Chicago to St. Louis 220 mph High Speed Rail Alternative Corridor Study. Volume 2 Ridership & Benefits. ESH Consult. October 27, 2009.

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1 Chicago to St. Louis 220 mph High Speed Rail Alternative Corridor Study Volume 2 Ridership & Benefits October 27, 2009 Prepared by: 222 S. Riverside Plaza, Suite 2320 Chicago, IL P: F: In association with: ESH Consult Prepared for:

2 Volume 2 High Speed Line Benefits This companion to the Infrastructure & Cost Volume, completed earlier, develops key statistics needed to evaluate the feasibility of constructing a High Speed Line (HSL) along the corridor identified in Volume 1. The objective of this section is to develop the basic statistics needed to understand the project and compare it to other similar transportation investments. Funding constraints limited this first phase to a conceptual level undertaking, but with a fully supportable basis for the conclusions. The first section develops a methodology to estimate modal split for high speed rail ridership and to address potential induced ridership. A proposed fare table was developed to maximize ridership while maintaining a positive revenue to operating cost ratio. A train operating plan is used to develop operating train miles which can be used to verify rider demand load factors. The summary provides estimated ridership, passenger miles, and other usage statistics. The second section develops indirect societal benefits for the construction and operation of the HSL. These savings are amalgamated in the summary and compared to the infrastructure investment. The third section develops preliminary environmental benefits, primarily air quality at this stage, which can be used to compare transportation investments. Additional data is being developed in Volume 3 that will compile fleet acquisition costs, fleet maintenance, crew costs, power costs, and other operating costs. These will be used to develop a preliminary business plan for potential Train Operating Companies (TOCs) to make proposals for service delivery. Programmatic costs for the development of the line, contract management, and maintenance of way will also be added to complete the plan for the full high speed rail project.

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Volume Ridership and Revenue Current Travel Patterns Air Travel Bus Travel Amtrak Travel Commuter Rail Service Auto Travel Market Share of High Speed Rail World Experience and US Modeling of Shifts from Other Modes to HSR Application to the Chicago St. Louis High Speed Rail Corridor Air Amtrak Kankakee Commuter Rail Intercity Bus Auto Induced Ridership O Hare Airport Segment Passenger Miles and Revenue Summary Economic Impacts HSL Corridor Job Creation Benefits User Value-of-Time Benefits User Accident Reduction Benefits Consumer Surplus Benefits Freight Grade-Crossing Separation Highway-User Safety and Time Benefits Economic Impacts from Direct Service to O Hare Airport Economic Impacts for the Principal Cities Served Economic Benefits for Chicago Economic Benefits for Kankakee Economic Benefits for Champaign-Urbana Economic Benefits for Decatur Economic Benefits for Springfield...65

4 8.7.6 Economic Benefits for St. Louis Summary Statistics Environmental Benefits Carbon Footprint Noise Water Land Use Summary...74

5 7.0 Ridership and Revenue Introduction of 220 mph high speed rail between Chicago and St. Louis via Champaign and Springfield is expected to significantly change the existing travel market and provide new opportunities for residents and visitors to travel between corridor cities. The ridership and revenue analysis below represents a conservative approach to estimating the use of the system by using proven evaluation techniques and reliable data sources. 7.1 Current Travel Patterns The current travel patterns in this High Speed Line (HSL) corridor can be estimated from a number of sources. Daily ridership data exists for air travel and Amtrak. Auto travel can be approximated from indirect sources. Bus travel can be estimated based on the capacity of trips now being operated. The following presents the data that was obtained on current travel patterns and the estimates made for travel by each mode Air Travel The DOT 1 makes available several types of data, including a 10% sample of all passenger itineraries showing their origin and destination (regardless of plane changes and changes in flight number). This data for 2008, expanded by 10 to estimate the actual travel flows, is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Annual Air Travel Between Origins and Destination in the HSL Corridor (2008) Cities Passengers Chicago Bloomington 2,490 Chicago Champaign 4,920 Chicago Decatur 0 Chicago Springfield 3,790 Chicago St. Louis 640,020 Champaign Decatur 0 Champaign Springfield 0 Champaign St. Louis 0 Decatur Springfield 0 Decatur St. Louis 0 Springfield* St. Louis 50 TOTAL 651,270 *Service Discontinued Note that while there are higher numbers of passengers travelling by air between some of these cities, such as between Chicago and both Bloomington and Champaign-Urbana, the actual origins or destinations of these passengers is outside the area served by the proposed HSL so 1 Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)

