Electrification: The future of a digitalized and automated automotive world
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1 Electrification: The future of a digitalized and automated automotive world
2 PICTURE INTO THE FUTURE Chief Digital Officer [CDO] of BMW Presentation done at the F&S IM 2017 SUBJECT
3 Future Auto Revenue Growth to Come From Downstream Services Downstream CAGR OEM Vehicle Sales CAGR 31% 11% 3% 1.1 trillion 47% 3.16 trillion Mobility Services Trillion Revenues from car sharing, ride sharing, bike sharing, ridehailing, smart parking Financial services Trillion Revenues from interest and other services in financing new and used cars Driving services Trillion Revenues from Infotainment, Navigation, Driving Analytics, Road Assistance, Concierge 12% CAGR 5% CAGR 11% CAGR 2.5 trillion 3.5 trillion One time car sales Downstream services 4 Vehicle services trillion Revenues from sale of parts, vehicle maintenance and repair (retail revenue) 8% CAGR Source: Experian, Company Reports, Frost and Sullivan analysis
4 Extensive Business Model Coverage in New Mobility Car on Demand Carsharing Ridesharing Integrated Mobility Taxi / e-hailing Transportation Network Companies Ridesplitting / taxi sharing Round Trip One-Way (A-B, A-X) Peer to Peer (P2P) Corporate Fixed Carpooling Dynamic / On-Demand Corporate Multi-Modal Journey Planning Aggregated Booking Smart Payment & Ticketing Bikesharing and Micro Mobility Bicycles E-Bikes Peer to Peer Scooter Sharing Dedicated micro concepts Parking P2P Parking Parking Apps Plan/Book/Pay case studies B2C B2B B2B2C Car Rental Mobility & Financial Services Car Finance (Ownership) Leasing (incl. flexible leasing) P2P Lending (incl. fractional ownership) Subscription Services
5 Heat map of Key Carsharing Markets $ 3 billion Revenue $ 7 billion 240k Fleet 530k 22 million Members 47 million Carsharing Members Greater than 1 million Between 100,001 and 1 mn Between 25,001 and 100,000 Between 5001 and Market Consolidations and Acquisitions Electrification of Carsharing Fleets OEM s launching proprietary Carsharing Apps Less than 5000
6 OEM s Shift Towards CaaS - Future Proof The Business OEM One-way CS Drive Yourself Business Models Two -way CS P2P CS Corp. CS Flex Lease Ride sharing Be-driven Business Models Taxi Hail Bike sharing Bus/Shuttle Transit Integrated Mobility Smart Parking Parking Mgmt. P2P Parking emobility Charging Delivery Services Daimler BMW Audi Hyundai VW Ford Groupe PSA Renault-Nissan Toyota Honda GM FCA Volvo JLR * * * * * Own Initiative (either through subsidiary or by themselves) Investment through VC arm Strategic partnership with investment Collaboration without investment Supplier Relationship Source: Frost & Sullivan
7 Millions Total xev Market Scenario Analysis ( ) TOTAL XEV MARKET: UNIT SHIPMENT SALES SCENARIO ANALYSIS, TOTAL MARKET, Lower-case Scenario CAGR, = 22.0% Upper-case Scenario CAGR, = 31.7% 2025 estimates 34M units 32% of total sales M units 20% of total sales Source: Frost & Sullivan
8 48V mild hybrids and PHEVs is likely to be key technologies adopted in EU. 24% 16% 23% 37% NORTH AMERICA xev: 4-6M? ICE: 14-15M PHEV FHEV MHEV (48v+) BEV xev BREAKDOWN BY REGION (ESTIMATES), 2025 FHEV BEV 13% 5% MHEV 23% 59% PHEV EUROPE xev: 6-10M ICE: 13-17M xev to account for 26-43% of total sales in EU MHEV: M FHEV: M PHEV: M BEV: M INDIA xev: M ICE: M 24% 38% 11% 27% CHINA xev:7-11m ICE: 16-20M 38% 19% 14% 29% 26% 38% 17% 19% SOUTH KOREA 0.4-1M JAPAN xev: 3-5M ICE: 0-1M Note :All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan
9 3 Major Types of EV Platforms Conventional New Re-engineered Multi Energy (MEP) (BEV, PHEV, Hybrid, ICE) Dedicated (DP) (Pure BEV s Only) MQB Volt MLBEVO SUV base /24 PEP Performance SUV (S,L,Lux L) 2020 NA LCV Bolt SAV =Present Minimal Impact on Wheel End Systems Carry over conventional parts / components Low-Medium Impact on Wheel End Systems New Components could be considered High Impact on Wheel End Systems New Components are being considered
