World Shipyard Monitor

Transcription

1 World Shipyard Monitor Volume 11, No.11 November-2004 ISSN: Highlights Orderbook The global orderbook increased to 3,861 vessels of 213.1m dwt by the end of October p.2/3. New Orders 171 vessels of 6.6m dwt were ordered during October. p.4/5. Deliveries An exceptionally low number of deliveries were reported across all sectors... p.6/7. Newbuilding Prices Continuing imbalances between supply and demand caused prices to rise once more....p.8. Investment Investment in new ships has now overtaken the 2003 total, reaching the $60bn mark..p.9. Contracting by Region Chinese shipbuilding now accounts for 13.4% of the global orderbook by CGT...p.12. Deliveries by Region 152 vessels of 2.03m dwt are scheduled for delivery from European yards in the remainder of p.14/15. Shipyard Capacity Stocznia Gdynia yard in Poland currently has the largest of the European orderbooks.... p.16. Demolition No change in the demolition market high rates have caused a dearth of tonnage..... p.20. Shipbuilding Focus The sleeping giant awakes: a focus on the emergence of the Chinese shipbuilding industry as a world force p Damen, Hoogezand, Neth. 2.AESA, Puertoreal, Spain 3.Fincantieri, Monfalcone, Italy 4.AESA, Sestao, Spain 5.HDW, Kiel, Germany 6.Odense, Lindo, Denmark 4 JAPAN 1.Mitsubishi, Nagasaki 2.Hitachi, Ariake 3.Imabari,Marugame 4.Namura, Imari 5.Mitsui, Chiba 6.Kawasaki, Sakaide 7.Sumitomo, Oppama 8.Oshima, Oshima 9.I.H.I., Kure 10.Nippon Kokan, Tsu 4 8 S.KOREA Major European Shipyards MAIN SHIPYARDS 7.Harland & Wolff, Belfast, UK 8.Ch. de L'Atl., St.Nazaire, France 9.Stocznia Szczecin, Poland 10.Brod. 3 Maj, Rijeka, Croatia 11.Kvaerner Masa, Turku, Finland 12.Meeres Technik, Wismar, Ger Major Far Eastern Shipyards MAIN SHIPYARDS 11.Shin Kurushima, Onishi 12.Koyo, Mihara 13.Tsuneishi, Numakuma SOUTH KOREA 1.Hyundai, Ulsan 2.Daewoo, Okpo 3.Samsung, Koje 4.Samho, Samho 5.Hanjin, Busan 6.STX, Chinhae CHINA 1.Dalian New Yard, Dalian 2.Jiangnan, Shanghai 3.Hudong, Shanghai 4.Shanghai, Shanghai 5.Guangzhou, Guangzhou 6.Xingang, Tianjin 10 1 TAIWAN 1.China Sb., Kaohsiung 2.China Sb., Keelung 13.Brod. Split, Split, Croatia 14.MeyerWerft, Papenburg, Ger. 15.Stocznia Gdynia, Poland 16.Varna Shipyard, Bulgaria 17.Fincantieri, Marghera, Italy 18.Galatz Shipyard, Romania JAPAN 5 Shipping Intelligence Network... "represents a giant leap forward in the information technology development in shipping." Want your information faster go to Shipping Intelligence Network on "With shipping's first 'need to know' information portal, Clarkson has made shipping intelligence better than ever before."