6 they have not been included. The extension of the HSL to O Hare Airport to serve these passengers is discussed later Bus Travel Currently there are two primary bus companies serving the Chicago St. Louis corridor. Megabus provides three daily non-stop trips from Union Station in Chicago to Union Station in St. Louis for a maximum fare of $20. Travel time is between 5 hours, 30 minutes and 6 hours. Passenger capacity on their buses range from 44 to 79 seats. Greyhound also operates service between these cities. Their travel time is between 5 hours, 10 minutes and 6 hours, 50 minutes. Greyhound s fare is also higher than Megabus at a maximum of $45. There are also additional bus operators in the market between Chicago and Champaign-Urbana, which provide service between the University of Illinois and various locations in the Chicago area. The number of daily passengers using bus service in the corridor is proprietary and not available. However considering the capacity of these services and average load factors, total intercity bus ridership can reliably be estimated at approximately 500 passengers per day, or 180,000 per year. We have allocated this estimated ridership between the city pairs in proportion to the estimated auto travel, excepting the higher ridership between Chicago and Champaign (because of the presence of the University of Illinois and limited rail service) and lower ridership between Chicago and Kankakee (because the short trip encourages auto travel) Amtrak Travel Amtrak currently has several routes that provide service to the cities to be served by the HSL: the Downstate Illinois routes, the Texas Eagle, the City of New Orleans, and the lllini Saluki. Currently, either three or five rail trips each direction serve each of the city pair shown below. Total ridership between these city pairs for fiscal 2009 is shown in Table 2 below. Table 2: Amtrak Annual Ridership Between City Pairs Served Chicago - Kankakee Chicago - Champaign Chicago - St Louis Chicago - Springfield Springfield - St Louis Northbound 2,611 48,362 59,034 49,558 7,324 Southbound 2,612 52,306 60,116 48,277 7, Commuter Rail Service The Kankakee County Commuter Transit Phase II Feasibility Study estimated that a commuter service operated Kankakee County to downtown Chicago would have 255 daily boardings each direction between central Kankakee and Chicago. This study assumed four northbound and one southbound trip during the morning peak, and matching service during the evening peak. Peak period headways would be between 15 and 30 minutes and the fare structure was assumed to match Metra s fares. Assuming that the first train left St. Louis at 5 AM, riders on three of the four Kankakee Commuter Rail trains would be better served by the HSL they would still be able to arrive at Chicago at the same time as the modeled commuter rail service, but with significantly less travel time (approximately one hour less travel time). Total travel on all modes between Kankakee and Chicago is significantly higher than what is expected on commuter rail. Based on the 2000 Census work trips from Kankakee to Chicago, doubled to approximate total trip making, we estimate that there are 700,000 annual trips in each direction, including all modes

7 7.1.5 Auto Travel Auto travel between the HSL cities can be estimated in two ways, based on vehicle counts and based on the 1995 American Travel Survey. The 1995 American Travel Survey provides information on the mode and purpose of a sample of trips between major metropolitan areas. Data is available for travel between Chicago and St. Louis, which is presented in Table 3 below. Table 3: Mode Split of Travel in 1995 Chicago to St. Louis to St. Louis Chicago % Personal Auto 74% 71% % Commercial Airline 17% 25% % Other Modes 8% 4% % Business 12% 33% % Pleasure 70% 56% % Other 18% 11% Based on the 1995 data, the ratio of commercial airline trips to trips by other modes (primarily bus and rail) should be about 3.6:1. Based on the above data (as summarized in Table 5), the ratio of commercial airline trips to trips by other modes between Chicago and St. Louis is 4.0:1. Considering that some potential other modes, such as charter air and general aviation have been excluded from this calculation, this indicates that these ratios still provide a reasonable estimate. Therefore based on this data, there should be about 3.3 times as many auto trips between Chicago and St. Louis as there are trips by commercial air. Considering that there are just over 640,000 annual air trips between Chicago and St. Louis, this indicates that there should be about 2,100,000 annual auto trips between the two cities. The annual total travel between the two cities would therefore be about 2,900,000 trips. A reasonable basic assumption regarding travel between the other cities served by the HSL is that the current ratio of auto to rail travelers should be fairly constant between these cities. The ratio for travel between Chicago and St. Louis developed above is 17.6 auto travelers for every rail traveler. For the markets where there is rail data, the resulting auto travelers are shown in Table 4. (Total travel between Chicago and Kankakee is derived from 2000 Census data, not from Amtrak ridership, as discussed earlier.) Table 4: Estimated Annual Auto Travelers Between City Pairs Served (Derived from Amtrak Ridership) Chicago - Champaign Chicago - Springfield Springfield - St Louis Northbound 852, , ,084 Southbound 921, , ,484 TOTAL 1,774,258 1,724, ,

8 Assuming that people travelling by auto had an average vehicle occupancy of 1.2 people per auto, this would be the equivalent of about 4,000 vehicle trips per day between Chicago and each of Champaign and Springfield, and 600 vehicle trips per day between St. Louis and Springfield. Considering that the segment with the lowest daily travel volumes on I 57 between Chicago and Champaign is 14,000 vehicles, on I 55 between Chicago and Springfield is 19,000 vehicles, and on I 55 between East St, Louis and Springfield is 23,700 vehicles, the estimates of auto travelers are very conservative. Champaign-Urbana and Springfield can be expected to generate much greater travel from other locations in Illinois than most other cities of comparable size. Champaign-Urbana is home to the University of Illinois, with an enrollment in Fall 2007 of 42,326. Springfield has ridership generated by virtue of the fact that it is the state capital, as well as tourism travel generated by the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library & Museum, as well as other Lincoln sites, and the Illinois State Fairgrounds. Assuming that Springfield and Champaign-Urbana can therefore be treated as having about double their actual population for estimating travel from other cities in Illinois, it is possible to estimate the travel between the cities along the HSL route based on the population of the cities. The results of this, together with the data presented in the above tables, are combined in Table 5 to show the estimated current travel by mode. Table 5: Estimated Total Annual Travel Between City Pairs in the High Speed Line Corridor Cities Air Amtrak Bus Auto Chicago Kankakee 0 5,223 18,777 1,376,000 Chicago Champaign 4, ,668 65,723 1,774,258 Chicago Decatur , ,679 Chicago Springfield 3,790 97,835 31,937 1,724,326 Chicago St. Louis 640, ,150 38,895 2,100,000 Champaign Decatur ,469 Champaign Springfield 0 0 1,031 55,651 Champaign St. Louis ,438 77,644 Decatur Springfield ,588 Decatur St. Louis 0 0 1,737 93,759 Springfield St. Louis 50 14,387 4, , Market Share of High Speed Rail World Experience and US Modeling of Shifts from Other Modes to High Speed Rail (HSR) In European and Asian countries, HSR can be the dominant mode of transportation between cities. For example, on some European HSR routes, such as Paris-Lyon or Frankfurt-Cologne, over 90% of all passenger traffic between the cities (including auto travel) is estimated to be by train. This market share develops quickly. In the three years after HSR service was introduced in the Paris Lyon corridor, rail s share of the air/rail market increased from 28% to 52% and it

