Caltrain Business Plan

Transcription

1 Caltrain Business Plan DECEMBER 2018 LPMG December 20, 2018

2 The 2040 Vision: A Continued Focus on Service Planning

3 What is the Caltrain Business Plan? What Why Addresses the future potential of the railroad over the next years. It will assess the benefits, impacts, and costs of different service visions, building the case for investment and a plan for implementation. Allows the community and stakeholders to engage in developing a more certain, achievable, financially feasible future for the railroad based on local, regional, and statewide needs.

4 What Will the Business Plan Cover? Technical Tracks Service Number of trains Frequency of service Number of people riding the trains Infrastructure needs to support different service levels Business Case Value from investments (past, present, and future) Infrastructure and operating costs Potential sources of revenue Community Interface Benefits and impacts to surrounding communities Corridor management strategies and consensus building Equity considerations Organization Organizational structure of Caltrain including governance and delivery approaches Funding mechanisms to support future service

5 Where Are We in the Process? We Are Here

6 Service Planning: High Growth

7 Review & Evaluate Concepts Review & Evaluate Concepts Off-Peak Service Planning Terminal Planning South San Jose & Gilroy Planning

8 Amount of Investment /Number of Trains Context: Different Ways to Grow 2040 Higher Growth Scenario 2018 Current Operations 2022 Start of Electrified Operations 2033 High Speed Rail Phase Baseline Growth Scenario Design Year

9 2015 Population & Jobs 2040 Demand The Caltrain corridor is growing Corridor expected to add 1.2 million people and jobs within 2 miles of Caltrain (+40%) 1 80% of growth expected in San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties Major transit investments are opening new travel markets to Caltrain Downtown Extension and Central Subway to provide more direct connections to downtown San Francisco Dumbarton Rail, BART to San Jose, and improvements to Capitol Corridor and ACE to strengthen connectivity with East Bay HSR and Salinas rail extensions to increase interregional travel demand With greatly improved service, 2040 Ridership demand could reach up to 240,000 riders per day 2 1 Based on Plan Bay Area forecasts and approved projects by individual cities 2 Derived from a rough order-of-magnitude sensitivity test using the C/CAG Model

10 # of People + Jobs # of People + Jobs 2040 Land Use & Transportation Context 1 million people and jobs within 1/2 mile of Caltrain stations 4.2 million people and jobs within 2 miles of Caltrain stations Indicates a station where substantial growth beyond Plan Bay Area forecasts is anticipated, but not yet approved

11 Throughput Demand vs. Capacity To comfortably serve the potential market for rail in 2040, Caltrain would need to operate 8 trains per hour, per direction (TPHPD) with 10 car trains or 12 TPHPD with 8 or 10 car trains Seated capacity based on Stadler EMU with different door and bike car configurations. Does not include consideration of potential HSR capacity to serve demand

12 Selecting a High Growth Service Concept Why Next Steps Last month we reviewed seven different High Growth service concepts. We now want to evaluate these concepts and select an option that provides the best illustrative example of a High Growth service strategy for the corridor. This will allow us to pursue a more detailed analysis and comparison with the Baseline Growth Scenario The selected High Growth concept will be further refined and expanded into a full day service plan including Gilroy service, off-peak service and terminal operations. The High Growth and Baseline service plans will then be compared as part of a business case analysis that includes full ridership runs, operations simulation, infrastructure and operations costing, and economic benefit assessments.