2 Specialised Chemical Products Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize Combos FCC<3Kteu FCC>3Kteu Orderbook As % Of Fleet (DWT) 2.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 6.2% Bulk Vessel Orderbook No. end Orderbook by Vessel Type m.cgt, end: Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, , Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Orderbook Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Other Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels 1,338 1, Total Orderbook 28.3% 28.3% 28.9% 28.9% 20.8% 17.9% 23.8% 22.8% 18.1% 19.7% 29.1% 24.2% 20.1% 14.2% 27.7% 22.1% 34.5% 32.0% No. end 60.5% 56.1% End Oct 04 End % 68.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Clarkson Research Studies m.cgt, end: Orderbook, Delivery in: 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* All Vessels Types 3,129 3, Clarkson Research Studies Page 2 m. DWT, end: m. DWT, end: No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Summary October 2004 The global orderbook increased to 3,861 vessels of 213.1m dwt by the end of October, up from 3,718 vessels of 208.6m dwt at the end of September. Contracting remained strong at 6.6m dwt whilst deliveries were exceptionally low when compared to recent months, just 1.6m dwt. The boom in new orders shows no immediate sign of letting up, and we expect the global orderbook to increase further in the coming months. The bulk carrier orderbook increased for the first time in three months, up from 798 vessels of 62.2m dwt at the end of September to 819 vessels of 63.9m dwt. This is due to a resurgence in bulker ordering coupled with very low levels of deliveries. The containership orderbook continues to strengthen, reaching 43.7m dwt by the end of October. For comparison, the end of 2002 figure was just 14.1m dwt, demonstrating the scale of the insatiable demand for containership newbuilds in the last two years. The tanker orderbook also grew, notably in the Panamax size which now totals 60.5% of the current fleet. N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu,,000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

3 Orderbook by Vessel Type Monthly Forward Orderbook by Shiptype (m. cgt) 3.00 m. cgt Tankers Combos Container Bulkers Gas Source: Clarkson Research Studies Bulk Vessel Orderbook Orderbook, Delivery in: Oct* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Orderbook Million GT Orderbook, Delivery in: Oct* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Total Orderbook Million GT Million GT Orderbook, Delivery in: Oct* All Vessels Types N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu,,000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable. Clarkson Research Studies Page 3

4 m. cgt Quarterly Contracting by m. cgt Tankers Bulkers Gas Container Other 1Q97 3Q97 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Bulk Vessel Contracting New Orders by Vessel Type 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* This Year v. Last VLCC > 200, DOWN BY.. -16% Suezmax , DOWN BY.. -39% Aframax , DOWN BY.. -38% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -12% Products 10-60, DOWN BY.. -12% Chemical 10-60, UP BY. 42% Specialised 10-60, DOWN BY.. -70% Tankers > 10, DOWN BY.. -21% Tankers < 10, STEADY AT. 4% Capesize > 80, STEADY AT. 0% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -45% Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY.. -38% Handysize 10-40, DOWN BY.. -30% Bulkers > 10, DOWN BY.. -23% Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels 1, DOWN BY.. -22% Special Vessel Contracting 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* This Year v. Last LNG Carriers UP BY. 429% LPG Carriers UP BY. 102% Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu DOWN BY.. -25% Containers < 3,000 teu STEADY AT. -2% Other Dry > 5,000 dwt UP BY. 14% Offshore & Others UP BY. 153% Cruise Vessels UP BY. 435% Ro-Ro Ferries DOWN BY.. -66% Total Special Vessels STEADY AT. 5% Total Contracting Source: Clarkson Research Studies No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: No. end m.cgt, end: No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* This Year v. Last All Vessels Types 2,029 1, DOWN BY.. -15% Clarkson Research Studies Page 4 Summary October vessels of 6.6m dwt were ordered during October, an increase of 14 vessels from the previous month but a drop in deadweight terms of 1.9m dwt. This highlights the increasing trend for ordering smaller ships, as building capacity is very tight at the major yards for larger vessel sizes. 25 crude tankers of 2.2m dwt were ordered last month along with 28 chemical and smaller specialised tankers of 0.7m dwt. These include two VLCCs, seven Aframaxes, five Panamaxes, 11 Handy product tankers, 19 Handy chemical tankers and nine specialised tankers of less than 10,000 dwt. 26 orders of 1.4m dwt were placed for bulk carriers including seven Capesizes, 11 Handymaxes and eight Handysizes. Last month there were 23 orders of 2.4m dwt, highlighting the more general trend for smaller vessels being ordered this month. The high demand for containerships shows no signs of abating, with a further 41 contracts totalling 1.7m dwt signed in October including eight of post-panamax size. m. DWT, end: Ordering Trends Ordering Trends Ordering Trends N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu, '000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