9 has subsequently further increased substantially. 2 Indeed, rail has become so dominant that airlines have abandoned or dramatically reduced service in some markets: EasyJet abandoned its Paris-Marseilles route (a 480 mile distance) in 2006 when the HSR share of travel grew to 69%, reducing the total daily flights (all carriers) in the market from 23 to BMI discontinued its Paris-London flights in 2007 after Eurostar obtained a 70% market share in that market. The Paris-Brussels market, where one hour air flights compete with one hour 25 minute rail service, is now served by only one direct flight per day. According to officials of the SNCF (the French HSR operator) where the HSR journey is 4.5 hours of less, HSR captures about 50% of the market, while if the HSR travel time is 2 hours or less, HSR captures about 90% of the market. This is accomplished with HSR fares that are generally comparable to the fares for air travel. Another corridor similar to Chicago / St. Louis is Madrid Sevilla, a distance of about 290 miles. In the year prior to the introduction of HSR, travel between these cities was approximately 60% by auto, 15% bus, 14% train, and 11% air. One year after the 1992 introduction of HSR, this new service served 52% of the passengers between the cities, reducing auto travel to 34%, bus to 8%, conventional train to 2%, and air to 4%. 34% of the HSR ridership was newly induced demand. This converts to HSR capturing about 24% of previous auto travelers, 29% of previous bus travelers, 80% of previous train riders and 51% of previous air travelers. HSR fares in this market, while higher than on the previous rail service, are 60% to 75% lower than fares for air travel. None of the higher speed lines operating or proposed in the US expect to have market shares that compare with those in Europe. The only operation in the United States with higher speeds is the Acela Express, with operating speeds of up 150 mph for short distances, but only average speeds of 65 mph on the Boston New York segment and 78 mph on the New York Washington segment. This contrasts with an average of 115 mph on the Paris Lyon line and 117 mph on the Madrid Seville line. Even with significantly lower average speeds, from 2000, when Amtrak introduced Acela, to 2008, Amtrak s share of the New York / Washington, D.C. air/rail market grew from 45% to 62%. 45 In its 2006 report Intercity Passenger Rail National Policy and Strategies Needed to Maximize Public Benefits from Federal Expenditures, the GAO graphed Amtrak s share of the air/rail market compared with rail travel time for selected origins and destination. This graph showed Amtrak with a high of approximately 95% share of the air/rail market for New York / Philadelphia a 1.5 hour travel time descending in close to a straight line to a 40% share for Boston / New York and about 28% for Seattle / Portland (both corridors with about 3.5 hour travel times by rail). New York / Baltimore is the city pair with the closest travel time to that proposed for the Chicago / St. Louis HSL approximately 2 hours and Amtrak had about a 65% share of the combined air and rail market between those cities. These market shares for Amtrak are achieved despite the fact that Acela fares are considerably higher than those for air travel, especially for travel in the corridor between New York City and Washington, D.C. In estimates developed for other HSR projects around the United States, the share of current auto and air travelers who are expected to switch to using the HSR vary greatly. The table below summarizes several corridor studies giving the year of the study, the anticipated speed 2 Market Assessment of High Speed rail Service in the Calgary Edmonton Corridor, TEMS, Inc/ / Oliver Wyman 3 CNBC European Business, Sunday March 1, Crowd s Heed Amtrak s All Aboard, Wall Street Journal, August 23, Amtrak s northeast Corridor Facts and Background Information, Amtrak

10 of the train, anticipated average fares per mile, and the percent of current travelers by mode that are expected to switch to HSR. 6 Table 6: High Speed Rail Studies Mode Shifts Corridor Year Speed Fare* Mode Shifts California Statewide $ % air, 6.5% auto, 27% rail Cleveland Columbus - 2.0% air, 1.7% auto., 16.2% $0.31 Cincinnati bus Boston - Montreal $ % air, 0.2% auto Tampa - Orlando $ % auto, minimal current air service New York - Buffalo $ % air, 6% auto, 29% rail New York - Boston $ % air, 7% auto, 15% rail Las Vegas Victorville, CA $ % air, 23.6% auto, 22.0% charter bus * Average fare per mile used in study These anticipated mode shifts vary greatly, but in general HSR is seen as most competitive with air travel, drawing between 13% and 33% of current air travelers (total range is 2% to 67% of current air travelers) with fares set at between 70% and 95% of air travel fares. This is reasonable because in either case the traveler needs to rely on public transportation, a taxi or renting an auto to complete the journey from the train station to the traveler s ultimate destination. The difference in competitiveness is likely related to competitiveness of the main travel segments (speed and frequency of rail versus air) as well as how well the final travel segment is served. This same competitiveness between HSR and air is shown in the European experience and that of Amtrak. HSR s competitiveness with auto is much less than that with air, both in the U.S. studies shown above and in the limited data available on the European experience. In the rail studies shown above, one study anticipated HSR capturing less than 1 % of current auto ridership, while the others ranged from 1.7% in the Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati corridor (for 150 mph service) to 23.6% in the Las Vegas Victorville corridor. In both the high and low estimates, the HSR fare was approximately $0.30 per mile. These differences likely relate to several factors: Current mode choices in the travel market The speed of the HSR service offered The cost/fare of HSR and the competing services The quality of public transportation in each end market The need for local travel in each end market For example, the auto market share of the Las Vegas Victorville service is so high because most of the travel is residents of southern California leaving their cars at Victorville and traveling to Las Vegas, especially to the Strip. As about 68% of those staying at the Strip never leave the area (and over 20% never leave the property at which they are staying), a considerable share of current drivers are expected to be willing to leave their autos behind. For Tampa Orlando, the auto market share captured was high because there was limited air service (because of the short distance) those riders who would have been well served by air service (and likely to switch from that to HSR) did not have the convenient and frequent service they would desire 6 Desert Xpress Ridership Forecast Review, Cambridge Systematics, February 29,