13 Service Concepts - Recap San Francisco 22nd St A - 12 Trains Zone Express B - 16 Trains Local/Express (Minimal Passing Tracks) C - 12 Trains D - 16 Trains Local/Express (Expanded Passing Tracks) E - 12 Trains F - 16 Trains Skip Stop G - 16 Trains Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Conceptual 4-track segment Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Assumes standardized HSR service; the 2018 HSR Business Plan expects 2 trains per hour, per direction at Millbrae

14 Initial Screening Not Recommended for Further Evaluation San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore Zone Express B - 16 Trains Local / Express E - 12 Trains Skip Stop G - 16 Trains B - Zone Express 16 Trains Infrastructure needs are extensive and incompatible with other service options Increased train throughput does not result in additional service at most stations High Speed Rail South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence E - Local/Express 12 Trains (More Passing Tracks) Requires significantly more infrastructure to achieve the same throughput as other 12-train concepts Infrastructure is compatible with and builds toward Local/Express 16-train concept (option F). Can be considered as a variant of this option. G - Skip Stop 16 Trains Challenging internal connectivity and service legibility Increased train throughput does not result in additional service at most stations Similar to and compatible with Local/Express 16 Train pattern with less passing tracks (option D)- can be considered as a variant of this option Conceptual Santa Clara 4-track segment College Park San Jose Diridon Assumes standardized HSR service; the 2018 HSR Business Plan expects 2 trains per hour, per direction at Millbrae

15 Initial Screening Results A - 12 Trains Zone Express B - 16 Trains Local/Express (Minimal Passing Tracks) C - 12 Trains D - 16 Trains Local/Express (Expanded Passing Tracks) E - 12 Trains F - 16 Trains Skip Stop G - 16 Trains San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Removed through Screening Process Removed through Screening Process Removed through Screening Process Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Conceptual 4-track segment Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Assumes standardized HSR service; the 2018 HSR Business Plan expects 2 trains per hour, per direction at Millbrae

16 Service Goals 1. Maximize Ridership - with fast and frequent service between major markets 2. Improve Coverage and Connectivity - by ensuring that most stations are connected with frequent service 3. Enhance Capacity and Convenience - with service that is comfortable and easy to understand 4. Right Size New Infrastructure - by investing strategically to provide corridorwide benefits

17 Service Concept Evaluation 1. Maximize Ridership Goal Metric Existing Minimal Passing Tracks Provide high frequency service Number of stations served every 10 minutes or more 5 TPH A - 12 TPH Zone Express C - 12 TPH Local/Express D - 16 TPH Local/Express Expanded Passing Track F - 16 TPH Local/Express 0 Stations 6 Stations 10 Stations 10 Stations 14 Stations Improve travel times between major markets Average travel times plus wait times between major stations 1 55 Minutes 28 Minutes 31 Minutes 28 Minutes 24 Minutes 1 Averaged matrix of travel times between the eight busiest stations accounting for approximately ¾ of existing ridership (4 th & King, Millbrae, Hillsdale, Redwood City, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, and San Jose). Includes travel time riding the train plus half of train headway. All metrics include Broadway and Atherton stations but exclude College Park station

18 Service Concept Evaluation 2. Improve Coverage and Connectivity Goal Metric Existing Minimal Passing Tracks Expanded Passing Track 5 TPH A - 12 TPH Zone Express C - 12 TPH Local/Express D - 16 TPH Local/Express F - 16 TPH Local/Express Achieve 15-minute frequencies at most stations during peak Number of stations without service every 15 minutes 2 17 Stations 4 Stations Broadway, Burlingame, Atherton, Menlo Park 7 Stations San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos plus Broadway, Burlingame, Atherton, Menlo Park 2 Stations Atherton, Menlo Park 4 stations Broadway, Burlingame, Atherton, Menlo Park Maintain connectivity between stations Percentage of stations directly connected by local trains without a transfer 83%*** ***Local service every 60 minutes 66% Zone service every 15 minutes 95% Local service every 15 minutes 64% Local service every 15 minutes 99% Local service every 15 minutes 2 Stations that do not receive 4 TPHPD are served with 2 TPHPD except Atherton (1 TPHPD) and Menlo Park (3 TPHPD) All metrics include Broadway and Atherton stations but exclude College Park station

