E-mobility in China Challenges and Prerequisites

Transcription

1 E-mobility in China Challenges and Prerequisites Andreas Gissler Presentation to Veranstaltung E-Mobility Modellregionen, Wien Arthur D. Little Greater China 21/F, ICBC Tower, Citibank Plaza 3 Garden Road Central, Hong Kong Tel.: Fax: /F Mapletree Tower No.108 Jianguo Road, Beijing PRC Tel.: Fax: F/16, Tower 1, Grand Gateway Plaza No. 1 Hong Qiao Road, Shanghai PRC Tel : Fax :

2 1 Challenges Why China needs E-mobility? China the giant A glance at China Xinjiang Tibet China Basic Info.(2008) 27 Provinces + 4 Municipal cities GDP: 30,300 Bil. RMB Population: 1,300 Mil. Land size: 9,600k km 2 Qinghai Sichuan Yunnan Gansu Ningxia Shannxi Chongqing Guizhou Guangxi Inner Mongolia Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Beijing Jiangxi Guangdong Anhui Liaoning Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Heilongjiang Jilin Shanghai Henan Province Basic Info.(2008) GDP: 1,936 Bil. RMB Population: 99 Mil. Land size: 160,000 km 2 Zhengzhou Prefecture City Beijing (Municipality) Basic Info.(2008) GDP: 1,049 Bil. RMB Population: 19 Mil. Land size: 16,000 km 2 Fengtai Haidian Shijingshan Mentougou Fangshan Yanqing Changping Xicheng Daxing Huairou Shunyi Tongzhou Miyun Chaoyang Zhongyuan Huiji Shangjie Gongyi Dengfeng Dongcheng Zhengzhou Prefecture City Basic Info.(2008) GDP: 300 Bil. RMB Population: 7 Mil. Land size: 18,000 km 2 Xingyang Xinmi Jinshui Xinzheng Zhongmou Erqi Guancheng Hainan Source: National Statistics Bureau, Arthur D. Little analysis 2

3 1 Challenges Why China needs E-mobility? Booming economy and auto market China GDP China Passenger Vehicle Market GDP (in 1,000 Bil. RMB, at current market price) New car sales (in Mil. units) % % % % % E 12 E 13 E 14 E E 12 E 13 E 14 E 15 E 20 E Source: EIU, Arthur D. Little analysis 3

4 1 Challenges Why China needs E-mobility? Congestion in top cities and measures are being implemented Current Traffic Situation in Beijing Beijing Measures to Ease Traffic Flow (Issued on Dec. 23rd, 2010) Objective: To increase % of public transportation use in central city of Beijing, e.g. 50% by 2015 Optimize city planning Develop public transport infrastructure Control the size and capacity of central city Continue to develop the rising-up suburb districts Strengthen road traffic construction ~300k more parking lots Develop metro system (2 more lines in 2011, another 5 lines by end of 2015) Optimize bus system (more capacity, bus lanes and intersection with metros) Launch public bike service system Mild Control car population Number plate cap of 240k in driver is allowed to register only 1 new car in Beijing via lottery; Replacement purchase will not be impacted Higher restriction on residents without Beijing citizenship to own a NC in Beijing Cars registered outside of Beijing will be banned in the central city (5 th ring) in rush hours Higher parking fee in central city (take effect from April 1 st, 2011) Harsh Source: Beijing Traffic Improvement Measures, news release, Arthur D. Little analysis 4

5 2 Subsidies in China The necessity of CO2 reduction forces the Chinese Government to push E-mobility Subsidies per country USA (Produktion, Infrastruktur) 22187,8 China (Produktion, Infrastruktur) Frankreich (Produktion, Infrastruktur) Spanien (Produktion) Großbritannien (Produktion, Infrastruktur) Deutschland (Produktion, Infrastruktur) Südkorea (Produktion) Japan (Produktion, Infrastruktur) Dänemark (Infrastruktur) Irland Italien Portugal 47,0 5,8 0,0 0,0 651,0 277,0 208,0 2181,8 1390,0 1324,0 3337,1 Staatliche Förderung der Forschung und Entwicklung (F&E) und der Infrastruktur in den nächsten fünf Jahren (in Millionen Euro) Chinese Government will become technology leader in EVs Therefore they provide the second highest subsidy invest of 3,3 Billion Short term target will be 500 T units in T in 2015 und T in 2020 Commercialization is driven by national subsidies and regulations for both customers and manufacturers Public authorities together with utility companies have already planned to increase spending on infrastructure building The national EV develop plan is on its way in which technology sharing will be compulsory for foreign manufacturers who want to enter China market Mobility services evolve as a future trend for EV business in China Quelle: WiWo, McKinsey, Arthur D. Little etc. 5

