Trend Report on Competition and Consumer Confidence in the Energy Market Second half of 2011

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1 Trend Report on Competition and Consumer Confidence in the Energy Market Second half of 2011 Office of Energy Regulation The Netherlands Competition Authority The Hague, March 2012

2 Contents Introduction Demand for products Contracts by term length Contracts by term length and tariff Sustainable products Prices Price differences Breakdown of energy bill Consumer perceptions of energy prices Concentration Switching Switching rate Switching and propensity to switch Barriers to switching Switching in other industries Indications regarding energy Consumer satisfaction and confidence...21 List of figures Figure 1: Contracts sold by term length (ratios on December 31 of each year and on June 30, 2011)... 6 Figure 2: Electricity and gas contracts with fixed terms by tariff type (on 1, 2012)... 6 Figure 3 Green-power and brown-power contracts for households (on December 31 of each year, and on June 30 and December 31, 2011)...7 Figure 4: Electricity price trends (only a single measurement is available for 5-year contracts)...8 Figure 5: Gas price trends... 9 Figure 6: Differences in electricity prices (on December 31, 2011)...10 Figure 7: Differences in natural-gas prices (on December 31, 2011) Figure 8: Differences in dual-fuel contract prices on two price comparison websites (in February 2012) Figure 9: Breakdown of average energy bill as of 1, Figure 10: Evaluation of energy prices...14 Figure 11: C3-index trend since liberalization of energy market Figure 12: HHI-index trend since liberalization of energy market Figure 13: Annual switching rates for electricity and natural gas (source: EDSN)...16 Figure 14: Propensity to switch...17 Figure 15: Reasons for not switching (percentages of respondents, multiple responses possible) Figure 16: Price barrier for switching...19 Figure 17: Energy-related indications received by ConsuWijzer in Figure 18: Contact methods of energy companies (percentages of respondents) Figure 19: Ratio of consumers reporting provision of unclear information (percentages of affected consumers)...22 NMa Office of Energy Regulation 2 / 19 March 2012

3 Introduction Objective of this energy report By publishing this trend report, the Office of Energy Regulation presents the trends of a number of core indicators of the consumer energy market. It provides readers with an up-to-date overview of the most important trends on the consumer energy market. Approach and indicators Using a number of core indicators, the report describes the market outcomes and market structure of the consumer market, as well as consumer behavior. 1 It is limited to a presentation of several figures and factual data on the demand for products, prices, concentration, switching, consumer satisfaction and confidence, and the number of indications received by ConsuWijzer, respectively. 1 Two main sources were used for this report. On the one hand, information provided by energy suppliers was used, while on the other hand, the Office of Energy Regulation s regular consumer survey, which is carried out in June and December, was used. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 3 / 19 March 2012

4 1 Demand for products 1.1 Contracts by term length Up until the first half of 2011, consumers increasingly took out fixed-term contracts. This trend appeared to have been reversed in the second half of 2011 (figure 1). Electricity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H H2 Gas 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H H2 Permanent 1-year 2-year 3-year 5-year Figure 1: Contracts sold by term length (ratios on December 31 of each year and on June 30, 2011) NMa Office of Energy Regulation 4 / 19 March 2012

5 1.2 Contracts by term length and tariff Suppliers tend to offer fixed-term contracts in combination with fixed tariffs, except for the 1-year contracts (figure 2). Electricity 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1-year 2-year 3-year 5-year Variable Fixed Gas 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1-year 2-year 3-year 5-year Variable Fixed Figure 2: Electricity and gas contracts with fixed terms by tariff type (on 1, 2012) Compared with the first half of 2011, the selection of fixed-variable combinations for 1-year contracts has decreased. In the first half of 2011, 1-year electricity contracts with a variable tariff had a share of almost 70%, compared with 60% in the second half of NMa Office of Energy Regulation 5 / 19 March 2012