19 Service Concept Evaluation 3. Enhance Capacity and Convenience Goal Metric Existing Minimal Passing Tracks Expanded Passing Track 5 TPH A - 12 TPH Zone Express C - 12 TPH Local/Express D - 16 TPH Local/Express F - 16 TPH Local/Express Provide capacity responsive to 2040 demand Percent demand served relative to seated capacity 3 35% 2040 demand 80% 2040 demand 80% 2040 demand 100% 2040 demand 100% 2040 demand Provide legible service structure Complexity of stopping pattern High Complexity 5+ patterns per hour Moderate Complexity 2 patterns without connected local service Moderate Complexity 3 patterns with 2 local service variants High Complexity 3 patterns with 2 distinct local skip stop patterns Low Complexity 2 patterns with fully connected local service 3 Assumes 10 car trains and 2040 peak demand of approximately 10,000 passengers per hour in the peak direction All metrics include Broadway and Atherton stations but exclude College Park station

20 Service Concept Evaluation 4. Right Size Infrastructure Goal Metric Existing Minimal Passing Tracks Expanded Passing Track 5 TPH A - 12 TPH Zone Express C - 12 TPH Local/Express D - 16 TPH Local/Express F - 16 TPH Local/Express Minimize mainline track expansions Miles of new passing track 0 Existing passing tracks at Bayshore and Lawrence stations 2 Hayward Park-Hillsdale and a northern Santa Clara County station 3 Hayward Park-Hillsdale, a northern Santa Clara County station, and a 4- track Redwood City Station 3 Hayward Park-Hillsdale, a northern Santa Clara County station, and a 4- track Redwood City Station 15 South San Francisco- Millbrae, Hillsdale-San Carlos, a 4-track Redwood City Station and 5 miles in northern Santa Clara County See appendix slides for additional detail on infrastructure needs and options (excerpted and repeated from November presentation) All metrics include Broadway and Atherton stations but exclude College Park station

21 Evaluation Results Goal Metric Existing Minimal Passing Tracks Expanded Passing Track 5 TPH A - 12 TPH Zone Express C - 12 TPH Local/Express D - 16 TPH Local/Express F - 16 TPH Local/Express 1. Maximize Ridership Provide high frequency service Improve travel times between major markets Number of stations served every 10 minutes or more 0 Stations 6 Stations 10 Stations 10 Stations 14 Stations Average travel times plus wait times between major stations 1 55 Minutes 37 Minutes 34 Minutes 33 Minutes 30 Minutes 2. Improve Connectivity Achieve 15-minute frequencies at most stations Maintain connectivity between stations Number of stations without service every 15 minutes Percentage of stations directly connected by local train without a transfer 17 Stations 4 Stations 7 Stations 2 Stations 4 stations 83%*** (at 60 min headways) 66% 95% 64% 99% 3. Enhance Convenience Provide capacity responsive to 2040 demand % 2040 demand relative to seated capacity 2 35% 80% 80% 100% 100% Provide legible service structure Complexity of stopping pattern High Complexity Moderate Complexity Moderate Complexity High Complexity Low Complexity 4. Right Size Infrastructure Minimize mainline track expansions Miles of new passing track A - Zone Express 12 TPH Insufficient capacity to fully meet future demand Longest average travel times Least stations with high-frequency service D Local/Express 16 TPH High complexity and poor connectivity 15% of stations are not connected at all due to skip stop service

22 Evaluation Results Zone Express Local/Express (Reduced Passing Tracks) 12 Trains 16 Trains 12 Trains 16 Trains Local/Express 12 Trains 16 Trains Skip Stop 16 Trains San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Removed through Evaluation Process Removed through Screening Process Removed through Evaluation Process Removed through Screening Process Removed through Screening Process Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Conceptual 4-track segment Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon

