Europe Urban Bus Market Outlook Report

Transcription

1 October 2017 Europe Urban Bus Market Outlook Report Global Mass Transit Research

2 Current market size Land Transport Authority, Singapore Current market size Current market size The current market size of the urban bus segment in terms of volume is estimated at buses operating in 75 key cities in Europe. Of these, approximately 2% are hybrid/electric buses. In terms of value, the market size of buses in Europe ranges between USD28 billion to USD37 billion (taking into account that a diesel bus costs USD300,000 and an electric/hybrid bus costs USD500,000). London,, Paris, Istanbul and Madrid are the top five cities in terms of fleet size. These cities also have high population density and population levels. Top 10 cities in terms of fleet size Country City Fleet size (no.) England London Russia 7,900 France Paris Turkey Istanbul 5,797 Spain Madrid Russia 2,965 Georgia Tbilisi Greece Athens 2,526 Italy 2,522 England Manchester 2,385 2

3 Bus rolling stock Bus rolling stock (1/3) 80 Distribution of bus fleet by type of fuel Diesel and biodiesel* Electric CNG Hybrid Hydrogen Other** Note: *Comprises three cities deploying biodiesel buses; **Other comprises methane-fuelled, biogas-fuelled and battery buses. Almost all 75 cities covered in the report deploy more than one type of bus. Diesel and biodiesel buses constitute by far the largest part of the bus fleet. A total of 64 cities deploy diesel-fuelled buses and three cities deploy biodiesel-fuelled buses. Electric buses are deployed in cities, CNG buses in 28 cities, hybrid buses in cities and hydrogen fuel cell buses in cities. A total of 7 cities deploy various other type of buses: 3 cities deploy biogas buses and 2 cities each deploy methane and battery operated buses. The average age of buses is about years. Denmark, Finland, Ireland and the UK have the youngest bus fleets with the average age being about 6 years. 3

4 No. of cities Fare systems Fare systems (1/2) Fare systems Of the 75 cities covered in the report, cities deploy more than one mode of fare payment. A total of 58 cities deploy magnetic-stripe/paper tickets, passes and tokens. Paper tickets are the most common fare media. This is followed by contactless smartcards and radio-frequency identification (RFID) cards, which are deployed in cities. Mobile-based ticketing is gaining prominence. It includes SMS-based tickets or the use of mobile applications (app) downloaded on smartphones. Use of electronic wallets and near field communication (NFC)-enabled mobile phones is still small and has the potential to grow. SMS-based ticketing has been deployed in cities, followed by online/electronic ticketing (7 cities). The use of bank cards was found in very few cities () Distribution of cities by type of fare media Tickets/ passes/ tokens/paper tickets/magnetic strips and card Contactless smartcards/ RFID cards Mobile-app/ mobile ticketing (NFC andqr) and electronic wallet SMS-based ticketing Online/electronic ticketing Bank cards 4

5 Key project initiatives to promote buses Key project initiatives to promote buses (1/2) Key projects initiatives Project Wireless Bus Stop Charging Description The project is funded by the. Its aim is to implement, test and evaluate the potential of wireless charging for buses in city traffic to reduce emissions, improve energy efficiency and decrease fossil-fuel dependence through electrification. The project partners include, Stockholm's Public Transport Authority SL, energy utility company Vattenfall, and the municipality of Södertälje. in Gothenburg In June 2017, partners in the project announced plans to expand electric bus operations in Gothenburg. From June 2018, two high-capacity electric buses will start operating on Route 16. Gothenburg has deployed electric buses on Route 55 since The tests were originally scheduled to end in 2018, but now the trial is being extended with additional vehicles and the test period will continue to. New charging stations will be built at and Hospital. The project involves testing solutions in automation, such as automatic Bus Stop Docking and bus platooning whereby buses run close behind one other in long trains in urban traffic. European Bus System of the Future 2 (EBSF-2) The project is led by UITP and co-funded by the. EBSF-2 project (May 2015 April 2018) capitalises on the results of EBSF-1 (September April 2013). EBSF_2 aims to develop a new-generation urban bus systems through new vehicle technologies and infrastructures in combination with operational best practices. It tests operating scenarios within several European bus networks and improves image of the bus. x It aimed to achieve full commercialisation of hydrogen powered fuel cell buses. It was a public-private partnership ( partners from eight countries) and received substantial funding from the. The project was completed in December 2016 at an investment of EUR million. 5

