Caltrain Business Plan. Project Update July 2018 through January 2019

Transcription

1 Caltrain Business Plan JANUARY 2019 Project Update July 2018 through January 2019

2 2 Business Plan Overview Business Plan Overview A Vision for Growth Crafting Scenarios Looking Beyond the Tracks Outreach & Next Steps

3 3 What is the Caltrain Business Plan? What Why Addresses the future potential of the railroad over the next years. It will assess the benefits, impacts, and costs of different service visions, building the case for investment and a plan for implementation. Allows the community and stakeholders to engage in developing a more certain, achievable, financially feasible future for the railroad based on local, regional, and statewide needs.

4 4 What Will the Business Plan Cover? Technical Tracks Service Number of trains Frequency of service Number of people riding the trains Infrastructure needs to support different service levels Business Case Value from investments (past, present, and future) Infrastructure and operating costs Potential sources of revenue Community Interface Benefits and impacts to surrounding communities Corridor management strategies and consensus building Equity considerations Organization Organizational structure of Caltrain including governance and delivery approaches Funding mechanisms to support future service

5 5 Where Are We in the Process? We Are Here

6 6 A Vision for Growth Business Plan Overview A Vision for Growth Crafting Scenarios Looking Beyond the Tracks Outreach & Next Steps

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15 Electrification is the Foundation for Growth with Plans for More

16 2015 Population & Jobs Demand The Caltrain corridor is growing By 2040 the corridor expected to add 1.2 million people and jobs within 2 miles of Caltrain (+40%) 1 80% of growth expected in San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties Major transit investments are opening new travel markets to Caltrain Downtown Extension and Central Subway to provide more direct connections to downtown San Francisco Dumbarton Rail, BART to San Jose, and improvements to Capitol Corridor and ACE to strengthen connectivity with East Bay HSR and Salinas rail extensions to increase interregional travel demand 1 Based on Plan Bay Area forecasts and approved projects by individual cities

17 # of People + Jobs # of People + Jobs 2040 Land Use & Transportation Context 1 million people and jobs within 1/2 mile of Caltrain stations 4.2 million people and jobs within 2 miles of Caltrain stations Indicates a station where substantial growth beyond Plan Bay Area forecasts is anticipated, but not yet approved 17

18 18 Crafting Scenarios Business Plan Overview A Vision for Growth Crafting Scenarios Looking Beyond the Tracks Outreach & Next Steps

19 19 Where do We Start? The Caltrain corridor is not a blank slate Existing Policy Decisions Commitment to a Blended System Primarily a 2-track corridor Planned Projects Stations Connecting services Grade separations Community Acceptability Tangible benefits Mitigated or acceptable impacts Market Responsiveness Origins and destinations Capacity Travel times Coverage Fiscal Reality Realistic scale Value for money

20 20 Planning within Constraints Key Choices and Tradeoffs Service can be improved and expanded but tradeoffs and choices are required across all scenarios. There is no perfect answer. 1. Service Differentiation How can local, regional and high speed services be blended and balanced on the corridor to best serve multiple markets? 2. Peak Service Volume How much growth in peak train traffic volume can the corridor support and what kinds of growth may be required to meet long term demand? 3. Service Investments What types of investments into operations, systems and infrastructure will be required to achieve the desired types and volumes of service?

21 Amount of Investment /Number of Trains 21 Baseline Growth High Growth Moderate Growth 2018 Current Operations 2022 Start of Electrified Operations 2033 High Speed Rail Phase 1 Baseline Growth 2040 Service Vision Design Year

22 2015 Population & Jobs Baseline The Baseline growth scenario includes service assumptions that meet the JPB s existing policy commitments and reflect past and ongoing Blended System planning Operating Parameters Blended service with 10 trains per hour, per direction north of San Jose (6 Caltrain, 4 HSR) Blended operations with existing/committed levels of Caltrain service assumed south of San Jose (equivalent of 4 round trip Caltrain trains per day) Service Pattern Historically, Caltrain has planned to operate a skip stop service after electrification Blended service planning with HSR has carried forward this concept There is some flexibility in service levels and stopping patterns at individual stations