11 and were therefore using auto. For most of the other city pairs, travelers would chose auto over air if their ultimate origins and destinations were not conveniently served by public transportation or if they have a strong preference for private auto over public transportation. In most corridors studied bus is either not a significant mode of travel or little diversion was expected. In large part that is due to the fact that when good air service is provided between city pairs, the intercity bus service generally carries riders who are relatively price sensitive and travel time insensitive, while HSR is targeted at individuals who are relatively more sensitive to travel time and quality, and less sensitive to price. Since HSR is generally priced to be competitive with air travel, a different market from bus riders, it is generally assumed that there will be little diversion from bus. However, all riders are sensitive to travel time, service quality and price, so that diversions from each mode will depend on the specific characteristics of that mode and of the proposed HSR service. The Las Vegas Victorville study found that travelers in that market were highly sensitive to fares, with elasticities ranging from -0.8 to -2.1, i.e., that a 10% reduction in fares would leading to an 8% to 21% increase in ridership. Other studies have estimated that elasticity of ridership with respect to fares for current Amtrak and VIA Rail service as between and Application to the Chicago St. Louis High Speed Rail Corridor As discussed above, HSR captures very different market shares from the competing modes. Furthermore, its capture from competing markets will increase over time as riders become familiar with its advantages. In this section, we have estimated the market share for the HSL approximately two or three years after it is implemented. At this time many people will be familiar with HSR but there will not yet have been any changes in urban development or housing and business location decisions. Each competing mode will be discussed separately below Air The major air travel market in the corridor is St. Louis to Chicago, with a current flying time of just over one hour, but the actual elapsed time for passengers includes significant airport processing time resulting in a typical 3 hour journey time. As travel time on the HSL is expected to be just under two hours and the frequency of service higher and the fares lower, the HSL will be highly competitive. In Europe, HSR would be expected to eventually capture over a 90% market share compared with air. In the Northeast Corridor, based on New York / Baltimore, HSR has captured about a 65% market share of the air and rail market with a significantly lower average speed despite having higher fares than for air travel. We anticipate that the Chicago St. Louis HSL service would obtain at minimum the same share as in the New York / Baltimore corridor (65%) and a maximum of 80% of the total air and rail travelers. The impact of service to O Hare is discussed later Amtrak Considering that the proposed HSL service will have faster and more frequent service than Amtrak s current service (which has been assumed to remain unchanged), although at somewhat higher fares, we believe that a large portion of current Amtrak riders will switch to using the HSL service. The high market share is estimated at 80%, the same as that experienced in the Madrid Sevilla corridor. The low market share is half of that, 40%. Passengers travelling through on existing trains to points beyond the HSL corridor are not expected to make any change

12 7.2.5 Kankakee Commuter Rail The commuter rail study used a one-way fare of $6.85 from Kankakee to downtown Chicago, while the fare on the HSL would be $8.00 if the standard class fare were pro-rated based on mileage. Considering that transit riders value travel time at between $10 and $30 per hour, we believe that about 60% - 80% of the expected daily commuters who could use the HSL would do so, or 45% - 60% of the total expected ridership 7. The other anticipated riders on the Commuter Rail either would not be adequately served by the HSL (because the first arrival in Chicago is too late) or would opt for an alternative mode because of the higher cost of the HSL. The anticipated ridership generate would be approximately passengers per day in each direction. We have annualized this by multiplying it by 2 to get total daily passengers and then by 230 for the average commuting days (considering weekends, holidays and vacation days). This totals 52,900 71,300. It should be noted that, in general, daily commuting to downtown employment is not typical on HSR systems as the pricing is more suited to individuals with occasional business in major cities, special recreational excursions, or other one-time uses. The lack of commuter service from Kankakee and its proximity to Chicago makes this a realistic exception. In addition to the commuters switching from the potential commuter rail service, some share of the individuals travelling by auto and bus would also switch to the HSL. We have estimated this as resulting in between a 20% and 100% increase in the ridership between Kankakee and Chicago Intercity Bus For the Chicago St. Louis market, air travel is currently significantly faster, more convenient (in terms of number of trips per day), and more expensive than intercity bus. While travelers choose their preferred mode of travel for a wide variety of reasons, under these circumstances, riders on intercity bus are generally those with higher price sensitivities and lower sensitivity to travel speed and frequency of service. Considering that the standard fare on the HSL would be more than twice the current typical bus fare, it is unlikely that there will be a substantial diversion of passengers from intercity bus to the HSL in this market. We have estimated a range of between 2% and 10% of bus riders in this market switching to the HSL. For service in the other markets served, such as Chicago to Champaign-Urbana, there is currently less convenient air service and more convenient bus service. Furthermore, there is significantly less difference in the speed of travel between bus and air (after considering the check-in time required at the airport). Since there is also expected to be less of a difference in fares between bus and the HSL, we expect a significantly higher diversion from this bus service. The best estimate for this diversion is probably the Las Vegas Victorville corridor, as most travelers to Springfield and Champaign-Urbana will be traveling to a limited number of locations (government offices and the University of Illinois respectively) and will have limited need for an auto at their destination. After adjusting for the difference in prices, frequency of service, and travel speed, this would indicate about 50% of the bus riders in these markets would switch to the high speed rail. We have bracketed the estimate for Las Vegas Victorville, estimating that the diversion will be between 40% and 60% of current bus riders. 7 Many of the commuters on the potential Kankakee Commuter Rail will not be daily commuters but rather individuals who travel to Chicago for work a few times per week or per month. As such, the impact of the higher fare would have a much lower impact than it would on individuals who make a daily commute to Chicago