6 1.3 Sustainable products More than half of all Dutch households (54%) consume power from sustainable sources (green power). This is a slight decrease compared with the first half of 2011 (57%). However, it is still higher than in 2010 (44%). One supplier in particular has been responsible for this increased share of green-power consumption as it started converting its brown-power contracts into green-power contracts. Ratio between brown and green power 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H H2 Brown Green Figure 3 Green-power and brown-power contracts for households (on December 31 of each year, and on June 30 and December 31, 2011) NMa Office of Energy Regulation 6 / 19 March 2012

7 2 Prices The figures below show the trend of electricity and gas prices for permanent contracts with variable tariffs, and permanent contracts with fixed tariffs, expressed as costs per year for an average household 2. The annual costs in these figures reflect the supply tariff minus taxes. Electricity price trend (permanent contracts) Permanent contract with variable price Permanent contract with variable green Electricity price trend (fixed term contracts) year 2-year 3-year 5-year Figure 4: Electricity price trends (only a single measurement is available for 5-year contracts) 2,3 Based on a household s average annual consumption in 2010: 3,480 kwh electricity and 1,617 m 3 gas. Source: Energie in Nederland 2011 (Dutch publication). NMa Office of Energy Regulation 7 / 19 March 2012

8 The electricity price for fixed-term contracts with variable tariffs increased in the second half of 2011 from 269 in 2011 to 285 on 1, Green-power contracts on average were slightly cheaper in 2011, while annual costs were 274 on 1, The fixed-term contracts offer a similar picture. On 1, 2012, annual costs for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year contracts were 278, 283, 275 and 286, respectively. Gas prices Gas price trend (permanent contracts) Permanent contract with variable price Gas price trend (fixed term contracts) year 2-year 3-year 5-year Figure 5: Gas price trends NMa Office of Energy Regulation 8 / 19 March 2012

9 Gas prices for permanent contracts with variable tariffs increased from 591 on 1, 2011 to 605 on 1, Gas prices for fixed-term contracts with fixed tariffs remained stable, except for the 3-year contracts for gas, which decreased from 626 to Price differences The figures below show the annualized price difference in costs between the most expensive and the cheapest contract, and the difference between the average and the cheapest contract, respectively, for an average supplier. Figures 6 and 7 are based on data provided by suppliers on contracts for electricity or gas only. Figure 8 is based on data on contracts for both electricity and gas, coming from two random pricecomparison websites. These figures are based on an average household s annual consumption. These results are therefore an approximation of actual price differences. Electricity price differences Permanent contract 1-year 3-year Average Cheapest Most expensive Cheapest Figure 6: Differences in electricity prices (on December 31, 2011) The 3-year contracts (with a fixed tariff) have the biggest price differences: the difference between the most expensive and the cheapest 3-year contract is 52. Compared with the first of 2011, the price differences between the cheapest and the average electricity contract for all contract types have increased. The differences between the cheapest and the most expensive contract (for all types) have decreased, except for the 3-year contract. For natural gas, the difference between the most expensive and the cheapest contract is the biggest with the 1-year contract, which is 107 (figure 8). Compared with the first half of 2011, the price differences between the most expensive and the cheapest contract (for all types) have increased, except for 3-year contracts. So this trend is the opposite of that in electricity. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 9 / 19 March 2012

10 Natural-gas price differences Permanent contract 1-year 3-year Average Cheapest Most expensive Cheapest Figure 7: Differences in natural-gas prices (on December 31, 2011) The price differences on price comparison websites Similar to the first half of 2011, the biggest price differences on price comparison websites have been observed with contracts that combine electricity and natural gas (dual fuel). This observation is reflected by figure 8 based on a snapshot of prices taken from two random price comparison websites. These too are an approximation of actual price differences. Another trend is that fixed-term contracts are increasingly offered with month-based terms rather than year-based terms. That is part of the reason why the term categories in figure 8 differs from the previous figures. Dual fuel price differences on price comparison websites Permanent contract months months Average Cheapest Most expensive Cheapest Figure 8: Differences in dual-fuel contract prices on two price comparison websites (in February 2012) NMa Office of Energy Regulation 10 / 19 March 2012

