Car Fleet No H2 Supply tpd Scenario BH2OR Supply tpd Total Demand f BH2OR tpd Assumptions: Current merchant/by-product H2 markets have solutions, growth via rail until 18% share (Germany freight modal share of rail) is reached Supply of hydrogen powered public transport fleets Bus 20 % of total (mainly if synergy with rail), Rail 70% of total H2 demand Private vehicle fleet demand via synergy volumes. 10% of car fleet H2 demand 11

12 Section 2 Example Austria 12

13 Example Austria Base Facts Dominant rail service company is ÖBB Group with its Rail Cargo Group For historic reasons owns hydroelectric power plants Capacity 300MW, 130MW expansion planned Renewable Share (2015) 92% Has its own high voltage 110kV, 16.7Hz L2 grid Annual electricity consumption 2,258 GWh (rail direct 1,835GWh) Diesel Consumption approx t per year Produces 310kt CO2 or approx. 85% of all CO2 Emissions of ÖBB Group Dominant Share 2,200 Busses doing 146 Mio km pa 13

14 ÖBB Infrastructure 110kV Grid 14

15 Source: Artist Boris Chomenko Strategy Market Technology Policy Synergy ÖBB Infrastructure Rail System 15

16 Synergy Potential CEN Routes - Rail H2 Nodes Source: Artist Boris Chomenko Source Original TEN-Map: bmvit Austria 16

17 Synergy Potential Description 6 (8) major H2 Nodes can cover most of the Rail H2 demand of ÖBB and partner railways on non-electrified lines Total daily capacity required (20)tH2 Node capacity approx. 2-3tH2pd (Input: 170 MWh/d, Total Austrian electrical energy 370 GWh, 20% of total Bahnstrom Expansion Strategy Regional Hydroelectrification of Bus Fleet Average daily distance of 184km enables electrification either as BEV or as FCHEV the latter with advantages in range, refuelling and extreme temperature conditions Core Nodes would require upgrade to a total capacity of max. 50tH2pd Represents a renewable energy sink for 1,022GWh of electricity saving approx. 310kt CO2 pa Side benefits: 224MWh thermal energy for district and rail facility heating => >100% of current purchase volume 17

18 Synergy Potential Other synergies to rail operator ÖBB (1) As the rail operations would require significant amounts of electrical power, it may be attractive to look at vertical integration. This would enable a long term fixing of energy supply prices Elimination of ICE will reduce service and operating fluid expenses (lube oil, AdBlue, etc.) Detailed knowledge on hydrogen economy will enable development of new businesses Energy logistics provision (RE Conversion P2Gas, storage, transport and supply) New business in decarburisation will assist in offsetting coal (or e.g the US sand) logistic losses 18

19 Synergy Potential Other synergies to rail operator ÖBB (2) ETCS and ERTMS have been designated as critical infrastructures in Germany This may make them liable to have uninterruptable power supply for 72hours This can be achieved much easier using hybrid back-up systems with battery for short term failures and HFC for longer periods Internal H2 supply logistics will help keeping cost under control 19

20 Synergy Potential Other transport modes Besides regional bus operations, urban bus fleets could join the stakeholders using the infrastructure Market opportunities, environmental benefits Limit SEVESO III (maximum on-site storage volume/mass) Community service vehicles Refuse collection, street cleaning Smart + clean city logistics (night service) Taxi and other fleets, like car sharing vehicles at train stations Individual (club) consumers 20

21 Synergy Potential Energy System Full rail + regional bus electrification via H2 will provide a 1TWh demand for RE Stable and highly predictable due to schedule based demand Expansion into other segments could double this Clear path for infrastructure development without having to wait for consumers buying fuel cell cars! First public accessible refueling facilities for road vehicles in Germany 1922 (OLEX, later BP)* Automotive vehicles in Germany in 1922 Total 167,484**, thereof 80,937 cars***, 43,711 trucks****, 38,048 motorcycles Sources: *) **) Fraunholz, Uwe; Motorphobia, Google Books, p.42 ***) Wirtschftszahlen zum Automobil/Deutschland ; ****) Vahrenkamp, Richard Die Lositische Revolution - Der Aufstieg der Logistik in der Massenkonsumgesellschaft, Campus Verlag, 2001, via Google Books, p

22 THANK YOU! 22

23 Contact synergesis consult.ing Herbert Wancura Puschweg 37 A-8053 Graz Austria Mobile: +43 (0)