23 Evaluation Results San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Station service level TBD through further Menlo Park analysis Palo Alto High Speed Rail Conceptual 4-track segment California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Local/Express (Reduced Passing Tracks) 12 Trains Features Regional Express serves all Major Activity Centers at 15-minute headways Most stations served by local service at 15 minute headways Closely-spaced mid-peninsula stations served at 30 minute headways (Broadway, Burlingame, San Mateo, Belmont, and San Carlos) Timed local-express transfer at Redwood City Passing Track Needs 3 miles of new passing tracks: Hayward Park to Hillsdale, at Redwood City, and at a station in northern Santa Clara county- either Palo Alto, California Ave (shown), San Antonio or Mountain View Options with Service Structure Each local pattern can only stop once Millbrae to Hillsdale Each local pattern can only stop once Hillsdale to Redwood City Flexible station overtake location in northern Santa Clara County San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Local/Express 16 Trains Features Complete local stop service Two express lines serving major markets All stations receive at least 4 TPH, with many receiving 8 or 12 TPH Passing Track Needs 15 miles of new passing tracks: South San Francisco to Millbrae, Hayward Park to Redwood City, and northern Santa Clara County (shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View) Options with Service Structure Second express pattern must run nonstop from 22 nd St to San Mateo, but has some flexibility in number and location of stops along mid-peninsula Flexible 5 mile passing track location in northern Santa Clara County

24 Evaluation Results San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Station service level TBD through further Menlo Park analysis Palo Alto California Ave Local/Express (Reduced Passing Tracks) 12 Trains Local/Express 12 Summary with Minimal Passing Tracks Provides good travel times, frequency, and connectivity for most markets, though with some shortcomings Insufficient capacity to fully meet projected demand Minimizes extent of overtakes required Recommended for further analysis San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave Local/Express 16 Trains Local/Express 16 Summary with Expanded Passing Tracks Provides fastest, most frequent, most reliable service to the most people Strong connectivity Appropriate capacity to serve future demand However, passing tracks needs represent major infrastructure challenge Recommended for further analysis High Speed Rail San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Conceptual 4-track segment Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon

25 Recommendation DRAFT 1. Analyze a Local/Express service in the Business Plan as the High Growth Scenario 2. Carry forward and evaluate two "high growth" service scenarios A 12-train local / express service using limited passing tracks A 16 train local / express using full passing tracks 3. Continue dialogue with project partners and local jurisdictions to understand interests and concerns with each variant DRAFT

26 Amount of Investment /Number of Trains Context: Different Ways to Grow DRAFT 2040 High Growth Scenarios 2018 Current Operations 2022 Start of Electrified Operations 2033 High Speed Rail Phase Baseline Growth Scenario Design Year

27 S H A R I N G S E S S I O N Do you have any questions about the evaluation process or scoring criteria? How do you feel about the findings of the evaluation? Do you agree with the recommendation to evaluate two "high growth" scenarios?

28 Off-Peak & Weekend Service Planning Review & Evaluate Concepts Off-Peak Service Planning Terminal Planning South San Jose & Gilroy Planning

29 Considerations Off-peak and weekend service provides unique opportunities and challenges for Caltrain The Caltrain corridor has very high all-day travel demand, 7 days a week Demand for off-peak service may increase overtime along with corridor development and densities Early morning, midday, evening, and weekend periods all present different challenges and opportunities related to operating costs and work windows for construction and maintenance These slides illustrate options of how Caltrain may respond to these factors over time

30 Off-Peak & Weekend Demand Existing Off-Peak Service Most Caltrain service and ridership occurs during the morning and evening periods. Hourly midday and evening service captures a very small market share US-101 experiences a 14-hour bidirectional peak period from 6 AM to 8 PM 20,000 Existing Weekend Service Hourly weekend service that primarily serves long-distance trips and captures a very small market share US-101 experiences a 12-hour peak period from 9 AM to 9 PM with volumes near weekday levels 20,000 16,000 EARLY AM AM PEAK MIDDAY PM PEAK EVENING 16,000 WEEKEND 12,000 12,000 8,000 8,000 4,000 4, Off-Peak Period US-101 Caltrain Caltrain US-101 Based on US-101, BART, and Caltrain person trip volumes at San Francisco County line. Volumes are comparable along most of Caltrain corridor.

