An Updated Economic Base Data Set for North Dakota
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1 37'884 A Agricultural Economics Statistical Series No. 55 May 1995 An Updated Economic Base Data Set for North Dakota Randal C. Coon and F. Larry Leistritz WAITE MEMORIAL BOOK COLLECTION DEPT. OF APPLIED ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA 1994 BUFORD AVE.-232 COB ST. PAUL MN U.S.A..', Department of Agricultural Economics Agricultural Experiment Station North Dakota State University Fargo, ND
2 Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank their colleagues in the Department of Agricultural Economics for their helpful reviews and comments. Special thanks are extended to Charlene Lucken for editorial assistance and to Shelly Swandal for document preparation. The authors assume responsibility for any errors of omission, logic, or otherwise.
3 Table of Contents List of Tables Page Introduction References
4 LIST OF TABLES 1 Sales for Final Demand, by Eonomic Sector, North Dakota, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 1, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 2, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 3, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 4, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 5, Million Dollars Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 6, Million Dollars (current dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 7, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 8, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by The Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 1, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 2, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 3, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 4, Mllion Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 5, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), ii
5 List of Tables (continued) 16 Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 6, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Dakota Region 7, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volumes of Economic Sectors Estimated by the Input-Output Model, North Ddakota Region 8, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 1, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 2, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 3, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 4, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 5, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 6, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 7, Employment by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 8, Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 1 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Rregion 2 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 3 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 4 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 5 (Current Dollars), iii
6 List of Tables (continued) 34 Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 6 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 7 (Current Dollars), Gross Business Volume to Employment (Productivity) Ratios, by Economic Sector, North Dakota Region 8 (Current Dollars), Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 1, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 2, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 3, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 4, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Regi?n 5, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 6, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 7, North Dakota, Estimates of Personal Income and Differences in Estimates, Region 8, North Dakota, Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counites and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Ccurrent Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), iv
7 List of Tables (continued) 49 Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Economic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), Sales for Final Demand, by Eeconomic Sector, for North Dakota Counties and Regions, Million Dollars (Current Dollars), : Gross domestic product implicit price deflators for 1993 base Year, v
8 An Update of North Dakota's Economic Base Data Randal C. Coon and F. Larry Leistritz The North Dakota Input-Output model was developed for the purpose of analyzing the state's economy. This model employs the theory that all goods and services produced within the state and exported, return "new" money to the state's economy. These revenues resulting from agriculture, energy, manufacturing, tourism, and federal activities, comprise the state's economic base (also called basic economic activity and sales for final demand). For a detailed description of the theory used to develop the model and a complete history of the North Dakota Input-Output model, see Coon et al The purpose of this report is to document and reference the state's economic base data. Economic base data have provided the basis for a wide range of economic analyses (for example, see Coon and Leistritz 1987; Coon and Leistritz 1989; Leistritz and Coon 1991; Coon, Leistritz, and Majchrowicz 1992; and Leistritz, Coon, and Thompson 1993). Often, however, these data remain unpublished until a major report possessing analysis requiring this information is published, although the North Dakota data bases are updated annually. In this document,.north Dakota economic base data have been assembled for the period 1958 to The last year data were available was Sales for final demand in current year dollars for North Dakota and the eight state planning regions are presented in Tables 1-9. Applying the sales to final demand to the input-output interdependence coefficients (multipliers) yields estimates of business activity for each of the state's previously defined 17 economic sectors. Gross business volumes for the state and the eight regions are presented in Tables Estimated employment for each of the 17 sectors for the state and region (Tables 19-27) can be divided into the respective gross business volumes to obtain gross business volume to employment ratios, often referred to as productivity ratios. Productivity ratios are the number of 'Research specialist and professor, respectively, Department of Agricultural Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo.