10 OEMs Future EV Platform Strategy Definitions Platform= Hard Points; Architecture=E/E NEP: New Electric Platform (hard points); AEP: Adapted Electric Platform NEVD: New Electric Vehicle Design; AEVD: Adapted Electric Vehicle Design Dedicated: Only BEV s; Flexible: EV, PHEV, Hybrid, may or maynot have ICE Dedicated = [No Hybrid or ICE] Flexible = Any scenario except above BMW GM Origin i-platform Bolt EV platform Gamma G2SC NEP; NEVD; Dedicated AEP, NEVD, Dedicated evolution Future FAAR WE <->CLAR WE Mini,1,2,3 <-> 5,6,7 AEP; AEVD; Flexible (ICE, PHEV, EV,) G2XX/ Global Gamma P/F (Sonic, Corsa) AEP (Gamma G2C); NEVD; Flexible New P/F NEP; NEVD; Dedicated evolution Low Cost Derivative AEP, NEVD, Dedicated 2019: Mini 2020: ix3 2021: I5 (435 miles) 2020: 2 CUV s 2019 SUV (small, large, Lux Large) SAV! LCV 2021 Lux Low-Roof Low Roof Car
11 OEMs Future EV Platform Strategy Definitions Platform= Hard Points; Architecture=E/E NEP: New Electric Platform; AEP: Adapted Electric Platform NEVD: New Electric Vehicle Design; AEVD: Adapted Electric Vehicle Design Dedicated: Only BEV s; Flexible: EV, PHEV, Hybrid, may or maynot have ICE Dedicated = [No Hybrid or ICE] Flexible = Any scenario except above VW Commercial (Existing Solutions) Volkswagen VW Commercial (New) Origin T Platform PQ 23 Volkswagen Group/Daimler AG LT/T1N series MQB (e-toolkit) Transporter Caddy Crafter AP; AEVD; Flexible evolution Future e-transporter e-caddy Fleet Tests Dedicated New P/F (including MAN TGE) e-crafter Equipped with MAN RIO Telematic P/F MQB (etoolkit) MEB NEP; NEVD; Dedicated ID ID Cross ID Buzz CUV SUV Vans (Shuttles for New Mobility)
12 OEMs Future EV Platform Strategy Definitions Platform= Hard Points; Architecture=E/E NEP: New Electric Platform (hard points); AEP: Adapted Electric Platform NEVD: New Electric Vehicle Design; AEVD: Adapted Electric Vehicle Design Dedicated: Only BEV s; Flexible: EV, PHEV, Hybrid, may or maynot have ICE Dedicated = [No Hybrid or ICE] Flexible = Any scenario except above Audi Porsche Origin E-tron (MLB) J1 Sedan (mission E) AEP; AEVD; Flexible NEP; NEVD; Dedicated evolution evolution evolution Future E-tron (MLB) AEP; AEVD; Flexible 2018: 1 st : SUV (e-tron) 2 nd : Sportback (e-tron) MEB NEP (MEV); AEVD, Dedicated 3 rd : Compact Small SUV New Premium Electric Platform (PEP) NEP; NEVD; Dedicated (shared with Porsche) 2021 SUV (small, large, Lux Large) SAV LCV Post 2025 R8 e-tron 40% SPE NEP, NEVD, Dedicated 2020 Post d sport cars + supercars
13 OEMs Future EV Platform Strategy Definitions Platform= Hard Points; Architecture=E/E NEP: New Electric Platform (hard points); AEP: Adapted Electric Platform NEVD: New Electric Vehicle Design; AEVD: Adapted Electric Vehicle Design Dedicated: Only BEV s; Flexible: EV, PHEV, Hybrid, may or maynot have ICE Dedicated = [No Hybrid or ICE] Flexible = Any scenario except above Nissan Ford Origin EV Platform [B0] Electric Platform NEP; NEVD; Dedicated AEP; AEVD; Flexible evolution evolution Future EV Platform [B0] New EV P/F [CMF Arc.] KA+ (via M&M) NEP, NEVD, Flexible AEP; NEVD, Flexible AEP; AEVD; Flexible AEP; AEVD; Flexible NEP; NEVD; Flexible 2022: : New Leaf 2019: Compact SUV 2020: Compact hatchback 2020: Zoe 2022: Mitsubishi PHEV Common C/D segment PHEV 2020: CUV Aspire and Figo F-150; (Hybrid) Compact SUV Mustang
14 Extensive Business Model Coverage in New Mobility OEM PLATFORM STRATEGY KEY MODELS INVESTMENT Current Future MOTOR BATTERY 100% 100% Model 3 100% 70% i PACE 100% 100% Polestar 1 JV OS* IH 90% 95% inext/i4 100% 50% Mission E 100% 40% 50% Q6 100% 40% 50% EQ D 100% 90% I.D DP CP Geely licensed LG to manufacture battery on their own MEP Dev. Mftr.