6 2 Subsidies in China Overview of subsidy support by government Purchase subsidy Sales subsidy (to car buyer) Other subsidy Industry subsidy (to investor) China national Subsidy is based on battery capacity, i.e. RMB 3,000 per kwh Subsidy for private purchase of plug-in hybrid PV: up to RMB 50,000/car Subsidy for private purchase of pure electric PV: up to RMB 60,000/car + Additional support N.A. Beijing Same amount as the national subsidy N.A. N.A. For charging station/pole, subsidy could be up to 30% of total construction investment Financed by central government Shanghai Up to 20% of vehicle purchase price Plug-in hybrid PV: up to RMB 20,000/car Pure electric PV: up to RMB 40,000-50,000/car Free of city toll fee By-pass auction process and get license plate for free or at reduced price Up to 20% of total equipment investment and no more than RMB 3 million Financed by local city governments Shenzhen Plug-in hybrid PV: up to RMB 30,000/car Pure electric PV: up to RMB 60,000/car N.A. N.A. Source: government websites, Arthur D. Little research 6

7 3 EV market What EVs are coming up in general and in China? Chery Rui Lin QQ BYD F3DM E6 Zotye LangYue EV 5008EV Hafei Saibao Geely Nanoq Source: ADAC, Arthur D. Little research

8 4 E-mobility examples Shanghai has the largest EV population due to the EXPO in 2010 Shanghai Electric Vehicle Demo Area Long term Temporary Jiading International Auto City Total Bus Car Mini EV Downtown Demo Area Total Bus Car Mini EV Jinshan Hybrid Demo Area Total Bus Car Mini EV Chongming Eco Island Total Bus Car Mini EV Pudong Demo Area Total Bus Car Mini EV EXPO Demo Area Total Bus Car Mini EV Inside Outside Shanghai EXPO will 100% adopt zero emission vehicles not only inside the EXPO park, but also in the surrounding areas Temporary EXPO electric vehicle demonstration park will be established with 160 cars and 340 buses in by long term demo parks have also been planned in order to meet the requirement of programs like the establishment of Chongming Eco Island and Jiading International Auto City Over 1000 electric vehicles will be demonstrated in Shanghai Started in 2008 Stepwise piloted with increasing number of vehicles Source: SCEC, Arthur D. Little research and analysis Notes: 1) Buses and cars refer to hybrid or fuel cell vehicles, while mini EV refers to pure battery driven vehicles 8

9 4 E-mobility examples Shanghai government has established Shanghai Industry Base of New Energy Vehicle and Key Parts as a critical step for industrialization of the EV industry Shanghai Industry Base of New Energy Vehicle and Key Parts Comments Location: Jiading District, Shanghai Phase 1: 4 km 2 with total investment of 3 billion RMB, completed in 2009 Phase 2: 9 km 2 planned Total production value of E-Vehicles (hybrids and 100% EV) by 2012 is expected to reach 20 billion RMB EV production capacity (In k units) 300 Key OEM participated: SAIC EV parts manufacturers: Shanghai Edrive, Ruihua Group, Jing-Jin Electric E 2015E Institutes and laboratories inhabited: Tongji University New Energy Vehicle Engineering Center SAIC Automotive Engineering Institute.. Total production value of related key parts by 2012 is expected to reach 10 billion RMB Key products: Batteries, electric motor's system, electric drive components, etc. Source: Arthur D. Little research and analysis 9