31 Off-Peak Demand: BART vs. Caltrain Transbay Corridor BART serves about 20-30% of midday and weekend travel on the Transbay corridor, whereas Caltrain serves about 2-3% of travel on the Peninsula Caltrain Corridor Assuming similar peaking patterns to BART, Caltrain may serve approximately 4,000-5,000 passengers per hour during the midday and evening periods 25,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 EARLY AM MIDDAY EVENING 20,000 15,000 EARLY AM MIDDAY EVENING 10,000 10,000 5,000 5, Off-Peak Period Bay Bridge BART US-101 Caltrain 2040 Caltrain Potential 2040 potential based on unconstrained ridership forecast and assumed similar peaking patterns to BART service in San Mateo County. BART provides approximately 3-6 more service compared to Caltrain.

32 Weekend Demand: BART vs. Caltrain Transbay Corridor BART serves about 20-30% of weekend travel on the Transbay corridor, whereas Caltrain serves about 3-4% of travel on the Peninsula 25,000 Caltrain Corridor Assuming similar weekend service to BART, Caltrain may serve approximately 4,000-5,000 passengers per hour during most of the day on weekends 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5, Bay Bridge BART Caltrain US Caltrain Potential

33 Off-Peak & Weekend Service Options Caltrain may serve Early Morning, Midday, Evening, and Weekend periods with various potential service types depending on demand and construction/maintenance needs TPHPD with Local and Express Maximizes mobility by mirroring all-day corridor demand; potential to carry highest mode share Highest operating and maintenance cost Best suited for midday service TPHPD with Reduced Express or Reduced Local - Or - Prioritizes either station coverage or maximizing ridership between major markets Moderate operating and maintenance cost 4 4 TPHPD with Local Only Prioritizes coverage while sacrificing ridership between major markets Lower operating and maintenance cost Best suited for evening and weekend service

34 S H A R I N G S E S S I O N What sorts of off-peak service improvements are most important to your community? Do you have any thoughts about the specific mix of service types and frequencies that would work at different times of day?

35 South San Jose & Gilroy Planning Review & Evaluate Concepts Off-Peak Service Planning Terminal Planning South San Jose & Gilroy Planning

36 What s Different South of San Jose? North of San Jose Corridor between San Francisco and Tamien owned by Caltrain Electrification under construction Caltrain will share corridor with HSR South of San Jose Union Pacific owns existing corridor between Tamien and Gilroy HSR and State of California negotiating with UP 2018 HSR Business Plan contemplates building two electrified tracks alongside non-electrified freight track Creates an opportunity to extend electrified Caltrain service south to Gilroy

37 Opportunities & Constraints Track Capacity is Constrained Caltrain service is limited by operational constraints of a two track corridor HSR plans to operate up to 8 trains per hour, per direction south of San Jose Demand is Unevenly Distributed Southern San Jose stations serve densely populated area with bidirectional demand Morgan Hill, San Martin, and Gilroy serve fewer people with directionally peaked demand HSR provides more competitive travel times between Gilroy and San Francisco/ Millbrae

38 # of People + Jobs # of People + Jobs 2040 Land Use & Transportation Context Indicates a station where substantial growth beyond Plan Bay Area forecasts is anticipated, but not yet approved

39 # of People + Jobs # of People + Jobs 2040 Land Use & Transportation Context Indicates a station where substantial growth beyond Plan Bay Area forecasts is anticipated, but not yet approved

40 Morgan Hill & Gilroy Demand Weekday Demand Caltrain s serves about 2% of existing peak period travel US-101 experiences a morning and evening peak periods, with lower reverse-peak travel Potential 2040 demand of about 1,000 passengers per hour in the peak direction and 500 passengers per hour in the reverse-peak direction Weekend Demand Volumes on US-101 are comparable to weekday periods, with the highest demand between 9 AM and 7 PM Potential 2040 demand of about <500 passengers per hour, per direction 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5, Total Caltrain 2040 Caltrain Potential Total 2040 Caltrain Potential

