New intercity coach services in Germany and France: Can they make money?
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1 New intercity coach services in Germany and France: Can they make money? Prof. Dr. Laurent Guihery (Université de Cergy-Pontoise) Economist Cornelia Gremm (KIT, Germany) Long-distance passengers transport: market, planning, innovation Milano, KIT Universität des Landes Baden-Württemberg und nationales Forschungszentrum in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
2 Agenda New framework of coach services France - Germany Issue of profitability A German French perspective Conclusion 2
3 Germany New Passenger Transport Act 42a since January 1st 2013 Intercity bus services are legal if: distance > 50 km travel time regional trains > 60 minutes No fare regulation domestic traffic cross-border traffic Sources: German Federal Statistical Office 3
4 Germany Number of German intercity bus lines Growth Consolidation Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
5 Germany Market share of intercity bus transport depending on scheduled kilometers (July 2017) IC Bus & UBB Regiojet 0% 1% Eurolines 3% Hellö 1% DeinBus.de & To Europe.de 1% others 1% FlixBus 93% Source: IGES 5
6 The French market : behavioral changes 6
7 The French market : Appendix : French Long Distance Passengers Market : 122 billion passenger.km Long distance pass. market : (billion pass.km) Ticket price HST (TGV) : 54 = 0,08 /km Intercities train : 8 -- Tourism coach : 40 (!) = BlablaCar : 4 = 0,07 /km Interurb. C. (SLO) : 2 + 0,043 /km Air Travel : 14,3 +++ Service innovations : Ouigo / ID-TGV Price innovations : Abonnement TGV Max (TGV illimited for 79 /month) and Yves Crozet,
8 The French market: A lot of new entrants At the beginning Three now! 230 cities connected (2017) Stabilisation (load factor : 45 %) 8
9 The French market : Market share of the French intercity bus market Isilines 19% Ouibus 41% Flixbus 40% Megabus and Starshipper are out of the market Three remaining operators are making losses: e.g. Ouibus 40 million in Euro/ passenger Idea : 1 st class seats ; news franchising contracts ; outsourcing drivers / coach management Target Ouibus : price 20 % below BlaBlaCar 9
10 The French market : A (financially) lose-lose game? High losses for coach operators 6 or 7 million passengers per year is not enough. 12 or more are necessary to have 3 operators But the domestic long-distance market is growing slowly in France In order to attract more long distance traffic, SNCF in France as DB in Germany, are obliged to accept a lower turnover (price elasticity <I1I). 10
11 Agenda New framework of coach services Issue of profitability Conclusion 11
12 Profitability Germany intercity bus traffic based on passengers intercity bus traffic based on buses domestic intercity bus passenger traffic domestic passenger-km traffic average distance in km for domestic traffic bus-km for domestic traffic change 2015/16 15,966,250 16,600,000 4% 4,484,792,304 4,648,000,000 4% % 165,377, ,711, % 12
13 Profitability Germany change 2015/16 Turnover/passenger ( ) % Turnover Net turnover/passenger ( ) (excl. 19% sales tax) % Total net turnover 280,380, ,248, % Turnover/passenger-km ( ) % Net ( ) turnover/passenger-km % Turnover/bus-km % 13
14 Profitability Germany 5,3 euro cent per pkm 9% 13% 34% 2% 19% 23% Source: BAG SPNV 2016 operation vehicle fuel infrastructure others marketing, sales 14
15 Profitability Germany change 2015/16 costs total cost excl. toll (assumption 5,3 Euro cents per pkm in 2015) , ,62-5% cost per pkm 0,053 0,048-9% total toll , ,90-5% total cost incl. toll , ,52-5% cost per bus-km excl. toll 1,44 1,44 0% cost per bus-km incl. toll 1,55 1,55 0% 15
16 Profitability Germany total profit contribution , ,38 Profit contribution profit per pkm in Euro 0,010 0,013 profit per bus-km in Euro 0,258 0,377 16
17 Profitability Germany Break-even analysis depending on load factor and turnover per pkm 400,00 300,00 200,00 profit in million 100,00 0,00-100,00-200,00-300,00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Euro per pkm 0,045 Euro per pkm 0,055 Euro per pkm 0,065 17
18 France : profitability issues a) A micro-economic analysis Cost of a driver : France : Wages (+bonus) : (1971 h.) Employers tax : 40 % Total cost : Hourly cost : 28,35 /h Germany : Wages (+bonus) : % employer tax :
19 France : profitability issues a) A micro-economic analysis 19
20 Profitability : A German French perspective 20
21 Agenda New framework of coach services Issue of profitability Conclusion 21
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