CARBON NANOFIBER SUPERCAPACITOR. Steve Miller, Gabe Schwartz, Rebekah Shirley, Joe Wofford

Transcription

1 CARBON NANOFIBER SUPERCAPACITOR Steve Miller, Gabe Schwartz, Rebekah Shirley, Joe Wofford

2 Introduction Who are we? Joe Wofford PhD Materials Science 2011 Rebekah Shirley MS Energy & Resources 2011 Steve Miller MBA 2011 Gabe Schwartz MBA 2011 What are we doing here? Discuss LBNL / Stanford proof of concept (Dr. Yuegang Zhang, Dr. Yi Cui) Assess the market to determine value and next steps What are we going to talk about? Growing importance of supercapacitors Potential value and implications of early stage LBL / Stanford Lab tech How it fits into the market & industry landscape Conclusions and recommendations 2

3 Broad and sustained market trends create demand for supercapacitors Unplug everything High functionality, small size Global clean energy focus Off-grid power Energy and power intensive applications, larger peak-power demands Wind turbines & hybrids need large power boosts Requires efficient energy storage solutions $877M market by 2014 Source: Lux Research 3

4 Why supercapacitors? Power: Primary Supercapacitor Advantage More Supercapacitor Advantages Long Cycle Life (1,000x >Batteries) High Efficiency High Reliability and Low Maintenance Wide Working Temperature 4

5 Cost is the key market consideration and barrier for mass adoption Cost Per Farad Progression Cost Breakdown Cost down 90% in last 10 yrs Still % too expensive Materials 60-70% of total cost Target for mass adoption Both increasing volumes and technological innovation will lower costs, driving further demand growth 5

6 A new approach to carbon electrodes Prior Approaches: Planar Substrate Our Approach: 3D Foam Substrate Nanoporous carbon Carbon nanofibers 1F More ac0ve surface area = Higher capacitance per area (3X) 1F 6

7 Leads to increased energy storage without sacrificing power Thin Active Layer Thick Active Layer 3D Foam Substrate High Power Low Energy Low Power High Energy High Power High Energy Thick electrodes with low resistance higher energy without the typical power tradeoff Source: Kotz & Carlen; Principles and applications of electrochemical capacitors, Electrochimica Acta 45 (2000) 7

8 Basic development could make device competitive with industry leaders 10 6 Power Density (Watts/Liter) W/L Optimization Steps (<1 yr) Bench-top unit Organic electrolyte Geometric optimization Tailored carbon Wh/L Energy Density (Watt-Hours/Liter) 8

9 Projected cost advantage is uncertain with current data & processes Cost Comparison for a 2,600F Cell $80 $67 $55-90 Total Cost $60 $40 $20 $ Maxwell Our Tech (Projected) Production Other Materials Electrode Avoided premium for activated carbon lower material costs Production costs present the biggest risk to cost parity Source: Frost and Sullivan 9

10 Projections suggest real-world value Improved Performance Differentiated Process ~50% higher energy density No activation step (deposition) Less energy intense Reduced balance of system materials Could offset competitors scale Energy Density Cost Cost? Performance & cost competitive with simple optimization IP most valuable if low-cost, high-speed manufacturing possible Whether these translate to commercial relevance depends heavily on market & industry dynamics 10

11 Supercapacitor applications fall within three primary markets Consumer Industrial Transporta/on Burst Power Burst Power Burst Power BaGery Life Extension Regenera0ve Power Regenera0ve Power Quick Charge Backup Power Boardnet Stabiliza0on 2014 Market Size $550M Source: Lux Research 2014 Market Size 2014 Market Size $109M $218M 11

12 Competitive landscape is the tale of two markets Market Applica/on Focus Consumer Industrial and Transporta/on Commercializa/on Stage Start Ups Incumbents Source: Lux Research 12

13 Start-ups leveraging new technology to disconnect from incumbent value chain Electrode and Material Manufacturers Cell and Module Manufacturers OEMs and End Users Commercializa/on Stage Incumbents Start Ups A.C. Maxwell and EnerG2 aim to supply electrode material to incumbent manufacturers However, most start ups are insulated from this manufacturing process and value chain 13

14 Key adoption considerations revolve around cost per power Consumer Industrial Transporta/on Handsets, Cameras Power Tools Wind Turbines Cranes, ForkliIs UPS Hybrid Heavy Vehicles Light Vehicles Primary Adop/on Considera/ons Cost Power Energy Cycle Life Reliability Temp Range 14

15 Industrial and heavy transportation markets present the best fit for this technology Wind Turbines Military, Space Ease of Entry (Time to Market, Relationships) Power Tools Cranes, Forklifts Light Vehicles Smart Meters Handsets, Cameras Hybrid Heavy Vehicles UPS Alignment with Market Requirements (Cost, Energy Density) Competitive standalone product unlikely, but could be valuable as a complement to innovators pursuing these markets Note: Bubble size represents the relative size of the addressable market in

16 Two potential paths for technology progression Value Prop Target Markets Customer AOributes Approach Supercapacitor Complementary Value Higher energy density, lower material costs, novel process Heavy hybrids, wind turbines, military & space Willing to experiment, can integrate w/ process, targeting industrial & heavy transport License IP to a startup Broader Market Applica/ons High specific surface area carbon Water desalinization, metal recovery, hydrogen storage, Liion battery electrodes Less cost sensitive, looking to solve surface area specifically Customer discovery, licensing or joint development 16

