Schmidt's 2010 BRIC Study

Transcription

1 Schmidt's 2010 BRIC Study "New fuel to power global future automotive industry" Passenger car sales and production "Past, current and future automotive trends to 2015 in BRIC Countries..." June 2010

2 Table of Contents "Today, yesterday & tomorrow" Management Summary Today and recent past 15 Dynamo behind global automotive industry's future growth 15 Future 16 Brazil Suddenly, Brazil's motor is firing on all cylinders 18 China and Brazil live up to upbeat earlier BRIC country expectations 18 In the nick of time - Brazil's government rides to the rescue of fast-flagging car market. 18 December 2008 tax cuts work wonders 19 Tax holiday gets ball rolling again 19 VW makes good on earlier promise to take lead in Brazil's car market, albeit by the narrowest of margins 20 Fiat appears unwilling to pass market leadership to ambitious VW without a fight 21 GM slips back into! the slow lane, victim of raging Fiat-Volkswagen leadership battle.. 21 VW Brazil gearing up to sell 1 million vehicles by Near 200 million population says more growth in prospect s 21 VW already unleashed an avalanche of new products aimed principally at Brazil's recovering market 22 Brazil's car market is almost totally dominated by alcohol-powered cars 22 The type of car favoured by today's Brazilian buyers has strong Indian echoes % of the cars sold in Brazil in 2009 were tiny Basic- and Small-sector cars 23 Brazil - Market Outlook to Steady increase in car production, but nothing drastic 23 Russia Russia fails to live up to BRIC member expectations 24 Last year Russia's previously buzzing car market shed most of earlier large gains 25 Gripped by chill winds on domestic front 25

3 Enough is enough - Russia's government feels compelled to ride to the rescue of suffering domestic champion Lada 25 Lada's home share sinks to new all-time low 25 Top seller league dominated by mainly cheap and cheerful cars 26 Trickle of red ink turns to flood 26 April sees first rise after 18-months of unbroken sales decline 26 Lada's Lower-medium sector cars take four out of last year's top five positions 27 Russia remains Europe's way ahead biggest SUV market, that likely to remain the case during the forecast period 27 Diesels are beginning to make notable inroads 28 Russia - Market outlook to India India is China's poor cousin 29 India's 2009 car market sees modest 17.4% growth to 1.44 million units 29 Overshadowed by China 30 Altogether different second half 30 Small inexpensive baby cars accounted for more than 90% of last year's Indian car market 31 Maruti Suzuki's own cars accounted last year for half of India's car market 31 Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai currently control over 70% of India's car market 32 Tata's already weak grip has loosened further last year 32 First year home sales of supply constrained Nano reached just 17,500 units figures reveal 33 Hyundai also making waves in India 33 India-made ilo and i20 attracted the lion's share of last year's Hyundai sales in India.. 33 Likely to turn into Asian hub for the production and exports of tiny cheap cars with few frills 34 India's favourable cost base and razor-sharp domestic baby car market tipped to evolve into profitable springboard for entering price sensitive western small car markets in force 34 India only BRIC member where diesel cars sell in commercially significant numbers India - Market outlook to Growing exports of India-made small cars 35

4 China China's car sales soar 55% to 8.2m 36 China, among the four BRIC countries, has the far and away biggest car market, and the sheer size of it is such that it dwarfs the rest of the area by a considerable margin 36 December's 0.9m sales already exceed the number of cars sold during the whole of rd and 4th quarter car sales surge hits 80% 37 Cheap small cars suddenly attract attention of China's ordinary buyers 37 First signs of downsizing 37 Lower taxes for sub 1.6 litre engines help buoy small car sales 38 SUVs keep pace with breathtaking expansion of China's total vehicle market 38 Honda CR-V sales balloon to 104, Squeezed from previously unexpected quarters 39 Audi strengthens luxury sector foothold 39 China's intrinsic domestic carmakers were last year's outstanding gainers 39 Full-blown Chery turnaround 40 Greatly revitalised domestic carmakers capture much improved 29.5% of 2009 sales Roaring Chinese car sales growth ; 41 In the year to March more cars were sold in China than in the US 41 Sky is the limit, but this year's car sales could conceivably breach the 10m plus barrier.. 41 Heat still on 41 First quarter sales of Audi's built-up imports soar 145% to 6,898 cars 42 China's flourishing luxury car segment still served mainly with built-up imports 42 Mercedes says it more than doubled its 1st quarter car sales in China 42 Basic-sector cars surrender some earlier won ground 43 Chery fails to keep pace with explosive overall car sales growth 43 China's leading intrinsic brands lose out to flashier cars from western rivals 44 Xiali also fails to catch the tide 44 Paradoxically, home share of intrinsic domestics continues to climb 44 BYD is now China's leading domestic carmaker 44 New frontiers 46 Today China has eclipsed Germany as VW Group's way-ahead biggest 46 China nudges aside Germany as Audi's biggest market 46 BMW determined to move hot on Audi's heels, aims for 120,000 China sales this year alone 46 Urbanisation 47 Network of modern motorways 47 No fewer than 23 cities with population between 2 to 4 million - highlights future car demand patterns 47 China - Outlook to China's car production, so far a near mirror image of domestic sales, also heading for 10m cars in

