Using distributed solar and forecasting to compete with low diesel fuel cost

Transcription

1 Juergen Zimmermann, ABB Power Grids, All Energy Australia, Melbourne October 2016 Business Case for Offgrid Microgrids Using distributed solar and forecasting to compete with low diesel fuel cost

2 Agenda ABB in microgrids Off-grid microgrids & solar forecasting Creating Business - HOMER Use Case Solar Diesel Summary October 10, 2016 Slide 2

3 A global leader in power and automation technologies Leading market positions in main businesses ~135,000 employees $ 36 billion In revenue (2015) Present in +100 countries Formed in 1988 merger of Swiss (BBC, 1891) and Swedish (ASEA, 1883) engineering companies October 10, 2016 Slide 3

4 ABB Australia Key Locations Located at over 24 sites across Australia with Global Centre of Competence for Microgrids in Darwin Darwin, NT Northern Territory Queensland Eagle Farm, Qld Malaga, WA Western Australia South Australia Brisbane, Qld Darra, Qld Perth, WA Kewdale, WA Henderson, WA Thebarton, SA Truganina, Vic Norlane, Vic New South Wales ACT Victoria Sydney, NSW Moorebank, NSW Lilydale, Vic Notting Hill, Vic Tasmania October 10, 2016 Slide 4

5 ABB in microgrid A leader in technology, solutions and execution October 10, 2016 Slide 5

6 ABB in microgrid 30 Microgrids in 5 Continents; 100 kw to 20,000 kw Faial Islands Canary Islands Cocos Islands, AU Marble Bar El Toqui mine Mawson Station, Antartica Ross Island, Antarctica

7 Off-grid microgrids Typical solar diesel system configuration Off-grid Solar Diesel System Marble Bar Western Australia October 10, 2016 Slide 18

8 Solar diesel microgrids Achieving lowest LCoE and highest RE contribution How to manage variable output 1. Limit installed Solar PV 2. Use of control system to curtail PV output (min loading diesel; fixed Spinning Reserve Coverage) 3. Use of low load diesels 4. Use of solar forecasting 5. Install battery energy storage Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 October 10, 2016 Slide 8

9 Solar diesel microgrids How does solar forecasting work? Days Forecast Meteorological models and simulations 1-6 days Hours Forecast Satellite data hours Minutes Forecast Local Sky Camera 5-60 min October 10, 2016 Slide 9 Information courtesy of steady-sun.com

10 Solar diesel microgrids How well does solar forecasting work? October 10, 2016 Slide 10 Information courtesy of steady-sun.com; low and high estimates shown

11 Solar Forecasting: Basic Control Function Less Spinning Reserve (A) vs. Increased PV Capacity (B) PV Output MW B Forecast Period Spinning Reserve PV Output without s.f PV Output with s.f A + Spinning Reserve A Spinning Reserve without s.f. B with s.f mins Time October 10, 2016 Slide 11

12 Solar forecasting & Storage: Advanced Ctrl Functions Storage sized to cover one diesel at minimum load + + Generator 1 Generator 2 Generator Generator 3 1 Generator 2 October 10, 2016 Slide 12

13 Benefits of solar forecasting Increase certainty of Solar PV output: Dynamic spinning reserve Lower diesel generators start/stops cycles 2. Fewer generators online->higher Solar PV contribution 3. Higher Solar PV installed capacity 1. Reduced size of Battery Energy Storage System 2. Reduced charge/discharge With/without storage cycles -> start diesel earlier 3. Increase Solar PV energy With storage contribution 4. Longer/fewer diesel off periods October 10, 2016 Slide 18

14 Creating a Business Case How to optimise system design? Business Case and ROI Sizing PV/Diesel and Storage Load modelling $ Capex and Opex Battery behaviour C Grid tied Storage System Integration

15 HOMER Energy Energy flow and net present cost simulation tool 1.Modelling 2.Simulating + M+ plugin NPC 3.Optimal solution CAPEX

16 ABB Microgrid Plus System Optimising Solar/Diesel/Storage/Forecasting Networked control system responsible for efficient and reliable power flow management Distributed control system without central decision making, reflects the architecture of the electrical assets Maximizes fossil fuel savings and optimizes use of renewable energy Manages grid connection Guarantees optimum loading and spinning reserve in fossil fuel generators Distributed logic enhances reliability, modularity and scalability for future system expansions Enables multi vendor integration of electrical assets into one power system

17 HOMER Pro with Microgrid Plus System Reduce project integration risk by using ABB Plugin Select Library & Define Application Set System Control Parameters Execute Simulation with sensitivities Business as Usual Dispatcher Selection Engine Extension M+ Parameters Generators Dispatch Schedule October 10, 2016 Slide 18

18 Modelling in HOMER Pro - Solar forecasting Solar/Diesel System: Using Dynamic Spinning Reserve Solar-Diesel 3 Diesels 400 kw PV 150 kw Max Load 850 kw Min Load 200 kw

19 Business case Solar forecasting Existing operating constraints determine outcome A Operating Parameters (Spinning Reserve) Min number of gens online Example 1 Example PV Capacity (kw) Solar Forecasting No Yes No Yes PV Penetration (%) PV Contribution (%) Solar-Diesel 3 Diesels 400 kw PV 150 kw Max Load 850 kw Min Load 220 kw Comparative Fuel (L/yr) - 1,835 - Comparative Gen Operation (Hrs/yr) Savings ($/yr) $ 4,364 nil Capital (solar forecasting) ~ $ 17,000 Simple Payback ~ 4 yrs NOTE: results will vary for each system

20 Solar Forecasting Benefits Solar Diesel System with Storage: Knowing which plant to run A more informed assessment leads to better design = LCOE & Reliability October 10, 2016 Slide 18 Image courtesy of steady-sun.com

21 Summary Identify benefits of solar forecasting early in project cycle 1. Solar forecasting can lower solar/diesel LCOE through System operating at more efficient generator loading levels Lower start/stop cycles of generators; lower O&M cost Increase PV capacity towards high penetration without BESS Lower BESS capacity and increase battery life 2. Modelling solar forecasting in feasibility stage is vital to determine benefits (optimise genset, PV or storage sizes?). ABB is the leading Technology Partner for Microgrids October 10, 2016 Slide 21

22 ABB Slide 22