2 nd Annual EV Safety Standards Summit Trends with the Electric Vehicle Market

Transcription

1 2 nd Annual EV Safety Standards Summit Trends with the Electric Vehicle Market s PRTM Management Consulting

2 Agenda Background and Introduction to s PRTM Management Consulting PRTM xev Market Perspective xev Market Growth and Emission Compliance Key Adoption Barriers - Affordability, Range and Infrastructure EV Safety Implications 2

3 Background and Introduction to s PRTM Management Consultants 3

4 PRTM Has Over 35 Years of Operational Strategy Experience Across Industry Value Chains Over 35 years of operational strategy and innovation Over 2,000 clients and 10,000 projects 90% level of repeat business Focus on hands-on implementation Operational innovation to drive growth, boost profitability, and set new standards for market leadership Major commercial and government sectors: Electronics, Software, and Services Automotive, Aerospace & Industrial Energy Consumer and Retail Public Sector Health Care Business Strategy When and why we ll win Operational Innovation Game Changing Ways to Win s PRTM Management Consulting Operational Excellence Executing to win Profit-up Industry Value Chains Raw Materials Innovation Scale-up Conversion Delivery Support Strategy Execution Performance Start-up 4

5 PRTM Has Built Deep emobility Expertise and Thought Leadership Across the EV Value Chain E-Mobility Value Chain Experience Thought Leadership Infrastructure Deployment Demand Management Smart Grid Technology Li-Ion Battery Ventures Power Electronics Vehicle Portfolio Supplier Management Cost & Complexity Reduction Market Entry Strategy Voice of Customer Service Innovation Business Model Policy Roadmaps Co-Author of 2 US Electrification Roadmaps for the Electrification Coalition World Bank China Study Frequent Publications, Press References and Conferences 5

6 PRTM xev Market Perspective 6

7 Multiple Mega-Trends Converge to Drive Vehicle Electrification and Disruptive Change... Megatrends and Drivers Global Climate Change Policies Oil Price and Independence Urban Congestion and Air Quality Technology Advances (Battery) Will Cause Electrification of the Vehicle Propulsion Global New Sales Penetration Other ICETech (BioFuel, Clean Diesel, DI, etc) HEV (incl Micro) HEV (Full, Mild) PHEV/ REV EV Plug-Ins = Disruptive Tech Smart Charging Infrastructure High Battery Cost New OEM Product Entries New Customer Segments Eco-System Partnerships Sources: PRTM Research, OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), various analyst reports, interviews 7

8 Fleet Average Incremental Cost ($/Vehicle) Achieving 2025 Fuel Economy Targets Will Require Radical Adjustments to OEM Portfolios Illustrative 58.6 MPG* EPA 2025 Target Gap ,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Baseline Boosted GDI Spd. Trans Weight Aero Additional Boosting HEV PHEV EV MPG* EPA 2016 Target Fleet Average Fuel Economy (MPG) Incremental Cost Penetration 78% 92% 100% 100% 42% 50% 20% 10% 8

9 Potentially Causing a Massive Value Chain Shift and Creating Technology and Service Opportunities Transportation Value Chain *($ 000 Over Vehicle Lifetime by 2020) $ Value Shift* Electric Gasoline Energy Gen & Distribution Fueling/Grid Components $20B $13B $60B $185B $25B >$300B Incl. Battery EV Vehicles Base* Service In 2020 Hardware Services/ Software Incremental Transmission & Distribution Equipment Clean Source Provisioning Peak Rate Optimization Charger Systems Incremental Smart Grid Equipment Energy Load Mgmt Software Infrastructure Services Data Aggregation Batteries Vehicles PEEM Architectures EV Adjacent Systems Low Weight BIW Communication/Media Structures Customer HMI Charge/Battery Usage IP and SW BMS Adj./Secondary Storage Solutions Telematics Services Intelligent Transportation Spec. Service Diagnostic Equipment Charging & Adj. Services Location Based Services Fleet Mgmt. 9