15 Bet on PMS and NMC as Motor and Battery Tech respectively OEM MOTOR STRATEGY BATTERY STRATEGY Chemistry kw INVESTMENT CENTER Type kwh INVESTMENT CENTER AI c $1,600 Mn Nevada, USA NCA 90, 100, 200 $ 17,500Mn Nevada, USA MLM; PMS $860 Mn Midlands, UK NMC 90 $ 350Mn Midlands, UK PMM $250 Mn Polestar, SWE NMC $ 390Mn Polestar; CHN PMS $ 300Mn Dingolfing, DE NMC 30,60,90,120 $ 200Mn CH, DE MLM >250 NMC 90, 100,120 PMS $ 450Mn Ingolstadt, DE NMC 60,90 PMS $ 680Mn DE NMC 60,70, 90 $ 1,740Mn CH, DE PMS 40, 100 $ 380Mn Wolfsburg, DE NMC 60,90,100 $ 25,000Mn EU, CHN
16 Bet on PMS and NMC as Motor and Battery Tech respectively Battery Thermal Management System* Cooling Heating Combined Air Cooling Forced Air cooling Fluid ducting cooling plates Direct Refrigerant Cooling Resistive Heater Active Combined Liquid Heating & Cooling Independent Air cooling Liquid Glycol Cooling Works in Tandem Liquid Heating Thermoelectric Module PTC Heater Note: Future Innovations for post 2022 Phase Change Material
17 Bet on PMS and NMC as Motor and Battery Tech respectively Technology Adopted Legends: R134A f refrigerant Al Tubes Plates Forced Air Water/glycol coolant system Liquid coolant with aluminum fins. Glycol coolant -aluminum thermal fins Glycol coolant -aluminum tray Liquid coolant with metallic ribbon Forced air cooling system Liquid cooling system for the PHEVs. Air cooled system for BEVs
18 Electronics Requirements for Electric Vehicles
19 Units in Thousands ( 000s) 18 Million Highly Automated Vehicles (L3/4/5) Globally by 2030 Global Autonomous Driving, Market Volumes, L Years L3 L4 L5 Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis L3
20 Comparative Sensor Suite Offerings L0 and L1 Features Sensors/ Software Aptiv Autoliv Bosch Continental Denso Hella Mobis Magna Valeo ZF TRW GHz Radar 2. 76/ 77 GHz Radar 3. Ultrasonic Sensors Degree Camera 5. Camera 6. Infrared camera 7. LiDAR L0 L1 BSD NA 1,2 2, , 5 1, 5 - LDW NA FCW NA 1,2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 1,2,5 5 1,5 1,2,5 PDC NA 3 3, NV NA APA NA - 3,5 1,3, ,4 3,1,4 - AEB NA 1,2,5 2,5 1,2,5,7 2,5 2,5 1,2,5 5 5,7 1,2,5 CWS NA ACC NA 1,2, ,5 7 1,2,5 LKA NA
21 ADAS Market : Technology Roadmap, Technology Roadmap, Mono FVC Gen 1 Mono FVC Gen 2 Radar Lidar FCM Stereo FVC with 3D imaging Mechanical Lidar 3D Flash Lidar Tri-focal FVC Gen 1 MEMS Lidar Stereo FVC with 4D imaging SRR Gen 1 Radar SRR Gen 2 Radar SRR Gen 3 Radar LRR Gen 1 Radar LRR Gen 2 Radar LRR Gen 3 Radar Multimode Gen 1 Radar Multimode Gen 2 Radar Tri-focal FVC Gen 2 Optical Phased Array Lidar Multimode Gen 3 Radar
22 Hotspots: 12 Revenue Opportunities for Key Stakeholders Autonomous Service Revenue 1 Mobility 2 Vehicle Services 3 Logistics & Services 4 Peripheral Services 1. Pods 2. Taxi 3. Shuttles 1. In-vehicle feature updates 2. Valet Parking / Parking 3. BOOM 1. Kerb Side Delivery 2. Refuse / Recover / City Logistics 3. Hub 2 Hub [Highway Logistics) 1. User Based Insurance 2. Vehicle Data Services 3. Maintenance and Predictive Model 12 UNIQUE Revenue propositions Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