5 Bulk Vessel Contracting New Orders by Vessel Type Oct* This Year v. Last VLCC > 200, DOWN BY.. -16% Suezmax , DOWN BY.. -39% Aframax , DOWN BY.. -39% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -13% Products 10-60, DOWN BY.. -12% Chemical 10-60, UP BY. 40% Specialised 10-60, DOWN BY.. -57% Tankers > 10, DOWN BY.. -21% Tankers < 10, STEADY AT. -1% Capesize > 80, STEADY AT. -1% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY.. -46% Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY.. -37% Handysize 10-40, DOWN BY.. -29% Bulkers > 10, DOWN BY.. -23% Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels DOWN BY.. -22% Special Vessel Contracting Oct* This Year v. Last LNG Carriers UP BY. 423% LPG Carriers UP BY. 109% Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu DOWN BY.. -26% Containers < 3,000 teu STEADY AT. -2% Other Dry > 5,000 dwt UP BY. 23% Offshore & Others UP BY. 98% Cruise Vessels UP BY. 238% Ro-Ro Ferries UP BY. 5% Total Special Vessels UP BY. 15% Total Contracting Recently Confirmed Shipbuilding Contracts Date Type Dwt Unit Delivery Builder Hull No. $m. Owner Oct-04 Aframax 110, Mitsui S.B Unknown Owner Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handy Chem 45, Sevmash SMP Odfjell ASA Oct-04 Handysize 22, Bach Dang S/Y Vinalines Oct-04 Handysize 22, Bach Dang S/Y Vinalines Oct-04 Handysize 22, Bach Dang S/Y Vinalines Oct-04 Handysize 22, Bach Dang S/Y Vinalines Oct-04 Sub-Panamx 32,000 2,750 TEU Zhou Shan S/Y MPC Steamship Oct-04 Sub-Panamx 32,000 2,750 TEU Zhou Shan S/Y MPC Steamship Oct-04 Ro-Ro > 5K DWT 9, Fincantieri Finnlines Plc Oct-04 Ro-Ro > 5K DWT 9, Fincantieri Finnlines Plc Oct-04 Other Dry > 5K DWT 10, Higaki Zosen 581 Unknown Owner Oct-04 Other Dry > 5K DWT 10, Higaki Zosen 585 Unknown Owner Oct-04 Offshore 4,500 3,485 GT Aker Brattvaag Prisco Swire Offsh. Oct-04 Offshore 4,500 3,485 GT Aker Brattvaag Prisco Swire Offsh. Oct-04 Offshore 4,500 3,485 GT Aker Brattvaag Prisco Swire Offsh. Oct-04 Offshore 2,500 2,000 GT Aker Brattvaag Remoy Shipping Oct* This Year v. Last All Vessels Types DOWN BY.. -8% Clarkson Research Studies Page 5 Million GT Ordering Trends Million GT Ordering Trends Million GT Ordering Trends N.B. Details of special cargo ships orderbook, in terms of special units of measurement e.g. cbm, teu, '000 cuft. etc. may be found in the blue centre pages. - denotes figure unavailable.

6 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Quarterly Deliveries (DWT) Tankers Bulkers Gas Container Other Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Deliveries by Vessel Type Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Source: Clarkson Research Studies Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Summary October 2004 Tankers The number of reported deliveries during October was extremely low across all sectors with just eight crude and three chemical tankers totalling 0.7m dwt leaving the yards. When you compare this to the 29 crude and 14 chemical tankers totalling 2.2m dwt delivered last month you can see just how little activity there was. Kyoei Tanker Co. of Japan took delivery of the 300,000 dwt VLCC KAI-EI from I.H.I. whilst Arcadia Ship Management received the 159,000 dwt Suezmax vessel AEGEAN DIGNITY from Hyundai H.I. Dry Bulk Carriers Delivery of bulkers was similarly sluggish, just five vessels of 0.4m dwt delivered compared to 29 vessels of 2.0m dwt during September. Of these, one was a Capesize, three were Handymax and one Handysize. It is difficult to know why there were so few deliveries last month, but it could be that there were many more which have not been reported yet, so these figures may well be higher by next month. Bulk Vessel Deliveries No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Bulkers > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Deliveries 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Deliveries No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Total No. end m.cgt, end: m. DWT, end: Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Delivery Trends 2003 Oct* 2003 Oct* Oct* All Vessels Types N.B. Specialised ships deliveries in terms of other units of measurement (e.g. cbm, teu) are in the blue centre pages. * denotes data for year to date. Deliveries are those reported Clarkson Research Studies Page 6