13 7.2.7 Auto This is the most difficult market to estimate since it includes such a broad range of individuals traveling for multiple reasons to multiple destinations. There is a cluster of expectations in the 6% to 7% range (including the expectations for New York Boston, New York Buffalo and California Statewide), however these are generally based on higher fares and slower travel speeds than is planned for this service. Excluding the Victorville Las Vegas study which provides a service that is not comparable to that between two major metropolitan areas, and the adjusted average diversion from auto is 13.3%. Considering that Chicago has a high quality transit network, that St. Louis has good service on MetroLink between its downtown core (including the rail station) and several major suburban centers, we believe that 13.3% is generally a reasonable estimate for the mode split from auto for the Chicago St. Louis service. This is supported by the existence of the Kankakee station, which provides an alternative boarding site for residents of the southern Chicago metropolitan area, as well as the St. Louis Metro East station, which provides improved access for residents of the Illinois side of the St. Louis metropolitan area. We believe that a reasonable low estimate of the diversion from auto would be about half of this level or 6.6%. The high estimate would be an equal amount higher than the 13.3% midpoint, or 19.9%. This is still well below the auto diversion actually experienced in the Madrid Sevilla corridor. The market for travel between Chicago and Springfield or Champaign is more similar to Las Vegas Victorville since the travel to Springfield and Champaign will be to a single location or a small number of relatively close locations (the State offices and University of Illinois, respectively). For these markets we will include Las Vegas Victorville in the average, increasing it to 18.7%, and use this as the mid-point. For these markets we will treat the 13.3% as the low estimate and 24.1% as the high estimate of diversion. The results of these estimates are shown in Tables 7 and 8 below. Table 7: High Annual Ridership Estimate for Chicago St. Louis High Speed Rail and Other Modes City Pairs HSL Air Amtrak Bus Auto TOTAL Chicago Kankakee 142, ,045 7,511 1,248,845 1,400,000 Chicago Champaign 550,959 1,525 20,134 26,289 1,346,662 1,945,569 Chicago Decatur 223, , , ,101 Chicago Springfield 515,608 1,175 19,567 12,775 1,308,764 1,857,888 Chicago St. Louis 958, ,406 23,830 35,005 1,682,100 2,898,065 Champaign Decatur 4, ,777 19,829 Champaign Springfield 14, ,239 56,682 Champaign St. Louis 19, ,932 79,112 Decatur Springfield 8, ,493 34,210 Decatur St. Louis 23, ,163 95,495 Springfield St. Louis 75, ,877 1, , ,702 TOTAL 2,537, ,131 67,453 92,103 6,664,421 9,562,

14 Table 8: Low Annual Ridership Estimate for Chicago St. Louis High Speed Rail and Other Modes City Pairs HSL Air Amtrak Bus Auto TOTAL Chicago Kankakee 63, ,134 11,266 1,322,120 1,400,000 Chicago Champaign 305,436 2,017 60,401 39,434 1,538,281 1,945,569 Chicago Decatur 124, , , ,101 Chicago Springfield 283,480 1,554 58,701 19,162 1,494,991 1,857,888 Chicago St. Louis 564, ,408 71,490 38,117 1,961,400 2,898,065 Champaign Decatur 2, ,880 19,829 Champaign Springfield 7, ,249 56,682 Champaign St. Louis 10, ,317 79,112 Decatur Springfield 4, ,121 34,210 Decatur St. Louis 13, ,042 81,289 95,495 Springfield St. Louis 41, ,632 2, , ,702 TOTAL 1,422, , , ,763 7,548,242 9,562, Induced Ridership When a new mode of travel is introduced to a market, or a significant improvement is made to a mode of travel, new individuals choose to make the trip that is being served and existing travelers chose to increase their frequency of travel. These impacts are jointly referred to as induced trips. The induced trips can vary widely between different services. In 1993, the first year after the Madrid Sevilla HSR service was implemented, 34% of the HSR trips were induced trips, ones that had not been made before the HSR existed. Substantial increases have continued since that time. Studies of HSR in Japan have estimated induced demand as adding between 6% and 23% to ridership, and France s Sud-Est TGV was estimated as adding 26% to ridership. Estimates of induced ridership on the Las Vegas Victorville HSR vary from 0% to 48%. From discussions with officials in several of the cities, it is our understanding that it would be reasonable to expect some level of induced ridership, especially by individuals from the smaller cities traveling to sports and cultural events in Chicago and St. Louis. In the longer run, induced ridership could be significantly higher, as individuals factor the HSR into their decisions regarding locations for living, working and education. This has been seen in places such as Korea and Spain, where increasing numbers of people commute to work and school by HSR and smaller cities along the HSR lines have reversed their economic and population declines. Estimates for induced demand in most North American studies have been significantly below the levels estimated as actually occurring elsewhere in the world. Some of these estimates are set forth in Table 9 below