23 YoY Growth Rate: Total Market Size (Billion Rides) Shared Mobility: Shuttles (By Rides) $74.42 Billion By 2030! Expected YoY Global Penetration Rate Of Autonomous Shuttles by Number of Rides, Global, % 115% Today fare per Ride is estimated at $3.9: Constitutes of: 15% Operator Profit = $0.6 30% Labor Cost =$1.2 35% Operation Cost (Insurance, parking) = $1.4 20% Maintenance Cost (Service, Fuel) = $0.8 87% 86% 75% 69% 65% 63% ROW China ASEAN Africa SAM Europe NAR Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion) Global Average Fare per ride for a certain length (in US$) NA Autonomous Rides Penetration 0 5.7% 11.4% 19% 22.9% 26.8% 30.7% Value ($ Billion) Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
24 YoY Growth Rate: Total Market Size (Billion Rides) Shared Mobility: Automated Taxi (By Rides): $38.61B by 2030! Expected YoY Global Penetration Rate Of Autonomous Shuttles by Number of Rides, Global, % 115% Today fare per Ride is estimated at $3.9: Constitutes of: 15% Operator Profit = $0.6 30% Labor Cost =$1.2 35% Operation Cost (Insurance, parking) = $1.4 20% Maintenance Cost (Service, Fuel) = $0.8 87% 86% 75% 69% 65% 63% ROW China ASEAN Africa SAM Europe NAR Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion) Global Average Fare per ride for a certain length (in US$) NA Autonomous Rides Penetration 0 5.7% 11.4% 19% 22.9% 26.8% 30.7% Value ($ Billion) Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
25 ICE EV LIDAR RADAR CAMERA OS M/W API V2V V2X AUTONOMOUS CONNECTIVITY HD Fleet Deployment Inventory Mgmt Customer Engagement Payment Cars Ecosystem: Providing Cost and Convenience in Autonomous (1) Hardware (2) Software (3) Cloud (4) Fleet Management Services Car In car In-car Outside AI Service MAP Others S/W; P/F Fleet Other Vital Partners Conquest Mode Consortium Mode Acquisition Mode Hybrid Mode
26 Key Takeaways & Discussion Points 1 in 6 cars sold (18Mn) globally to be automated (L3, L4 and L5) by China leading; Shuttle Programs and Automated Taxis to have biggest share of revenue pie 12 Key Autonomous Driving Based Services to Account for $200Bn by Shuttles and Robotaxis contribute 54%. OEMs Will Consider Options to Capitalize on future AD Service market -Options include: Consortiums, Partnerships, Acquisitions or Hybrid Tier 1 Supplier Role will Evolve (Integrator; H/W agnostic S/W) -Tech partnership, acquisition or consortiums vital to develop new mobility ecosystems! Autonomous to Disrupt Existing New Mobility Business Models -Likely convergence of e-hailing and car sharing operations to Ride Sharing by 2025/30!
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