Published 3Q Laurent J. Masson Industry Analyst. John Gartner Research Director

Transcription

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Electric Vehicle Charging Residential, Commercial, DC Fast Charge, and Wireless Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment: Market Analysis and Forecasts NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com. Published 3Q 2012 Laurent J. Masson Industry Analyst John Gartner Research Director

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction Although the European Union (EU) has created a common currency and governing framework for itself, Europe s nations are divided over many areas of business and technology and electric vehicles (EVs) are no exception. For example, one European country will have more charging stations than it has EVs on the road, and a neighboring country will have the opposite problem. Some national governments will pay for charging stations or give cash incentives to people buying plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), while other countries will not give any financial support to EV infrastructure (and, historically, have not given any). Across Europe, multiple technologies and rates apply to charging an EV. The many complex regulations governing the sale of electricity vary from country to country and influence charging services. Moreover, several different payment models apply to those EV charging services, further complicating the process of paying for vehicle charging. In most countries, selling electricity is illegal except for licensed retail power providers, so those companies that are not licensed as utilities alternatively sell "electric mobility services." Since European countries have taken many different approaches to EV infrastructure and since driving among European countries is very common, the EU must address these country-specific variations if the EV market is to thrive. One EV leader has emerged in Europe: the Renault-Nissan Alliance is influencing PEV sales and EV charging infrastructure. Nissan was first to bring a mass-produced EV to market with its Leaf. Renault is going one step further with its ZOE battery electric vehicle (BEV), introducing a vehicle and supporting infrastructure technology and deployment. Renault designed the ZOE BEV so that a corresponding fast direct current (DC) charging station would be cheap to build. The Renault ZOE is designed to enable 43 kw DC charging from a 3,000 ($3,748) charging station. This low-cost charger has the potential to change the economics of commercial EV charging. At the same time, the absence of a single alternating current (AC) EV charging connector standard has hampered the deployment of an EV charging infrastructure. For more than 2 years, the German industry has supported the Type 2 plug (most often known as the Mennekes connector). Meanwhile, the French and Italian electric equipment manufacturers, united under the umbrella of the EV Plug Alliance but without the support of a single car company have supported the Type 3 plug. The EU could have set a standard, but declined, and many businesses that were considering installing charging equipment did not because they did not know which technology to choose. Renault devised one solution and currently sells its Fluence electric sedan with a Type 3 connector in France and a Type 2 connector in Germany. If the European EV charging equipment market, also known as the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) 1 market, is to reach its potential, these multiple standards cannot last. 1 In the EV industry, what was once called the electric vehicle charging equipment market is now commonly called the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) market. Pike Research uses both terms in this research report. 1

3 One important factor that will drive investment in EVSE will be the arrival of an electric car with mass-market appeal. This might happen with the introduction of the Renault ZOE BEV at the end of 2012 and the Volkswagen Golf BEV in These two cars should dramatically increase consumer interest and spur investment from companies looking to provide infrastructure. Currently, because of government intervention, France is the largest market for EVs in Europe. However, starting in 2013, Germany Europe s largest economy will hold that position. Pike Research s EVSE market forecasts include projections for 19 countries in Europe: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. These forecasts show that annual EVSE sales will grow from less than 47,000 units in 2012 to nearly 900,000 in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44%. The largest European EVSE market will be Germany, which is home to many of Europe s largest vehicle manufacturers; it will represent 24% of the region s sales in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are Europe s top four countries for EVSE sales. In all, more than 4.1 million EV chargers will be sold in Europe between 2012 and By 2020, sales of residential chargers will drop to 32% of the European EV charging market (from 43% in 2012) because fewer EV owners will live in homes with convenient access to garages for overnight charging; they will rely instead on commercial charging. Public charging will represent 32% of the market in 2020, followed by workplace (20%) and private charging equipment (16%). 2

4 For the most part, commercial EV charging equipment, which includes non-residential equipment (encompassing public, private, and workplace charging equipment), will drive revenue for EVSE sales. EVSE revenue will grow from 72 million ($90 million) in 2012 to more than 1 billion ($1.3 billion) by Commercial DC charging equipment revenue, which Pike Research has forecast separately from AC charging equipment, will grow to more than 211 million ($263 million) in Wireless charging equipment sales will start slowly due to a lack of standards, but will grow to reach nearly 79 million ($98 million) in Chart 1.1 EV Charging Equipment Revenue by Segment, Europe: $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Wireless DC Commercial AC Residential $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $ (Source: Pike Research) 3

