The Global EV Outlook 2018 Focus on batteries and battery charging

Transcription

1 The Global EV Outlook 218 Focus on batteries and battery charging Jacopo Tattini Seminario ITAM y GIZ ITAM, Ciudad de Mexico IEA

2 Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) Multi-government policy forum dedicated to conducting collaborative activities that support the design and implementation of domestic electric vehicle (EV) deployment policies and programs In 21, EVI was one of several initiatives launched under the CEM Currently co-chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA Released several analytical publications, demonstrating leadership to strengthen the understanding of the opportunities offered by electric mobility to meet multiple policy goals Members Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro- Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22) Launched the Campaign in June 217, updated in September 218 Launched the Pilot City Programme in May 218 Also working with the Global Environment Facility on the preparation of a project for the support of EV policy-making in developing regions in 218

3 Campaign Designed to accelerate the global deployment of electric vehicles Sets a collective aspirational goal to reach 3% sales share for EVs by 23 Launched at the 8 th CEM meeting, in Beijing, by Minister Wan Gang Enlarged participation announced at the UK ZEV Summit in September 218 Implementing actions include: Supporting the deployment of chargers and tracking its progress, Galvanising public and private sector commitments for electric vehicle (EV) uptake in company and supplier fleets Scaling up policy research and information exchanges Supporting governments for policy and technical assistance through training Establishing the Global EV Pilot City Programme, aiming to achieve 1 EV- Friendly Cities over five years. The PCP counts over 3 cities by September 218. Members Supported by several partners, including the private sector since UK in 218

4 Global EV Outlook 218 EVI flagship report by the IEA 218 edition includes Data reporting (EV stock, sales, EVSE, battery costs) Overview of existing policies Battery technology and cost assessment Implications on the TCO of road vehicles Role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (23 timeframe) Electricity demand, oil displacement and GHG emission mitigation Material demand Policy recommendations 218 edition also paired with the Nordic EV Outlook 218 Focus on one of the most dynamic global regions for EV uptake Opportunity to learn on policy efficacy and consumer behaviour

5 Electric car stock (millions) The number of electric cars on the road continues to grow Others United States Europe China BEV BEV + PHEV The electric car stock exceeded 3 million in 217 However, electric cars still only represent.3% of the global car fleet

6 The role of consumer electronics for Li-ion battery improvements Consumer electronics led to cost declines (through technology progress and scale) for Li-ion in the past This benefited both EV packs, now set to deliver the next scale up, and stationary storage

7 Battery cost (USD/kWh) Li-ion improvements: battery chemistry LFP-Gr NMC 111-Gr NCA-Gr NMC622-Gr NMC 811-Gr Cathode chemistry Other materials Battery jacket Module hardware Electrolyte Separators Negative active material Positive active material Other cost components Battery chemistries influence costs per kwh through changes in energy density and materials Reducing the content of cobalt in battery chemistries also results in lower unit costs, all else being equal

8 Industry is mobilizing investment in large scale manufacturing Country Manufacturer Production capacity (GWh/year) Operational Year of commissioning Source China BYD TL Ogan (216) US LG Chem BNEF (218) Japan Panasonic BNEF (218) China CATL BNEF (218) Announced Germany TerraE TerraE (217) US Tesla Tesla (218b) India Reliance Factor Daily (217) China CATL Reuters (217f) Sweden Northvolt Northvolt (217) Hungary SK innovation SK innovation (218) Current battery factory capacity ranges between.5-8 GWh/year Much larger plants ( GWh/year), aiming to reap economies of scale benefits, already announced

9 Li-ion improvements: effects of size & production volumes on costs Note: graphics developed for BEV batteries for cars Battery size and manufacturing capacities have sizable impacts on the cost of batteries per kwh Over time, both these factors will help delivering significant cost reductions

10 Li-ion expected as the technology of choice for the next decade Current Being deployed Next generation Lithium-ion Advanced Lithium-ion Beyond Lithium-ion Cathode NMC111 N.8 C.15 A.5 NMC622 N.9 C.5 A.5 NMC811 Li Metal, HVS Anode Graphite Carbon alloys Graphite + 5-1% Silicon Graphite/Silicon composite Li-Air Li-Sulphur Electrolyte Organic solvent + LiPF 6 salts Gel Polymer 5V electrolyte salts Polymer Li-ion will continue to improve, thanks to several enhancements possible in battery performance Other technology options will be ready after 225, and scaled up in the following years