15 Table 9: Estimates of Induced Demand in other North American Studies 8 Cleveland Columbus - Cincinnati 6.5% California Statewide HSR (Option B) 6.3% Miami Orlando - Tampa 16% Boston Montreal (mid speed, high frequency) 2.8% Tampa Lakeland - Orlando 2.9% - 5.2% The Miami Orlando Tampa route study has significantly higher induced demand than any of the other studies, which may be related to the special entertainment opportunities in the Orlando area. The other studies indicate a range of induced demand of between 2.8% and 6.5%. Based on these studies and the analyses of the experience of other countries, we have estimated ranges of induced demand. For travel between Chicago and St. Louis, we have estimated a range of between 2.8% and 6.5%, consistent with the range of most North American studies. For travel between the these two major cities and the smaller cities in the corridor, as well as between these smaller cities, we believe that the actual experience from other countries provides better guidance, leading to a range between 6.5% (the North American estimate) and 24% (the average of the values from Spain, Japan and France provided above). The impact of this induced demand is shown in Table 10 on the next page. Table 10: Induced and Total Demand, Excluding O Hare Airport Segment Low High Cities Base Induced Total Base Induced Total Chicago Kankakee 63,480 4,126 67, ,600 34, ,824 Chicago Champaign 305,436 19, , , , ,189 Chicago Decatur 124,497 8, , ,543 53, ,193 Chicago Springfield 283,480 18, , , , ,354 Chicago St. Louis 564,650 15, , ,723 62,317 1,021,040 Champaign Decatur 2, ,911 4,908 1,178 6,086 Champaign Springfield 7, ,322 14,030 3,367 17,398 Champaign St. Louis 10, ,629 19,596 4,703 24,299 Decatur Springfield 4, ,023 8,468 2,032 10,500 Decatur St. Louis 13, ,020 23,638 5,673 29,311 Springfield St. Louis 41,387 2,690 44,078 75,472 18,113 93,585 TOTAL 1,422,278 71,556 1,493,834 2,537, ,234 2,978, O Hare Airport Segment A key element of the HSL, but with distinctive impacts on demand, is operating HSR service between downtown Chicago and O Hare airport. This segment would potentially attract individuals who currently travel from one of the other cities served by the HSL and connect through O Hare airport, by air, by bus feeder service, or by driving themselves to O Hare. It would also provide an improved link between O Hare airport and Chicago s principal convention 8 Market Assessment of High Speed rail Service in the Calgary Edmonton Corridor, TEMS, Inc/ / Oliver Wyman

16 center (McCormick Place) and for residents of Chicago s northwestern suburbs to the cities served by the HSL. 9 With respect to individuals connecting by air through O Hare airport, the USDOT makes available a count of all passenger trips between all airports. The difference between this number and the numbers shown in Table 1 would be those individuals continuing through O Hare to other airports. These numbers are shown in Table 11 below. Table 11: Annual Air Passengers Traveling To/From Champaign, Springfield and St. Louis Transferring Through O Hare Champaign-Urbana, IL 130,307 Springfield, IL 70,774 St. Louis, MO 690,646 TOTAL 891,727 The passengers from Champaign and Springfield would have a trade-off between the more convenient HSL (with approximately hourly service compared with the five current daily trips between Champaign and O Hare) and the slightly shorter travel time by air compared with rail and the faster check-in and security process at the smaller airports. There is also an issue of the fares at the time this report was prepared, it was $60 cheaper to fly from Champaign to Boston (for example) through O Hare airport than it was to fly from O Hare airport to Boston so a rider on HSL currently would be paying more for the flight from O Hare as well as paying the fare on HSR. A few of these market anomalies may continue, but more likely air carriers will arrange for code sharing with HSL trains acting as flights, allowing airlines to provide better service to their hubs at lower cost. This has been very successful in France and Germany, with the Frankfurt-Cologne HSR providing virtually all of the hub transfers, including through checked baggage with HSR. Considering the existence of this trade-off the wide range of potential fare differentials, and the experience elsewhere in the world, we believe that the HSL would attract about 50% - 60% of current transferring air passengers, and substantially more if airlines reduce their service and/or implement code-sharing with the trains. Travelers from the northern and eastern parts of the St. Louis metropolitan region who would be transferring planes at O Hare could have improved service by taking the HSL to O Hare airport. For residents of the eastern area, the travel time on the HSL from the Metro East station to O Hare would be approximately 2 hours, while the combined travel time on MetroLink from the easternmost stations and flight time from St. Louis to O Hare is also approximately 2 hours, 3 hours if airport processing time is included. We anticipate that approximately 10% of those currently flying from St. Louis to O Hare and transferring to other flights there will find it equally or more advantageous to use the HSL. We anticipate that the HSL will attract a share of these individuals equal to its share of other air passengers. There are also several types of airport service from Champaign and Springfield to O Hare airport, and many individuals also drive to O Hare. No information was available on the size of these markets, but we estimate that it is at least as large as the number of passengers traveling by air from Champaign and Springfield through O Hare. Riders on these services for Kankakee and Decatur were estimated based on their population and using Springfield as the base. We 9 There is also a potential market for travelers between Chicago s northwest suburbs and downtown. This market should be analyzed during further analysis of the HSR