10 4 E-mobility examples Beijing tries to catch up regarding EV penetration E-Vehicle on the streets of Beijing E-Vehicle charging facility in Beijing Fleet Type Units by 2010 Yanqing District Suburb area, 50 km from downtown Bus ~200 Taxi ~1,060 Charging station for taxi fleet (in ) Charging station for private users (under construction) Road cleaning ~50 Private ~500 Till now, there are 5 charging stations for private users in or under construction in Beijing By 2011, there will be another 14 charging stations put into By 2012, Beijing plans to have ~100 charging stations and ~36,000 charging poles Source: Arthur D. Little research and analysis 10

11 4 E-mobility examples Shenzhen plans to have 150 k EVs in the area in 2015 E-Vehicle on the streets of Shenzhen E-Vehicle charging facility in Shenzhen Fleet Type Units by 2012 Bus ~4,000 Taxi ~2,500 Charging station for private users (in ) Business use ~2,500 Till now, there are 4 charging stations for private users Private use ~15,000 By 2012, there will be ~24,000 E-Vehicles on the road By 2015, Shenzhen plans to have ~150k E-Vehicles By 2020, Shenzhen plans to have ~440k E-Vehicles Till now, there are 21 charging stations for bus fleet in and another 29 under construction By 2012, Shenzhen plans to have 89 charging stations (incl. both private and fleet) and 29,500 charging poles By 2015, Shenzhen plans to have 150 charging stations (incl. both private and fleet) and 227,500 charging poles Source: Arthur D. Little research and analysis 11

12 5 E-mobility strategies Four different strategies to address the EV market might be reasonable also for China Value Chain E-mobility vehicle Energy storage device Power Basic research Basic research Infrastructure Development Development Energy generation Production & procurement System production Energy transmission Marketing & sales Sales Storage & buffering After sales & mainte. After sales & mainte. Distribution vehicle & fleet operat. battery Pool operat. Management & billing mobility end customer vehicle design, Mega-OEM Purchasing, Marketing, After sales, Vehicle/ fleet production sales maintenance vehicle Intel inside Purchasing, Marketing, After sales, Vehicle/ design, fleet production sales maintenance vehicle Full service city mobility shop design, Purchasing, production Marketing, sales After sales, maintenance Vehicle/ fleet vehicle e-mobility provider Purchasing, Marketing, After sales, Vehicle/ design, fleet production sales maintenance Battery, components, systems After sales, maintenance Production of cells Production of systems Sales Battery/ pool mobility end customer Battery, components, systems After sales, maintenance Production of cells Production of systems Sales Battery/ pool mobility end customer Battery, components, systems After sales, maintenance Production Production of cells of systems Sales Battery/ pool mobility end customer Battery, components, systems After sales, maintenance Production Production of cells of systems Sales Battery/ pool mobility end customer Electricity Equipment provision Energy generation Transport Storage/ buffering Allocation, distribution Management, billing Electricity Equipment provision Energy generation Transport Storage/ buffering Allocation, distribution Management, billing Electricity Equipment provision Energy generation Transport Storage/ buffering Allocation, distribution Management, billing Electricity Equipment provision Energy generation Transport Storage/ buffering Allocation, distribution Management, billing Proprietary battery and electro vehicle know-how Offer of brand-fitting, hightech EVs including batteries Source: Arthur D. Little Ambition for industry leadership in EV technology Global standard setter Infrastructure, charging & EV powertrain Modular offering of systems architecture Megacity approach, local political support Complete set of e-mobility service offering Rental car and full-serviceleasing business fit to EV Operation of a large fleet of electro vehicles and batteries Innovative charging/billing systems, enhancing convenience 12

13 6 Summary Cities will be the key drivers for E-mobility solutions Summary Cities will be the key drivers for alternative mobility solutions, penalizing conventional vehicles with entry fees, higher costs for parking and strict regulations Alliances of public authorities, automotive companies, energy/utility companies and infrastructure players (e.g. gas stations, parking) are the first to implement electro mobility business models Subsidies in China are only provided to locally produced EVs (incl. JV) imported models are not able to enjoy the subsidies Go-to-market strategy in China would be focus on selected cities, gain market leadership and leverage this position to broad step-by-step roll-out To gain access to relevant competencies collaboration models have to be developed while defining the business model Source: Arthur D. Little 13