11 Battery costs (USD/kWh) Lithium-ion batteries: further cost reductions at reach GWh/year 35 GWh/year Plant scale 2-75 kwh 7-8 kwh 25 Other materials Battery jacket Battery cost (USD/kWh) Module hardware Electrolyte Separators Battery size Negative active material Positive active material Other cost components 155 LFP-Gr NMC 111-Gr NCA-Gr NMC622-Gr NMC 811-Gr Cathode chemistry Chemistry 12 NMC 111 NMC ? The combined effect of manufacturing scale up, improved chemistry and increased battery size explain how battery cost can decline significantly in the next 1 to 15 years

12 EV electricity consumption (TWh) EVs lead to higher electricity demand Electricity demand due to EVs: 54 TWh (more than the electricity demand of Greece) United States 3 2 China Other France Norway Germany Japan United Kingdom Wheeler Bus LDV Netherlands Canada Others Around 91% of the power for electric vehicles in 217 was consumed in China The share of electricity demand from EVs was.8% in China and.5% in Norway

13 kwh/h Are electric cars impacting the power grid? Peak electricity demand in independent Norwegian houses with home charging 14 Typical BEV onboard charger 12 1 Typical PHEV onboard charger 8 6 Typical household peak power demand 4 Power connection typical large home 2 Summer day Winter day Extra cold day (-13 C) Power connection typical small home Home chargers can add significant loads to the household power demand. Unless properly managed (e.g. delayed charging), electricity demand due to electric car charging could exceed the maximum power in the distribution grid.

14 Ensuring that EVs are effectively integrated in the electricity grid Power generation: variable renewable capacity additions are breaking records Local power distribution: need to minimize the risk of local grid disruptions and the need for costly grid upgrades Flexible charging is key To accommodate efficiently variable renewable generation (e.g. daytime workplace charging when PV generates most) To release pressure on the grid at high power demand peak hours To avoid grid disruptions locally, provide frequency and load balancing services How? Default vehicle software allowing flexibility Time-of-use pricing Smart-meters Regulatory environment favourable to aggregators Who pays for local grid upgrades? Utility? EV owner x? All EV owners? Everyone?

15 IEA

16 Million vehicles Global EV deployment under the NPS and the scenario New Policies Scenario Scenario PLDVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV The EV3@3 Scenario sees almost 23 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs, on the road by 23. This is about 1 million more than in the New Policies Scenario

17 Battery capacity additions (GWh/year), 23 Battery capacity additions (GWh/year), 23 Battery capacity NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 LDVs-BEV LDVs-PHEV Buses Trucks 2/3 Wheelers Demand for battery capacity for electric vehicles, primarily PLDVs, is projected to increase to.78 TWh per year in the New Policies Scenario and 2.2 TWh per year in the EV3@3 Scenario and to 23

18 Metal Demand (kt) Metal Demand (kt) Material demand 4 Cobalt 4 Lithium NPS EV3@3 NPS Historical Low cobalt chemistry High cobalt chemistry Central estimate EV3@3 Lithium and cobalt demand from electro mobility in 23 will be much higher than current demand Developments in battery chemistry can greatly affect future demand

19 Managing changes in material demand from EV batteries Challenges (material procurement): o Fluctuating prices, stockpiling o Uncertainty for EV developments and battery technologies o Concentrated extraction (DRC for cobalt) Solutions: o Long-term contracts o Need clarity and certainty over future market key area with national/local governments influence (ZEV mandates, targets, bans) Challenges (social and environmental sustainability): o Environmental impact of mining o Black market/child labour o Extremely untransparent supply chains Solutions: o Multi-stakeholder actions and signals (governments, civil society, NGOs, industry) o Sustainability standards to be developed, labelling

20 New electric car sales ([thousands) Electric car market share Electric car sales are on the rise in all major car markets 64 4% China 56 35% Europe United States 48 3% Norway 4 25% Germany 32 2% Japan 24 15% United Kingdom France 16 1% Sweden 8 5% Canada % Netherlands Market share of new electric cars China is the largest electric car market globally, followed by Europe and the US Norway is the global leader in terms of market share, with 4% in 217

21 Charging outlets (thousands) Charger deployment accompanies EV uptake Publicly available fast chargers Publicly available slow chargers Private fast chargers (bus fleets) Private slow chargers (cars) EV owners charge mostly at home or at work: private chargers far exceed publicly accessible ones Publicly accessible chargers important to ensure EV market expansion, fast chargers essential for buses