5 Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary Introduction... 1 Section Market Overview Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Residential Charging Equipment Upgrades and Permitting Charging Rates Public Charging Private Charging Workplace Charging Automaker Support for Different Charging Methods BMW: Mini and ActiveE Daimler Group: Smart Fortwo and Mercedes Vito E-Cell Ford: Focus Electric Mia Electric: mia Mitsubishi and PSA Peugeot-Citroën: i-miev, Citroën C-Zero, and Peugeot ion General Motors: Opel Ampera Renault-Nissan Alliance: Leaf, Kangoo Z.E., Fluence Z.E., and ZOE Toyota: Prius Volkswagen Group Equipment Cost Utility Involvement Section Marketing and Commercialization Business Models for Providing Electricity to Electric Vehicles Giving It Away Combining EV Charging with Another Product or Service EV Charging on a Pay-as-You-Go Basis Subscription Pricing Charging Networks Smart Charging Individual Smart Charging Fleet Smart Charging Demand Drivers EU Emissions Goals City Emissions Reductions Goals Incentives for PEVs or Charging Equipment Cost and Origin of Electricity Smart Grid Section Technology Issues Network and Grid Issues Impact on the Power Grid Generation Capacity Impact on Distribution

6 4.1.2 Three-phase PEV Charging Fast DC Charging Equipment SAE Combination Charger Wireless Charging Battery Exchange Stations Connectors Vehicle-to-Grid Technical Requirements and Constraints Section Key Industry Players Car Manufacturers BMW AG Daimler (Mercedes and Smart) Ford General Motors (Opel and Chevrolet) Mia Electric Mitsubishi (with Peugeot-Citroën) Renault-Nissan Toyota Volkswagen EVSE Manufacturers ABB Alpiq E-Mobility AG Chargemaster Plc Circutor SA Coulomb Technologies, Inc DBT France Efacec Group Elektromotive Ltd General Electric Hager Ltd Legrand Mennekes Elektrotechnik GmbH & Co. KG POD Point, Ltd SaintrOnic Schneider Electric SA Siemens AG Utilities A2A S.p.A British Gas DB Energie Ecotricity Group Ltd Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich (EKZ) EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG Enel S.p.A Electricity Supply Board (ESB) Gruppo Hera (Hera Group) RWE AG Vattenfall AB Service Companies, Associations, and Non-Profit Organizations Auto Bleue ChargePoint Services, Ltd ChoosEV A/S

7 5.4.4 Danish Energy Association Edison Stichting e-laad Monaco Government Section Market Forecasts EV Penetration EVSE Market Forecasts Denmark France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Switzerland United Kingdom Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

8 Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 EV Charging Equipment Revenue by Segment, Europe: Chart 6.1 Total Light Duty PEV Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.2 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.3 Residential EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.4 Workplace EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.5 Public EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.6 Private EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Country, Europe: Chart 6.7 DC Charging Station Installations by Country, Europe: Chart 6.8 Wireless EV Charging Station Installations by Country, Europe: Chart 6.9 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Denmark: Chart 6.10 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, France: Chart 6.11 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Germany: Chart 6.12 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Ireland: Chart 6.13 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Italy: Chart 6.14 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Netherlands: Chart 6.15 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Norway: Chart 6.16 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Portugal: Chart 6.17 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Spain: Chart 6.18 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, Switzerland: Chart 6.19 Total EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales, United Kingdom: Figure 2.1 Roadside EV Charging Equipment... 7 Figure 3.1 Smart Charging Grid Integration Figure 4.1 SAE Combination Charger Figure 4.2 Qualcomm Halo Wireless Charging Equipment Figure 4.3 Mennekes Connector Table 2.1 Vehicle Roadmap for PHEVs and Electric Passenger Vehicles, Europe: Table 3.1 European EV Charging Networks

9 Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide a study of the market for vehicle charging equipment for those participants involved in the EVs, including charging station equipment and hardware vendors, utilities, auto manufacturers, electricians, local governments and community leaders, smart grid companies, and others. The report s major objective is anticipating the emerging market and likely future growth for EV charging equipment and noting how vehicle charging will affect the load on the power grid and the performance of distribution equipment. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers, as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. This report s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and industries covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 65

10 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2012 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 66

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