23 San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Tamien Capitol Blossom Hill Morgan Hill San Martin Gilroy Baseline Scenario (6C+4HSR Trains) Service Type Skip Stop High Speed Rail PEAK PERIOD, EACH DIRECTION Service Level (Trains per Hour) <1 Infrastructure Conceptual 4 Track Segment or Station 2 Trains / Hour 2 Trains / Hour 2 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour Features Blended service with up to 10 TPH north of Tamien (6 Caltrain + 4 HSR) and up to 10 TPH south of Tamien (2 Caltrain + 8 HSR) Three skip stop patterns with 2 TPH most stations are served by 2 or 4 TPH, with a few receiving 6 TPH Some origin-destination pairs are not served at all 4 Trains / Hour Options & Considerations Service approach is consistent with PCEP and HSR EIRs Opportunity to consider alternative service approaches later in Business Plan process Passing Track Needs Less than 1 mile of new passing tracks at Millbrae associated with HSR station plus use of existing passing tracks at Bayshore and Lawrence

24 Amount of Investment /Number of Trains 24 Higher Growth Scenarios High Growth Moderate Growth 2018 Current Operations 2022 Start of Electrified Operations 2033 High Speed Rail Phase 1 Baseline Growth 2040 Service Vision Design Year

25 25 Exploring the Potential Long Term Demand for Caltrain Service Using Plan Bay Area numbers for projected growth in jobs and housing, an unconstrained model run of high frequency, all-day BART-like service in the Caltrain corridor suggests that by 2040 there could be underlying demand for approximately 240,000 daily trips on the system 250, ,000 Description 2017: 92 Trains/Day 2040: ~360 Trains/Day 150, ,000 Daily 62, ,000 Peak 50, ,000 Off-Peak 12,000 55,000 50, , 92 Trains per Day 2040, ~360 Trains per Day Peak Off-Peak

26 Throughput Demand vs. Capacity To comfortably serve the full potential market for rail in 2040, Caltrain would need to operate 8 trains per hour, per direction (TPHPD) with 10 car trains or 12 TPHPD with 8 or 10 car trains Seated capacity based on Stadler EMU with different door and bike car configurations. Does not include consideration of potential HSR capacity to serve demand 26

27 27 Service Goals 1. Maximize Ridership With fast and frequent service between major markets 2. Improve Coverage and Connectivity By ensuring that most stations are connected with frequent service 3. Enhance Capacity and Convenience With service that is comfortable and easy to understand 4. Right Size New Infrastructure By investing strategically to provide corridor-wide benefits

28 Screening & Evaluation Results A - 12 Trains Zone Express B - 16 Trains Local/Express (Minimal Passing Tracks) C - 12 Trains D - 16 Trains Local/Express (Expanded Passing Tracks) E - 12 Trains F - 16 Trains Skip Stop G - 16 Trains San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Removed through Screening & Evaluation Process Removed through Screening & Evaluation Process Removed through Screening & Evaluation Process Belmont San Carlos Station service level TBD through further analysis High Speed Rail Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Conceptual 4-track segment or Station Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Assumes standardized HSR service; the 2018 HSR Business Plan expects 2 trains per hour, per direction at Millbrae 28

29 29 Expanding Concepts South of San Jose North of San Jose Corridor between San Francisco and Tamien owned by Caltrain Electrification under construction Caltrain will share corridor with HSR South of San Jose Union Pacific owns existing corridor between Tamien and Gilroy HSR and State of California negotiating with UP 2018 HSR Business Plan contemplates building two electrified tracks alongside non-electrified freight track Creates an opportunity to extend electrified Caltrain service south to Gilroy

30 San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Tamien Capitol Blossom Hill Morgan Hill San Martin Gilroy 30 Moderate Growth Scenario (8C + 4HSR Trains) Local Express High Speed Rail Service Type Service Level (Trains per Hour) <1 Infrastructure Conceptual 4 Track Segment or Station PEAK PERIOD, EACH DIRECTION 4 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour Features A majority of stations served by 4 TPH local stop line, but Mid- Peninsula stations are serviced with 2 TPH skip stop pattern Express line serving major markets some stations receive 8 TPH Timed local/express transfer at Redwood City 4 Trains / Hour Passing Track Needs Up to 4 miles of new 4-track segments and stations: Hayward Park to Hillsdale, at Redwood City, and a 4-track station in northern Santa Clara county (Palo Alto, California Ave, San Antonio or Mountain View. California Ave Shown) Options & Considerations To minimize passing track requirements, each local pattern can only stop twice between San Bruno and Hillsdale - in particular, San Mateo is underserved and lacks direct connection to Millbrae Each local pattern can only stop once between Hillsdale and Redwood City Atherton, College Park, and San Martin served on an hourly or exception basis