10 Value Growth Opportunities Will Also Be Presented Deep Within Segment or Component Value Chains Raw Intermediate Cell Component Cell Film Membrane Separator Opportunities Olefin PolymerizationReside Deep Inside System Cracking Fabrication Value Chains Crude Oil extraction / Oil Pathway Cathode Value Creation Potential Is Directly Aligned Li Salt Batch and Sintering Active Material Mixing and Winding / Fabrication of with the Industry s Value Drivers to Reduce Reaction Coating Cell Cost, Weight, Drive Performance Core Battery and Pathway Al Value Drivers Case Reliability Al/Cu Extrusion / Rolling Li Mining / Smelting Lithium Pathway Al/Cu Smelting Aluminum Pathway Graphite Mining Graphite Pathway Vinylidene Polymer. Graphite Milling Li Salt Binder Cu Cost Graphite Paste Production Energy Density Solvent Blending w/ Formulated Reaction Life Other Anode Electrolyte Battery Battery Assembly Example - Battery Key Value Contributors Cathode Active Material Anode Active Material Separator Electrolyte Cell Assembly 10

11 Five Key Factors Will Determine xev Adoption Progress To Date is Mixed Demand Supply 1 Vehicle Affordability/TCO Government Incentives Creative Financing Solutions 2 Batteries Technology & Cost Dramatic Cost Curve Slope Technical Performance Secondary Life 3 Customer Acceptance Range Anxiety Re-Charge Timing Attractive/Usable Vehicles 4 Infrastructure Investments Billions Required Who Will Fund? Long Payback Periods 5 End-End Eco-System Integration Technical Integration Into Grid and Vehicles Business Integration and Profitability Political/Regulatory Alignment Progress/ Risk Status High Risk/ Barrier Partial/No/Limited Solution Progress Moderate Risks- Only Partial Solutions, Target Achievement in Sight Moderate Risk Plans in Place, Getting Close to Target Performance 11

12 1 Electrification is Likely To Be the Most Cost Effective Solution in the Long Run Key Assumptions Vehicle- C Class ICE HEV* PHEV* EV* CNG Fuel Cell Fuel Gasoline $/gal Electricity $/kwh CNG $/gge H2 $/kg 2010/2020 $23K $27K $35K $40K $27K $51K $2.57 $0.11 $2.00 $4.00 $24K $25K $29K $30K $25K $34K $3.56 $0.14 $2.21 $3.50 $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 xev per Mile Operating Cost Comparison ($ / Mile) Battery (Li-ion) $600 / kwh $325 / kwh Fuel Economy ICE HEV EV CNG Fuel Cell Vehicle Life/ Battery Replacement 30mpg 39mpg 4.0mpkWh 27mpg 50mpkg ~10 yr Ownership / Sources: PRTM Analysis 37mpg 48mpg 4.6mpkWh 33mpg 60mpkg 120,000mi EV Battery Replacement *Should-cost pricing assuming annual production > 10,000 $0.35 $0.30 $ Gas EV PHEV HEV Fuel Cells CNG 12

13 1 TCO Benefits in Certain Fleet Segments Show the Potential for Adoption Leaders Fleet Electrification Potential By Fleet Segment * EC Fleet Electrification Roadmap 2010 Base Case Plug-In TCO Parity $375 / kwh & > $3.50 / Gal Higher Mileage Segments Faster Payback Mileage Sweet-Spot for Optimal TCO + Operational Optimization and Potential Incentive Enable Payback for GEVs by 2012 for Most Commercial Segments Longer Ownership Needed for EVs Optimized battery capacity for low driving distance segments Tiered Incentive Structure Likely to be Needed for Psgr. Car through Class 7 Truck 13

14 1 Short-Term Pressure to Reduce Cost to Close Pricing Gaps to ICE Technology Price Point (MSRP, $k) 50 C,D Segment xevs Pricing in US without Government Incentives GM Volt Coda BYD e6 Competitive Hybrid/EV Pricing Ford Fusion SEL Ford Focus Toyota SEL Camry SE Toyota Camry Toyota Prius Ford Fusion Prius PHEV? BYD F3DM?? Ford E- Focus Nissan Leaf Closing Gap to ICE ICE HEV PHEV 20 PHEV40/EREV BEV Level of Electrification (Battery Size) Source: PRTM Analysis 14