5 SECTION ONE Forecast Overview SALES Major World Markets - Passenger Car Sales ( ) 52 BRIC Markets - Passenger Car Sales ( ) 53 PRODUCTION Major World Markets - Passenger Car Production ( ) 54 BRIC Markets - Passenger Car Production ( ) 55 SECTION TWO BRIC Sales Summary BRIC - Passenger Car Sales ( ) 59 BRIC - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 60 BRIC - Passenger Car Sales by Manufacturer (2009/2008) 61 BRIC Passenger Car Sales by Manufacturer x Market '. 62 BRIC Passenger Car Sales by Manufacturer x Market 63 VW Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 64 VW Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 64 GM Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 65 GM Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 65 Hyundai Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 66 Hyundai Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 66 Suzuki/Maruti - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 67 Suzuki/Maruti - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 67 Toyota Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 68 Toyota Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 68 Honda - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 69 Honda - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 69 Fiat Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 70 Fiat Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 70 Nissan - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 71 Nissan - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 71 Ford - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 72 Ford - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 72 PSA Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 73 PSA Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 73 BYD - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 74 BYD - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 74

6 Chery - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 75 Chery - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 75 Lada - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 76 Lada - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 76 Geely Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 77 Geely Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 77 Xiali - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 78 Xiali - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 78 Tata Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 79 Tata Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 79 Mazda - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 80 Mazda - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 80 Renault Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 81 Renault Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 81 BMW Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 82 BMW Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 82 Daimler Group - Passenger Car Sales by Market (2009/2008) 83 Daimler Group - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 83 BRIC - European Carmakers' Sales by Market (2009/2008) 84 European Manufacturers - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 86 BRIC - Japanese Carmakers' Sales by Market (2009/2008) 87 Japanese Manufacturers - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 89 BRIC - Korean Carmakers' Sales by Market (2009/2008) 90 Korean Manufacturers - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 92 BRIC - Chinese Carmakers' Sales by Market (2009/2008) 93 Chinese Manufacturers - Share of BRIC Car Market (2009) 95 BRIC - Passenger Car Sales by Sector (2009/2008) 97 SECTION THREE BRIC Production Summary BRIC - Net Passenger Car Production versus Sales ( ) 100 BRIC - Net Passenger Car Production ( ) 101 BRIC - Net Passenger Car Production by Country (2009/2008) 102 SECTION FOUR BRIC Sales by Market Brazil - Passenger Car Registrations ( ) 105 Brazil - Passenger Car Registrations by Manufacturer (2009/2008) 106

7 Brazil - Top 30 Best Selling Models (2009/2008) 107 Brazil - Passenger Car Registrations by Sector (2009/2008) 108 Russia - Passenger Car Registrations ( ) 110 Russia - Passenger Car Registrations by Manufacturer (2009/2008) Ill Russia - Top 30 Best Selling Models (2009/2008) 112 Russia - Passenger Car Registrations by Sector (2009/2008) 113 India - Passenger Car Sales ( ) 115 India - Passenger Car Sales by Manufacturer (2009/2008) 116 India - Top 30 Best Selling Models (2009/2008) 117 India - Passenger Car Registrations by Sector (2009/2008) 118 China - Passenger Car Registrations ( ) 120 China - Passenger Car Registrations by Manufacturer (2009/2008) 121 China - Top 30 Best Selling Models (2009/2008) 122 China - Passenger Car Registrations by Sector (2009/2008) 123 SECTION FIVE BRIC Production by Country Brazil - Passenger Car Production ( ) 127 Russia - Passenger Car Production ( ) 129 India - Passenger Car Production ( ) 131 China - Passenger Car Production ( ) 133