17 Summary and next steps Promising proof of concept, significant room for optimization Energy density improvement of up to 50% Maintained power and cycle life Unique approach could lead to materials and process cost savings Industry focused on cost Need to understand manufacturing costs at scale Startups with similar non-ac processes are best positioned to incorporate this research into a competitive product Two likely paths forward Complementary value to other supercap startups, e.g. FastCap explore licensing interest High potential value in non-supercapacitor applications, i.e. battery electrodes, water treatment, and fuel cells 17

18 APPENDIX

19 Much Insight comes from Discussion with Industry Professionals Christine Ho Imprint Energy, Co-Founder Important for an electrode to fit into pre-existing manufacturing process. Demonstrate either ability to be integrated or significant performance gain Kelsey Lynn Fire Lake Capital, Partner Energ2, Board Observer A company s electrode is the secret sauce of supercapacitors While companies tend to manufacture their own electrodes, there is a market for electrode materials Riccardo Signorelli FastCAP, President and CEO You have to ask yourself where your core competence lies Each application requires something different. Know what you re good at and make sure you understand the length of the sales & design cycle John Miller JME Inc., Founder Response time is an important characteristic of supercapacitor performance There may be other markets for high surface area, high specific capacitance carbon materials Chad Hall Ioxus, VP Sales Focus on lifetime, rather than upfront, costs You have to be able to manufacture at speed, at least 15 meters per minute Companies are very reluctant to license out. They will license in, but this involves a lot of time and money for testing and joint development 19

20 Comparison with battery technologies Features Lead Acid Battery Lithium-Ion Battery Supercapacitor Power Density (W/L) ~ ~500 5,800 ~1,000 90,000 Energy Density (Wh/L) ~ ~60 90 ~1 11 Life Cycle ~ ~500 3,500 ~500,000 1,000,000 Efficiency (%) ~80% ~90% ~95% Work Temperature ( o C) ~(30) 45 ~(20) 60 ~(40) 85 Cost/Power ($/kw) ~$ ~$ ~$5 35 Cost/Energy ($/kwh) ~$ ~$350 1,000 ~$13,000 3,000,000 Note: Electrodes volumetric performance is typically more relevant than gravimetric once balance of system is taken into account. A 2x difference in electrode Wh/kg would only produce a spread of a few oz. in a large device, while the same 2x in Wh/L would translate Source: Lux Research directly to device size. 20

21 Complementary value with batteries 21

22 Advantages of Carbon Nanofibers 22

23 Process: low pressure vapor deposition 23

24 24 Electrode performance as a function of active layer thickness 1) Kotz, R.; Carlen, M.; Principles and applica0ons of electrochemical capacitors, Electrochimica Acta 45, (2000).

25 Cost Breakdown 25 Production costs Material costs 15% 40% 40% 60% 10% 15% 10% 25% 50% 50% 60% 25% Materials Assembly Packaging Seperator Electrolyte Electrode Materials account for a large por0on of overall costs compared to other storage technologies Electrode a significant por0on of these material costs 25

26 Projected cost differential is uncertain $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Material Costs Maxwell 2,600F Cell? This Tech - 2,600F Cell $40 $30 $20 $10 Al203 Nickel Foam Ethylene Passivation Binder Slurry / Pasting Activated Carbon Current Collector Cell Assembly Packaging Assumes: 15-30% savings in the carbon electrode 67% savings in the separator 10% savings in packaging $0 Processing Costs Maxwell Maxwell Total: This This Tech Tech Total: - 2,600F $67 Cell 2,600F $50 - Cell 90 Deposition? 26

27 Market applications detail Markets 2014 Market Size Functions Primary Adoption Considerations Consumer Handsets/Cameras ~$539M Quick Charge, Burst Power Power Tools ~$9M Quick Charge, Burst Power Cost/Power, Power Density, Life0me Cost/Power, Cycling, Life0me Industrial Wind Turbines ~$20M Burst Power, Quick Cycling Elevators/Cranes/Forklihs <$50M Regenera0ve Power, Burst Power UPS <$50M Back Up Power Transporta/on Cycling, Low Maintenance, Temp Durability Durability, Reliability, Deep Discharge Cycling, Temp Durability Reliability, Low Maintenance, Life0me Hybrid Vehicles/Buses ~$218M Cold Start, Regenera0ve Power Electric Trains <$50M Cold Start, Regenera0ve Power Cost/Power, Power/Energy Density, Temp Durability Cost/Power, Power/Energy Density, Temp Durability 27

28 Non Supercapacitor Application Details 3D Macroporous Carbon Negative Electrode enhances rate performance of Li-ion batteries: Higher Surface Area > Increased Number of Active Sites for Charge Transfer Reactions Capacitive Deionization is being e x p l o r e d f o r l o w - c o s t w a t e r desalination and metal recovery using high specific area carbon materials: Higher Surface Area > Increased area for ion absorption H o l l o w g e o m e t r y o f C a r b o n nanostructures is a solution to storing Hydrogen Gas for Hydrogen Fuel Cells: Higher Specific Surface Area > Higher amount of adsorbate per surface area 28

29 Hybrid applications: supercap-battery hybrid energy devices based on nanocomposites 29