41 Peak Period Service Concepts 1. Two Track Corridor 2. Conceptual Turn Tracks at Blossom Hill 3. Conceptual Four Track Corridor To San Francisco San Jose Tamien Two Track Corridor 8-12 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 2 TPH south of Tamien except San Martin Capitol Blossom Hill 2. Conceptual Turn Tracks at Blossom Hill 8-12 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 4 TPH at Capitol and Blossom Hill 2 TPH at Morgan Hill and Gilroy Morgan Hill San Martin 3. Conceptual Four Track Corridor 8-12 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 8 TPH at Capitol and Blossom Hill 2 TPH at Morgan Hill and Gilroy Gilroy Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Conceptual 4-track segment or station All scenarios subject to further analysis to confirm compatibility with planned HSR service

42 Off-Peak & Weekend Concepts 1. Two Track Corridor 2. Conceptual Turn Tracks at Blossom Hill 3. Conceptual Four Track Corridor To San Francisco San Jose Tamien Capitol Two Track Corridor 4-8 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 1 TPH at each station except San Martin Subject to further analysis to assess compatibility with HSR service Blossom Hill 2. Conceptual Turn Tracks at Blossom Hill 4-8 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 4 TPH at Capitol and Blossom Hill 1 TPH at Morgan Hill and Gilroy Morgan Hill San Martin Gilroy 3. Conceptual Four Track Corridor 4-8 TPH at Tamien, depending on mainline service levels 4-8 TPH at Capitol and Blossom Hill, depending on mainline service levels 1 TPH at Morgan Hill and Gilroy Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Conceptual 4-track segment or station

43 S H A R I N G S E S S I O N Do you understand the service options shown south of San Jose? Are there particular options that seem better or worse to you? Why?

44 Service Planning: 2040 Baseline

45 Amount of Investment /Number of Trains Context: Different Ways to Grow DRAFT 2040 High Growth Scenarios 2018 Current Operations 2022 Start of Electrified Operations 2033 High Speed Rail Phase Baseline Growth Scenario Design Year

46 2015 Population & Jobs 2040 Baseline Operational Parameters Blended service with 10 trains per hour, per direction north of San Jose (6 Caltrain, 4 HSR) Blended operations with existing/committed levels of Caltrain service assumed south of San Jose (equivalent of 4 round trip Caltrain trains per day) Service Pattern Historically, Caltrain has planned to operate a skip stop service after electrification Emphasizes increasing service for high ridership origin-destination pairs No service differentiation within Caltrain service Blended service planning with HSR has carried forward this concept There is some flexibility in service levels and stopping patterns at individual stations

47 2040 Baseline Service Plan Features Six skip stop patterns with minute run times Most stations receive 2 or 4 TPHPD, with a few stations receiving 6 TPHPD in both directions Schedule varies by direction with 10 minute frequencies at San Francisco and San Jose Passing Tracks Uses existing locations at Bayshore and Lawrence stations Options with Service Structure Flexibility in service levels at individual stations Caltrain Electrification EIR (6 TPHPD) San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Northbound AM Southbound AM HSR EIR (10 TPHPD) 1 San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon 2 Includes minor modifications to standardize Caltrain and HSR service patterns Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon

48 Off-Peak & Weekend Southern SJ/Gilroy Features Same skip stop patterns at hourly headways Most stations receive service every 30 or 60 minutes San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Features Skip stop pattern equivalent to 4 northbound AM trains and 4 southbound PM trains Replicates committed service levels within parameters of new, Blended infrastructure Gilroy Station served by 2 Caltrain trains per hour and 2 HSR trains per hour Connection to Central Coast rail service at Gilroy No off-peak or weekend service south of Tamien To San Francisco San Jose Tamien Capitol Blossom Hill Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Passing Tracks None Options with Service Structure Service levels between Morgan Hill and San Martin could be varied based on further demand analysis Morgan Hill San Martin Gilroy Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon

49 S H A R I N G S E S S I O N Do you understand the 2040 Baseline service pattern shown and how it relates to prior planning work and policy commitments?