9 dollars that must be generated in each sector to create one more job in that sector. Tables present the productivity ratios for the state and the eight regions. Accuracy of the North Dakota Input-Output model has been analyzed, using a variety of statistical techniques for comparing U.S. Department of Commerce personal income estimates with those generated by the model. These comparisons for the state and the eight regions are presented in Tables Often the economic analysis of North Dakota's economy over the time frame of the data base ( ) is enhanced by using constant dollar values. Constant dollar values essentially convert the economic values for all years in terms of a dollar's worth in a base year. For deflating the North Dakota economic base data the Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators (GDP IPD) are used. Table 46 presents the GDP IPD for in terms of 1992 dollars, (i.e., 1992 base). For this report, only the current (nominal) dollar value data base tables are presented; but if the constant dollar value tables were required, the information presented in this report could be used to calculate them. 2
10 References Coon, Randal C., F. Larry Leistritz, Thor A. Hertsgaard, and Arlen G. Leholm The North Dakota Input-Output Model: A Tool for Analyzing Economic Linkages. Agricultural Economics Report No Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C. and F. Larry Leistritz The North Dakota Economy: Estimating Recent Changes And Projecting Future Trends In the Economic Base. Agricultural Economics Statistical Series Report No. 41. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C. and F. Larry Leistritz The North Dakota Economy In 1988: Historic Economic Base, Recent Changes, and Projected Future Trends. Agricultural Economics Statistical Series Report No. 45. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C. and F. Larry Leistritz An Update of North Dakota's Economic Base Data. Agricultural Economics Statistical Series No. 54. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C. and F. Larry Leistritz North Dakota Microcomputer Economic Demographic Assessment Model (MEDAM): User's Guide and Technical Description. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C., F. Larry Leistritz, and Thor A. Hertsgaard North Dakota Input-Output Economic Projection Model: Documentation and User's Guide, Version No Agricultural Economics Software Series No. 4. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Coon, Randal C., F. Larry Leistritz, and T. Alexander Majchrowicz The Role of Agriculture in the North Dakota Economy. Agricultural Economics Statistical Series Report No. 50. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Leistritz, F. Larry and Randal C. Coon The Changing Composition of North Dakota's Economic Base. Agricultural Economics Statistical Series Report No. 48. Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. Leistritz, F. Larry, Randal C. Coon, and JoAnn M. Thompson The Economic Base of North Dakota Counties. Agricultural Economics Miscellaneous Report No Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. U.S. Department of Commerce Survey of Current Business (various issues). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Department of Commerce Personal Income By Major Sources. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. 3
11 TABLE 1. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), ( ll \2) (4 l (7) (8) (10) (12) (14) ( 15) (16) (17) Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l l, , , , , , , , l , l ,001.l , , l 3, , , , , , , , , , l , , , , , , , , , l , , , B , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Bl. 4 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , B 2, B, , , llo. 0 9, , ,333.l ,546.0
