Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future. Oliver Larkin & Andreas Buchta, Investor Relations Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft

Transcription

1 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future Oliver Larkin & Andreas Buchta, Investor Relations Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft Scandinavian Roadshow, November 2009

2 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future 1 Volkswagen Group: 9 months results 2 1 Opportunities for profitable growth 3 Volkswagen: secure and stable, ready for the future 4 Integrated automotive group combining Volkswagen and Porsche 2

3 Highlights January September 2009 Global crises continues to impact Group s business Volkswagen Group gains additional share of world s key markets Positive Operating Profit, down on prior year Automotive net cash flow up and net liquidity increased further Volkswagen and Porsche announced plan to form integrated automotive group 3

4 1) World car markets and VW Group deliveries to customers January to October 2009 vs World car market: -10.3% VW Group: +0.9% North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Car market Cars + LCV VW Group Car market VW Group Car market VW Group -24.4% South America -7.9% -3.0% Rest of World -2.7% -46.4% Asia Pacific -32.9% Car market VW Group Car market VW Group Car market VW Group 34.2% 12.5% -5.4% 0.3% -25.7% -16.2% 1) incl. Scania (since Q3 2009), incl. Trucks and Busses (until Feb 2009) 4

5 World car market vs. VW Group deliveries to customers January to October 2009 vs % Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Q3 Oct 10% 0% 1.4% 6.7% 2.7% 9.4% 1.8% 11.9% 0.1% 9.1% 5.1% 11.1% -3.7% -10% -10.9% -13.3% -20% -21.2% -30% World car market VW Group - deliveries to customers 1) 1) incl. Scania (Q1, Q2 and Q3), excl. Scania (month); incl. Trucks and Busses (until Feb 2009) 5

6 Volkswagen Group deliveries to customers by brands January to October 2009 vs units January - October % January - October ,298 5, , % 3, Volkswagen Group Volkswagen Passenger Cars % % -9.9% -30.4% -45.5% Audi Škoda Seat Bentley Commercial Vehicles Scania 1) incl. Scania (since Q3 2009), incl. Trucks and Busses (until Feb 2009)

7 Volkswagen Group Analysis by Business Line January September 2009 Sales Sales revenues Operating profit thousand vehicles/ million Volkswagen Passenger Cars 2,542 2,820 47,470 55, ,889 Audi ,689 25,799 1,172 2,059 Škoda ,167 6, SEAT ,358 4, Bentley Commercial Vehicles ,958 7, ) 283 Scania 2) ,537 1, VW China 3) Other ,252-25, ) 4) -790 Volkswagen Financial Services 8,853 8, Volkswagen Group 4,616 4,856 77,158 85,432 1,518 4,919 thereof Automotive Division 4,616 4,856 67,937 77,241 1,056 4,168 Financial Services Division 9,221 8, ) Including the proceeds from the sale of Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus Indústria e Comércio de Veículos Comerciais Ltda., Resende. 2) Vehicles & Services and Financial Services (consolidated from July 22, 2008). 3) The sales revenue and operating profit of the joint venture companies in China are not included in the figures for the Group. The Chinese companies are accounted for using the equity method and recorded an operating profit (proportionate) of 525 million ( 250 million). 4) Mainly intragroup items recognized in profit or loss, in particular from the elimination of intercompany profits; from Q3 2008, this fugure includes depreciation and amortization of identifiable assets as part of the purchase price allocation for Scania. 7

8 Volkswagen Group Analysis of Operating Profit billion Jan-Sep 2008 Volume/ Price/ Mix Currency Product cost Fixed cost/ Depreciation Net impact of the sale of Resende Scania Volkswagen Financial Services Jan-Sep

9 Volkswagen Group stock development worldwide 1) 000 units 1,400 1,200 1, ,190 1, Actual stock Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 1) Volkswagen Group + importers + dealers; without Scania; rounded 9

10 Automotive Division 1) Net Liquidity million 12,000 9,000 6,000 13,391 3,000 8,039 0 as of January 1, 2009 as of September 30, ) Including allocation of consolidation adjustments between Automotive and Financial Services divisions. 10

11 Outlook 2009 Volkswagen Group in 000 units / million ) Deliveries to customers 5,079 5,243 5,733 6,189 6,257 Sales revenue 88,963 93, , , ,808 Operating profit 2,037 2) 2,889 2) 4,383 2) 6,151 6,333 1) Restated; 2) before special items. Volkswagen will perform better than the market as a whole Volkswagen will be able to gain additional market share during the crisis Sales revenue in 2009 will be lower than in the previous year, in particular because of weaker volume sales Rising refinancing costs and mix deteriorations will serve as an additional drag on earnings Disciplined cost, investment management and optimization of its processes to counter the trend Core elements of the 18 plus strategy: Ecological relevance and return on our vehicle projects On the basis of business development in the first nine months, we continue to expect that our earnings will not reach the level of previous years. 11