50 Terminal Planning Review & Evaluate Concepts Off-Peak Service Planning Terminal Planning South San Jose & Gilroy Planning

51 Proposed Process North and South Terminal working sessions with relevant partner and city staff Define key outcomes and constraints Identify range of acceptable planning-level analysis and assumptions that can serve as basis for continued Business Plan development including completion of service plans, ridership modeling and costing Define operations simulation parameters, methodology and process. Simulation completion required to confirm terminal assumptions

52 Community Interface Assessment Update

53 Business Plan Website is Up! - Project timeline - Project summary - Corridor-wide factsheet - Jurisdiction-specific factsheets - Monthly presentations - Glossary of key terms - FAQs

54 Round 1 Community Interface Meetings Purpose Introduce Business Plan and understand breadth of community interface concerns Attendees City and county staff representing public works, planning, economic development, and city managers offices + Caltrain Community Interface team When September October 2018

55 Community Interface Meeting Results Service Priorities Prioritized Caltrain Service Improvements More Commute Service Increased Frequency Reduced Travel Times Multimodal access Regional Connections Better off-peak service midday/evenings Number Responses Most Important Moderately Important

56 Community Interface Meeting Results Key Themes Service Levels & Schedules Travel demand and mode split goals in relation to existing and anticipated roadway congestion Physical Corridor Grade crossings, grade separations, and the stretches of fencing, walls, and vegetation in between Land Development Placemaking, jobs-housing balance, transit-oriented development, and zoning changes Station Connectivity & Access Local first/last mile solutions, multi-modal access, and equitable incentive programs

57 Next Steps DRAFT

58 DRAFT Next Steps Upcoming Work Finalize recommendations for high growth and baseline growth service plans to be studied further Terminal planning working sessions with Caltrain partners Capital costing, ridership projections and business model integration Ongoing organizational assessment and community interface work

59 Appendix: Land Use Details & Ser vice Concept Stringlines DRAFT

60 DRAFT Land Use Planning Along Caltrain Corridor Station Major Projects Included in Forecasts (Approved or consistent with Plan Bay Major Projects Noted but Not Quantified in Forecasts Area projections) (Not yet approved and potentially inconsistent with Plan Bay Area) 4th & King Central SoMa Plan, Mission Bay & Mission Rock The Hub Plan 22nd St Bayshore Pier 70, Potrero Power Plant, India Basin Hunters Point, Candlestick Point, Schlage Lock, Sierra Point buildout, Brisbane Baylands South SF 6 MSF of approved East of 101 developments and the Downtown Station Area Specific Plan Other employment projects in pipeline such as Genentech Master Plan San Bruno Transit Corridors Plan Bayhill Specific Plan (Youtube) Millbrae Burlingame Station Plan Burlingame Point (Facebook) San Mateo Downtown Area Plan General Plan/Downtown Plan Update Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Nearby TOD projects under construction Bay Meadows, Hillsdale Station Plan General Plan Update, Belmont Village Specific Plan Meridian 25, Downtown TOD projects Redwood City Downtown Precise Plan, Stanford Redwood City Campus Facebook campus expansion in Menlo Park (Caltrain connection via Dumbarton Rail) Menlo Park El Camino Real Downtown Specific Plan Palo Alto Stanford Hospital Expansion Stanford General Use Permit California Ave San Antonio Stanford Research Park redevelopment San Antonio Precise Plan Mountain View El Camino Real Precise Plan, North Bayshore Precise Plan, Moffett Field redevelopment East Whistman Specific Plan, additional Moffett Field redevelopment Lawrence Lawrence Station Plan, City Place San Jose Diridon Google Campus, Downtown Strategy 2040 Morgan Hill Gilroy Downtown Specific Plan Station Plan

61 How to Read a Stringline Shallow lines show slower trains (Local) Distance Steep lines show faster trains (Express) Horizontal lines show station dwell (Time but no distance) Time