15 2 Need for Drastic Battery and EV Drivetrain Cost Reductions to Enable TCO Parity Battery System Cost Reduction ($ per KWh) Other EV Component Cost Reduction Targets $600/kWh ($15k) -24% -13% -6% -13% >50% ~$300/kWh ($7k) ~$2500 Transm. Motor -13% -5% -10% -7% ~35% ~$1600 Inverter Prod. Scale Tech Improv. Design Standard e.g. 24KWh Battery = ~$15,000 SC/ Source e.g. EV (80kW) Prod. Scale Tech Improv. Design Standard SC/ Source Cost Reduction in Next 10 Years to Large Extend Driven by Operational Improvements Operational Improvements and Design Integration/Commonization Are Key Drivers 15

16 Vehicle Electrification Will Require Changes to All Major Systems and the Vehicle Architecture Itself Electrified Propulsion Battery + BMS Battery Cooling Electric Motors Power Electronics Transmission Body/Comfort High Voltage Electric Heating/Cooling Heat Absorbing Material Auxiliary Power Gen (Solar) HMI/Instrumentation EE Architecture High-Voltage Distribution Function Re-Partitioning Communication Network Vehicle Architecture Platform (ICE vs EV) Packaging Light-Weight Structures Chassis/Safety Regenerative Braking Steer-By-Wire Hub-Wheel Motors Electric AWD Integr. Chassis Controller Active Safety Systems Connectivity/Multi-Media (SW / Services) Telematics Mobile Device Integration Vehicle Blackbox Location Based Services 16

17 3 Improvements in Range and Charging Time Will Impact Consumer Acceptance and Infrastructure Needs 60% 50% Consumer Driving Profiles SHARE OF VEHICLE TRIPS BY TRIP DISTANCE (U.S.) 1) U.S. Consumer Charging Infrastructure Requirements 100% 40% 40% 30% 20% >80% with Less than 30 Miles 30% 10% 0% < >30 Storage & Charge Performance 30% Charge Time (h) Gen 1 Gen 2 Range (Miles) Gen 3 Total Charging % Charging in Individual Garage % Charging in Shared Garages / Lots 1.3 Chargers Per Consumer Needed by 2020 % Charging on Public Streets

18 4 Broader Consumer Acceptance Will Require More Than Just Reduced Cost and Basic Charging 1 Coolness Factor Kano Model Customer Delighted Excitement Requirements Mission Criticality Performance Affordability/Cost Requirement not fulfilled Basic Requirements Performance Requirements Requirement fulfilled 5 System Integration Customer Dissatisfied 18

19 5 End-End System Integration Plays a Pivotal Role Challenge Is Integration of Two Domains Integration with the Grid Charge Point Integration with the EV 1 Smart Charge (for Power Grid Load Management) 2 Standardized/Safe/ Authenticated Charge 3 Networked & Adjacent Services AM PM Balance Grid Loads to support EV charging Use off-peak capacity to charge EVs Grid EV Standardized Charging to maximize ease of use Safe, Authenticated Charging for ensure customer security, max. battery life Adequate Charging Network Telematics Services to access Charging Network 4 Seamless, Efficient and Scalable Back-Bone Integration and Standards 19

20 Summary and Implications Technology and legislative trends are aligned to drive significant growth in electrification A wide range of forecasts exists, however: Among the pessimistic industry forecasts, there is still likely to be a U.S. EV/PHEV parc of more than 1M in 2020 While small relative to the overall U.S. vehicle parc, 1M vehicles on the road will drive the need for significant industry consideration of many safety related items including: Charging safety (user, service personnel, pedestrians) Vehicle service safety (OEM authorized and independent) Vehicle-vehicle crash safety (occupant, first responder, and vehicle transport) Vehicle-pedestrian safety Vehicle / battery safety 20