17 estimate that the HSL would obtain a share of these passengers similar to its share of intercity bus passengers from these cities or 40% - 60%. We believe that a substantial number of individuals also drive from other parts of the HSL corridor to O Hare airport. This is supported by the fact that there are a large number of hotels near O Hare with airport parking that cater to individuals from who currently drive long distances to access flights at O Hare. However, no data is currently available regarding the size of this market. We conservatively estimate that it will be at least equal to the number of individuals who chose either air feeder service or bus feeder service. Considering cost of parking at O Hare airport and the fact that automobiles are not needed (unless stops are required before or after the air travel) would suggest that HSR is more competitive with auto than for most intercity trips. However, many airport auto trips are taken by families or other groups travelling together which raises the cost of alternative modes compared with auto travel. These two factors roughly balance each other, so that we believe that the HSL would capture approximately the same share of auto trips as estimated for intercity travel from smaller cities, 13% to 24%. In addition to carrying passengers between downstate cities and O Hare, the service will carry a significant number of passengers between McCormick Place and O Hare. People attending conventions typically leave for the airport from McCormick Place at the end of their Chicago visit. This is a trip that is now very difficult and time consuming. By public transportation it requires riding a bus to downtown (most take the rider to Michigan Avenue, requiring a three block walk to transfer to the Blue Line, for a 40, or more, minute trip to O Hare). By taxi or airport van, there is a high risk of being delayed in frequent traffic congestion on the Kennedy Expressway. Thus, they need to leave very early. By contrast, passengers boarding the HSL would have a fast, and reliable, trip time. The average total annual attendance at conventions at McCormick Place is 1,037,000. Roughly 85% of these convention attendees stay overnight in Chicago, and 52% of those individuals reach Chicago by air. Assuming that 60% of the air travelers use O Hare airport and that the HSL attracts 30% - 50% of the individuals it could serve, this would mean that about to individuals would use the HSL to access McCormick Place. Almost all travelers would make 2 one-way trips (from and to the airport) for a total of 165,000 to 275,000 annual trips. The resulting additional ridership on the HSL with regard to serving O Hare Airport and the northwestern suburbs is shown in Table 12. Table 12: Additional Annual Ridership Generated by O Hare Airport Segment Low High McCormick Place 165, ,000 Kankakee, IL 8,288 13,135 Champaign-Urbana, IL 145, ,370 Decatur, IL 24,374 38,631 Springfield, IL 79, ,284 St. Louis, MO 40,748 47,655 TOTAL 463, ,075 Finally, it must be noted that service to O Hare would not just serve the airport, but would also dramatically improve service to and from Chicago s northwestern suburbs. This region has a

18 population almost as large as St. Louis, many of whom prefer to avoid driving into or around Chicago. It is also a nexus of ground travel, similar to downtown Chicago. There are a wide variety of ground transportation options to locations throughout the northwestern suburbs as well as locations in Iowa and Wisconsin. We estimate that the increased access from this region would result in increasing the ridership between Chicago and the other cities by 5% to 10%. Ridership between cities excluding Chicago would not be impacted. The impact of this induced ridership, plus the ridership generated by McCormick Place, is presented in Table 13. Table 13: Total Annual Ridership of HSL Including O Hare Airport, Including Induced Regional Travel Low Cities Base Induced Airport Total Base Induced Airport Total O'Hare McCormick Pl , , , ,000 Chicago Kankakee 67,606 3,380 8,288 79, ,824 17,682 13, ,641 Chicago Champaign 325,289 16, , , ,189 68, , ,878 Chicago Decatur 132,590 6,629 24, , ,193 27,719 38, ,544 Chicago Springfield 301,906 15,095 79, , ,354 63, , ,573 Chicago St. Louis 580,460 29,023 40, ,231 1,021, ,104 47,655 1,170,799 Champaign Decatur 2, ,911 6, ,086 Champaign Springfield 8, ,322 17, ,398 Champaign St. Louis 11, ,629 24, ,299 Decatur Springfield 5, ,023 10, ,500 Decatur St. Louis 14, ,020 29, ,311 Springfield St. Louis 44, ,078 93, ,585 TOTAL 1,493,834 70, ,621 2,027,847 2,978, , ,075 3,940, Passenger Miles and Revenue Based on the above ridership between cities served by the HSL, it is possible to calculate the passenger-miles expected to be traveled and the revenue expected to be generated. Table 15 presents the distances between the city pairs and the proposed Standard Class (advance purchase) and Business Class (one day prior purchase) fares. Support for the proposed fares is presented in Table 14 comparing existing intercity rail, other HSR and air fares, as well as proposed HSL fares, in a variety of corridors. The fares between most cities are based on a Standard Class fare of approximately $0.15 per mile and a Business Class fare of approximately $0.30 per mile. High

19 Table 14: Proposed Fare Level Comparisons One Way Fares per Seat Service: From: To: Approx. Mileage: Business Class Fare 1 Standard Class Fare 2 Standard Class Fare Per Mile Traveled (Cents) Amtrak - Acela 3 DC Union NY Penn 215 $133 n/a 4 n/a Amtrak - Northeast Regional 3 DC Union NY Penn 215 $108 $ Southwest Airlines Chicago Midway St. Louis Lambert 265 $134 $ Proposed Chicago - St. Louis 220 mph HSR Service 5 Chicago Union St. Louis Multimodal 307 $92 $ Proposed California HSR Proposed California HSR Bakersfield San Francisco 284 n/a $ LA Fresno 255 n/a $ TGV Paris Lyon 260 $159 6 $ Amtrak - Lincoln Service Chicago Union St. Louis Multimodal 284 $81 $ Notes: 1. All Business Class fares are based on one day prior purchase rates. 2. All Standard Class fares are based on advanced purchase rates. 3. Acela and Northeast Regional: normal fares utilized, no Summer 2009 Fare Sales were utilized. 4. Standard Class is not provided on Acela Express. 5. Proposed fares for Chicago - St. Louis HSR Service are approximate and will be dependant upon future market conditions. 6. US Dollar fares based upon Euro/USD conversion rates of 07/28/

