Who killed the electric car? (is it really dead???) Ramon Sanchez. Harvard University

Transcription

1 Who killed the electric car? (is it really dead???).

2 Background information on car technologies The rise, fall and rebirth of electric vehicles Slide # 2

3 Background information on car technologies The electric car was born in the XIX Century and was a serious competitor of internal combustion engine vehicles. Low battery technology development, state of the art of electrical systems at the time and cheap oil killed the electric car for the first time in the early 20th Century. Slide # 3

4 Background information on car technologies Electric cars were reborn in late 20th Century due to air pollution problems caused by vehicles using an internal combustion engine. California required that 5 % of its vehicle fleet had zero emissions by the early years of the 21st Century. Slide # 4

5 Background information on car technologies General Motors created the EV1 electric vehicle in the 1990 s. This vehicle was mass produced for a while. However, after 2000, the new federal administration relaxed environmental requirements and the company decided to stop its production. Why? Slide # 5

6 How: Inefficiencies Drag Down Conventional Vehicle MPG Conventional (Gasoline) Vehicle: 28 mpg 100 units Fuel 22 units units 22% 74% Engine Transmission Vehicle Characteristics Coeff/Drag = 0.32 Frontal Area = 2.0 m^2 Coeff/Rolling Resist = Mass = 3500 lb Slide # 6 Source: U.S. EPA Office of Mobile Sources

7 Modern Reciprocating Engine Slide # 7

8 Who killed the electric car? Economic interests. Widespread use of electric vehicle technologies could decrease sales of spare parts by $5 Billion/year due to its simplified and reliable automotive design (it would take 10 to 15 years) VS Slide # 8

9 Who killed the electric vehicle recently? The available battery technology??? Type of Battery Power/Weight Discharge efficiency Cycle durability Power $ Toxicity Lead Acid 180 W/kg % cycles $7 18 USD/Wh High Nickel Cadmium 150 W/kg % 2000 cycles $12 USD/Wh High Nickel Metal Hydride W/kg 66 % cycles $1.37 USD/Wh Moderate - Low Lithium-ion 1800 W/kg 99.9% 1200 cycles $ USD/Wh Moderate - Low Lithium- ion polymer 2800 W/kg 99.8% 1000 cycles $2.8 5 USD/Wh Moderate - Low Zinc Air Battery Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Molten Salt Battery Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Experimental, Not available Slide # 9

10 Who killed the electric car? Economic interests: Marketing VS Sale price: $20,000 25,000 dollars Slide # 10 Sale price: >$40,000

11 Who killed the electric car? Resistance to change and fear of the unknown = How do you tell your workers that vehicles are about to change significantly and they need retraining to build the new product? (Product phase-in period > 10 Years) How do you tell your workers that you need to close old plants for months to re-tool them to make the new product? How do you plan to finance and sequence the transition? How do you tell your dealers that they need to train their mechanics to be specialists in electrical systems? How do you tell your dealers that your car will be more reliable and it is likely to have less car services? (which represent 30 to 35 % of their total revenues) How do you deal with labor unions and other political groups? Slide # 11

12 Why did we waste this opportunity? How could you be so blind to waste a 10-year technological lead? GM built thousands of EV1 s, these vehicles were reliable, easy to use and accepted by the costumers. The plan was to fulfill the 5 % requirement for zero emission vehicles and use electric technologies to have a full plug-in hybrid vehicle platform by 2010 Most Japanese and European automotive manufacturers increased their research and technology efforts in electric vehicle technologies as a response to the EV1 challenge Slide # 12

13 Competitors benefited from GM s action The EV1 was killed systematically to protect short term economic gains and avoid the uncertain effects of a major technological transition. Japanese manufacturers well, they catched up and developed the first mass production hybrid vehicle in the U.S. Slide # 13

14 Results of bad product development decisions Results (first decade of the 21st Century) Slide # 14

15 GM s reaction after bankcrupcy Answer: Three GM divisions were sold, hybrid electric vehicles have been designed for all GM product lines Slide # 15

16 Why did we have to go through this process? Why wait 10 years, let competitors catch up, be intervened by the government and go bankrupt in order to do the right thing? Slide # 16

17 Really? Preacher? Tuesday morning Quarterback? Well, not quite Slide # 17

18 This is a real example of things we can do with existing tech What if 1989 GMC Custom Deluxe, 2010 GMC Sierra Crew Cab, 6.2 liters V8 6.6 liters V8 Plug-in Hybrid Diesel Diesel 350 HP, 9500 lbs towing capacity, payload 1500 lbs* 365 HP, 9600 lbs towing capacity, payload lbs 24/ 30 MPG [42.5 / 37.5 MPGeq] 16/ 20 MPG Slide # 18 *Estimated values, we don t have its official performance specs from GM

19 Hybrid Power train Challenges Rechargeable Energy System Minimize electrical efficiency losses Fuel Transmission Engine Minimize mechanical efficiency losses Source: U.S. EPA Office of Mobile Sources Optimize regenerative braking while maintaining safety Slide # 19

20 Hybrid Fuel Efficiency Potential Slide # 20

21 Energy Use Conventional Vehicle Slide # 21

22 Background information on car technologies We have been using diesel-electric hybrids for more than 70 years!!! Centennial DD40X: Union Pacific has retained only one of its 47 Centennial diesel-electric locomotives, No The Centennials were the largest diesel-electric locomotives ever built. Actually comprising two engines on one frame, they delivered 6,600 horsepower. Designed and built exclusively for Union Pacific Railroad, the units were named in honor of the railroad's centennial anniversary celebration in Accordingly, they were numbered in the 6900 series, from 6900 to Slide # 22

23 Energy Use Hybrid Vehicle What if it where a dieselhybrid engine? Then we would have energy efficiencies of mpg without changing our current automotive technologies Slide # 23

24 Is the electric car really death? New Electric Cars 2008 The Tesla Roadster, the first 500 units were delivered in early 2008, it uses Li-Ion batteries to achieve 245 miles per charge, while also capable of going 0-60 in under 4 seconds. The Toyota RAV4 EV was powered by twentyfour 12 volt batteries, with an operational cost equivalent of over 165 miles per gallon at 2005 US gasoline prices. Slide # 24

25 Is the electric car really death? New Electric Cars 2010 The Saturn Vue Green Line, is a plug-in hybrid wigh Lithium-ion batteries that would give an equivalent energy efficiency of 70 mpg under normal operation. Mass production for this vehicle started in 2010 (so, it was the 2011 Model Year) The GM Volt, is a plug-in hybrid with Lithium-ion batteries that would give an energy efficiency equivalent to 150 mpg with a range of 640 miles. (Available since 2011 Model Year) Slide # 25

26 Is the electric car really death? Growth of Battery Electric Vehicles in the USA 60,000 Number of Battery Electric Vehicles 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year Slide #

27 Is the electric car really death? Slide # 27 Source: Electric Drive Transportation Association, January 2016

28 Thank you!!! There is nothing more difficult to execute nor more dubious of success nor more dangerous to administer than to introduce a New Order of Things Slide # 28