62 Zone Express: 12 Trains Features Provides 15-minute service to all stations except Broadway/Burlingame with two semi express zone patterns Major activity centers receive 8 TPH Direct service from all markets to major activity centers, but transfer required between minor stations in different zones Frequency per Hour Passing Track Needs 2 new miles of passing track between Hayward Park to Hillsdale and at a station in northern Santa Clara county (shown: California Ave) Options with Service Structure Each pattern can at only stop at 2 of the 4 stations north of Millbrae Middle-zone train needs to stop at two stations south of California Ave Flexible station overtake location in northern Santa Clara County DRAFT

63 DRAFT Zone Express: 16 Trains Features Provides 15-minute service to all stations except Broadway/Burlingame with three semi express zone patterns (with major activity centers receiving 12 TPH) Direct service from all markets to major activity centers, but transfer required between minor stations in different zones Frequency per Hour Passing Track Needs 15 miles of new passing track: south of Bayshore to San Bruno, mid-peninsula (shown: Hillsdale to San Carlos), northern Santa Clara County (shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View), and south of Lawrence to Santa Clara Options with Service Structure Flexible location for 3 mile passing track in mid-peninsula and 5 mile passing track in northern Santa Clara County

64 DRAFT Local/Express: 12 Trains Features Regional Express serves all Major Activity Centers at 15- minute headways All stations receive local service at 15-minute headways except Broadway and Burlingame Timed local-express transfer at Redwood City Frequency per Hour Passing Track Needs 10 miles of new passing tracks: Hayward Park to Redwood City and northern Santa Clara County (shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View) Options with Service Structure One stop on Express Train between Millbrae and Redwood City One or two stops on express south of Palo Alto Flexible 5 mile passing track location in northern Santa Clara County

65 DRAFT Local/Express: 12 Trains, Less Passing Tracks Features Regional Express serves all Major Activity Centers at 15-minute headways Most stations served by local service at 15 minute headways Closely-spaced mid-peninsula stations served at 30 minute headways (Broadway, Burlingame, San Mateo, Belmont, and San Carlos) Timed local-express transfer at Redwood City Passing Track Needs 3 miles of new passing tracks: Hayward Park to Hillsdale, at Redwood City, and at a station in northern Santa Clara county (shown: California Ave) Options with Service Structure Each local pattern can only stop once Millbrae to Hillsdale Each local pattern can only stop once Hillsdale to Redwood City Flexible station overtake location in northern Santa Clara County Frequency per Hour

66 Local/Express: 16 Trains, Less Passing Tracks Features Local service becomes skip-stop service All stations receive 15 minute headways with major stations receiving 8 or 12 trans per hour Many station pairs require transfer at regional hubs Half of station OD pairs between 22 nd Street and Redwood City are not served at all Passing Track Needs 3 miles of new passing tracks: Hayward Park to Hillsdale, at Redwood City, and at a station in northern Santa Clara county (shown: California Ave) Frequency per Hour Options with Service Structure Generally need each pattern to stop at every other station Pattern overtaken by express must stop at Hayward Park & Hillsdale; other pattern cannot stop at these stations Flexible station overtake location in northern Santa Clara County DRAFT

67 DRAFT Local/Express: 16 Trains Features Complete local stop service Two express lines serving major markets All stations receive at least 4 TPH, with many receiving 8 or 12 TPH Frequency per Hour Passing Track Needs 15 miles of new passing tracks: South San Francisco to Millbrae, Hayward Park to Redwood City, and northern Santa Clara County (shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View) Options with Service Structure Express B pattern must run non-stop from 22 nd St to San Mateo, but has some flexibility in number and location of stops along mid-peninsula Flexible 5 mile passing track location in northern Santa Clara County Passing tracks between Lawrence and San Jose may enhance reliability and save 1-2 min of travel time for HSR and Caltrain (for passengers traveling south of Diridon)

68 F O R M O R E I N F O R M AT I O N W W W. C A L T R A I N. C O M