20 Table 15: Distances and Proposed Fares Business Standard Cities Miles Class Class O'Hare McCormick Pl 17 $20 $10 Chicago Kankakee 56 $16 $ 8 Chicago Champaign 135 $40 $20 Chicago Decatur 180 $54 $27 Chicago Springfield 217 $66 $33 Chicago St. Louis 304 $92 $46 Champaign Decatur 45 $14 $ 7 Champaign Springfield 82 $24 $12 Champaign St. Louis 169 $52 $26 Decatur Springfield 37 $12 $ 6 Decatur St. Louis 124 $38 $19 Springfield St. Louis 87 $26 $13 Passenger-miles and revenue are presented in Table 16 below. For revenue, 80% of riders are assumed to pay Standard Class fares and 20% pay Business Class fares. For simplicity in calculation, trips between O Hare and cities other than Chicago have been divided into 2 segments, O Hare to Chicago (where they are included with the trips between O Hare Airport and McCormick Place) and Chicago to the ultimate destination. Note that both passengermiles and revenue are presented in thousands. Table 16: Passenger-Miles and Revenue Passenger-Miles (000) Revenue (000) Cities Low High Low High O'Hare McCormick Pl 7,882 11,595 $5,563 $8,185 Chicago Kankakee 4,423 11,586 $761 $1,993 Chicago Champaign 65, ,369 $11,700 $22,821 Chicago Decatur 29,447 61,838 $5,300 $11,131 Chicago Springfield 85, ,111 $15,692 $32,138 Chicago St. Louis 197, ,923 $35,893 $64,628 Champaign Decatur $24 $51 Champaign Springfield 682 1,427 $120 $251 Champaign St. Louis 1,965 4,106 $363 $758 Decatur Springfield $36 $76 Decatur St. Louis 1,739 3,635 $320 $668 Springfield St. Louis 3,835 8,142 $688 $1,460 TOTAL 399, ,394 $76,460 $144,

21 7.6 Summary The planned high speed rail operation from O Hare to Chicago Union Station, McCormick Place, Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur, Springfield, St. Louis Metro East, and Downtown St. Louis running on one hour headways through most of the day (17 round trips) is expected to carry between 2.0 and 3.9 million passengers a year, producing gross revenue between $76 million and $144 million per year. 6,200 train trips per year over the 307 mile route will produce 1,903,400 train miles. Therefore the Passenger Miles per Train Miles (a standard measure of passenger rail efficiency) would be between 210 and 401. High speed train capacities vary between 250 and 550 passengers. Assuming a detailed schedule development using basic hourly service throughout the day with two-hourly service near the end of the day and assuming a ridership in the middle between the low and the high ranges, we would see a passenger mile count of 581,578,000 and a train mile count of 1,456,715 for PM/TM of 399 and, assuming a train capacity of 500, therefore an equivalent load factor of 80% per trip (a medium high to high norm for high speed rail services). This would generate gross revenue of $110 million per year and serve approximately 3 million riders per year

22 8.0 Economic Impacts ESH Consult conducted a limited ( Scoping Level ) study of the likely economic benefits to be gained from the newly proposed 220 mph Chicago-St. Louis HSL Line as part of Phase 2 of the TranSystems HSR study. The key areas considered included: User Benefits (Value-of-Time; Accident Reduction; Consumer Surplus) Highway-User Benefits (Accident Reduction and lost time saved through parallel freight grade crossing separations and closures) A specific analysis of the benefits of operation of the HSL to O Hare Airport Economic Impacts for the principal cities proposed to be served by the HSL, including details on net job creation both during construction and after start of revenue service. It was recognized that time and budget constraints would limit the analysis to statistical models, phone interviews with local officials, public data sources, and extrapolations from other US HSR corridor studies. 8.1 HSL Corridor Job Creation Benefits Significant creation of high quality jobs, both during the construction/implementation period and during ongoing revenue service is a major economic benefit of the proposed Chicago-St. Louis HSL route. Any major capital construction infrastructure project has a major positive impact on employment of skilled and unskilled labor, a public value well recognized in the highway industry. Similarly, the O&M labor needs of the eventual HSL will also create long-term skilled jobs. As with other prime job creation, we also observe the so-called multiplier effect which virtually doubles the ultimate number of long-term jobs. Chicago St. Louis HSL Job Creation Model Description In order to estimate the construction period job creation, we developed a simple linear forecasting model to predict jobs based on construction cost. The model inputs include: estimated construction cost by corridor sub-segment, average labor percentage of construction expenditure, average construction wages, and multiplier constant. In order to estimate the ongoing O&M jobs after service commences, we used a bottom up model calculating future job requirements by job-category and job location. Chicago St. Louis HSL Job Creation Model Results The model suggests that a remarkable 87,412 job-years of work will be required over the duration of the construction period. This averages to12,487 annual jobs over an assumed 7- year period. When the secondary multiplier effect (assumed here at 2.1), is included, this results in 26,224 total annual jobs for each of the seven construction years. Substantially more jobs are forecast for the greater Kankakee area than anywhere else because of the major ROW alignment cost resulting from a seven mile long double track trench for the HSL. The reason that there are job creation forecasts for the St. Louis metro area is relatively

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