7 Bulk Vessel Deliveries Deliveries by Vessel Type Type Vessel Name Flag Dwt Unit Delivery Builder Owner VLCC Kai-ei PA. 300,000 Sep 2004 I.H.I. Kyoei Tanker Co. Suezmax Aegean Dignity GR. 159,000 Oct 2004 Hyundai H.I. Arcadia Shipmngt. Aframax Stavanger Viking NIS 105,200 Oct 2004 Sumitomo H.I. DSD Shipping A/S Handy Prod Jag Pahel IN. 45,000 Oct 2004 Hanjin H.I. Great Eastern Shpg. Handy Prod Seashark GE. 32,310 Oct 2004 Lindenau German Tanker Shpg. Handy Prod Jeanette M.I. 46,000 Oct 2004 Hyundai Mipo OMI Marine Services Small/Spec Sichem Palace SG. 8,807 Sep 2004 Usuki Zosensho Eitzen (Singapore) VLGC LPG Polar Viking NIS 45,000 60,000 cbm Oct 2004 Hyundai H.I. Yara International <8K cu.m. LPG Shunho Maru JA. 1,405 1,830 cbm Jun 2004 Shitanoe Zosen Hikari Marine Handymax Seaboss GR. 55,500 Oct 2004 Nantong S.B. Thenamaris (Mgmt.) Handymax Angela PA. 52,300 Oct 2004 Tsuneishi Cebu Portline S.A. Handymax Rainbow GR. 52,000 Sep 2004 I.H.I. A.M. Nomikos Post Panamax Monte Olivia GE. 64,730 5,552 TEU Oct 2004 Daewoo S.B. Hamburg-Sud. Post Panamax CMA CGM Verdi FR. 65,800 5,770 TEU Oct 2004 Samsung S.B. CMA-CGM Sub-Panamx Cabo Prior LI. 33,900 2,478 TEU Oct 2004 Aker Ostsee Hartmann Schiff. Sub-Panamx Theodor Storm AT. 30,700 2,512 TEU Oct 2004 Jurong S/Yard Karl Schluter MPP > 5K DWT Nadja AT. 10,500 Oct 2004 Damen Shipyards Intersee Schiff. MPP > 5K DWT BBC Ontario AT. 13,000 Oct 2004 Qingshan S.Y. Beluga Shpg. GmbH. MPP < 5K DWT Muhlenau AT. 3,680 Oct 2004 SLKB Komarno Erwin Strahlmann MPP < 5K DWT BBC Aramis AT. 3,490 Oct 2004 SLKB Komarno Erwin Strahlmann PCC > 5K DWT Morning Calm PA. 21,300 Oct 2004 Stocznia Gdynia Ray Shipping Other Dry < 5K DWT Ulus Prime MA. 3,800 Sep 2004 Ceksan Shipyard Albros Denizcilik Offshore Pacific Patriot SG. 1,200 1,184 GT Oct 2004 Labroy S.B. Swire Pacific Oct* VLCC > 200, Suezmax , Aframax , Panamax 60-80, Products 10-60, Chemical 10-60, Specialised 10-60, Tankers > 10, Tankers < 10, Capesize > 80, Panamax 60-80, Handymax 40-60, Handysize 10-40, Dry Bulk > 10, Combos > 10, Total Bulk Vessels Special Vessel Deliveries Oct* LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Reefers Containers > 3,000 teu Containers < 3,000 teu Other Dry > 5,000 dwt Offshore & Others Cruise Vessels Ro-Ro Ferries Total Special Vessels Total Deliveries Recent Shipbuilding Deliveries Million GT Million GT Million GT Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Delivery Trends Oct* All Vessels Types N.B. Specialised ships deliveries in terms of other units of measurement (e.g. cbm, teu) are in the blue centre pages. * denotes data for year to date. Deliveries are those reported Clarkson Research Studies Page 7

