Long term perspectives for electric transport

Transcription

1 Long term perspectives for electric transport Martine Uyterlinde - ECN Policy Studies DTU workshop, March 17,

2 Main messages Several innovations have a large long term potential for CO 2 emission reduction The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - depending on the method of electricity generation - air quality advantage is less significant The obvious competitor: a hydrogen-fuelled electric (fuel cell) vehicle

3 Policy options - road transport 1. Reduce transport demand 2. Improve driving behaviour 3. Improve vehicle efficiency 4. Use low carbon fuels supported by EU policies European car standards Renewable target Fuel quality directive Dutch policy Road pricing Promotion Ecodriving Fiscal measures Biofuels target extra innovation? Alternative drive trains and fuels Innovative technology

4 Market share The innovation cycle Pace in which phases are run through differs Commercialisation R&D Demonstration Early markets In-car EV PHEV ITS Coop ITS H2FC 2 nd gen Biofuels/SNG 1 st gen Biofuels HEV CNG Time

5 Electric and hybrid vehicles History - In the 1990s prototypes were developed; bottlenecks battery technology and range - Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) in California postponed Recent developments: - Battery technology strongly improved - Hybrid technology developed - Many initiatives (new) market actors - Batteries may provide a buffer between mismatch in energy production and consumption However - Battery still heavy and expensive - Charging time and driving range remain challenges

6 New market actors

7 x mln Scenario: from hybrid to all-electric Improved battery technology (cost, weight, range) Charging infrastructure set up Hybrid strong breakthrough via CO 2 standards in EU Further price decreases Trust in battery technology Solutions driving range (fast charging, battery swaps) Further price decreases Tot Elektrisch All-electricvervoer PHEV Hybride Benzine/Diesel/LPG Petrol/Diesel/LPG

8 CO 2 reduction: substituting electricity for gasoline CO 2 in g/km - + Baseline: efficient gasoline (2020) I. Higher efficiency of electricity (same elec. fuel mix) II. Load shifting affects elec. fuel mix III. Improving integration of renewables Total CO 2 effect can be + or

9 CO 2 emissions well to wheel In 2040: 7,5 Mton reduction (2 11) Development electricity generating mix: - Basis: from 500 g/kwh in 2020 to 300 in 2040 (RES & CCS) - Coal: 600 g/kwh - RES-E: 100 [Mton] g/kwh Other innovations EV and PHEV Historische Historical data data Referentiescenario Reference Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 33 with met g/kwh g/kwh Scenario 33 with met g/kwh

10 Impact on air quality [kton NOx] Referentiescenario Reference Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 [kton PM10] 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Reference Referentiescenario Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario

11 Comparing the obvious competitors Both hydrogen and electric vehicles offer: 1,7 - Diversification Energy density (kwh/kg) Scarce resource - Zero direct emissions System innovation required Production,storage and Distribution (strengthening Plug-in hybrid existing grid) - Efficiency gain compared distribution to ICE predecessor Many differences Refill in minutes; Consumer acceptance Hydrogen Platina for both Perception less safe? Electricity Diesel: 12 0,13 Lithium Long recharge time Drive range New actors Oil companies Electricity suppliers New business concepts Production method CCS essential Renewables Fossil fuels + CCS

12 Conclusions In the long run, large CO 2 emission reductions in road transport are possible - innovations currently available have insufficient potential in the long run - options with a large potential are still in the demonstration phase The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - depending on the method of electricity generation - the air quality advantage is less significant The obvious competitor: a hydrogen-fuelled electric (fuel cell) vehicle - both require a system innovation - too early to pick a winner

13 Thank you! See also: report ECN E