12 Volkswagen New Polo Audi S5 Sportback Škoda Octavia Scout Škoda Superb Combi Volkswagen Multivan 12

13 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future 1 Volkswagen Group: 9 months results 2 1 Opportunities for profitable growth 3 Volkswagen: secure and stable, ready for the future 4 Integrated automotive group combining Volkswagen and Porsche 13

14 The automotive growth markets Passenger cars excluding light commercial vehicles (except NAR), 2008 and 2018 (in million) Total USA/Canada/ Mexico % % * Argentina and Brazil Source: Volkswagen, Polk, Global Insight South America* Europe % % India 1.2 China South Africa % % Russia % 2018 Japan % +3% Other markets %

15 Four clear messages from the market Global volume will be lower than previously forecasted Regional growth will vary even more greatly Segment shifts will become even more pronounced Higher demand for improved fuel economy and lower CO 2 emissions 15

16 The Volkswagen Group is proactively managing the crisis and will emerge strengthened from it Lay the foundations during boom Attractive product portfolio Strong brands Scale benefits Localisation Technology leadership Financial strength Proactively manage crisis Working capital optimisation (i.e. inventory) Capex review Maximise liquidity Cost discipline Flexible labour contracts Managing production capacity Emerge strengthened from the crisis 16

17 Product portfolio: clear growth opportunities Product portfolio Western Europe 2009 Estate MPV Van SUV Coupé Cabrio Hatchback Notchback Roadster E D C B A A0 A00 17

18 Making (more) money with small cars Polo V vs. Polo IV Material cost Productivity Volume Currency/ Raw materials Others Polo V Polo IV Polo IV Polo V 18

19 Modular matrix: lowering R&D, capex and unit costs MQB MLB 19

20 From internal combustion engine to electric vehicles Combustion Engine Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Range Extender Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 20

21 E-Up! 21

22 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future 1 Volkswagen: 9 months results 2 1 Opportunities for profitable growth 3 Volkswagen: secure and stable, ready for the future 4 Integrated automotive group combining Volkswagen and Porsche 22

23 Volkswagen Group well prepared for the future Individual customer requirements Innovative products and strong brands Modular tool kits Low emission powertrain technology Technology for sustainable Mobility Optimization of Working Capital Investment review Financial solidity Secure financial base through high net liquidity 23

24 The Volkswagen Group is proactively managing the crisis and will emerge strengthened from it Lay the foundations during boom Attractive product portfolio Strong brands Scale benefits Localisation Technology leadership Financial strength Proactively manage crisis Working capital optimisation (i.e. inventory) Capex Review Maximise liquidity Cost discipline Flexible labour contracts Managing production capacity Emerge strengthened from crisis Seize growth initiatives Maintain long term growth opportunities (i.e. USA, Russia) Investments in innovations Further extension of model portfolio 24

25 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future 1 Volkswagen Group: 9 months results 2 1 Opportunities for profitable growth 3 Volkswagen: secure and stable, ready for the future 4 Integrated automotive group combining Volkswagen and Porsche 25

26 Combining two successful companies Top 2 automotive OEM worldwide Highly attractive products with modular toolkit strategy as success factor Successful multi-brand management Leading position in established markets and high-growth regions through global production network and pro-active localisation Successfully managing the crisis and maintaining excellent financial stability Best-in-class financial services business Powerful and legendary Porsche brand Successful expansion of product portfolio with further growth potential Advanced internationalisation with strong position in Europe, North America and the Middle East and increasing potential in high-growth geographies Outstanding research and development capabilities Flexible business model with highest profitability in the industry Successful co-operation already today (Cayenne/Touareg, Panamera, technology sharing) 26

27 Additional value creation from synergies Key synergy areas Value creation Efficiencies Growth projects Purchasing Technology sharing R&D Sales and Distribution Administration Financial Services [Project 1] [Project 2] [Project 3]... 3 billion present value of synergies Around 700 million annual operating profit improvement (run-rate) more than 50% of long-term cost savings expected within 3 years more than 75% of long-term growth synergies expected within 5 years smooth integration and ramp-up phase 27

28 Porsche Holding Salzburg strong positioning in both wholesale and retail segment Revenues, in billion Business activities Mainly Western Europe Wholesale Sales/marketing for Volkswagen and Porsche Austria and Eastern Europe Original parts business After-sales service Only Austria and Eastern Europe 6.7 Retail Volkswagen and Porsche (domestic and abroad) 1.8 Financial Services Unit sales support in Austria and Eastern Europe Total Wholesale Retail Financial Services and other 28