8 $m Bulk Vessel Prices Tanker Newbuilding Prices Shipbuilding Price Trends Price Developments Summary October 2004 Continued imbalance between supply and demand is causing newbuild prices to rise steadily month-bymonth, and October was no exception. The bulk vessel newbuilding price index rose to by the end of October, the highest level since October This is definitely a seller s market at the moment as demand for all types and sizes of vessels is extremely high, but many yards orderbooks are full through to 2008 deliveries. We do not anticipate this to change any time soon, as the degree of tightness means that it only needs very thin demand to keep prices rising. Further price increases can be expected in the near future. VLCC prices continue to show the biggest price hikes due to the phenomenal rates being earned. By the end of October it was not unusual for prices upwards of $200,000/day on some routes. We are now quoting $105m for a VLCC, an increase of 46.9% from the end of 2003 and $5m more than last month. Newbuild prices were up across all other tanker sectors with Suezmax and Panamax sizes quoted at $4m more than in September, Aframaxes up by $3.5 and Handys up by $2m. The price of gas carriers also rose on the back of the boom in LNG carrier ordering. Price $ million, end Price Trend Against a Oct* Year Ago Is VLCC 300,000 dwt STRONGER % Suezmax 150,000 dwt STRONGER % Aframax 110,000 dwt STRONGER % Panamax 70,000 dwt STRONGER % Handy 47,000 dwt STRONGER % Capesize 170,000 dwt STRONGER % Panamax 75,000 dwt STRONGER % Handymax 51,000 dwt STRONGER % Handysize 30,000 dwt STRONGER % Price Index STRONGER % % change -2% -15% -4% 7% -5% -3% 12% 23% Other Vessel Prices VLCC Aframax Handy Suezmax Panamax Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Source: Clarkson Research Studies Price $ million, end Price Trend Against a Oct* Year Ago Is LNG 138,000 m STRONG % LPG 78,000 m STRONGER % Container 725 teu STRONG % Container 1,000 teu STRONGER % Container 1,700 teu STRONGER % Container 2,000 teu STRONG % Container 2,750 teu STRONGER % Container 3,500 teu STRONGER % Container 4,600 teu STRONGER % Container 6,200 teu STRONGER % Ro-Ro 1,2-1,300 Lm STRONGER % Ro-Ro 2,3-2,700 Lm STRONG % Sources: Clarksons. Ro-Ro prices for 1997 are averages not end year. All historial data refers to standard vessel sizes published at the time. The dwt sizes quoted refer to the latest spec. in that vessel sector, and new vessel sizes are introduced from time to time. Tanker and Capesize prices are for double-hull vessels; VLCCs from 1992, Suezmax & Aframax from Panamax and Handy Tankers are coated. Price data assumes a "European spec", with 10/10/10/70% payments, basis "first class competitive yards". Price data latest available at time of press. NB Price Index is value at the end of the previous month. Clarkson Research Studies Page 8

