If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses. Henry Ford. The role of public transport buses in the energy transition

Transcription

1 If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses. Henry Ford The role of public transport buses in the energy transition

2 Introduction Marc van der Steen We help our clients to develop public-private partnerships (PPPs), innovative financing arrangements, project delivery strategies, as well as procurement and transaction advisory processes. In addition we offer a range of related services in the field of policy and strategy, institutional development, capacity building and project/policy evaluations. Projectleader 2 FC buses area Eindhoven Projectleader 4 FC buses area Hoekse Waard Goeree Overflakkee Clustermanager Benelux FCH-JU call 2017 Hydrogen study for South-Africa Our company motto: no change without a Rebel. 2

3 Cost developments Zero Emission buses Additional costs per bustype 3 types of ZE buses, three different roadmaps: a) Overnight charging b) Opportunity charging c) Hydrogen buses 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Path zero emission at start of concession : 25% ZE : 50% ZE : 75% ZE - Na 2025: 100% Conclusions currents costs, cost developments Based on TCO (investments and operations) a) Overnight: bus + infra equals diesel, if concession term is 8 jaar b) Opportunity charging: bus costs slightly higher, infrastructure more expensive c) Hydrogen: Bus expensivein CAPEX and no/limitedsavings on operations High investmentsin hydrogeninfrastructure necessary 1, # bussen overnight charging # bussen opportunity charging # bussen waterstof Conclusion: without interventions the transition of FC buses will not take off 3

4 So, why do we still want FC buses? 1) Hydrogen buses are an alternative for long distances The current capacity of battery-electric buses is insufficient for distances greater than 250 km. Additional investments are needed in infrastructure to load battery-electric buses during the route. 2) Availability of hydrogen in the Netherlands At present, there is sufficient climate-neutral hydrogen in the Netherlands in order to provide energy 1/3 of our fleet. This climate-neutral hydrogen is as an industrial waste product originating from the Dutch chemical industry and is ready and suitable to be employed 3) Contribution energy transition Hydrogen and electricity are a tandem for the transition from fossil to sustainable, clean energy. Hydrogen makes it possible to store surplus of sustainably produced electricity from solar and wind efficiently, distribute and quality into economic example in the transport sector. 4

5 Bottlenecks for upscaling FC buses High purchase costs for bus (FC!) and infrastructure. The innovative character of the bus (and unfamiliarity) makes that FC buses are relatively expensive to maintain and repair. The costs of hydrogen infrastructure are very high, especially as long as the refueling infrastructure is applied for only a few buses. The exact costs for the hydrogen consumption will depend on the production method of hydrogen, and the manner in which the investment in production, transportation and tank infrastructure is included in the price. 5

6 Relevant intervention options which buttons can we push? Non-financial variables Perceived role and policy choice Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment Concession duration Adjust concession duration towards an innovation concession Take-over agreement for buses Finance and funding strategies Subsidies / fiscal advantages for buses and infrastructure Guarantees for buses and infrastructure Financing by means of loans or participation Applicable for accelerate the transition Consideration of perceived role of regional government bodies Extension of concession duration to 15 years increases the operational advantage for FC buses and infrastructure. Experimental space increases the return on investment of ZE buses Practical objections in implementation Applicable for accelerate the transition Possibly in combination with regional en European resources Possible for infrastructure Unlikely for buses, possible for infrastructure 6

7 Transition scenario s Scenario 1: The market's in charge We will do nothing untill we can afford it Scenario 2: Public incentive Ok, we do what we do best: let s subsidize! Scenario 3: Maximize on PPS Combine subsidies with other instruments like grants and real cooperation public-private 7

8 Scenario 3: PPS Maximize the public role as launching customer for FC buses with functional specifications. If appropriate: use the existing local energy infrastructure and renewable energy generation / production and combine this with regional technology development. This requires the PTO to enter into a partnership with market participants! PTO s may impose additional requirements for contribution to regional sustainable energy policy, using both local infrastructure or requirements on contribution to the regionaleconomy. 8

9 Specific actions for FC buses Develop demand - supply simultaneously In conjunction with the development of a public filling station network in the start, public transport mobility can be an important purchase guarantee for private investment in infrastructure. Reshape the concession regulations For FC buses an extension of the concession for an extended period may affect the business case strongly positive, although FC buses are not yet competitive. Focus on upscaling in the existing H2 Regions : 20 buses per region. Min I&M must shape this upscaling with these five H2 regions. The upcoming program of the FCH JU 2017 offers an exquisite opportunity. Organise funding from Europe (FCH-JU) and the government to close the gap The Fuel Cell Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU) provides opportunities for financial contributions to the cost of purchasing H2 buses, at least for The Dutch government can connect its financial instruments to co-finance on this program. 9

10 Call FCH-JU 2017 FCH JU has assigned an European team to jointly coordinate the FCH JU bus project Europe for 207 Rebel is clustermanager for the Benelux (with Twynstra Gudde). The goal of the assignment is to form a Dutch coalition of authorities and carriers, incl. a strategy for a joint tender and/or joint procurement. The Benelux cluster aims to: Facilitate a national coalition, consisting of 4/5 regional coalitions; End product is a national coalition agreement in Q and an application forthe call.

11 3. The end product by Q Outline of the national coalition agreement Expression of interest Letter of Intent regional coalition Support letter of government Support letter of industry Conditions 1. Scaling up based on first grant Hablé buses 2. Regional coalition intends to cooperate in national coalition 3. Agreement on method of procurement/tender of buses Financing of the project EU (FCH-JU) Government Region Carrier # number of buses per region and in total

12 4. Preparation of FCH JU call 2017 Call in million (70 buses DLD, 70 buses UK) Call in <not yet know, will come soon> Planning Dutch coalition for call 2017: - May 2016 Dutch coalition ready - June 2016 Dutch coalition agreement in broad terms - June 2016 TEN-T days - June 2016 Expression of interest to FCH JU (EC & Industry) - June jan 2017 Formation international coalition - June jan 2017 Work out working method and agreements Dutch Coalition - Q Proposal for call Q Filing call - End International H2 bus project (#100 in NL)

13 Thank you for your attention! Marc van der Steen Mobile: 0031 (0)