6 Funding and finance Funding and finance (1/2) Local and national governments are the main sources of funds for bus procurement and bus system improvement projects. Other important sources of funds are the European Investment Bank (EIB), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and European Union funding programmes. Examples of funding for bus projects City Brussels, Belgium Project Restructuring the bus network; developing new metro and tram lines; acquiring vehicles; constructing depots Investment (EUR million) 5,200 over 10 years ( ) Sources of funds Government of the Brussels Capital Region Dublin, Ireland 1,000 National Transport Authority St Petersburg, Russia At least 50% of the bus fleet to be fuelled by compressed natural gas (CNG) by 2023 City government to provide EUR280 million West Midlands, England Increasing bus patronage by 5%; launching integrated ticketing incorporating intelligent mobility policy; improving on-board facilities such as seating, next stop announcements and Wi-Fi 170 over the period 2017 to 2021 Lisbon, Portugal 80.6 between 2015 and

7 Recent fundings Recent fundings (1/4) Recent Developments Recent funding in fleet projects is around EUR465 million in countries. Of this, the maximum funds were received in, where the city government invested EUR297.7 to procure CNG buses. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will provide EUR million to Tbilisi and and will provide over EUR30 million to, Vilnius and. Country City Description of project Fleet Russia Key recent fundings Have 50% of the bus fleet fuelled by compressed natural gas (CNG) by 2023 Funds provided (EUR million) City government Funding authority Month and year of funding Latvia Riga July 2017 Georgia Tbilisi Hungary Purchase of 4 electric urban mini buses, 23 low-floor urban solo buses, and 14 low-floor urban articulated buses Hungarian government's Modern Towns' Programme (MVP) Xxx Czech Republic Brno EU Italy Milan Lithuania Purchase of 40 trolleybuses by 2019 at a cost of EUR15.82 million EU Ukraine Vinnytsia Purchase of 40 trolleybuses 8.00 European Investment Bank (EIB) November

8 Market outlook Market outlook Outlook and Opportunities Market outlook Of the 75 cities covered in the report, cities have firm plans to procure a total of 16,956 buses (diesel, electric, hybrid, CNG, hydrogen, biogas, etc.) by Of the total buses planned to be procured, contracts for 15,469 buses are yet to be awarded. In terms of value, this translates into an opportunity of USD4.6 billion-usd6.2 billion. In terms of volume, the market size is expected to increase to buses, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % by In terms of value, the market size is expected to increase to billion by Majority of the procurements are driven by the emphasis on deployment of clean buses, preferably those compliant with Euro 5 or Euro 6 emission standards. Market size growth (in volume) Market size growth (in value) 115, , , ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 93, No. of buses USD28 billion- USD37 billion x

9 Upcoming bus-based projects Upcoming bus-based projects Outlook and Opportunities Current scenario France, UK and Netherlands are leading BRT development in the region, accounting for around % of the total network. However, Turkey s Istanbul BRT records the highest average daily ridership ( passengers). A total of 22 cities in France have operational BRT corridors, which together witness an average daily ridership of over 468,919 passengers. In terms of length, the longest networks are in Paris, Douai and Rouen. A total of cities in the UK have operational BRT corridors, which together witness an average daily ridership of over 179,193 passengers. In terms of length, the longest networks are in. Country City Category Details Netherlands Rolling stock Northern Ireland Opportunities In May 2016, public transport company ordered 10 VDL Citeas SLFA electric buses from VDL Bus & Coach BV for the. Belfast In, the revealed plans to commence service on the Belfast BRT by. Spain Funding and finance In July 2017, the allocated EUR40 million over a four-year funding programme for the MetroGuagua BRT. The central government will disburse EUR million in 2017, EUR15 million in 2018, EUR million in 2019 and EUR million in In February 2017, received a 20-year loan of EUR50 million from the for the MetroGuagua BRT. England London City of London has unveiled plans to develop a BRT corridor by at a cost of USD500 million. The BRT project will be funded by the. The BRT corridor will span 24 km and cover 35 stations. It will extend to all four corners of the city. A fleet of high-frequency buses is planned to be deployed. The fleet may be electric or a diesel-electric hybrid. 9