9 Shipbuilding Investment & Key Ratios Investment in Bulk Vessels ($bn.) Total Container Total Gas Total Bulk Carriers Total Tankers Source: Clarkson Research Studies Investment Scene This Month Newbuilding Investment Summary October 2004 Investment in new ships overtook the 2003 total during October reaching $60.6 billion, $0.8 billion more than last year. From looking at the graph it is evident that gas carrier investment is the main difference between this year and last, with $12.4 billion spent as of end-october 2004 compared to $2.9 billion in It may seem curious to some that owners are prepared to invest so much money in newbuildings when prices are at near-record levels. It is true that rates have been sky-high in 2004 (and still rising), but with many yards not being able to deliver until 2008 there is a risk that all these expensive ships will hit the water at a time when rates have fallen back to more normal, or even depressed levels. However, with so much cash floating around as a result of the incredible earnings made this year, many owners find it more desirable to plough the money back into new investments in order to stay in the game rather than let the money sit in banks. Second hand tanker prices rose during October on the backs of increasing freight rates with Panamaxes proving particularly hot, increasing to 103% the cost of a newbuild Investment Trends Oct VLCC > 200, UP BY. 8.1% Suezmax , DOWN BY % Aframax , DOWN BY % Panamax 60-80, STEADY. 2.7% Handy 10-60, UP BY. 31.0% Total Tankers UP BY. 6.7% Capesize > 80, UP BY. 28.3% Panamax 60-80, DOWN BY % Handymax 40-60, DOWN BY % Handysize 10-40, STEADY. -2.3% Total Bulk Carriers STEADY. -2.1% LNG UP BY % LPG > 60,000m³ UP BY. 126% Container > 3,000 teu DOWN BY % Container 1-3,000 teu UP BY. 28.0% Container < 1,000 teu DOWN BY % Total Specialised UP BY. 43.5% Total UP BY. 21.7% % Change 2% -32% 15% 82% -26% -8% 163% Price Ratios for Investors Value $ billion Price Ratios (Secondhand/Newbuilding) Oct v. End last Year VLCC 5 Yr. Old 71% 78% 69% 77% 93% 83% 85% 91% 97% UP BY. 6.9% Suezmax 5 Yr. Old 83% 85% 83% 82% 93% 84% 87% 91% 103% UP BY. 12.8% Aframax 5 Yr. Old 85% 88% 68% 79% 96% 83% 83% 87% 97% UP BY. 12.3% Panamax 5 Yr. Old n/a 88% 81% 79% 85% 73% 64% 75% 83% UP BY. 11.1% Handy 5 Yr. Old 78% 86% 81% 77% 83% 78% 72% 81% 82% STEADY. 2.3% Tanker Average 79% 85% 76% 79% 90% 80% 78% 85% 93% UP BY. 9.1% Capesize 5 Yr. Old 72% 85% 78% 83% 75% 75% 80% 92% 90% STEADY. -1.3% Panamax 5 Yr. Old 74% 81% 70% 76% 71% 68% 79% 104% 100% STEADY. -3.6% Handymax 5 Yr. Old 82% 80% 69% 80% 74% 72% 75% 83% 93% UP BY. 11.7% Handysize 5 Yr. Old 68% 76% 65% 74% 80% 76% 75% 81% 87% UP BY. 8.5% Bulk Carrier Average 74% 81% 71% 78% 75% 73% 77% 90% 93% STEADY. 3.3% NB: The SH/NB ratios have been altered as above. The end 2001 figures have been adjusted in the same manner and the percentage change represents the gain/loss over the end 2001 value. Clarkson Research Studies Page 9 Investment Trends This Year Price Ratio Trends

10 Orderbook by Country/Region Global Orderbook 2004 by cgt Asian Orderbook 2004 by cgt P.R. China 13.4% Other Asia 3.3% Europe 16.4% Others 1.0% South Korea 46.0% P.R. China 16.2% Japan 33.7% Other Asia 4.0% South Korea 38.0% Japan 27.9% Source (all graphs): Clarkson Research Studies Spain 3% European Orderbook 2004 by cgt Poland 15% Italy 16% Croatia 11% Germany 19% Other Europe 36% Major Shipbuilders Million DWT For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 10

11 Major Shipbuilders Orderbook by Country/Region Million CGT For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL Major Shipbuilders Numbers of Vessels For Delivery in: * Japan South Korea Taiwan P.R. China Other Asia TOTAL ASIA Germany Denmark France Italy Netherlands Spain Finland Norway Turkey Poland Ukraine Croatia Other Europe TOTAL EUROPE Brazil USA Others TOTAL OTHERS GLOBAL TOTAL *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 11