22 but they enable reductions in oil use, GHG & pollutant emissions EVs consume (in final energy terms) half to one third of the energy used by ICE powertrains o This is due both to the higher efficiency of the powertrain and the EVs ability to regenerate kinetic energy when braking EVs displaced.4 mb/d of diesel and gasoline demand in 217 o The majority of the displacement is attributed to two- and three-wheelers (73%), the rest to buses (15%) and LDVs (12%) EVs also allowed to reduce global well-to-wheel CO 2 emission savings of 29.4 Mt CO 2 in 217, and abated pollutant emission savings in high exposure areas (urban environments), thanks to zero tailpipe emissions

23 TCO differential (ICE-BEV) (USD/km) TCO differential (ICE-BEV) Cost difference (USD) Cost difference (USD) Cost difference (USD) Cost difference (USD) Cost difference (USD) Cost difference (USD) TCO differential (ICE-BEV) (USD/km) TCO differential (ICE-BEV) (USD/km) Gasoline e price: price: USD price: USD 1.5 USD 1.5 /L /L 1.5 /L Implications for the cost competitiveness of EVs Cost difference (thousand USD) BEVs 1 are most competitive 1 The economic case for 5 5 in markets with high fuel electric two-wheelers is taxes and at high mileage strong: in countries with At - 15 a USD 12/kWh battery high fuel taxes electric - 15 price - 2 and with EU gasoline - 2 two-wheelers Annual mileage (thouand km) Annual mileage (thousand are km) already Cost difference (thousand USD) Cost difference (USD) prices, BEV are competitive even at low mileage Battery price: Large Large car Large car - Gasoline -car - Gasoline price: price: USD price: USD 1.5 USD 1.5 /L /L 1.5 /L LDVs - BEV Cost difference (USD) 2-wheelers Small car Gasoline - Gasoline price: price: USD USD.8 /L 1.5 /L Large car -Gasoline price: USD 1.5 /L High income Diesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD.13 /kwh Dies nual l mileage Annual mileage (thousand mileage (thousand km) km) km) Annual Annual mileage Annual mileage (thousand mileage Gasoline (thousand km) km) price: km) USD.8 /L 4 Gasoline price: USD 1.5 /L.2 15 Gasoline 6 price: USD.8 /LGasoline 15 price: 4 USD.8 /L Gasoline 6 price: Gasoline price: USD 1.5 /L 6.1 USD 1.5 /L asoline price: USD.8 /L Large car 6 price: price: USD USD /L /L Large Large car car - Gasoline - - Gasoline price: price: 4USD price: USD.8 USD.8 /L /L.8 /L Annual mileage (km) Annual mileage (thousand km) Annual mileage Annual - (thousand mileage km) (km)- 8 Annual mileage (thouand km) Annual mileage (thousand Annual km) mileage Annual (km) mileage (km) ual mileage mileage (thouand km) km) Annual Annual mileage mileage (thousand km) km) Annual mileage (km) -.2Annual mileage Annual (km) mileage Annual (km) mileage (km) USD/kWh 4 USD/kWh 6 USD/kWh Annual mileage (thousand km/year) 4 USD/kWh: Large battery 26 USD/kWh: Large battery 12 USD/kWh: Large Annual mileage (thousand km/year) Annual mileag 4 USD/kWh: Large Large battery battery USD/kWh: Large Large battery battery USD/kWh: Large Large 18 battery USD/kWh battery18 USD/kWh 18 USD/kWh 4 USD/kWh4 USD/kWh4 USD/kWh 6 USD/kWh 6 USD/kWh 6 USD/kWh 4 USD/kWh: 4 USD/kWh: Current Current Small battery Current battery car battery - Gasoline USD/kWh: 26 USD/kWh: price: Current Current battery USD Current battery.8 battery /L USD/kWh: 12 USD/kWh: Current Current battery Current battery battery Large car - Gasoline price: USD.8 /L USD/kWh 26 USD/kWh 12 USD/kWh Low income Diesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD.13 /kwh Dies -.15 cost competitive with gasoline models 4 USD/kWh: Large battery 26 USD/kWh: Large battery 12 USD/kWh: Large battery 4 USD/kWh: Current battery 26 USD/kWh: Current battery 12 USD/kWh: Current battery Annual mileage (thousand km/year) Low income Diesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD.13 /kwh TCO differential (ICE-BEV) (USD/km) Buses Diesel price of USD.9 /L, electricity pric TCO differential (ICE-BEV) (USD/km).2 Electric buses travelling km/year are cost.5 competitive in regions with high 25 3 diesel 35 taxation regimes if battery prices are below USD 26/kWh -.2 Annual mileage (thousand km/year) Annual mileage (th 4 USD/kWh 26 US