12 TABLE 2. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 1' MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS I, ( l) (2) (41 (7) (8) (10) (12) ( 14) ( 15 I I 16 I I 1 71 Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Yea< Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total U l B l l l B
13 TABLE 3, SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 2, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), ( 1) (2) (4) (7) ( 8) (10) ( 121 ( 14) 115) I 16 I I 1 71 Ag Ag Ag Pree & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l l , , , ' , l ' 2 13.l , , , , , , , , , , , , ,497
14 TABLE 4. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 3' MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), ( 1) 12 I (4) (7) (8) ( 1 o I ( 12) (14) ( 15) (16) ( 1 7) Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l ll l ll l 4 ll ll l
15 TABLE 5 SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 4, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), (11 \21 (41 (7) (8) ( 1 o I 1121 (14) (15) (16) I 17) Ag Ag Ag Pree & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l l l l l O'.l l l , , , , , , , , , ,354
16 TABLE 6. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 5, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS!, ( 1) ( 21 (4) 171 (8) ( 10) ( 12) ( 14) ( 15) ( 16) ( 17) Ag Aq Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l , , , , , , , , l, , ,411
17 TABLE 7. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 6, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), ( 11 (2) (4) (7) ( 8) ( 10 I (12) (14) ( 15) ( 16) ( 1 7) Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total o I-' l o , , ,099
18 TABLE 8. SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 7, MILLION DOLLARS I CURRENT DOLLARS), ( l) 121 I 41 I 7) (8) (101 (12) 1141 (151 I 16 I (17) Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total l l l l l l , l , , l , l , l l , l , l 1, , , , , l , l , ,526.0
19 TABLE 9 SALES FOR FINAL DEMAND, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 8, MILLION DOLLARS (CURRENT DOLLARS), I 11 (21 (4) (7) (8) (10) (12) (14) (15) (16) (17) Ag Ag Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Coal Coal Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Cons tr Misc Mfg Trade Pers Serv Households Mining Conversion Exp/Ext Refining Total I-' tv l , , , ,
20 TABLE 10. GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA, MILLION DOLLARS!CURRENT DOLLARSi, Year I 1 I Ag Lvstk 121 Ag Crops I 3 I Nonmetallic Mining 141 Const I 51 Trans I 61 Comm & Pub Util 171 Ag Pree & Misc Mfg ( 8) Retail Trade (9) FIRE 1101 Bus & Pers Service (111 Prof & Soc Service 1131 Govt 1141 Coal Mining ( 121 Households Thermal Electric Generation I 15 I 116) Pet Exp/Ext 1171 Pet Refining Total l ' l l 725 ' ' , '4 942 l,011 l, '6 '1 'Q '0 '3 ' ' 607' 3,436 3,288 3,437 4, ' 4 840' ' l 1,010 l,14 1, l ' l ,353 l,521 1,470 1,662 1, '7 137' l 1 1 l '4 ' '7 4,476 4,702 4,883 5,457 5, , l ' ' ' '2 1,169 1, ,460 1,485 1, ' ' l 110 ' ' l,684 1,89 2,117 2,156 2, l l '4 16.l 17' 1 5,531 6,254 6,94 7,016 8, ,330 2,664 2, 110 l,834 1, ' l,023 1,164 1,098 1,340 1,236 2,662 2,974 2,773 2,641 2, l ' l ,674 4,104 4,009 3,86 3, , l ' '5 133 ' ' ,683 14, ,184 12,841 12, l,186 1,328 1,185 1,157 2,296 2,510 2,612 3, , l l 1,388 1,660 l,800 1,904.l 1,736 3,126 3,533 3, ,626 4, ' '2 294.l ,481 5,187 5,930 6,899 6, l ,179 l, ,977 17,329 19,618 23, , ,279 1,309 l,349 1,301 1,454 3,530 3,253 3,562 3, , ' , ,897 1,973 1,923 2, , ,847 5,152 4,910 5,058 l,019 1,015 1,078 1,028 l, ' ' 2 7,223 7,313 7,713 7,425 7, ' ' ' 1 113' , ,965 25,250 23,678 24, ,552 1,288 1,547 1,428 1,559 l, ,574 2,921 3,366 3, , , ' ,193.l ,242 2, ,468 2,521 5,384.l 5,063 5,733 5,818 6,"168'1 6,708 1,139. 1,071 1,210.l 1,222 1,356 1, ,104 7,868.l 8,875 8,930 9,854 10, l ' l ' ' 8 116' 1 26,374.l 24, l 27, ,949 31,794