12 Contracting by Country/Region Chemical 2% Container 34% Chinese Contracts in 2004 (GT) Bulk 22% European Contracts in 2004 (GT) Chemical 6% Tanker 36% Other Dry 3% Tanker 17% Other Dry 21% Container 34% Others 3% Others 3% Pass/ Cruise 19% Summary October 2004 China The Chinese shipbuilding industry continues to develop and now accounts for 13.4% of the global orderbook by CGT. Chinese orders are down by 7.8% in deadweight terms from 2003 and 5.7% in numbers of vessels, but up by 0.8% in CGT terms, indicating that the yards are starting to build more complex ship types. Compared to this time last year Chinese yards are taking less orders for bulkers (22% of all orders this year by CGT compared to 43% at this time last year) and more orders for containerships (34% this year compared to 13% last). Hudong yard in Shanghai recently took the first ever Chinese orders for LNG carriers, 2x147,000 CBM vessels from China LNG Ship Mngt. Europe European contracting continues to benefit from the tight availability in the Far East and the recent trend for ordering smaller types of vessels. More vessels have been ordered already from European yards in 2004 than in the whole of 2003, and in CGT terms orders are up by 69.4% on an annualised basis. A recent slew of cruise ship orders has boosted a small number of European yards, especially in Finland and Italy where orders are up by over 100% from last year. With European yards struggling to remain competitive against lower costs in Asia it is vital that orders for ship types in which they are particularly strong continue to be placed specifically for cruise ships, passenger ferries, small containerships and chemical tankers. Major Shipbuilders Million DWT Trends This Year vs. Last Year * Japan DOWN BY -28.2% South Korea DOWN BY -15.2% Taiwan DOWN BY -38.3% P.R. China DOWN BY -7.8% Other Asia UP BY % TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -18.1% Germany DOWN BY -20.1% Denmark UP BY. 14.3% France UP BY. 16.9% Italy UP BY % Netherlands UP BY. 57.9% Spain UP BY. 33.2% Finland UP BY % Norway UP BY % Turkey UP BY. 63.3% Poland STEADY. 5.0% Ukraine UP BY. Croatia UP BY % Other Europe UP BY % TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 43.6% Brazil DOWN BY -70.5% USA UP BY. 45.1% Others DOWN BY -86.2% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -48.8% GLOBAL TOTAL DOWN BY -14.8% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 12

13 Major Shipbuilders Contracting by Country/Region Million CGT Trends This Year % * Japan DOWN BY -23.4% South Korea STEADY. 1.4% Taiwan DOWN BY -26.5% P.R. China STEADY. 0.8% Other Asia UP BY. 96.2% TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -7.1% Germany UP BY. 13.8% Denmark UP BY. 19.3% France UP BY % Italy UP BY % Netherlands UP BY. 75.9% Spain UP BY % Finland UP BY % Norway UP BY % Turkey UP BY. 43.1% Poland UP BY. 59.5% Ukraine UP BY. Croatia UP BY. 92.7% Other Europe UP BY. 89.2% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 69.4% Brazil DOWN BY -74.9% USA UP BY. 26.7% Others UP BY % TOTAL OTHERS UP BY. 18.8% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 2.0% Major Shipbuilders Number of Vessels * Trends This Year % Japan DOWN BY -27.6% South Korea STEADY. -2.5% Taiwan DOWN BY -6.3% P.R. China DOWN BY -5.7% Other Asia UP BY. 54.0% TOTAL ASIA DOWN BY -10.9% Germany STEADY. -3.4% Denmark DOWN BY -20.0% France UP BY % Italy UP BY. 20.0% Netherlands UP BY. 60.0% Spain UP BY. 46.7% Finland UP BY % Norway UP BY % Turkey UP BY. 29.8% Poland UP BY. 9.4% Ukraine UP BY. Croatia UP BY. 64.4% Other Europe UP BY. 31.5% TOTAL EUROPE UP BY. 35.0% Brazil DOWN BY -76.0% USA UP BY. 20.0% Others UP BY. 20.0% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -18.9% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. -3.3% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 13

