TILL ACKERMANN. Head of Economy & Business (Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen)

Transcription

1 TILL ACKERMANN Head of Economy & Business (Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen)

2 THE MEGAFON STUDY funded from the State of Baden-Württemberg and PTO s future roles 2017 November 30th, Bruxelles Dr. Till Ackermann

3 THEMEGAFON STUDY: WHAT WE DID MEGAFON: MODELL-ERGEBNISSE GETEILTER AUTONOMER FAHRZEUGFLOTTEN ALS TEIL DES OEFFENTLICHEN NAHVERKEHRS Modell based findings about shared fleets of autonomous vehicles as a part of public transport. - Using the approach as the OECD/ITF Lisbon Study for the region of Stuttgart

4 Region of Stuttgart - Regarding the whole Region of Stuttgart - City of Stuttgart and 5 Counties - 2,66 Mio. inhabitants - 1,25 Mio. households - 1,56 Mio. Cars Cars / 1000 inhabitants - 7,5 Mio. trips / day - Modal-split: 53% Cars, 31% Feed/Bike, 16% PT - Using a micro-model with all trips during a day - Shifting the trips according to the gross-travel-time - 9 Scenarios with autonomous vehicles in different use cases: private owned cars, carsharing cars or shared shuttles - Scenarios were set with percentages of the different car use cases and with rail and light-rail services or not

5 Key findings Today From 1.56 mill. existing cars in the Region of Stuttgart, on an average day only 1.07 mill. are used. From those 1.07 mill. driven cars, only 12% ( ) are used in the peak Those cars are occupied with only 1.26 persons/car Scenarios privately owned autonomous cars or autonomous vehicles in individual carsharing use will decrease the average rate of car occupancy and will add more vehicle miles on streets because of empty reallocation When the whole car mobility would be done with autonomous carsharing vehicles you would need 19% of the daily used fleet (13% of the existing fleet), you would add 5% of mileage with empty cars. Scenarios without light rail and rail services are not feasible

6 Scenario 2: 100% AV-PT-Rideselling Shuttles and rail services When the whole car mobility would be done with autonomous rideselling shuttles one would need 7% of the daily used fleet (5% of the existing fleet) = shuttles instead of 1,070,000 cars You would have an average occupancy of 3,7 persons/ shuttle. The mileage of vehicles trops down to 64% including 6% of empty trips.

7 Scenario 2: 100% AV-PT-Rideselling Shuttles and rail services Stuttgart road occupancy

8 Scenario 2: 100% AV-PT-Rideselling Shuttles, NO rail services Stuttgart road occupancy

9 MEGAFON: 100% AV-PT-rideselling Shuttles and rail services show the path to the future 100 % mobility 93 % less vehicles 93 % less parking places 36 % less vehicle mileage less energy consumption 93 % higher occupancy of vehicles the rideselling scenario is the only scenario, that does not bring more congestion to the city centre. Quelle: VDV/VVS/SSB-Projekt MEGAFON: Uni Stuttgart, mit Unterstützung des Landes Baden -Württemberg We still need high quality light rail and rail services Fachtagung TU Dresden - Dr. Till Ackermann - Ausblick auf die Mobilität von Morgen

10 MEGAFON: PT-Operators could also operate fleets of autonomous PT integrated ridesharing shuttles PT-Companies as provider of the system The Stuttgarter Straßenbahn AG calculated for themselves the cost of providing 25% of the fleet needed as AV-PT integrated ridesharing Shuttles: vehicles invest 1.3 Billion Euro cost per vehicle-km = 0,25 Euro necessary revenue per passenger-km = 0,15 Euro = the price for the customer comes close to regular PT tariffs

11 strategic point of view on the future role of PTOs/PTAs increase your market share by embracing innovations become the integrator of mobility services develop and operate interoperable mobility platform protect your customer relations, and apply CRM measures dare to experiment with autonomous shuttles; speed up the degree of automation of all PT-offers make long-term transport planning and investments in consideration of the possible impacts of autonomous vehicles on public transport make the stakeholders sensitive to the opportunities and risks of autonomous vehicles from the point of view of transport policy

12 New German PT platform: Mobility inside With this project the PT-sector organises himself the digital transition Mobility inside will be a countrywide interoperable, multimodal Mobility platform for information, routing, booking, payment, ticketing and additional services. Each PTO (and PTA) will become digital visible with its own brand the integrator of multimodality part of an integrated service offer instead of a carrier. Spieg elserve r 2 Spieg elserve r 1 Spieg elserve r n Spieg elserve r 3

13 Thank You! Questions? Now or digital at

14 Back-up

15 MODEs & Szenarios AV-NS = privatly owned autonomous vehicle (1,3 P/car) AV-CS = autonomous vehicle in Carsharing mode (1,3 P/car) AV-RS = autonomous vehicle in Rideselling mode (1,3 P/car) m/obahn = with or without Rail and Tram

16 MEGAFON: Overview of the results Public Transport is still needed! Only scenarios with ridesharing reduce mileage and energy consumption significantly

17 Scenario 1: 100% AV-carsharing with rail Stuttgart Road-Occupancy

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