21 TABLE 11 GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 1, MILLION DOLLARS!CURRENT DOLLARS I, I 11( ( 2) 13 l I 4 l 15) (6) (71 (8 I \ 91 I 10) (11) I 1141 Thermal- 116 I 117 I Ag Ag Nonmetallic Comm&. Ag Pree & Retail Bus & Pers Prof & Soc House- Coal Electric Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Mining Const Trans Pub Util Misc Mfg Trade FIRE Service Service holds Govt Mining Generation Exp/Ext Refining Total , ,4 l, so o.s S '6 0 9 l, ll.l 4, s l, 3 6 ' Sl , 7 1 ' S , , 1, , l, B 32, 2. l ,l 1 9.S , 4 14.B los, S l, 0 ls, , B S , S lso S B S3.B ls B , , BO I-' o o SS. 7 13S i s 49, o , , l, ,1 21.l S , l , , , 7 149, , ,373, ,7 548, , o 4, 6 93, 7 13.B S7. o 79. B , ,192, S o , B , o , , 3 l, o , SS l, ' ,56S ,l , , ,4 64, , 4 467,0 39, , '1. B sos 42 o s 33,4 1, , 3 36, ) ,967
22 TABLE 12 GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 2, MILLION DOLLARS I CURRENT DOLLARS I, I 15 I I I I 31 I I (8) I 91 I I Thermal- I 16 I I 17 I Ag Ag Nonmetallic Corrun & Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Pers Prof & Soc House- Coal Electric Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Mining Const Trans Pub Util Misc Mfg Trade FIRE Service Service holds Govt Mining Generation Exp/Ext Refining Total l o I l l , , , , , , I-' ,885. ln , , , , , , l, , l, , , , , , , , l, , , , , ' , , , , l, ,442. l , , ,986. 8
23 TABLE 13 GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 3' MILLION DOLLARS I CURRENT DOLLARS I, I 151 (1) 12) (3) (41 ( 5) I 61 (71 ( I 10 I 1111 I 121 ( 131 (141 Thermal- 116) ( 171 Ag Ag Nonmetallic Corrun & Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Pers Prof & Soc House- Coal Electric Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Mining Const Trans Pub Util Misc Mfg Trade FIRE Service Service holds Govt Mining Generation Exp/Ext Refining Total l l l 351. l o l l l l 20.l l l, , l 35 1,301 I-' ,142 CJ\ , l , , l , l , l l,814.l , so , o l , so , , , , l , l ,371.l ! , ,370
24 TABLE 14 GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 4' MILLION DOLLARS I CURRENT DOLLARS I, I 15 I I 11 ( 21 I 3 I I 4 I 15 I I 6 I 17 I I 8 I 191 I I ) 1141 Thermal- I Ag Ag Nonmetallic Corron & Ag Proc & Retail Bus & Pers Prof & Soc House- Coal Electric Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Mining Const Trans Pub Util Misc Mfg Trade FIRE Service Service holds Govt Mining Generation Exp/Ext Refining Total o l l l 16.o l l B l l l l l, l l, B l, , , , I-' l , J l , , , l , , , , , l, ' l, , S l , , l, , l, l , , , ' , , l, , , OS> l , ' , , ,615. 7
25 TABLE 15 GROSS BUSINESS VOLUMES OF ECONOMIC SECTORS ESTIMATED BY THE INPUT-OUT MODEL, NORTH DAKOTA REGION 5, MILLION DOLLARS I CURRENT DOLLARS I, ( 151 {l) 12 I (3 I \4) (5 I (6) (7) (8) ( 91 ( 10 I (111 ( 121 I 13 I I 14 I Thermal- ( 16) ( l 7; Ag Ag Nonmetallic Conun & Ag Pree & Retail Bus & Pers Prof & Soc House~ Coal Electric Pet Pet Year Lvstk Crops Mining Const Trans Pub Util Misc Mfg Trade FIRE Service Service holds Govt Mining Generation Exp/Ext Refining Total l , , , , , 3 98,5 1 24, ,3 18, , , , 9 17, , , , l , , o l , , , , , o , , , , o , , , , ,9 65 8, , , , , ,7 2,098 I-' , , ,5 44, ,260,0 OJ , ,9 2, , , , , , , 4 3, , ,012 90, 6 3, , , , , , , , , ,3 1, , ,6 BO. 4 1, , , , , , , , , 94,8 93 1,432, ,790.l ,8 104, , ,7 87,3 87 1,338, ,313, , , , o 95,9 1, , , , , ,l 16, ,9 1,lH ,0 1, ,3 5, , , ,960
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