14 Deliveries by Country/Region m.cgt Scheduled Output by Region Other Europe China S Korea Japan Summary October vessel of 2.03m dwt are scheduled for delivery from European yards in the remainder of No less than 25 vessel types are represented amongst this total including 37 multi-purpose vessels of 0.24m dwt, 39 chemical and specialised tankers of 0.37m dwt and 21 containerships of 0.55m dwt. The containership deliveries include 2x4,500 TEU post-panamax ships from the Odense Lindo yard in Denmark and two cruise ships from Fincantieri and Sestri-Cantiere in Italy of 110,000 and 101,350 GT respectively. Deliveries from European yards are slightly down from 2003 levels, and the likelihood is that this trend will continue despite the spate of recent orders. This is indicative of the general decline in European shipbuilding in the face of stiff competition from Asia m. CGT Europe Output Source: Clarkson Research Studies Source: Clarkson Research Studies Major Shipbuilders Million DWT Trends This Year vs. Last Year * Japan UP BY. 9.3% South Korea STEADY. -0.3% Taiwan DOWN BY -19.9% P.R. China UP BY. 18.5% Other Asia DOWN BY -7.4% TOTAL ASIA UP BY. 5.1% Germany DOWN BY -10.9% Denmark DOWN BY -40.3% France DOWN BY -64.8% Italy DOWN BY -35.3% Netherlands UP BY. 22.6% Spain DOWN BY -41.6% Finland STEADY. 2.6% Norway DOWN BY -81.6% Turkey DOWN BY -6.2% Poland UP BY. 28.6% Ukraine Croatia UP BY. 77.1% Other Europe UP BY. 7.5% TOTAL EUROPE STEADY. -3.9% Brazil DOWN BY -7% USA UP BY. 54.2% Others DOWN BY -99.1% TOTAL OTHERS UP BY. 36.2% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 4.7% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 14

15 Major Shipbuilders Deliveries by Country/Region Million CGT Trends This Year % * Japan UP BY. 10.3% South Korea UP BY. 13.4% Taiwan UP BY. 6.7% P.R. China DOWN BY -6.3% Other Asia DOWN BY -10.7% TOTAL ASIA UP BY. 8.7% Germany DOWN BY -6.3% Denmark DOWN BY -42.2% France DOWN BY -76.6% Italy DOWN BY -33.6% Netherlands DOWN BY -31.5% Spain DOWN BY -11.9% Finland DOWN BY -29.7% Norway DOWN BY -69.2% Turkey UP BY. 17.6% Poland UP BY. 82.5% Ukraine Croatia UP BY. 40.1% Other Europe STEADY. -4.8% TOTAL EUROPE DOWN BY -18.3% Brazil UP BY. 8.0% USA DOWN BY -28.0% Others DOWN BY -76.2% TOTAL OTHERS DOWN BY -31.8% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 2.2% Major Shipbuilders Number of Vessels Trends This Year % * Japan UP BY. 10.2% South Korea UP BY. 15.8% Taiwan STEADY. 1.5% P.R. China DOWN BY -10.2% Other Asia DOWN BY -15.3% TOTAL ASIA UP BY. 6.6% Germany DOWN BY -8.2% Denmark DOWN BY -52.0% France DOWN BY -40.0% Italy DOWN BY -16.0% Netherlands STEADY. 1.5% Spain DOWN BY -24.2% Finland UP BY. 20.0% Norway DOWN BY -62.7% Turkey UP BY. 29.6% Poland UP BY. 40.0% Ukraine Croatia UP BY. 50.0% Other Europe DOWN BY -6.3% TOTAL EUROPE DOWN BY -8.9% Brazil STEADY. 2.9% USA UP BY. 5.6% Others DOWN BY -48.6% TOTAL OTHERS STEADY. -4.6% GLOBAL TOTAL STEADY. 2.3% *after a year indicates data are the latest year to date figures. Clarkson Research Studies Page 15