11 2.2 Breakdown of energy bill On 1, 2012, households paid on average 1,880 per year for electricity and natural gas (figure 9), 48% of which are supply costs, 17% network costs and meter rent, and 35% energy tax and VAT. These shares have not changed since a year ago. Average annual costs have risen though, since these were still 1,685 on 1, The increase can be attributed to an increase in supply and network costs. In addition, the energy tax rate has increased as well. Electricity and gas consumption have remained reasonably stable in recent years 3. Energy-bill breakdown as of 1, ; 9% 300 ; 16% 26 ; 1% 119 ; 6% 19 ; 1% 348 ; 19% 285 ; 15% 605 ; 33% Networkcosts E Meter rent E Network costs G Meter rent G Retail costs E Retail costs G Energy tax VAT Figure 9: Breakdown of average energy bill as of 1, Average energy consumption per household in 2009 was 3,430 kwh and 1,609 m3 gas. Consumption slightly increased in 2010 to 3,480 kwh and 1,617 m3 gas. Source: Energie in Nederland 2010 and Energie in Nederland NMa Office of Energy Regulation 11 / 19 March 2012

12 2.3 Consumer perceptions of energy prices Just as in the first half of 2011, a substantial share (79%) of consumers perceived energy prices high or very high (figure 10). In the second half of 2011, consumers estimated that, on average, they were paying 167 per month on energy. That is 10 less than in the first half of This most recent estimate of total costs is on par with that of 2010 ( 164). In that year, fewer consumers perceived energy prices as high or very high. Perception of enery prices HY (n=559) HY (n=520) (n=1000) (n=1040) (n=1044) Figure 10: Evaluation of energy prices very high high reasonable/ just right low very low NMa Office of Energy Regulation 12 / 19 March 2012

13 3 Concentration In the second half of 2011, both the C3 and the HHI 4 indices remained stable compared with the first half of The C3 index on 1, 2012 was 85% for electricity and 83% for natural gas, while the HHI index was 2,465 for electricity and 2,344 for natural gas. C3 - market share in percentages 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Electricity Gas Figure 11: C3-index trend since liberalization of energy market HHI Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Electricity Gas 1800 Figure 12: HHI-index trend since liberalization of energy market 4 The Herfindahl-Hirschman index is equal to the sum of the squares of the market shares in percentages. An increase in the HHI may indicate a decrease in competition, whereas a decrease in the HHI may indicate increased competition. For the calculation of the indices on the small-scale user market for electricity and natural gas, the market shares of the parent companies were used. Suppliers that fall under the same parent company have been grouped into the same parent company. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 13 / 19 March 2012

14 4 Switching 4.1 Switching rate Switching rate per year 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Electricity Gas Figure 13: Annual switching rates for electricity and natural gas (source: EDSN) In 2011, the switching rate slightly rose compared with the previous year. From 1 through December 31, 2011, 9.7% of all small-scale electricity users switched, and 9.8% of small-scale gas users did so. 4.2 Switching and propensity to switch Compared with six months earlier, consumer propensity to switch within two years remained unchanged in the second half of 2011: 26% of consumers said they considered switching (figure 14). For many consumers, the experience of switching is critical in their decision to switch again. The share of switchers that have switched at least once is rising, as 49% of switchers have switched twice or more since In the second half of 2011, the share of switchers has risen from 33% to 35%. In addition, the increasing trend of switching contracts (with their current supplier) continued in the second half of By now, 30% of consumers that have not switched suppliers have switched contracts with their current supplier. Since 2004, 65% of consumers have either switched suppliers or contracts. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 14 / 19 March 2012

