The Power Grid of the Future Powering the next-generation of electric vehicles April 10. Presenter: Chris Robinson, Analyst, Lux Research

Transcription

1 The Power Grid of the Future Powering the next-generation of electric vehicles April 10 Presenter: Chris Robinson, Analyst, Lux Research

2 I need to buy a car so should it be electric? 2

3 Price per mile of range The quality and quantity of electric vehicles available today is drastically better than ever before 2011 Nissan Leaf MSRP: $32, Range: 84 miles Nissan Leaf MSRP: $29, Range: 151 miles 0 EV Range is Cheaper than Ever Source: Lux Research Automotive Battery Tracker

4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Vehicle sales (units) These low-cost vehicles with more range are resonating with consumers 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Quarterly Plug-in Vehicle Sales Source: Lux Research Automotive Battery Tracker

5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 These low-cost vehicles with more range are resonating with consumers 300, ,000 Quarterly Plug-in Vehicle Sales Quarterly 200,000 vehicle Volkswagen accelerates push into electric 150,000 sales cars with $40 billion spending plan 100,000 China moves towards banning the internal combustion engine 50,

6 but I have range anxiety 930 miles 6

7 New car sales that are plug-ins What is going to drive from a niche market to a dominant technology? 7 Survey: 85% cite lack of charging as limiting factor in buying EV For electric car owner, range anxiety gives way to charging time trauma Range anxiety powers China to invest in electric car-charging points 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% EV inflection point : % adoption 10% 1.5% adoption 0%

8 Agenda 1 How is infrastructure alleviating range anxiety today? 2 A new way of thinking about range anxiety 8

9 Solutions to range anxiety aim to quickly add energy to a vehicle Completely replacing a battery with another one filled with energy Adding energy to the battery as quickly as possible with fast-charging 9

10 Fast-charging has emerged as the technology of choice for quickly topping up range Porsche s Mission E will be the first vehicle compatible with 350 kw fast-charging = X

11 Are these solutions ideal in a future of 175 million EVs on the road? Cost Is the solution affordable to deploy? Scalability Will the solution face hurdles that prevent it from scaling? Speed How quickly can a solution add range? 11

12 At the EV tipping point in 2040, fast-charging doesn t meet most needs to alleviate range anxiety Cost of installing a 6-stall fast-charging station $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- 120 kw 350 kw 12

13 At the EV tipping point in 2040, fast-charging doesn t meet most needs to alleviate range anxiety $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Cost of installing a 6-stall fast-charging station $50,000 $- Not very affordable 120 kw 350 kw Global power demand if all chargers used (TW) 50 kw 120 kw 350 kw 2017 Global Capacity 13

14 At the EV tipping point in 2040, fast-charging doesn t meet most needs to alleviate range anxiety $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Cost of installing a 6-stall fast-charging station $50,000 $- Not very affordable 120 kw 350 kw Global power demand if all chargers used (TW) Not very scalable 50 kw 120 kw 350 kw 2017 Global Capacity Range added in ten minutes (miles) 450 Fast Not enough very fast

15 Could battery swapping be a long-term solution to longdistance EV travel? $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- Cost to install a battery swapping station 15

16 Could battery swapping be a long-term solution to longdistance EV travel? $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- Cost to install a battery swapping station Not very affordable Operating costs make scaling-up a challenge $5,500,000? Cost of buying, charging, and replacing battery packs to support 500 swaps per day for 5 years 16

17 Could battery swapping be a long-term solution to longdistance EV travel? $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- Cost to install a battery swapping station Not very affordable Operating costs make scaling-up a challenge Not very scalable $5,500,000? Cost of buying, charging, and replacing battery packs to support 500 swaps per day for 5 years Range added in five minutes (miles) Could reach parity with gasoline 17

18 Current approaches focus on adding range quickly, but are not scalable or cost effective. 18

19 Agenda 1 How is infrastructure alleviating range anxiety today? 2 A new way of thinking about range anxiety 19

20 Today, Tesla s Model S 100D offers the longest highway range with just over 350 miles of range If we can't quickly add energy during a trip, why not add more energy before leaving? 20

21 Today s EVs get me to Syracuse EVs today 350 miles 5.25 hours but how far can the EV of 2040 take me? 21

22 Building the EV of 2040 Improved Batteries The Tesla 100D becomes the 200D with no additional weight or volume 22

23 Building the EV of 2040 Improved Batteries The Tesla 100D becomes the 200D with no additional weight or volume Batteries can already exceed 400 Wh/kg Examples: 23

24 Building the EV of 2040 Improved Batteries The Tesla 100D becomes the 200D with no additional weight or volume Batteries can already exceed 400 Wh/kg Patent publications/year by battery type Examples: 1, Solid-state Lithium-sulfur Lithium-air Sodium-ion Zinc-air 24

25 Better batteries can get me just past Cleveland 700 miles 10.5 hours EVs today Better batteries 25

26 Building the EV of 2040 Vehicle Lightweighting Removing 600 kg of weight adds about 180 miles of range 26

27 Building the EV of 2040 Vehicle Lightweighting Removing 600 kg of weight adds about 180 miles of range Carbon fiber prices are falling 27

28 Building the EV of 2040 Vehicle Lightweighting Removing 600 kg of weight adds about 180 miles of range Carbon fiber prices are falling Beyond 2040, textiles could be considered for vehicles 28

29 Lightweighting can get me into Indiana 880 miles 13 hours EVs today Lighter materials Better batteries 29

30 Building the EV of 2040 Autonomy and Efficiency More efficient motors and aerodynamics working in tandem with autonomy increase efficiency by 15% 30

31 Number of drivers Building the EV of 2040 Autonomy and Efficiency More efficient motors and aerodynamics working in tandem with autonomy increase efficiency by 15% Official rating for Toyota Prius fuel efficiency: 50mpg 31 Source: Fuelly Reported fuel efficiency (mpg)

32 Number of drivers Building the EV of 2040 Autonomy and Efficiency More efficient motors and aerodynamics working in tandem with autonomy increase efficiency by 15% Official rating for Toyota Prius fuel efficiency: 50mpg 32 Source: Fuelly Reported fuel efficiency (mpg)

33 All of these technologies together can alleviate my range anxiety 1,010 miles 15.5 hours EVs today Efficiency improvements Lighter materials Better batteries 33

34 Innovation interest is high in each of these technologies 100 Solid-state batteries Y-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more Automotive Light weighting Y-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more. Self-driving cars Y-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more. 34

35 The 1,000 mile EV would have significant effects on vehicle charging needs Fast-charging and battery swapping aren t long term solutions EVs still aren t good enough, and tech innovation is still important Self-driving cars enable new business models that threaten car ownership 35

36 Thank you for joining us. Chris Robinson Lux Research, Inc. Lux Research Blog + Free Webinars Lux Spotlight Podcast Lux Research, Inc. on Soundcloud or itunes