Changing the Way We Travel A Look at Autonomous and Connected Vehicles

Transcription

1 Changing the Way We Travel A Look at Autonomous and Connected Vehicles Mara Campbell Mara.Campbell@ch2m.com Cindy Juliano Cindy.Juliano@ch2m.com

2 Topics Overview of Autonomous Vehicles and Connected Vehicles (AV/CV) History and Policy of AV/CV Benefits, Disadvantages, Urgency, and Impacts Observations Path Forward July

3 Overviewof AV/CV July

4 AV/CV Technology Envisioned in 1958 July

5 Today s Transportation Challenges Safety 35,092 highway deaths in 2015 and RISING! 6.3 million collisions in 2015 Motor vehicle crashes were leading cause of death for ages 11 and Mobility 6.9 billion hours of travel delays Cost of $160 billion in urban congestion Environment 3.1 billion gallons of wasted fuel 56 billion pounds of additional CO2 Data Sources:Quick Facts: 2015 Data, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (January 2016); 2015 Annual Urban Mobility Report, Texas Transportation Institute (Aug 2015); Centers for Disease Control July

6 Difference Between Autonomous and Connected Vehicles? Data Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation ITS Joint Program Office July

7 How Does AV/CV Technology Work? AV/CV require integrated technology In-vehicle sensors and computers capture information Vehicle communicates with infrastructure (V2I), other vehicles (V2V), and the cloud (V2X) Data Source: Goggle July

8 AV/CV Technology is Here! WE ARE HERE July 2017 Source: SAE International

9 History and Policy of AV/CV July

10 History of Automated and Connected Vehicles Carnegie Melon Navlab Robotic Car OnStar 2011 Google Fully Autonomous Vehicle contains no driver controls US DOT designates 10 AV proving ground pilot sites Seventeen states have passed legislation (since 2011) related to autonomous vehicles Several additional states have passed or are considering legislation Transportation Research Laboratory s automated 1960 Citroen Ernst Dickmann s and Bundeswehr University of Munich s (Prometheus) Project Nevada is first state to certify AV California, Nevada, Tennessee, Michigan, and Florida, plus the District of Columbia have state legislation allowing the testing of driverless cars on public roads Tesla announces starting October 2016, all cars will have hardware for full self-driving capability (SAE level 5) July

11 What s happening in D.C.? Senate and House committees convened hearings on AVs (June 2017) Hearings addressed key principles of needed legislation 14 House bills are likely to advance Summer 2017 Key Takeaways: Range of predictions for full deployment of AVs Range of perspectives on liability for insurance Unclear how to integrate massive amounts of data generated from CAVs

12 Federal Automated Vehicles Policy Comprised of 4 sections: Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles Model State Policy NHTSA s current regulatory tools New tools and authorities

13 What does the Model State Policy mean? Federal responsibilities: Setting safety standards Enforcing compliance with the safety standards Investigating and managing the recall and remedy of motor vehicle defects Communicating with and educating the public Issuing guidance to achieve national safety goals State responsibilities: Licensing (human) drivers and registering motor vehicles Enacting and enforcing traffic laws and regulations Conducting safety inspections, when States choose to do so Regulating motor vehicle insurance and liability.

14 Current policy and legislation status in the U.S. Source: National Conference of State Legislatures As of July 5, 2017

15 Key Themes, Barriers/Challenges, Urgency, and Impacts from AV/CV July

16 Key themes The timeline for deployment of CAV technology is uncertain, but accelerating. Impacts and benefits to the transportation system are uncertain 3 models that will influence these impacts: Connected vs. Automated vs. Connected and Automated Electric vs. internal combustion engine Personal vs shared These factors make it difficult to plan for an uncertain future.

17 AVs: personal vs. shared By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by ondemand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call transport-as-aservice. RethinkX, Rethinking Transportation , May 2017 Rapid development of AV technology has started to shift business models Some developers are focusing on shared fleets in lieu of individual ownership This model can drastically change how consumers interact with the technology Policymakers need to consider both models in planning for and regulating AVs

18 Autonomous Vehicles Have the Potential to Improve mobility -especially disabled and elderly populations Save lives by reducing collisions Reduce traffic congestion and associated costs Decrease vehicle ownership and VMTs through Shared AVs Reduce amount of real estate dedicated to parking Reduce fuel consumption and environmental impacts July

19 Barriers to the Deployment of AV/CV Security Lack of security standards Communications Lack of standards for V2I and V2V wireless communications Public Acceptance Current skepticism about security, privacy, and safety are preventing wide acceptance Interoperability Disparate technologies and liability concerns from automakers preventing data transfer between vehicles July

20 Challenges for transportation planning Topic Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Challenge Difficult to predict how deployment will be phased. Safety and securitybenefits are expected, but concerns exist for a mixed fleet and the security of the technology. Debate regardingimpacts to capacity to and congestion. Depends on market structure of vehicles (shared v. personal) Uncertainty Uncertainty Data Communications Impactsto modal options and mobility are unclear; a range of predictions exist. Undefinedimplications to funding, operations, structure and responsibilities of transportation agencies. Capacitychallenges related to collecting and managing massive amount of data Wide range of stakeholder perspectives on CAVs Staying informed Technology is evolving quickly and there is lots of information available. Agency capacity Agencies need to develop technical, institutional, and policy expertise. Source: AMPO Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Working Group. Identifying the Challenges, Opportunities, and Current State of Practice. April, 2017.