24 Million electric LDVs Benchmarking scenario results against OEM targets for PLDVs OEMs announcements (estimate) New Policies Scenario EV3@3 Estimates based on manufacturers projections suggest an uptake of electric LDVs ranging in-between the New Policies and the EV3@3 scenarios by 225

25 EV uptake is still largely driven by the policy environment All 1 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the uptake of electric cars Policies have been instrumental to make electric vehicles more appealing to customers, reduce risks for investors and encourage manufacturers to scale up production Key instruments deployed by local and national governments for supporting EV deployment: o public procurement o financial incentives facilitating the acquisition of EVs and reducing their usage cost (e.g. by offering free parking) o financial incentives and direct investment for the deployment of chargers o regulatory instruments, such as fuel economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on their tailpipe emissions performance

26 Market share (%) Market share (%) Regional insights on the GEVO 218 scenarios EV market share by mode in a selection of regions, NPS and EV3@3 scenario, 23 % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% China 1% Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% Japan 8% 6% 4% 2% % % 1% NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV United States 1% India 1% Rest of the World 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% % % % NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV China and Europe are the global regions with the fastest development of EVs in both scenarios and in virtually all modes

27 TWh TWh Power demand projections 3 United States 3 Europe 3 China NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 3 Japan 3 India 3 Rest of the World NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 NPS EV3@3 PLDV LCV Bus and Minibus HDV 2/3 wheelers Two-wheeler and bus electricity demand make China the highest consumer of electricity for EVs in both scenarios. In the EV3@3 Scenario, electricity demand for EVs is more geographically widespread

28 Mt CO₂ GHG emissions 8 EV3@3 8 NPS Avoided emissions, without grid decarbonisation, compared to equivalent ICE fleet Avoided emissions due to grid decarbonisation Emissions from EVs In 23, CO 2 emissions associated with the use of EVs are lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles at a global scale, even if electricity generation does not decarbonise from current levels

29 Managing the battery end-of-life treatment Rules over legal responsibility for battery end-of-life (1 st /2 nd /3 rd life) o Risk of disengagement and no battery management chains / recycling o Risk of landfilling in-country or abroad (consumer electronics battery problem) Certifications and traceability schemes along the lifecycle of batteries (material extraction, assembly, use, 2 nd /3 rd life, recycling/disposal) Encourage manufacturing design enabling recycling processes that allow the recovery of high-value materials minimizing costs and energy use o Regulatory framework mandating that batteries are suitable for physical separation? o Need for multi-stakeholder coordination to understand scope for feasibility without hindering technological advances in battery chemistries/manufacturing

30 Policies favouring the transition to electric mobility CARBON PRICING PUBLIC BRIDGING THE FUEL ECONOMY LOCAL ACCESS ROAD PRICING OF FUELS PROCUREMENT PRICE GAP STANDARDS REGULATIONS PRIVATE & PUBLIC EVSE ROLLOUT DEMAND-DRIVEN & BUSINESS-DRIVEN EVSE SUCCESSFUL GRID INTEGRATION MATERIAL DEMAND MANAGEMENT SECOND LIFE, END-OF- LIFE AND RECYCLING

31 Stimulating the adoption of electric vehicles Carbon pricing on transport fuels Targets to phase in zero emission vehicles Public procurement programmes for zero-emission vehicles, providing a pivotal stimulus to market creation and expansion Bridging the price gap (adjusting to the EV uptake) o Differentiated taxes on vehicle purchase, best if based on environmental performances (bonus/malus, feebates) o Circulation advantages (free or discounted parking, free charging and access to priority traffic lanes and reduced charges on the use of transport infrastructure) Fuel economy standards Zero emission incentives (more flexible to technology development) or mandates (higher certitude) Local initiatives to regulate access

32 Focus on fuel economy standards and ZEV incentives/mandates Fuel-economy and tailpipe CO 2 emissions standards have demonstrated their efficacy to lead to improved ICE vehicle efficiency Standards must be sufficiently stringent to secure timely investment and help ramp-up production and supporting infrastructure Once legislated standards shall not be compromised by changes Standards can be coupled with differentiated purchase taxes Standards can also be coupled with ZEV incentives (more room for flexibility to manage technology uncertainties) or mandates (higher certitude on volumes) Life cycle approach desirable, but there is a risk of overlaps with other regulatory frameworks (such as those regulating emissions for the fuel supply chain) and implementation challenges Need to ensure that power generation and other fuels will also decarbonize (need for complementary measures in the power and fuel production sectors)