31 San Francisco 22nd St Bayshore South San Francisco San Bruno Millbrae Broadway Burlingame San Mateo Hayward Park Hillsdale Belmont San Carlos Redwood City Atherton Menlo Park Palo Alto California Ave San Antonio Mountain View Sunnyvale Lawrence Santa Clara College Park San Jose Diridon Tamien Capitol Blossom Hill Morgan Hill San Martin Gilroy 31 High Growth Scenarios (12C +4HSR Trains) Service Type Local Express High Speed Rail PEAK PERIOD, EACH DIRECTION Service Level (Trains per Hour) <1 Infrastructure Conceptual 4 Track Segment or Station 4 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour 4 Trains / Hour Features Nearly complete local stop service almost all stations receiving at least 4 TPH Two express lines serving major markets many stations receive 8 or 12 TPH Passing Track Needs Requires up to 15 miles of new 4 track segments: South San Francisco to Millbrae, Hayward Park to Redwood City, and northern Santa Clara County between Palo Alto and Mountain View stations (shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View) 4 Trains / Hour Options & Considerations SSF-Millbrae passing track enables second express line; this line cannot stop north of Burlingame Tradeoff between infrastructure and service along Mid- Peninsula - some flexibility in length of passing tracks versus number and location of stops Flexible 5 mile passing track segment somewhere between Palo Alto and Mountain View Atherton, College Park, and San Martin served on an hourly or exception basis

32 32 Developing All Day Service Plans Off-peak and weekend service provides unique opportunities and challenges for Caltrain The Caltrain corridor has very high all-day travel demand, 7 days a week Demand for off-peak service may increase overtime along with corridor development and densities Early morning, midday, evening, and weekend periods all present different challenges and opportunities related to operating costs and work windows for construction and maintenance

33 33 How do we Choose a Service Vision? Choosing a long range Service Vision is not just about picking which service pattern looks the best- it requires evaluating which package of service and investments will deliver the best value to the corridor and the region Service This update describes different illustrative 2040 service concepts that underlie each Growth Scenario. The different concepts shown are not proposals or recommendations. They represent an indicative range of options for how Caltrain service could grow given different levels of investment in the corridor Business Case During the spring of 2019 the Business Plan team will develop a detailed Business Case analysis for each of the different growth scenarios. The Business Case will quantify the financial implications and wider costs and benefits of each growth scenario

34 34 Planning to Deliver How will the Caltrain Organization Support the Service Vision? Key Concept- Service Delivery How Caltrain operates and manages service (both on and off the corridor) Includes activities like train operations, maintenance, capital project delivery, joint development, planning, and budgeting Key Concept - Governance The manner in which Caltrain is overseen by the Board Focus on the agency s decision making process and the Board s oversight of the Caltrain organization Analysis and Outcomes Interviews with stakeholders, organizational mapping and analysis of current Caltrain structure Comparison with national and international peer railroads Understand the range of potential organizational structures for both service delivery and governance and evaluate at a high level Work with JPB and JPA members to determine strategy and next steps Identify near term priorities related to Business Plan implementation

35 35 Looking Beyond the Tracks Business Plan Overview A Vision for Growth Crafting Scenarios Outreach and Looking Beyond the Tracks

36 Direct Engagement with Local Jurisdictions is Central to this Effort 36

37 37 Key Themes From Discussions with City Staff Service Levels & Schedules Travel demand and mode split goals in relation to existing and anticipated roadway congestion Physical Corridor Grade crossings, grade separations, and the stretches of fencing, walls, and vegetation in between Land Development Placemaking, jobs-housing balance, transit-oriented development, and zoning changes Station Connectivity & Access Local first/last mile solutions, multi-modal access, and equitable incentive programs

38 38 Grade Separations are Critical All of the scenarios being considered involve significant increases in the number of trains per hour operating in the corridor The Business Plan will consider the costs and challenges associated with grade separations and improvements to at-grade crossings as part of the overall plan

39 39 Business Plan Website is Up! - Project timeline - Project summary - Corridor-wide factsheet - Jurisdiction-specific factsheets - Monthly presentations - Glossary of key terms - FAQs

40 40 Outreach Activities to Date July December Timeline July August September October November December Local Policy Maker Group City/County Staff Coordinating Group Project Partner Committee Community Interface Meetings (One Per Jurisdiction) Stakeholder Advisory Group Partner General Manager Website & Survey Launch Community Meetings (One Per County) Sister Agency Presentations

41 41 Outreach Activities to Date July December by the Numbers Stakeholders Engaged 21 Jurisdictions 26 Public Agencies 39 Stakeholder Group Meetings 93 Organizations in Stakeholder Advisory Group Public Outreach 18 Public Meetings and Presentations 700+ Survey Responses 2,600 Website Hits 27,000 Social Media Engagements

42 42 Next Steps We Are Here

43 F O R M O R E I N F O R M AT I O N W W W. C A L T R A I N. C O M