21 Operational challenges to deploying CAVs Insurance, liability, and licensing Concerns regarding liability and issuance of insurance and licenses for AVs Infrastructure and funding Existing infrastructure will need to updated and maintained to accommodate CAVs. Investments need to be made in state of good repair programs which represents a significant funding barrier for cities and states

22 Operational challenges to deploying CAVs Communications Lack of standards for V2I and V2Vwireless communications Interoperability Disparate technologies and liability concerns from automakers preventing data transfer between vehicles Data and Cybersecurity Lack of security standards

23 Urgency Current Trends Safety Traffic congestion Mobile entertainment and increased value of time Rising, inconsistent, and/or unpredictable fuel prices Increased urbanization and densification Changing paradigm of driving Accessibility and aging population Improved modal choices and flexibility July

24 Research and Testing A Technical View AV Functionality Object Recognition and Vehicle Control b AI/Handling Complex Driving Problems We Are Here July

25 Observations July

26 Some Noteworthy Observations One: Our world is about to speed up Two: The public and media are, and will continue to be, very engaged Three: Transportation agencies are use to directing implementation Four: Transportation agencies will work with new partners July

27 AV/CV Observations MAASTO States MAASTO states with legislation Michigan and Wisconsin Examples of AV/CV within MAASTO States Iowa 1 of 10 designated automated vehicle proving ground sites in the nation. Missouri Road for Tomorrow Ohio - Smart City Columbus Michigan Trailblazing with Mcity and other AV/CV initiatives July

28 AV/CV Observations- US/Internationally Many states/countries encouraging development and implementation of testing centers Many states allowing pseudo-av testing on public roads human drivers at the ready Florida and Georgia - allowing true AVs on the road (no drivers require control remotely) Truck platooning (Level 2 technology still requires drivers in both trucks) is allowed in 9 states European counterparts are advancing at a similar pace to the US some more flexibility where there are less regulations July

29 AV/CV Observations Industry Fun Facts Half of Lyft will be AV by 2021 Ride share will be the conduit into the technology Cars spend 96% of their time NOT in use GM currently has 150 AV cars on the road today Ford has invested over $1B despite lack of federal framework July

30 Path Forward July

31 How Quickly will AV/CV be Adopted? July

32 Current Survey Says.. July

33 Questions Facing Us Extent of automation Role of the private sector Expectation on the public sector Maintenance Planning Policy Impact on urban mobility Impact on rural residents and the underserved New entrants and new business model Impact on workforce July

34 Other Questions What is safe enough? What are the gold standards and how do we assess those? How much safer do AVs have to be (compared to human drivers) for us to accept them in society? Will implementation be incremental via increasing driverassist functions? Frequent early failure is common (even expected) in the tech industry, but avoided in the risk-average transportation industry. How do we deal with this dichotomy? Will the seemingly inevitable frequent shifts in policy help or hinder the technology development? July

35 Next Steps Continue pilot studies and evaluating standards Work directly with automobile manufacturers, technology companies, and policy makers to improve on existing applications Evaluate current DOT environments to determine their readiness Increase public outreach and education; Deploy pilot programs with public participants Integrate Driverless Cars with other nationwide pilot programs (such as the Oregon MBUF Program) July

36 What to Watch For. Patchwork of laws/requirements from states Need for clear rules clarification of federal vs. state responsibilities Manufacturers will want certainly of regulations before full deployment More real world testing streamline development Push to provide relevance to rural Americans not just for cities/interstate Application of cybersecurity to AVs Data availability integration Automakers giving safety data to public agencies? Need a National Framework soon July

37 Takeaways AV/CV Exciting, fast, and uncertain Exciting, fast, and uncertain is not standard for most transportation agencies Bridges will be needed Old business won t go away New partners are coming July

38 Changing the Way We Travel THANK YOU! Mara Campbell Cindy Juliano

39 Top Policy Issues Need for national standards Challenge of 50 states differing set of standards Data governance Cybersecurity issues AV and traffic management systems Liability and Insurance clarification Process for approving AV for public use July

40 Standards for Collecting and Sharing Data Who is responsible for the data? Who owns the data? Public vs. Private How do you share across multiple platforms? How do you manage the need for more refined data Construction zones, lane closures, road hazards July