29 Transaction roadmap value components Agreed Transaction Step Value Components Comments 1 Participation in Porsche AG (49.9% stake) in 2009 Total enterprise value Porsche AG 12.4 bn (100%); Equity Value thereof 49.9% approx. up to 3.9 bn Prior to this : Dissolution of options Agreement with Porsche s financing banks 2 Future acquisition of Porsche Holding Salzburg in 2011 Total enterprise value Porsche Holding Salzburg 3.55 bn Efficiencies to be quantified 3 Merger between Volkswagen AG and Porsche SE in 2011 implies transfer of remaining 50.1% of Porsche AG equity to VW Value of 50.1% stake implied by merger exchange ratio Porsche SE - Volkswagen Merger exchange ratio based on fair values at time of merger Fair values to be determined on equal and consistent basis 29

30 Integrated automotive group of Volkswagen and Porsche Valuable brand portfolio 10 brands working together enhances value and coherence of the brand portfolio in the integrated Group Strengthened leading position in the premium sector Further strengthening of innovation leadership Economies of scale: Revenue and volume growth opportunity Cost saving potential Long term stable shareholder structure Integration in Volkswagen s successful multibrand management model: High independence of Porsche and realisation of synergies Porsche remains Porsche 30

31 Preference share: the primary investment vehicle for economic exposure Ordinary shares Preference shares Now 1 Porsche Holding Salzburg (2.4%) Free float (20.1%) Qatar (6.8%) 7.0bn 2 Lower Saxony (20.0%) Total value, in billion Porsche SE (50.7%) Post Qatar stake increase Porsche Holding Salzburg Free float (2.4%) (9.9%) Porsche SE 3.5bn 2 (50.7%) Qatar (17.0%) Lower Saxony (20.0%) Dax exclusion for ordinary shares expected post exercise of Qatar options Ordinary shares will be vehicle for strategic investors only Preference shares the future primary investment vehicle for economic exposure Higher liquidity Index inclusion Share capital increase further enhances attractiveness of preference shares Now Post illustrative capital increase 1) By end of August ) Share price of per ordinary share and per preference share as of 21 October

32 Integrated automotive group of Volkswagen and Porsche Supervisory Board meetings of Volkswagen and Porsche agreed way forward Detailed work on contracts of implementation continues Volkswagen will take a 49.9 percent stake in Porsche AG by end of 2009 Shareholder meeting called for December 3rd to adopt resolution authorising issue of new preferred shares Merger with Porsche Automobil Holding SE in course of

33 Volkswagen: strong foundations primed for the future Oliver Larkin & Andreas Buchta, Investor Relations Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft Scandinavian Roadshow, November 2009

34 Volkswagen Group Headline Figures January September 2009 thousand vehicles/ million /- (%) Deliveries to customers 1) 000 units 3,266 4,789 4,797 3,086 Production 1) 000 units 3,393 4,361 4,963 3, Sales revenues million 56,500 77,158 85,432 54, Operating profit million 3,434 1,518 4,919 2, Automotive division 2) Cash flows from operating activities million 5,112 9,384 7,709 8, Cash flows from investing activities 3) million 2,822 4,280 7,827 2, Net cash flow million 2,290 5,104 5, x Net liquidity at September 30 million 15,103 13,391 11,767 11, ) Volume data including the vehicle production investments Shanghai-Volkswagen Automotive Company Ltd. and FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Company Ltd. All figures shown are rounded, so minor discrepancies may arise from addition of these amounts deliveries updated on the basis of statistical extrapolations. 2) Including allocation of consolidation adjustments between the Automotive and Financial Services divisions. 3) Excluding acquisition and disposal of equity investments: Q3 2,037 million ( 2,094 million), Q1-3 5,506 million ( 4,874 million). 34

35 Volkswagen Automotive Division Research and Development Costs January September 2008 January September 2009 million 5,000 4,000 3,000 1,354 1,502 1,140 1, % 31.0% 2,000 4,374 4,028 4,653 4,290 1,000 0 Total R&D costs of which capitalized amortization recognized in the income statement Total R&D costs of which capitalized amortization recognized in the income statement 35

36 Volkswagen Golf Variant 36

37 Audi R8 Spyder 37

38 Škoda Superb Combi 38

39 SEAT SEAT IBZ Ibiza (concept FR car) 39

40 Bentley Mulsanne 40

41 Lamborghini Reventón Roadster 41

42 Scania R 480 Highline 42

43 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese rinminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded. 43