15 HY (n=559) HY (n=520) 2010 (n=1000) 2009 (n=1040) Propensity to switch 26% 27% 24% 29% 74% 73% 76% 71% 2008 (n=1044) 23% 77% Will switch (likely + definitely) Will not switch (likely + definitely Figure 14: Propensity to switch 4.3 Barriers to switching For 69% of consumers, satisfaction with their current supplier is the primary reason for not considering switching in the next two years. This means that, as in previous surveys, satisfaction with their current supplier is, by far, the most important reason not to switch. Satisfied with current supplier Switching takes a lot of time/effort Afraid of red tape if I switch Current supplier offers good service Currently on fixed term contract with current supplier Current supplier has competitive prices Afraid I''ll end up paying more than I was promised Reasons for not switching Afraid to be disconnected 1 2 HY (n=478) HY (n=447) 2010 (n=885) 2009 (n=928) 2008 (n=950) Figure 15: Reasons for not switching (percentages of respondents, multiple responses possible) Another barrier to switching is the level of the price barrier that consumers perceive. In the first half of 2011, it was found that the difference between the estimated cost savings and the desired price benefit was rising (figure 16). Even though this difference slightly decreased in the second half of 2011, the gap remains large. In the second half of 2011, consumers believed they could save 59 on average from switching, while they NMa Office of Energy Regulation 15 / 19 March 2012

16 wished to save 190. Nevertheless, that gap of 131 can, under certain conditions (consumption, current contract type), be bridged if the price benefits that are actually possible are taken into consideration (see section 2.1) Price barrier (n=1044) 2009 (n=1040) 2010 (n=1000) HY (n=520) HY (n=559) Figure 16: Price barrier for switching 4.4 Switching in other industries The share of consumers that in the second half of 2011 said that, since 1, 2004, they have switched health insurers and mobile-phone providers is 27% and 42% respectively. These shares are practically the same as those in the first half of With a share of 35% of consumers that switched energy suppliers, the energy industry s percentage lies in between those of the health insurers and mobile-phone providers. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 16 / 19 March 2012

17 5 Indications regarding energy In the second half of 2011, consumer information portal Consuwijzer received more than 3,500 energy-related indications 5. The majority of these concerned customer-recruitment and sales methods, and energy bills. The latter involves issues such as failure to directly settle re-delivered energy, switching meter modes (day/ night), the level of the cancellation fee, or higher energy bills than expected. Another reason for contacting Consuwijzer is the estimated meter readings on energy bills. Indications Consuwijzer 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H H Customer recruitment and salesmethods Bills and payments Anullment of contracts Energy tariffs Questions on privacy Faulty products and services Other Figure 17: Energy-related indications received by ConsuWijzer in Indications include all questions and complaints Consuwijzer receives by phone, and regular mail. In addition, the NMa receives business questions and complaints through the NMa Information and Tip-Off Line. These have not been included in these figures. NMa Office of Energy Regulation 17 / 19 March 2012

18 6 Consumer satisfaction and confidence Since 2010, energy consumer confidence has risen significantly. In 2010, 54% of consumers said they had a lot of to complete confidence in the energy market. In the second half of 2011, this share has risen to 59%. Satisfaction with the service of one s own energy supplier remains high. Since 2008, dissatisfaction has seen a steady decline, and has almost completely disappeared by now. Just 1% of consumers say they are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their provider s service. In the second half of 2011 too, fewer consumers say they have been contacted by an energy provider. In the second half of 2011, 66% of consumers say they have. In 2010, 81% of consumers were contacted (figure 18). The primary cause of this decline is a decrease in the use of telephones when contacting potential customers. Contact methods yes, by telephone yes, door-to-door-sales yes, by yes, by mail no contact HY (n=559) HY (n=520) 2010 (n=1000) Figure 18: Contact methods of energy companies (percentages of respondents) A majority of consumers said the information they received during such interactions is unclear: 57% of consumers that have been contacted said so in the second half of 2011 (figure 19). NMa Office of Energy Regulation 18 / 19 March 2012

19 Provision of unclear information HY (n=371) HY (n=366) (n=801) (n=955) (n=949) yes no don't know Figure 19: Ratio of consumers reporting provision of unclear information (percentages of affected consumers) NMa Office of Energy Regulation 19 / 19 March 2012

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