Big-time Implications of SmartDrivingCars ( Trucks & Buses)
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1 Big-time Implications of SmartDrivingCars ( Trucks & Buses) by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, ORFE (Operations Research & Financial Engineering) Director, CARTS (Consortium for Automated Road Transportation Safety) Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at ITS World COngress October 31, 2017 Montreal, PQ
2 Making Sure We Are Using the Same Terminology Lots of confusion Connected ; Autonomous, Automated, 4 NHTSA Levels 5 SAE Levels Only 3 kinds: Classified by their Business Case, Not Technology Safe-Driving Cars (Trucks or Buses) Don t Crash, Stay in their lane and keep us from mis-behaving Always on Automated Emergency Braking, Lane Centering & and Speed Limiting Delivers: Safety Insurance Can/Should Promote Wide-spread Adoption w/o Government Mandate Lexus and Toyota Will Make Automated Braking Standard on Nearly Every Model and Trim Level by End of 2017
3 Making Sure We Are Using the Same Terminology Lots of confusion Connected ; Autonomous, Automated, 4 NHTSA Levels 5 SAE Levels Only 3 kinds: Safe-Driving Cars (Trucks or Buses) Always on Automated Emergency Braking, Lane Centering & Speed Limiting Delivers: Safety Needs Insurance to Promote Wide-spread Adoption w/o Government Mandate Self-Driving Cars (Trucks or Buses) Safe-Driving + Ability to take Hands-Off Wheel and/or Feet-Off Pedals On Some Stretches of Some Roads and Some Times Delivers: User Convenience + some Environmental Benefits New Chrome & Fins. Auto companies & Car dealers know how to sell these
4 Making Sure We Are Using the Same Terminology Lots of confusion Connected ; Autonomous, Automated, 4 NHTSA Levels 5 SAE Levels Only 3 kinds: Safe-Driving Cars (Trucks or Buses) Always on Automated Emergency Braking & Lane Centering Delivers: Safety Needs Insurance to Promote Wide-spread Adoption w/o Government Mandate Self-Driving Cars (Trucks or Buses) Safe-Driving + Ability to take Hands-Off Wheel and/or Feet-Off Pedals On Some stretches of Some Roads and Some Times Delivers: User Convenience + some Environmental Benefits Driverless Cars (Cars, Trucks or Buses) Safe-Driving + Always: Hands-Off, Feet-Off; No Steering Wheel or Pedals Sharing Some Streets at Some Times with Conventionally-driven vehicles Delivers: Mobility for All + Substantial Environmental Benefits
5 Big-time Implications Safe-Driving Cars Safety! You don t need to take your hands off the wheel or feet off the pedals or be chauffeured to achieve safety. Insurance Either results in or be a result of Today Auto Casualty does NOT give you a discount if your car has SafeDriving Technology.» That will change! Hopefully very soon Health Care system Emergency rooms, Ambulances, Organ donor, Social Security (fewer die younger) Body shops, replacement parts (availability & production) Police & courts Technology will probably not enable you to speed run red lights, When: Soon with New Cars and accelerated with After-market.
6 Big-time Implications Self-Driving Cars 1 st and Foremost: provides Comfort & Convenience To the Driver VMT (Vehicle Miles Travelled) goes through the roof Land...Far away & cheap becomes more attractive Acceleration of sprawl Driving as an occupation becomes much more attractive Traditional auto companies sell more cars at higher profit BMW becomes the Ultimate Riding Machine And throw monkey wrenches into Driverless Cars When: Will begin to happen soon with those most interested in taking advantage of far away cheap land will be first buyers.
7 Big-time Implications Driverless Cars Affordable High-quality LoS Mobility for All VMT (Vehicle Miles Travelled) goes through the roof More people able to travel More I order to take advantage of More. Unless there is Substantial Ride-sharing. Average Vehicle Occupancy must at least Double (2x AVO) Zoning Regulations Change Moderate density becomes very attractive (a la: Transit Area Development) Removal of parking requirement makes housing more affordable. When: 4 years ago Google said in 4 years Is it like Cheap energy from Nuclear Fusion? We still have 2 months to go Affordable Package Delivery Easy in wee hours (midnight->5am) No one else using the roads When: God-send to Amazon. Who could make it happen in 4 years Why Nuclear Fusion Is Always 30 Years Away
8 Discussion! Thank You
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