Electric vehicles demand forecast. Erwan Hemery and Bruce Smith

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1 Electric vehicles demand forecast Erwan Hemery and Bruce Smith Friday 9 th February

2 Introduction Growing interest in Electric Vehicles (EVs) International developments EVs included in the SoO scenarios Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEVs) PHEV forecasting Form load duration curve for use in GEM Investigate impact on generation build

3 Fleet composition. No of cars per head in NZ.. Cars per head..... x Number of cars No. of Vehicles

4 .9. NZ New Imports PHEV Market Shares. Proportion of sales x Fleet composition Total cars PHEV s. No. of cars..

5 PHEV specifications PHEV range forecast Distance (km) For example: Nissan Hypermini: 9 Wh/km Tesla Roadster: Wh/km Toyota Prius hybrid: Wh/km Wrightspeed X: Wh/km PHEV range Fit PHEV efficiency forecast Wh/km PHEV efficiency Fit

6 Annual distance travelled Total km travelled Annual distance travelled Fit Proportion km travelled by PHEVs Km travelled using electrical mode No. of cars. x Fleet composition Total cars PHEV s... Vehicle-km x e9 PHEV range forecast Distance (km) PHEV range Fit

7 PHEVs Electric demand Forecast PHEVs demand Demand (GWh per annum) Used km travelled in the NZ travel survey to get the proportions of km travelled for each region Demand (GWh per annum) Auckland Bay of Plenty Bunnythorpe Central Hawkes Bay Northland North Shore Taranaki Wellington Christchurch Kikiwa Nelson/Marlborough Waitaki valley West Coast Otago Southland Tiwa Fiordland Forecast PHEVs demand per region

8 Recharging time Demand in Unregulated GW Demand in Average demand over a day in GW..... Hours GW Hours Demand in Hours GW Valley filling Hours

9 Load Duration Curve (LDC) Load Duration Curve - 9 GW Time (/ hour) 9

10 PHEVs Load Blocks Input for GEM

11 PHEV impacts PHEVs No PHEVs Capacity - installed by technology - Demand Side Participation (mds) Capacity - installed by technology - Demand Side Participation (mds) MW Wind Price-responsive load curtailment Peaker, fast start gas-fired peaker Peaker, diesel-fired OCGT Open cycle gas turbine - gas Interruptible load Hydro, schedulable Hydro, run of river Hydro, peaking Geothermal Deficit, energy not supplied Combined cycle gas turbine Cogeneration, other Cogeneration, gas-fired Cogeneration, biomass-fired Coal MW Wind Price-responsive load curtailment Peaker, fast start gas-fired peaker Peaker, diesel-fired OCGT Open cycle gas turbine - gas Interruptible load Hydro, schedulable Hydro, run of river Hydro, peaking Geothermal Deficit, energy not supplied Combined cycle gas turbine Cogeneration, other Cogeneration, gas-fired Cogeneration, biomass-fired Coal, IGCC w ith CCS Coal x Energy by fuel - Demand Side Participation (mds) x Energy by fuel - Demand Side Participation (mds) GWh (Mean over inflow sequences) Wind Other cogeneration fuels Hydro Geothermal Gas Diesel Deficit, energy not supplied Coal Biomass GWh (Mean over inflow sequences) Wind Other cogeneration fuels Hydro Geothermal Gas Diesel Deficit, energy not supplied Coal Biomass

12 PHEVs No PHEVs Emissions by fuel - Demand Side Participation (mds) Emissions by fuel - Demand Side Participation (mds) 9 Geothermal Gas 9 Geothermal Gas Diesel Diesel Million tonnes (Mean over inflow sequences) Coal Million tonnes (Mean over inflow sequences) Coal

13 Vehicle to Grid (VG) VG concept GEM VG has been modelled as price responsive load curtailment from It is only present in the demand side participation (mds) Installed capacity of diesel and gas peakers mds mds - No EVs Storage Peak power Spinning reserve Frequency keeping Capacity (MW)

14 Summary Load Duration Curve - Reasonable to include EVs demand in some SoO scenarios, The Commission has produced an energy demand estimate, The energy demand looks modest ~ GWh in, The recharging time seems to be a crucial parameter VG has been included in one scenario and has the effect of replacing some peaking generation (in practice, by providing ancillary services). GW GW 9 Time (/ hour) 9 Load Duration Curve - Time (/ hour)

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